Tag Archives: Musidora Stakes

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 15th May 2024

Leave a comment

3.45 York: Group 3 Musidora Stakes, 1m 2.5f

This doesn’t look an overly deep renewal of the Musidora. Perhaps we said the same last year, when Soul Sister romped home? That was quite the day to celebrate for me… good old days.

Today I’m yet again keen on finding a way to get the favourite beat. For all that it doesn’t appear to be an easy task: Friendly Soul clearly is a filly with an abundance of talent. This daughter of Kingman slaughtered her rivals in the Pretty Polly Stakes ten days ago and achieved an excellent 98 speed rating that day as well.

Can she cope with the step up in trip today? The pedigree gives her every opportunity, though, she showed plenty of pace and may have to do the ‘donkey work’ today once again. On the other hand, Gosden’s have a tremendous record in this race.

Given we only have seen her twice so far, it’s hard to know where her ceiling is. The same can be said for a couple of other fillies in this field, at this stage of the season, and I’m always prepared to take on an odds-on shot, especially if there’s a meaningful alternative.

I’m especially intrigued by Mayfair stepping up in trip. I’m keeping an eye on the daughter of Justify since her eyecatching debut at Galway last August.

That was a pretty strong maiden with four subsequent winners, including recent Salsabil Stakes runner-up Purple Lilly. Mayfair did plenty wrong that day, and has continued to appear learning on the job ever since.

Her seasonal reappearance at the Curragh caught my attention once again. She was up with the pace, always in the headwind without cover, and that performance warranted an upgrade, given the winner was well covered throughout.

The form isn’t anything to shout about, and it was disappointing to see Mayfair getting beaten at Dundalk the next time, albeit by a potentially smart filly in Star Magnolia.

Mayfair is a full-sister of 104 rated Unless, a progressive 3-year-old last season, who improved with experience and who won a Listed race over 10 furlongs, plus was a fine runner-up in the Group 3 Royal Whip next time.

Unless did her best work on decent ground, and you would hope Mayfair can improve for better ground today as well. So far she raced only on heavy or on the sand. Showers are rolling on through Wednesday at York but shouldn’t turn the ground soft.

To my untrained eye Mayfair never looked like a filly with the speed and gears for 7 furlongs. It’s a gamble to move up right away to the Musidora trip, but it’s probably now or never for her to prove that she’s at least as good as her sister.

She should certainly improve for the recent racing experience, should strip fit, should enjoy the ground, the new trip looks a possibility on pedigree, and the race, if you’re prepared to take on the favourite, wide open.

10pts win – Mayfair @ 8/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 18th May 2023

Leave a comment

14 losers on the bounce. Then came Soul Sister. She romped home in the Musidora on Wednesday and made a mockery of the 21/1 odds on offer.

A winner I needed to get back into green for May, which looked rather dismal up until the moment Frankie Dettori pressed the button on the filly as she accelerated and dipped bellow 11 seconds to storm home.

Chinthurst ran a solid race at Bath to finish 4th. Ultimately he wasn’t good enough. Will need to review the race again before making a decision whether he’s one worth persisting with.

……..

3.35 York. Group 2 Dante Stakes, 1m 2½f

This looks a hot edition of the Dante. I really like Epictetus and not just because he’s written one of my favourite books… the philosopher, not the horse, that is.

Epictetus is the only colt in the field with a 100+ speed rating to his name. Not sure he wants to much further than 10 furlongs. This additional half furlong may be too far, ultimately.

The experience and stamina of Flying Colours looks interesting, as long as he trained on, as he also ran to a 98 speed rating last year. Lightly-raced Passenger, Canberra Legend and recent Ballysax winner White Birch offer plenty of upside.

The one I’m incredibly keen to see for a while now is also finally making his belated seasonal reappearance: Continuous.

He’s one of my 3-year-olds to follow and certainly one of the more intriguing ones. And how could it be any different with his pedigree.

