All posts by Florian Christoph

Photographer & Runner - lives in the land of rain.
Racing Talk

Minding’s back with a Bang!

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No surprise in the first Group 1 of the new flat season: Evens favourite Cloth Of Stars delivered the goods for Godolphin, Andre Fabre and Mickael Barzelona in the Prix Ganay.

Ridden patiently, Barzelona waited for the right moment to make the decisive move. Once in the clear the Son of Sea The Stars powered home strongly. A first success at the highest level for Cloth Of Stars.

But should it have been a first taste of Group 1 success for last years French Derby runner-up Zarak? Probably. Soumillon in the saddle had to sit and suffer at a crucial stage of the race while Zarak finished like a train eventually – unlucky!

No problems for Minding at Naas. She did it as easily as it gets in the Group 2 Mooresbridge Stakes and she clearly has not lost anything over the winter.

She made all from the front and the moment Ryan Moore gave her a little squeeze she stretched swiftly clear. Granted, she was shorts odds-on an clear on the ratings, but still on her return to win so easily is impressive.

Next stop on the agenda is the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Currag. The Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot are most likely the subsequent summer target.

Stable mate Johannes Vermeer finished last but got a very light ride with the future clearly in mind. I expect him to come on quite a bit for a run and would not lose hope in him yet.

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2.30 Brighton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

I look forward to see Equiano son Otomo return to the track as a three year old now dropping to six furlongs for the first time. He showed promise as a juvenile, was twice narrowly beaten here at Brighton, although over 7f, and ended the season with two more decent performances.

In all his races he showed plenty of early pace but did not quite get home, so he looks ready-made for sprinting. An opening mark of 67 seems reasonable, and any age- plus trip related improvement should see him run a big race.

It’s noteworthy that the Hide yard is in good form, with a fantastic record at this track and with Liam Keniry in the saddle. Also Equaino offspring tends to perform incredibly well at Brighton.

Selection:
10pts win – Otomo @ 6/1 Bet365

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4.20 Nottingham: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

Well bred Secret Soul was relatively well fancied in her three career outings so far but despite two decent performances she never came close to win. However it’s fair to assume she simply needed the experience and now going handicapping with a pipe opener already under her belt she could improve.

She is fitted with first time visor as a reaction to her most recent fourth place at Kempton where tried to make all from the front. It may keeps her focused on the job when it really matters.

Given what she has achieved an opening mark of 68 seems slightly on the stiff side. However she ran in and around that level on RPR’s the last two times and clocked fair speed ratings too, so potentially she could be well in, if the combination of experience, race fitness, suitable trip and headgear sees her putting the best foot forward.

Selection:
10pts win – Secret Soul @10/1 Bet365

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6.30 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

If anywhere near full race fitness Brimham Rocks should be able to exploit his potentially very lenient opening mark here. His three maiden runs last year have been nothing of note but they were more of educational nature, over partly wrong ground and trips too short anyway.

H’s been a very late foal who’s sure to improve as a three year old once stepping up in trip, given this well bred son of Fastnet Rock is out of an Oaks trial places mare. So the 1m 4f trip should suit hands down.

Also Brimham Rocks’ sire has a 43% strike rate with offspring at Wolverhampton over this distance. All points toward that this lad is certainly well handicap on his handicap debut.

Selection:
10pts win – Brimham Rocks @ 5/2 Skybet

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9.10 Chelmsford: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 6f

I feel Addicted To You has a pretty good chance to follow up on a recent maiden success over 12f. At Lingfield this Medicean colt made all from the front. He got a bit idle in the closing stage which meant a closer from behind got a bit too close for comfort eventually, but overall it was a convincing win.

Now of a 75 rating he could still be undervalued even more so as he steps up in trip which should suit more than it is a problem. He’s got the profile to improve with age and according to sire stats the 1m 6f trip, particular around Chelmsford, should suit.

