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Betting

Lincoln Preview

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3.35 Doncaster: Lincoln Handicap, 1m

The addition of Chazzesmee adds significant intrigue to the race. He won the Irish Lincoln in brilliant style on Monday, and looked like a horse with a bit in hand.

He confirmed the promise from last season, especially when last seen back in July in a hot Premier Handicap at the Curragh where he was arguably unlucky not to get closer to the eventual winner, or in fact even win.

A 5lb penalty looks generous, given once the official handicapper takes his chance to reassess, it should be quite a bit more than that for this ever improving gelding.

He looks drawn possibly quite well – certainly more favourable, I believe, than current favourite Liberty Lane. The lower toward the middle numbers may well be favoured according how I read the pace map feel this race could develop from a pace perspective.

Chazzesmee may well be towed into the finish where he will enjoy the likely fast pace and showcase his ability to change gear even on this deeper groun.

The thing that puts me off him, beside the price that’s too short for me in such a competitive race, is the fact that he’s always enjoyed frequent breaks between his races. Back to back races in such short space of time is unchartered territory. Not a risk worth taking at 4/1 in my mind.

I quite like Liberty Lane. An unexposed but progressive handicapper. He could definitely improve for having been gelded. One can forgive the final run in 2023. Before that he achieved a career-best landing a good Doncaster Handicap, including a strong 92 speed rating.

At 9/2 one can make an argument that he’s even a fair price. But the draw is not ideal, I feel. Drawn in #20, he may not be ideally positioned in the closing stages or has to do a lot in the early stages to avoid getting trapped wide.

2022 winner Johan goes extremely well fresh. He won another valuable Handicap after a break last season, and is a key contender, although he must defy a 106 mark, which is not easy in such a competitive renewal of the Lincoln.

Mr Professor off 92 could be dangerous. He’ll love this ground and the likely fast pace. He’s one of the bigger prices that Intrigues me.

But the one I’m most interested in at what I feel appear quite generous prices around 20/1 on the exchanges, is for the Johnny Murtagh horse Blues Emperor.

Probably not the most talented individual in the field I think off 97 this improving gelding may have a bit more to offer, though.

He improved with nearly every run in 2023 – the only truly poor showing came in his final outing in 2023, at the end of a tough campaign, which was also Listed race at quirky Listowel, and quite odd the way it panned out.

Prior to that he finished a neck beaten runner-up in the Irish Cambridgeshire, ran with plenty of credit in a hot Galway Handicap, won on Irish Derby Day a competitive Premier Handicap and defied top-weight at Naas.

The 5-year-old gelding clearly acts on soft ground. He stays a mile. Although, the combination of a fast pace and deep ground will stretch his stamina to the limit.

On the other hand, his #10 draw offers every opportunity to be in a good spot, closer to the front of the pack. I suspect it might be difficult to come from off the pace here. He likes to lead but has shown that he can track a pace closely as well.

In any case Blues Emperor is a genuine horse with a great attitude. He’ll put his head down and will run his race more likely than not. That may or may not be good enough. But you’d think Johnny Murtagh will have the horse ready to go, given Blues Emperor also performed well as a fresh horse in the past.

10pts win – Blues Emperor @ 20/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 22nd March 2024

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7.15 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

I’m more than happy to take on Glamourous Express who’s turned out under a penalty here after an impressive victory at Kempton last week.

Hugh Taylor seems sweet on this lad, and that’s something to be taken seriously. But off 67 today, over 6f, he’s vulnerable. He’s never ran a significant speed rating beyond the minimum trip to suggest he’s well-handicapped in these conditions.

Captain Vallo could be interesting if there’s a generous pace today. But better days may await for such scenario. Water Of Leith is one to fear in this grade. But at current prices I’ll take a punt on Dream Together off bottom weight.

This is his third run since coming back from a long enough break. He ran better than bare forms suggest in his two starts since then and showed a solid attitude, suggesting there’s life.

The pace scenario will suit today. He should be able to to just sit off The Gay Blade and hopefully can kick on from about 2f out. I can see a scenario play out where he could be hard to beg back with his low weight if he can get separation from the main pack.

Dream Together’s All-Weather record is poor. However, he ran 51 and 54 speed ratings last year over this course and distance. He’s allowed to run off 51 now, a career-lowest mark on sand.

That gives him every chance to outrun his price tag today, at the very least. He should be well placed when it matters most.

10pts win – Dream Together @ 10.5/1

…….