 A son of Japanese sire Heart’s Cry – who was a winner of the Sheema Classic in 2006 – out of Fluff, which was down to pure chance because the mare was supposed to be covered by Deep Impact, who sadly passed away right before she arrived in Japan.

Continues is the only son of Heart’s Cry actively racing in the UK and Ireland (possibly Europe) right now. His sire is well known for stamina in Japan, having sired Japan Cup winners and other multiple international top-class horses over middle-distance top-class .

He won well at the Curragh over 7 furlongs when he made all on his racecourse debut as he kicked on over 2 furlongs out to achieve an 80 speed rating as well, which confirmed he’s possibly a smart one.

Continuous went on to win a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud over a mile. A gutsy performance in a slowly run race that didn’t suit him. I loved the attitude he showed in those first two career runs.

There no doubt in my mind he’ll improve moving up in trip and with age. Therefore 10.5f won’t be an issue. Neither should be track. He strikes me as a relentless galloper, who should enjoy York.

On the other hand the ground is a question mark. His juvenile form came on deep ground and he seems to hit the ground hard enough. It’s also a concern that he makes a belated seasonal reappearance. He was supposed to start much earlier, but Aiden O’Brien is on the record that he needed time.

How fit is Continuous here? I reckon they wouldn’t bother travelling over, as well as him as the sole entry for the Dante, if he wouldn’t be ready to go.

He’s doesn’t have an entry for the Derby, though. It’s Ascot and the Irish Derby as well as the Eclipse. That worries me less. Because he’ll have to run well enough to take up those entries.

Ryan Moore didn’t sound too excited about this lad for the Dante when asked. So there are enough negatives to leave him alone. On the other hand, the price is silly, as there’s enough to believe he can outrun these odds easily given his pedigree, the talent he showed as a juvenile.

10pts win – Continuous @ 11/1

…………

6.55 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

This could be the opportunity connections have been waiting for with Lord Rapscallion. It looks a perfect race for a number of reasons.

For one, his latest effort in a hot class 2 Handicap over this course and distance doesn’t read too well on the surface; however, one can easily argue he ran well, and perhaps even outperformed market expectations given he was only 4¼ lengths beaten as a 22/1 shot.

He travelled well for a long time and didn’t fade too badly in the final furlong, either. This is clearly a horse in good form. He was, though, outclassed.

This here is much, much easier. From 0-105 down to 0-80 level. Prior to this he showed a clear uptick in form at Chelmsford last month as well. it was a good run there, one that was an improvement on anything he showed since winning back to back in December.

He won off 76 and 80 then, and it’s looks significant that he dropped town to his last winning mark now again. He’s probably a little bit better on turf, though. He ran twice to speed rating 84+ last year on turf over 7 furlongs, which means he’s got a bit in hand, possibly.

Lord Rapscallion may prefer the July course over the Rowley Mile, but as mentioned earlier, he looked solid over this CD recently, and with the drying ground expected, shouldn’t have an issue to act here.

The race may develop in an ideal way for him as well. There is plenty of pace on. He is at his best when he can closely follow a good pace. That’s scenario is given here and he sees out the trip strongly, even can win over a mile.

10pts win – Lord Rapscallion @ 9/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 17th May 2023

Leave a comment

3.35 York: Group 3 Musidora Stakes, 1m 2½f

A competitive renewal of the Musirora Stakes. Gather Ye Rosebuds looks potentially smart having run to a serious speed rating on her debut about three weeks ago.

But I’ll stick to Soul Sister, one of my Horses to Follow this year, despite a desperate seasonal reappearance, last month at Doncaster.

That run looks bad. But it can be totally ignored, in my view. The deep ground, 7 furlongs, her first run for the year. All came together and worked against her.

This daughter of Frankel should very much improve for better ground and as she moves up in trip.

Keeping that in mind, the more it looks impressive what she did on her sole run as a juvenile last year on soft ground over a mile at Doncaster.