Given Addicted To You’s two sisters both achieved RPR’s of 80+ it is fair to assume that he can still find a bit to get off the mark in handicap company now.

Selection:
10pts win – Addicted To You @ 7/2 Bet365

Racing Talk

Blockbuster Monday

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Blockbuster Monday: The Group 1 Prix Ganay at St. Cloud is the headline act, but no doubt most eyes will be glued to the action at Naas.

The County Kildare course has picked up another high quality card thanks to the Curragh redevelopment tomorrow with the highlight no doubt the Mooresbridge Stakes where we gonna see wonder mare Minding back in action!

We know how good she is and therefore even more intriguing could be the return of stable mate Johannes Vermeer. Back after a half year long lay-off – he also had only one run last season – the winner of the 2015 Criterium International is an exciting prospect for the class of the older horses.

Betting wise, though, my eyes turn to Beverley in England. Not an overly exciting card there, however I really fancy one horse over there quite a bit….

 

4.50 Beverley: Class 4 Handicap, 8.5f

There is every chance that the top two in the betting are both on marks underestimating their true class, however Carnageo is a better price and I prefer him given I liked his seasonal reappearance at Doncaster earlier this month. allot

Carnageo won three times last season, though he only got up by narrow margins the last two, still it’s fair to say he improved extremely well during his three year old campaign. His final performance at Nottingham over 8.5f given the form delivered five individual winners subsequently and the runner-up is now 8lb higher rated.

Probably stretching his stamina to the max, Carnegeo travelled well at Doncaster three weeks ago and seemingly came with a big challenge from three furlongs out, however he hit a wall inside the final furlong and was eventually eased.

The drop down to 8.5f should suit and with race fitness ensured he might still be able to pull out a bit more. Only the faster than ideal ground is a real question mark for me.

Selection:
10pts win – Carnegeo @ 9/2 William Hill

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Saturday Tips

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4.40 Leicester: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

I was quite keen on Favourite Royal ten days ago at Wolverhampton but felt she might need the run, so didn’t back her then. Her fast finishing runner-up performance was incredibly eye-catching that day, though, indicating this filly has wintered well and is well able to win a race of her current mark.

She was a very green and raw filly as a juvenile, with a bit of learning and filling of her frame to do. Now as a three year old you would hope that she can still improve a bit and I feel the 2lb added to her rating on the back of the last run might not stop her in a race that should suit.

The bounce factor is a question mark but given she has not a lot of running under her belt yet, this lightly raced filly seems likely to be well handicapped.

Selection:
10pts win – Favourite Royal @ 11/2 PP

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6.50 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 9.5f

Drago seemingly enjoys this track and the unique trip given he has quite a good record around Wolverhampton. He looks improved since fitted with a hood: his last four performances when wearing it were all very decent enough, and he’s only 3lb higher than when winning over course and distance back in November last year.

He already has a run under his belt this season; arguably a pipe opener in a seller. I feel there is a genuine chance that he can still improve a bit over this CD and having a decent 7lb claimer in the saddle should be an advantage.

Selection:
10pts win – Drago @ 9/1 Bet365

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7.05 Doncaster: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

Top weight Mr Davies seems to have a tough task assigned on his handicap debut with 9st 9lb to carry, however this completely unexposed gelding could be on a lenient opening mark either.

He got two runs in quick succession as a juvenile, was then put away and reappeared four weeks ago four weeks ago here at Doncaster over 10.5f in a maiden. From the widest draw he pushed forward, travelled well throughout but was entitled to get tired in the final furlong.

Despite never finishing in the money in three maiden runs his RPR suggest those performances are close to in line with his opening mark. It is reasonable to imagine that this big, scopey gelding can improve for his pipe opener and the step up to 12f for the first time.

Selection:
10pts win – Mr Davies @ 11/2 PP

Racing Talk

Coneygree Superstar!