7.30 Dundalk: Handicap, 1m

Intriguing and rather competitive race. A bunch of these met a over the last weeks, hence plenty of collateral form exist, for what it’s worth.

I think not too many will be in this to win tonight, though. Shoot To Kill ran with plenty of promise on his debut for the McGuinness yard. He may find an easier race soon, is my feeling.

Rampage looks in good form and his finish here two weeks ago was noteworthy. He has a tough Irish Lincoln run in his legs, though.

Rockbury Lad impressed visually and on the clock over this CD two weeks ago. Betting suggests today isn’t his day.

Skontonovski will be in the mix, but doesn’t appear overly well-handicapped. Neither – certainly not over this trip -looks favourite Exquisite Acclaim, who is in strong form, but has to defy a high enough handicap mark as a result.

The standout for me in this field is the aptly named Not Forgotten. He caught the eye a number of the times this winter on the Dundalk polytrack.

He remains on the same 79 mark after a strong 3rd place effort two weeks ago over this course and distance.

As often before, he wasn’t the sharpest away from the gate but made rapid progress soon after, and that may cost on the day vital fuel that was missing in the final furlong.

The 4-year-old travelled notably well, though, and made smooth progress from 4f out. If only he could get out of the gates a tiny bit better and perhaps keep his focus in the closing stages.

Good news, the visor is on. That appears the right move and could help him to find the necessary couple of pounds improvement tonight. He’s generally still low enough mileage in handicaps to hope for a little bit better.

Off a 79 handicap mark there is plenty of room for one or two more wins in him, given his profile.

10pts win – Not Forgotten @ 4/1

Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham 2024: Gold Cup Preview

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Twelve months ago I was very much in camp Bravemansgame and adamant that Galopin Des Champs isn’t nowhere near as good as the hype surrounding him.

In 2024 I’m no longer in camp Bravemansgame. It’s obvious by now that he’s not the same horse that finished a brilliant runner-up last year. He could still run well, but he’ll have to improve on anything he’s shown in three starts this season so far, to be in with a realistic shout to win the race – which looks a deeper renewal, too.

Galopin Des Champs? Can’t have him, once again. Races aren’t run and won on spreadsheets. But the fact remains the reigning champion has rarely convinced on speed ratings, with the Gold Cup a significant outlier across 17 career runs in my book.

Saying that, if taken last years Gold Cup victory at face value, the 7-year old gelding appears even more unbeatable a year later, especially after two visually impressive wins in his last two starts. But is he?

He was beaten twice after the Gold Cup and looked a mere mortal, unlike previously. The two subsequent visually stunning performances came in races that were run to suit him perfectly, I believe. Based on speed ratings they haven’t been impressive at all, though.

I’m left with the impression that a strongly run Gold Cup, on testing ground, will see Galopin Des Champs vulnerable to a stronger stayer. This scenario may play out this Friday. If he’s ridden handily, as he was the last few times, close to what could be a pretty good pace, on soft enough ground, he could burn through his energy reserves earlier than expected.

That poses the question: who’s the strong stayer good enough to beat the red hot favourite?

The ground may well have turned against Hewick. He may not even run, if trainer Hanlon is following through on his words leading up to the Festival. But I’m not sure he’d be good enough to win, in any case.

Corach Rambler, in contrast, is sure to run and to finish strongly. The Grand National hero and multiple course winner should have a proper shout, I reckon. The race could pan out perfectly for the 10-year-old.

It’s hard not be drawn to his sensational victories in the Ultima Chase, especially given the way he’s done it and the depth of the 2023 renewal.

He may need to improve a bit, though, given this is the classiest race he ever contested. Not impossible that he can raise his game in these circumstances.

But he’s a 10-year-old. He’s not exactly unexposed. How much more improvement is there to come?

I’m still trying to work out L’homme Presse. Undoubtably a talented individual, threatened to progress to the level required to be considered a proper Gold Cup horse. He’s got course form, and looked strong over shorter 2m 4f on his reappearance. Not so good the next time and I remain not fully convinced that he’s quite good enough in this grade.

Fastorslow should be the key rival to Galopin Des Champs, given he beat him twice at Punchestown in the last 12 months. However: those wins came in different circumstances.

Punchestown in April, at the end of the season, over 3 miles on yielding ground, and 2m 3.5f in the John Durkan at the start of a season, are hardly comparable to the Cheltenham Gold Cup, in my mind.