That day she showed a superb attitude and staying qualities on her debut as she stayed on strongly to get up in the dying strides in a head-to-head battle.

She possesses a lot of stamina and will have no issues stepping to 10 furlongs, and possibly beyond. Her full-siblings have been pretty smart in their own right as well.

I am more than happy to give her ‘another’ chance, even though I had no interest to back her in the Fred Darling. I feel this is her first proper race this season and she is clearly overpriced.

10pts win – Soul Sister @ 21/1

……

8.10 Bath: Class 6 Handicap, 10f

Chinthurst is one of those handicappers I’m following this year as I believe he could have quite a bit in hand once he races over the right trip.

I was taken by his seasonal reappearance at Windsor last month in seriously deep ground. He travelled pretty well for a long time before he fell away badly to finish a long beaten 4th.

But this was a strong race, he may have needed it in any case, and there’s every chance he can improve from the outing and enjoy the better conditions today a bit more.

He also steps up in trip to 10 furlongs, which is most likely to suit. He’s a son of Nathanial out of a Dylan Thomas mare – you can be almost certain he’s going to improve as a 3-year-old and as he moves up in trip.

With that in mind, I felt what he did as a juvenile warrants respect and proved there is possibly more ability than his current lowly rating suggests.

After three unremarkable qualifying runs, he improved markedly on his Handicap debut and final run in 2022 at Brighton over 7 furlongs.

There he found himself multiple times outpaced but kept showing a positive attitude as he finished well up the hill and achieved a 53 speed rating.

The performance warrants an upgrade, as the form has worked out well in the meantime, and he’s rated only a pound higher today.

The wide draw and large field are a small concern. I also wouldn’t hope the ground dries out to anything beyond good. At given prices, and granted he’s been drifting, it’s worth taking the risk here.

10pts win – Chinthurst @ 7/1

United Kingdom

Wednesday Tips – Musidora Stakes

Leave a comment

4.05 York: Musidora Stakes (Fillies’ Group 3), 1m 2f

On paper it is hard to oppose exciting Shutter Speed on the back of a very impressive performance at York last month. Form that also worked out extremely well with the 3rd Enable winning the Cheshire Oaks subsequently.

However with the ground easing and further rain on its way it might be a little bit more an open contest than the odds-on price tag for John Gosden’s filly suggests, mainly because Jim Bolger brings an intriguing contender in the name of Vociferous Marina over.

This girl has put the “wow look” already twice on my face in her  young career. That was last year at the Curragh when she cantered all over the field to produce a stunning turn of foot to win a 7f maiden.

And that was at Navan in the listes Salsabil Stakes last month when she looked still a bit green and raw but once in the clear power home in tremendous style from the back of the field which in turn earned her a higher speed rating than the one Shutter Speed – albeit eased down in the final 100y – in her last outing.

Vociferous Marina clearly responded for the step up in trip after she bombed out on her seasonal debut run, though she was a big drifter on that day and things went clearly not her way.

She has shown in the past that cut in the ground is not a problem, so the soft conditions won’t bother her I suspect. She clearly is a big danger to Shutter Speed in my book as the turn of foot she has shown on two occasions now looks quite special.

Selection:
10pts win – Vociferous Marina @ 5/1 Bet365

……

5.25 Yarmouth: Class 6 Handicap, 6 Furlongs

The jockey booking is eye-catching for handicap debutante Frank’s Legacy. De Sousa in the saddle for trainer Ivan Furtado yielded in significant success in the past – this is in line with a very intriguing runner in this race.

This Aqlaam gelding didn’t show allot in three maiden starts, however stepping up in trip to 6f on his handicap debut should suit allot. His opening mark does not look overly harsh and gives him every chance.

The draw is potentially not ideal, however if Frank’s Legacy is as well handicapped as I would believe then it does not matter. He certainly has scope to improve, given Aqlaam offspring tends to progress significantly with age and experience.

Selection:
10pts win – Frank’s Legacy @ 5/1 Skybet