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The Punchestown Gold Cup promised to be a race not to be missed…. it thoroughly delivered! In a thrilling, head bobbing finish, Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Sizing John got the better of Djakadam and the unbelievably brave Coneygree. What a race it was!

It’s been the cherry on the cake of an unbelievable season for Jessica Harrington and Robbie Power – only a good week ago they also landed the Irish Grand National and of course the big price at the Festival in March.

For me, though, this race was all about Coneygree. He who won the Cheltenham Gold Cup as a novice in 2015, but since then until today had only two more runs due to injuries. After another lengthy spell on the sidelines he returned to the racecouese today and tried it once again his way – the hard way – from the front.

He set a rattling pace, jumped explosive as ever, but got tired in the closing stages – who will begrudge him that – and as a result made a big mistake two fences from home, which ultimately ended his dreams.

Though – and that was what impressed me most – he rallied and battled, fought his way back into contention to be in with a chance jumping the last.

It wasn’t enough, Djakadam an Sizing John battled it out in the final furlong – Coneygree came home one and a half lengths beaten in third eventually. Given the circumstances this was as massive a performance as you’ll ever see. What a superstar Coneygree is!

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1.40 Beverley: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

If it wouldn’t be for apprentice Patrick Vaughan on board I’d say Lawless Louis is a penalty kick in this race. The young jockey’s record on turf is atrocious and even on the All-Weather he’s having a hard time this year so far.

On the other hand he’s got some decent rides for the O’Meara yard over the last couple of seasons and is quite an experienced rider for his seven pound claim, so this allowance might come handy here, actually.

Lawless Louis makes his seasonal reappearance here at Beverley where his trainer has quite a fine record over the years and given he can race off what could easily be a lenient mark I assume he’s ready to go fresh.

He finished a fine sixth in the Listed 2yo Trophy when last season in 2016, which was an excellent performance and in line with some other decent performances where he wasn’t all that far beaten and the form has stand the test of time.

Now as a three year old dropping to 5f again and taking a massive drop in class I feel he has a bit of potential to win one or two races. Certainly the handicapper gives him every chance, and while it is no easy feat as a younger horses against older, seasoned handicappers at this point in the season, I feel he has a prime chance in this particular race.

It’s also noteworthy that Lawless Louis is a full-brother to the decent filly Lydia’s Place who herself was a 89 rated individual at some point in her career.

Selection:
10pts win – Lawless Louis @ 5/1 Bet365

………

Another winner on the board yesterday – okay half a winner! London Master travelled much the best in the 6.30 at Wolverhampton but just couldn’t quite get past the gutsy filly Log Off. He appeared to be in front behind the line, though when it mattered, it seemed to my eyes that Log Off held on.

After lengthy enquiry a dead heat was declared – certainly a result I can live with, giving I though it was lost! And as I backed London Master at 11/2 the night before, even a dead heat resulted in a decent payout!

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Tuesday Tips

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4.25 Yarmouth: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Favourite Wurood looks a skinny price and certainly one to take on at the top of the weights against the boys at the back of a visually fine looking maiden win at Wolverhampton, where, however, she was most likely flattered given she had the run of the race from the front.

I’m much more keen on the equally lightly raced Derek Duval. This son of Lope De Vega was a very late fool and should be open to a good deal of improvement now as a three year old, even more so stepping up to 7 furlongs for the first time.

On his seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton over 6f last month he got off the mark which was only his second career start. He stayed on nicely to win by a close margin, though he was good for more.

On handicap debut a fortnight later he pulled hard in the early stages of the race and was subsequently disadvantaged by his position at the back of the field where he was also forced to race wide. Still he came with a storming run on the outside to finish a close third in the end.

It’s seems obvious that an additional furlong can only be a positive and a 2lb rise in the mark with further natural improvement to come might underestimate Derek Duval, as long as he acts on fast ground turf.