The supposedly “natural order” was assumed in the Irish Gold Cup in February this year. Fastorslow jumped well and ran an excellent race, but was unable to quicken and follow Galopin Des Champs’ acceleration, ultimately.

It’s clearly possible that the Gold Cup trip in combination with a good pace can bring out additional improvement. For all that, on speed ratings Fastorslow hasn’t convinced yet, and all those points combined make him a short enough price.

Price is everything: by pure process of elimination I’ve come to the final conclusion there’s only horse offering value in the betting and upside form wise.

That one horse is Gerri Colombe. The eight-year-old gelding, trained by Gordon Elliott, remains low mileage and has a strong 9-7-2 record under rules. He was only beaten at the Festival last year and when last seen in the Savills Chase.

Hitting a flat spot before the run-in cost him the race in the Brown Advisory twelve months ago. He stayed on incredibly strongly and one or two strides after the line hit the front. Would, could, should….

But it’s clear the step up to the Gold Cup distance will suit this strong stayer tremendously. That he can finish with zest and do it in a Grade 1 was evident when he won the Champion Chase at Down Royal thanks to an incredibly gutsy performance.

I’m prepared to forgive the below-par Leopardstown run, when runner-up behind GDC in his latest start. Something looked amiss that day.

If one is prepared to ignore that run, and believes he’ll have benefitted from a break since then – which his record fresh indicates – it’s hard to look past Gerri Colombe at the current prices. He’s got to improve, but has the profile of a horse who’s capable of doing so, especially with conditions most likely to suit.

10pts win – Gerri Colombe @ 10.5/1

Edit: I should have checked the market before sending this post. Having written it earlier today and having backed Gerry Colombe in the morning I missed that Hewick is out and the market reacted. GC is now about 8/1 (9.4 on some exchanges).

Still a more than fair price in my view, as I maintain he remains one of the prime contenders in the race. Though, I’m always aiming for transparency, so just thought to make this clear when having quoted a price in my preview that’s not a true reflection at his point any longer.

Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham 2024: Tuesday Selections

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3.30 Champion Hurdle, 2m½f

The race hasn’t been blown wide open with the absence of Constitution Hill. Instead State Man has simply replaced the champion as the new red hot favourite.

State Man is now as short as 1/3 with the majority of bookies. Is that a slight overreaction to the supposed fact that there’s not (even potentially) meaningful opposition to the reigning Irish Champion hurdler?

No question, State Man is a seriously talented AND consistent horse. Unbeaten for two years – with the exception of a highly credible runner-up performance in the 2023 Champion Hurdle.

Trained by Willie Mullins, of course the 7-year-old gelding is the likeliest winner. Yet, there’re a couple of reasons that could spoil the Mullins party on Tuesday, at least in the Champion Hurdle:

State Man hasn’t quite wowed me yet on speed ratings. His two Cheltenham performances are good, and clearly the success in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown rates strongly as well, also on the clock.

Perhaps, trying to find holes in the form, it’s nitpicking, but he may have benefited from circumstances in those races, and the overbearing feeling for me remains that the vast majority of his performances don’t scream “unbeatable”, like a 1/3 shot would suggest.

The pace in the Champion Hurdle will be interesting to see how it develops. State Man may have to do the “donkey work” for himself. He usually races right up there and has made the running in the past. Hence this isn’t a negative per se. But it may offer some others to stalk and pounce in his shadow for a turn of foot – because this could easily develop into a sprint finish.

Of course all that only matters if there’s any meaningful opposition. With that in mind, I think there could be two horses offering enough upside at this point of their careers to hope that they can make this a race for State Man.

Irish Point is an intriguing runner. The drop in trip may not be a problem if the ground remains soft, though the potential lack of pace is a concern. Perhaps that could temp connections to deploy front-running tactics?

There were occasions when Irish Point made all, notably when he landed a Grade 3 as a Novice last year at Naas over 2 miles.

The Gordon Elliott trained gelding seems as rock solid an each-way shout as you could find, if eight runners go to post. He should be a bit shorter, in my book, than the current prices.

The one I’m most intrigued by is Nicky Henderson trained Iberico Lord. Supplemented at the cost of £18k, he’s no Constitution Hill, but certainly a promising horse on an upward trajectory.

Ground is key for the 6-year-old gelding: it should remain soft enough for him to be seen to best effect on Tuesday, given the current weather forecast and latest going readings.

