8.15 Kempton: Fillies Handicap (Class 4), 7f

Milady could be too good if she stays the trip, which isn’t unlikely, but given the prices I feel fellow three year old Cascading is better value. She has been in excellent form in recent weeks, without getting her head in front. When last seen here at this scene, albeit over 1m, she looked the winner one furlong out, just to get a bit tired and get beaten by a shoulder eventually.

I’m not 100% whether she really has the speed required to win over 7f, but it is worth dropping back and try as despite a revised mark, she could still be well in, particularly in a race like this today, where most appear exposed.

Cascading can race as the bottom weight, and it should help going head to head with her own sex this time too. From a good draw, she should be in the perfect spot when it matters and it’d be disappointing if she isn’t in the money at least, given she finished only once in seven starts on the AW outside the placings.

Cascading @ 13/2 Bet365 – 5pts Win

Boooom! Saumur get in – 16/1 SP – finally something to celebrate again. It has been a bit of a struggle in recent weeks as anyone knows who follows this blog. But those kind of winners are more than consolation. It could have been even better Dutiful Son did a really good job in the feature event, but just had a bit too much to do. A really interesting contest that was and I feel Windy Citi and Exchequer are the two to take out of the race as they didn’t have the clearest of passages.

7.40 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

It’s a poor enough contest and that may enable to weight Pretty Bubbles to overcome a big mark, but I’m surprised to see 3yo old Little Prairie available at 4/1 with StanJames, which surely is at least a full point too big. She didn’t run her race in tough conditions event at Leicester the last time – but that against much better opposition, not favoured by the weights at all – a performance to forgive.

She is better judged on her impressive maiden win at Lingfield. She romped home from the front that day. She got lose easily in a decent enough field. First time in a Handicap now, she can be capable of overcoming an opening mark off 81, particularly against this opposition here. Not saying she is a banker, but she is certainly the most likely winner and a big price for that.

Little Prairie @ 4/1 – 10pts Win

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8.10 Kempton: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Yeager is a massive price here judged on his strong penultimate run. He’s on the same mark when finishing runner-up behind Fire Fighting. A form that works out really well. The drop to 1m shouldn’t really be a problem, neither should be the All-Weather. He has been runner-up in a hot race off a lb higher mark last year at Lingfield over 1m.

He hasn’t won since his days as a three year old and that is a concern. But he raced subsequently of mid 90 marks in very competitive races and has shown here and there some good form. He’s dangerous today I feel.

Yeager @ 20/1 Coral – 5pts Win

4.15 Kempton: Class 3 Handicap, 7f

This is an intriguing contest with a handful of promising contenders. Dramatically improving Ian’s Memory tops the market and despite not being flashy, he may just does enough to win and could still have more to offer. Though the handicappers doesn’t take any prisoners with him.

Exchequer loves the All-Weather and the track. He’s consistent. This big, scopey gelding should make good of a perfect draw. Claim The Roses ran a massive race the last time behind subsequent Great St Wilfrid Handicap Don’t Touch. I’m slightly concerned about his wide draw though.

Windy Citi won with bit in hand the other day, the drop in trip shouldn’t be a problem. Lightly raced Mulzamm will appreciate this trip more than 6f on pedigree. Whether he is good enough against this field remains to be seen.

Most of those mentioned above are decent prices. Hard to distinguish them. The one certainly overpriced is Dutiful Son, though. Well bred, impressive 6f winner at Chelmsford in April, he was not seen to best effect over 1m the last two starts. Way, way too far off the pace on his penultimate run, and also not in the best position the last time when third behind Windy City. The trip may also stretch him.

The drop to 7f looks ideal, however and I would assume him to be ridden much positive from a healthy draw. It’s Nicky Mackay’s only ride on the day – it could be a good one.

Dutiful Son @ 16/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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4.45 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

Melodica may well have too much to offer for this lot but it is such a poor race hat I feel it is worth to side with bottom weight Saumur who has the chance to improve for the new trip big time. She looked one-paced in her last two starts over 10f but did reasonably well considering the horses she competed against.

On pedigree she should really relish the 12f distance and won’t mind the All-Weather surface. It could bring out enough improvement to see her go close in this field off her light weight.

Saumur @ 12/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win