Selection:
10pts win – Derek Duval @ 7/1 Bet365

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6.30 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 1f 103y

Top weight London Master is a full-brother to relatively smart Irish filly Booker good sire by Mastercraftsman. This lightly raced, though winless maiden, has a pretty good chance to can improve this season as a three year old.

In 2016 he had three obligatory maiden runs without setting the world alight –  he was clearly ridden with the future in mind, nonetheless his RPR’s were quite in line with the opening handicap he received for those performances.

And that might ensure he’s potentially well handicapped now moving into Handicap company for the very first time. That is because this colt is quite good looking, with a big, scopey frame to fill, and he step ups in trip which should very much suit given his mother was a winner over 10 furlongs.

He was a January fool, so at this stage as a three year old, also taking the visual impression from last season into account, he should be definitely ready to use his strengths (and hopefully class) to exploit a rating of 60.

Interestingly Jockey Adam Beschizza makes the journey to Wolverhampton for this one ride – probably not for a leisure spin around the track.

Selection:
10pts win: London Master @ 11/2 Bet365

Racing Talk

Crystal Ocean – a Derby contender?

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It’s been quite an excellent week – another one, I dare to say – as Dakota Gold went in at 12/1 and did so in fine fashion. Enjoy as long as it lasts…. desperate times may be around the corner at any given point as the past has taught.

Betting aside, it’s bee a huge day for racing. The jumps still feature big time, despite May only days away. The Scottish National was on the cards today, and one I fancied allot for Aintree, who then fell at the very first fence, made amends here and made it back to back victories in the Scottish equivalent: Vicente!

At Newbury we saw a potential 2000 Guineas contender – a serious one, most likely. Barney Rot looks a brute of a horse and overcame inexperience to score readily in the Greenham Stakes for his daddy Exelebration who himself was runner-up in this race who then went on to win the German Guineas subsequently.

Bareny Rot, though, will run at Newmarket and must be a serious contender if he turns up healthy. He’s now a mere 6/1 chance and should be ready for a step up to the 1 mile trip. That says I remain firmly in the Al Wukair camp, of course!

We may saw a different Classics contender at Nottingham: in the 6.30 Maiden the well fancied Sea The Stars colt Crystal Ocean impressed me with an easy victory in what appeared not a bad race at all. But he did it so nicely, all hands and heels. A bright future lies ahead?

Possibly. He is certainly bred to be a really good horse. Crystal Ocean is closely related to the excellent Crystal Capella and the Derby trial might be next on the agenda now that’ll give us a better idea of how good he really is.

It’s noteworthy that Crystal Ocean is trained by shrewd Sir Michael Stoute who certainly knows how to get one ready for the big day. With a muddy Derby picture at this point in time I’ll do have a small nibble at 40’s – he may not run, but if he does, this price could easily look incredibly big.

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4.55 Navan: Class 1 Handicap, 1m 2f

Prendergast’s Althiba is one who looks ready to step up and take advantage of a fair looking mark after a fine placed effort on her seasonal debut. However I feel the top weight Massif Central could easily do the same but offers much better value at a huge price.

Massif Central ran pretty well in maiden company, achieving mid-80 RPR’s that make his handicap mark appear fair. However on handicap debut which was also his seasonal comeback he started awkwardly and was soon relegated to the back of the field. He didn’t really look comfortable throughout and turning widest didn’t help either.

He still ran better than the bare form suggests, though this looked more like a pipe opener than anything else. On the other hand he seems physically improved. A fine, biggish, scopey colt, who now steps up to 10f for the first time.

Not a given that he stays the trip, but there is a fair chance he does and if that turns out to be true than it is not unreasonable to believe he can improve for his second seasonal run too. If same happens then he could be a bit better than his current rating. Also this is an easier race than the other day plus the better ground should suit.

With a top jockey in the saddle I feel connections expect a big run from this Arcano son – at 12’s he seems quite a bit overpriced in an open race.