Iberico Lord remains low mileage with plenty of upside: 7-3-1 over hurdles, and 2/3 this season – a lacklustre effort in December had been put firmly into the rear mirror thanks to a big performance in the Newbury Betfair Hurdle last month.

That was only a Grade 3, and he’s got to step up significantly to have a real chance in a Champion Hurdle. Nonetheless, that level of performance puts him right in the picture here IF he can continue to improve.

The way he quickened at Newbury from three out was seriously impressive, in my view. He did it easily enough in the end. That form looks strong, franked through some of those behind in the Imperial Cup last weekend.

Another positive can be taken from his course and distance win back in November. He clearly relished the hill that day.

Stable form is an obvious concern. Nicky Henderson’s loss of form, and the issues with his stable star, have been widely documented. In contrast Willie Mullins seems to to win everything these days. State Man will be 100% ready. Let’s hope Iberico Lord is ready to rock as well.

Even without the stable form question to be answered, Iberico Lord has to improve a whopping 26lb on Official Ratings. Although, with natural progression that isn’t impossible.

This is going to be his first crack at Grade 1 level. And on speed ratings things look quite a bit closer. Therefore, a gap of 1.37 to 14.5 seems huge…. and too big.

10pts win – 13.5/1

……

4.50: Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, 2m½f

As the nature of this race goes, it’s wide open. A case can be made for plenty to be in with a chance, and/or somewhat hidden to protect their mark in the past just waiting for a looseningof the handbrake.

This may be one where the home team has a chance, but the away side could have the edge once more.

Joseph O’Brien’s Lark In The Mornin makes plenty of appeal – surely he’s got tons of unseen potential to offer, waiting to be unleashed on Tuesday. I’m not fond off the price, though.

The De Bromhead yard seems to hit some form, finally. The lightly raced filly Nara is an intriguing runner if she can settle in the hood. She looks a free sort and a buzzing Cheltenham remains a worry.

The market hasn’t missed Milan Tino, who looks on a decent opening mark, neither does the market takes any chances with top-rated Liari and Ndaawi.

One I’m interested in, but thought the price may go the wrong way for me, has been available at surprisingly generous prices this afternoon, though: Martin Brassil trained Ose Partir could be seriously dangerous off 126 on his handicap debut.

The bare form this year reads quite poorly on the surface. However, there’s more to it than naked numbers. The French recruit was keen in his first starts and raced in hot waters lately.

This is perhaps easier than the Grade 1 at Leopardstown last month. He jumped alright for most of the race, made a bit of progress from the rear of the field from four out before fading away, without getting an overly hard ride.

Ose Partir seemed to settle better and travelled well enough. I quite liked his run over Christmas as well where he made even more eye-catching progress toward the backend of the race.

He was a promising three-year old on the flat in France before switching to the Brassil yard. A winner on his racecourse debut, and fine second in a subsequent conditions race behind a winner who locked horns with Big Rock and Ace Impact subsequently.

His Irish debut was eye-catching too, as he was quite keen and was a bit unfortunate in the closing stages, finishing a gallant runner-up without being asked for everything.

In any case, Ose Partir is one to keep an eye on even if he finds this contest too hot in the end. If he’s ridden off the pace he’ll need some luck too. But the likely rattling pace and big field could help him to settle and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a significantly improved performance.

10pts win – Ose Partir @ 15.5/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 11th November 2023

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Bit of an unlucky spell right now. Haworth Star beaten in a photo. Probably was ahead right behind the line. Bunch of good runs for my selections lately, half of them placed, but no wins to show. Agonising.

Especially when you leave some unbacked that turn out to win…. the normal ups and downs of betting, I guess. A winner would be nice, though.

……

6.30 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

A weak contest and a weak favourite. I can’t have Cavalluccio in this race at all. Even though he seems to go better after a wind op, he still has to find something on speed ratings and isn’t exactly unexposed after 21 runs.

In contrast, I love the look of Blue Yonder dropping down to class 6, with the visor added, from a good draw, in a race with little pace to fight off in the early stages.

The gelding ran with plenty of credit this season, and his last two runs confirmed he’s back to his best, in my view.

He finished 9/12 last time at Newcastle but travelled well for most of the race in a competitive affair where, perhaps, things didn’t quite work out with the way the race ultimately developed. It was a better performance than the bare form suggested, though.

Prior at Wolverhampton he was only beaten in a tight finish, where the ride he received versus the rider the winner received made all the difference. With that in mind, off the same mark today, he is well-handicapped in my view.