Selection:
10pts win – Massif Central @ 12/1 Paddy Power

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Saturday Tips

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4.05 Thirsk: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

I’m quite keen on Dakota Gold here who ran four times as a juvenile and showed plenty of promise when winning a pretty decent maiden at Hamilton following up with a really good fifth in a valuable sales race at Newmarket in his final start in 2016.

Given the three year old Equiano son was a late April foal you would expect him to progress as a three year old He drops in trip today, first time over 5f and that could be exactly what he wants. He has a super draw and might use the bit extra stamina to his advantage with a canny front-running performance?

Interestingly his sire has an excellent record with three year old’s dropping down to the minimum trip. Also on the ratings front he is set up for progress. He already ran to an RPR of 81, so if natural improvement kicks in and he is ready to go on his seasonal debut then a mark of 79 could easily underestimate him.

Selection:
10pts win – Dakota Gold @ 12/1 Bet365

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6.30 Nottingham: Maiden Stakes, 10f

The Sea The Stars colt Crystal Ocean at the top of the market looks really exciting and could be too good for the rest in this field, but the equally very well bred Godolphin runner Forever Song might well be in the same category.

Forever Song is by Dubawi and a full-brother to the very useful Whispering Gallery, a Group 3 winner and rated a 112 on the flat. He was also a very sharp on his debut, winning first time out and subsequently two good handicaps.

This lad has a Derby entry so there is a chance that this debut race is more like an educational run, but I am be rather confident in his sharpness and race fitness given that William Buck heading over from Newbury in the afternoon for this single ride.

Selection: 
10pts win – Forever Song @ 7/1 Bet365

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8.00 Nottingham: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Competitive little race but bottom weight The Big Short could easily exploit a possibly lenient mark here. He showed that he is not useless in a couple of races last season, finishing in the money without winning.

He was, however, a mid-March foal and looked often sluggish with a huge frame to fill that would need a bit of time. He appears scopey and one that will improve as a three year old, no doubt.

There are slight worries about the fast ground and the widest draw, but that aside Franny Norton makes the journey here on his sole ride at Nottingham and he has an impressive strike rate in this scenario.

Selection:
10pts win – The big Short @ 7/1 Bet 365

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The War Front Debate

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Another winner today – though not the one I expected most: Make On Madam landed the odds in the lucky last at Beverly in great style. Compare that to Seven Heavens who finished a slightly underwhelming third in the European Free Handicap.

The Frankel son was taken to post early, looked warm in the preliminaries of the race and then pulled his way through the first couple of furlongs. Given all the hype before the off in all the usual racing outlets as well as on social media, it was a bit disappointing to see him finish with zero left in the tank.

Seven Heavens looks still raw, green and like a schoolboy in first grade who finally has to face the realities of school life. It’ll be interesting to see if John Gosden can get this lad to settle – if he does, then Seven Heavens can still be an exciting prospect for the future.

The winner of the race, though, Aiden O’Brien’s Whitecliffsofdover, already looks a fine prospect. The 2000 Guineas on the radar now? Surely, after this commanding experience. A first time tongue-tie saw him finish the race strongly. He was striding clear in the closing stages, thoroughly enjoying the demanding task the Rowley Mile is.

This son of War Front looks not only quite big and scopey  but has also clearly trained on. Which is nice to see because in the past we often heard something along the lines “War Front’s don’t train on”. Not an unreasonable shout. There is undeniably some truth to it.

Declaration of War, the one example brought up over and over again to demonstrate that War Front can produce excellent older horses indeed, is certainly a valid one, but there is also a fact that – solely looking at UK runners here – performance does drop off dramatically from two to three year old offspring – 26.9% strike rate (55.8% placed) for 2 year old’s versus 11.3% (24.6% placed) for 3 year old’s.

And for the one incredibly impressive winner we saw today, there were two fancied War Front daughters that bombed out in the Nell Gwyn Stakes.

This is a persisting trend year after year and therefore can’t be denied. However there is also the mare that has a role to play and we have seen with The Factor or the mentioned Declaration Of War can be top class beyond their juvenile season.

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4.40 Lingfeld: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

An open and rather competitive race for this grade, though the short favourite could improve yet again after a couple of big performances and therefore might have too much on his plate for this lot.

Nonetheless I’m more interested in potential improver Caledonian Gold. The four year old mare is still without a win, however is totally unexposed over the one mile trip and has dropped to a career lowest rating, despite running to solid form the last handful of starts over shorter trips.

She has tried this sort of trip only once last season when she failed miserably, which was more down to her pulling way too hard in the early stages of the race. She looked one paced over 7f in all her races though, still always running to the line at least, suggesting that now where she is potentially wiser and more mature that she really wants an extra furlong.

The very fact that the dam won a race over 10 furlongs on the Lingfield All-Weather gives enough confidence to suggest that this step up in distance can help. And if it does edge out a bit of improvement then Caledonian Gold could easily take advantage of her falling mark.

The yard seems to expect a performance as the jockey booking of Robert Winston looks significant. A “job jockey” I would call it, he has only two rides on the card, the next one after this race nearly two hours later, and he has a very healthy strike rate for this yard either, suggesting he’s not making the trip in the afternoon just for fun.

Selection:
10pts win – Caledonian Gold @ 15/2 Bet365

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Seven Heavens: Make Frankel Proud

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A son of Frankel that looks identical to his prominent daddy? Yep, that’s right. Seven Heavens, a three times raced colt by the wonder horse looks quite like his father and even seems to have inherited some of his traits, like being a bit overly keen and a habit for pulling hard.

That doesn’t make Seven Heavens a less exciting prospect to look forward to when he goes to post on Wednesday in the European Free Handicap over  7 furlongs at Newmarket – the place of Frankel’s arguably most “WOW” like performance.

While Seven Heavens is not the favourite in the race, he is the least exposed in the field. How good he is remains to be seen, of course, but he certainly created  a big impression on debut putting away subsequent National Stakes third Lockheed.

We didn’t learn allot about him in his next two starts: at Goodwood in a 2-runner race he made clearly no mistake against a rival now rated in the 70’s, while in the Racing Post Trophy he pulled his chances away, so that form is one to excuse I suggest.

There is a fair chance that Seven Heavens will be a much better three year old given he was a very late foal, nonetheless looked  strong and scopey as a juvenile. His trainer concluded on that matter:

“He did well to race three times as a youngster as he was a late foal.”

And there is Frankel, the father, who has made a tremendous start to the year with his first three year old’s hitting the race course – albeit only on the All-Weather so far.

But that could be a key indicator: last season not a single of his two year offspring got even placed on the sand, whereas this season an eye popping 50% of 14 starters ran into the money for an impressive 36% win rate. Interestingly the overall SP’s stayed basically the same, so his sons and daughters were not simply better fancied than last season.

I suspect this Listed contest might only be a stepping stone for Seven Heavens. He’s from an excellent family non only on the sire but also the dam side suggesting he and can step up in trip.

But I’ve no worries in terms of race fitness here, though. John Gosden said this race was the early season target for quite some time. And that makes sense. This is a real test against fine opposition.

Selection:
10pts win – Seven Heavens @ 7/2 Bet365

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5.45 Beverley: Class 4 Handicap, 7.5f

Plenty unexposed individuals lining up here. Fahey’s Areen Heart could be too good if improved over the winter while the Shamadal filly Salamah deserves another chance, particularly at this course where her daddy has a tremendous record.

However I take a chance with race fit Lualiwa. This lad progressed nicely as a juvenile and his 2l beaten fourth in a hot Doncaster nursery on Handicap debut looks particularly strong form given the winner is now a 101 rated horse.