That’s without taking into consideration a better jockey booking today and a pace scenario that will ensure Blue Yonder can move forward and be in the right spot throughout the race, which will surely be up with the pace.

He won twice earlier this year, up to 10 furlongs on soft turf. So the trip isn’t an issue. He also won on the sand over 9.5 at Wolverhampton, and was subsequently only a neck beaten at Weatherby off 69 where he achieved a 72 speed rating.

Blue Yonder seems equally as effective on sand as on turf, and that’s in line with the observation that a mark of 67 is probably lenient as this point in time.

10pts win – Blue Yonder @ 15/2

Uncategorized

Friday Selections: 10th November 2023

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6.20 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Competitive affair. Comedian Leader looks possibly overpriced back over this course and distance but the way the pace shapes and the new headgear combination is a worry for me.

Favourite Capuchinero won last time out with a bit in hand. A 5lb penalty makes life much harder, though. She never won off such a high mark and has to improve on speed ratings a handful of pounds too.

Haworth Star is the one most intriguing. Drawn wide, perhaps away from where the race develops in a slowly run race isn’t ideal one would think.

But making a move on that far side from a wide draw seems not too detrimental at Newcastle at all, so possibly negates conventional wisdom.

In any case, the lightly-raced gelding shaped like he’s significantly ahead of his mark when third at Wolverhampton last time out. The handicapper took notice and gave him a 2lb rise for the effort. Probably not enough.

That day he wasn’t quite the sharpest early on from gate 7, pulled quite hard in a tight and compact field as he tried to settle riding against the inside rail off the pace.

Yet, approaching the home straight he was still on the bridle, although he equally had a lot to do from the back of the field. He made strong progress, finding gaps as they appeared, without ever getting a smooth and clear run.

He appeared awkward and possibly intimidated in a tight finish deep inside the final furlong. Though, it was quite tight and the race was over at that stage no matter what, I reckon. Haworth Star also managed to run to a 61 speed rating, despite in less than ideal circumstances here.

Big odds suggested there weren’t high hopes riding on his back that day or eleven days earlier on handicap debut. The improvement from that Leicester run off a small break as well, was noteworthy in its own right.

Today is an easier race. This is only his third run in handicap company. This straight track may suit better than the ever turning Wolverhampton. He finished the strongest last time out, despite meeting trouble. So the stiff 7f could be exactly the test he wants, as long as they don’t crawl, which is a risk, truth told.

10pts win – Haworth Star @ 11/2

Betting

Thursday Selections: 9th November 2023

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8.00 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Crystal Dawn looks seriously well-handicapped in this poor field today as she drops in class and drops down to her most recent winning mark after a seriously noteworthy lto run.

A fortnight ago at Wolverhampton the mare wasn’t the sharpest at the start and subsequently wasn’t helped by a mad keen rival who kept her on the outside.

As a consequence she travelled wide throughout the race, although seemingly going strongly approaching the home turn. The jockey made zero attempts to actually improve position, though, and started riding when it was way too late.

She wasn’t expected in the betting on the day at all. So no surprise to see her finish the way she did. However, she did ran a number of solid races this year, suggesting there’s some mileage left.

Crystal Dawn is now down to a 53 rating, the same she won off last September over this course and distance, and subsequently off 3lb higher at Wolverhampton as well.

The help of a solid 7lb claimer is an added bonus today. Without a doubt she’s a real standout chance here in this poor 0-52 contest, a much easier race than the one she contest the last two times.

Cheek pieces are added and help, hopefully, with sharpness out of the gate, with the aim to utilise the #3 draw to best effect.

10pts win – Crystal Dawn  @ 7/2

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 8th November 2023

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4.20 Dundalk: Handicap, 1m

Garrick Painter goes back over a mile after two highly encouraging efforts at Dundalk since he moved to Ireland.

He’s been claimed last month on the back of a strong effort over 10 furlongs. From a wide draw he moved quickly forward to get to the front and the stayed for a long time to finish second.

That performance was very much in line with his previous eye-catching run over 7f, on his Dundalk debut. There he utilised a low draw to best effect but also made a lot in front.

He remains still lightly enough raced and these two runs are in line with some of his best efforts, as he ran to 72 and 79 speed ratings last year in the UK on the All-Weather.

Todays looks an ideal scenario, if new connections want to win. 1m should be his optimum trip. He’s got a low draw in a race that lacks competition for pace.

This natural front-runner should be able to dominate and get the run of the race, which often is an advantage at Dundalk.

10pts win – Garrick Painter @ 15/2

……..

8.30 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Competitive little race, but how’s the pace? Not too many obvious front-runners who are sure to move rapidly forward and set a strong pace here.

I feel those from wider draws have a chance. That brings King Of The Jungle into the mix, who was an eyecatcher last time out, but from #12 may find a way to get beat for these connections, hence another day may be more likely to see him run to form.

The one who makes plenty of appeal from the wider drawn horses is Bluebells Boy. He caught the eye twice now in the space of a month at Chelmsford.

Two back it was a massive effort from the widest draw when he only got caught late off his current mark. Last time up in trip, it was a somewhat unfortunate day in the office.

He was a bit awkward soon after the start, keen in the early part of the race when restraint off the pace. His jockey still took a pull 4f out as he travelled notably strongly into the home straight, where he met all sorts of trouble and had no chance.

Bluebells Boy was well-backed the last two times and looks seriously competitive off this mark, especially as he ran to a 56 speed rating back in July this year, and his two recent runs suggest he’s up to that level of performance still.

10pts win – Bluebells Boy @ 7/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 6th November 2023

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1.30 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

A muddling pace scenario could open up this contest. However, there are clearly three standout candidates in this field, who’d fight it out, as they are all drawn well enough to expect them not to be too far off the pace.

Island Of Sky, who ran to consistent speed ratings the last two times that’ll see him go close if he can repeat that level of performance with new headgear added.

Curtiz is down to a seriously dangerous mark, having shown glimpses of form when last seen after a long absence. He’ll improve for the run.

The one I can’t leave unbacked, though, is Wake Up Harry – not at these prices. There’s a risk attached given he’s a bit on the drift this morning. Maybe the brakes are slammed once more…. but if not, he should run away with this, I firmly believe.

Down to 0-62 level, a 59 handicap mark, and a seriously strong lto run in the book, Wake Up Harry looks ripe to let lose off a #1 draw to run this field into oblivion.

He’s one who caught the eye last winter, but missed to win. However, last time out over the same course and distance, he caught the eye in no uncertain terms.

A wider than ideal draw didn’t help early on, with indecision by the jockey coming at a cost for travelling widest, before moving forward and taking up the lead around the bend.

Obviously he made too much too soon, using vital energy in the first half of the race, hence it wasn’t a surprise to see him fade away rapidly in the home straight.

One could argue Wake Up Harry never convinced fully on sand. However, he remains lightly enough especially over the mile trip, where spots a 6-1-3 record on the All-Weather.

There’s a danger that he’s beaten for speed today. He may want a little bit further. On the other hand, the draw provides every opportunity to make most of the likely lack of pace, and he can simple move forward and could be hard to catch.

10pts win – Wake Up Harry @ 6/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 4th November 2023

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2.50 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Doesn’t look a strong race and the likely absence of any significant pace will give some suspect stayers of this distance a chance to get home stronger than usual.

One that fits into this category is Media Guest. The move to a new new yard is a bit of a question mark, but the 5-year-old looked in fine form when he caught the eye over this course and distance only last month.

He travelled quite well on the inside for a long time, still on the bridle upon entering the straight. There were moments you thought if he gets a clear run he can win. But he didn’t get out, was short of room multiple times.

The race was way too hot as well. Hence the drop into 0-65 appears significant today. The gelding has a poor win record, however would have a second W to his name if not having been demoted at Chelmsford earlier this year over this distance.

Generally, 7f stretches his stamina to absolute maximum. With the pace probably not overly hot here, he has every chance to get home, though, especially against much easier opposition off a career lowest mark.

Of course, Media Guest may be a bit keen in the early parts, if the pace is slow, and it’s probably down to solid 7lb claiming Liam Wright to make smart decisions as soon as the gates open.

Drawn in #4 he’s got plenty of options, and the most intriguing one would be if he bounces out of the gate to attack the race from the front. Media Guest is at his best if racing prominently, at the very least, so the setup looks perfect for him to simply move forward and do his own thing, if nobody else wants to do it.

He’s stone cold in the betting this morning. I guess the direction of the odds may tell us whether he’s on a going day…. saying that, this race looks like served on a plate for him to grab by the horns. So here’s hoping for a strong performance.

10pts win – Media Guest @ 8/1