Lualiwa returned at Chelmsford last month in a rather poor maiden. He did no make a mistake, though. Storming out of the gates to make all from the front, travelling super strongly and putting the race to bed easily.

His current mark of 79 could underestimate him taking into account his juvenile form and strong visual impression last month. He’s expected to improve as a three year old and is a nice scopey type.

Selection:
10pts win – Lualiwa @ 6/1 Paddy Power

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6.20 Beverley: Class 5 Handicap, 8.5f

Bottom weight Make On Madam must have a tremendous chance to get up in this race. Her win record isn’t all that impressive and her record over this sort of trip isn’t either. However she’s going really well at this track, runs consistently well off higher marks here and won of 1lb higher last season a 7.5f Handicap at Beverley

On fast ground – which is fine for her – she has probably a pretty decent chance to stay the trip from a good draw, even more so in a slightly easier race, here against her own sex.

She had an excellent pipe opener last month at Newcastle over 7f too, finishing third, when staying on strongly in the end. With age she simply might have a bit more stamina than before.

Selection:
10pts win – Make On Madam @ 13/2 PP

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Another nice winner today. Bushel got up at 13/2 advised. It was a real thriller but thankfully Bushel found enough in the closing stages to get his head in front when it really mattered: on the line!

It didn’t quite end that way for Majestic Hero, who was headed in the dying strides of the race, denying us the double at tasty odds of 12/1.

Racing Talk

Our Duke bolts up in Irish National

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What a monstrous performance by Our Duke in the Irish Grand National this afternoon. Sensational! This lad has the WOW factor. He was one of three on my shortlist but he was a short enough price given what he did up until now, but you have to say after this performance he actually was a huge price! well hindsight is a beautiful thing….

Anyway, Our Duke was able to track what appeared to be a pretty decent pace, took matter in his own hand from quite a way out and still had a lot left in locker when it mattered most. A potential Gold Cup horse? Absolutely!

It clearly puts the icing on the cake for the winning trainer Jessica Harrington and jockey Robbie Power – both teamed up only a month ago to land the Gold Cup at Cheltenham!

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2.10 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 3f

A really poor race in terms of form, though some may find back to their best at a track they ran well in the past. The one most likely to do this is Bushel in my mind.

He is a course and distance winner of a much higher mark. Given he is a son of Street Cry this is no surprise as he has a tremendous record with his offspring at this track.

Bushel hasn’t been winning since 2015, however ran with credit a handful times on turf last season, suggesting he is still not as far of his best, however big marks caught him out. Putting in a couple of stinkers his mark has dropped rapidly to a lowly 57 now.

That comes as a result of 15l+ beaten fifth in a 14f Handicap at Southwell last month. However pretty much no other rival was able to cope with the very well handicapped winner either. It came also over a trip that clearly stretched him.

In fact he was assisting the pace early on and travelled pretty well for most parts but fell apart over 2f out. The drop to 11f will suit and the additional 3lb off the handicap mark will certainly help too.

Selection:
10pts win – Bushel @ 13/2 Paddy Power

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5.05 Newmarket: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

It will be interesting to see how this pans out pace wise with a split not impossible, despite only 11 runners, but I feel the low numbers are more likely to dominate and should be an ideal scenario for Majestic Hero who could be towed in to take it up when it really matters.

He won two races last year, including here at Newmarket and ran with plenty of credit in many more. His form tailed off toward the end of the season after a long campaign, though.

He clearly prefers this type of undulating tracks and acts very well on faster ground, so conditions should be ideal, A mark of 88 is fair judged on what he has achieved and if he can run to this rating here he must go very close with Jamie Spencer taking the ride as he did last year when these two teamed up to land the Newmarket race.

Jamie Spencer, often slated, is however clearly a bonus in the saddle, given there aren’t many that ride this course and distance better. Also Majestic Hero goes well fresh.

Selection:
10pts win – Majestic Hero @ 12/1 Bet365