4.10 Chelmsford: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
Competitive race, both favourite Bosham and Jorvik Prince, who was a bit unlucky not complete a four-timer at Lingfield last time out, should go really close. Question is, given they have a lot of mileage on the clock, how much more improvement can they eke out?
Lightly raced Jack The Truth is the intriguing contender in this field I am keen on. He hasn’t ran a single bad race in five starts; despite the main body of form coming at Southwell, he also proved to be capable on other AW surfaces.
He already won twice at Southwell this winter; his 5f success on handicap debut was an impressive performance, he followed up subsequently with an even better effort when third in a 6f class 4 Handicap. From a wide draw he came across and was up there with a hot pace.
As the only one from the front trio, he kept going in the closing stages to finish third eventually, whereas winner and second came from the back off the field to stay on. This already works out a good piece of form.
Jack The Truth remains on the same handicap mark, a 73 rating he matched on TS figure on his penultimate run. Dropping back to the minimum trip and down to a class 5 contest, he should be ready for a big performance from a fair draw.
10pts win – Jack The Truth @ 9/2 VC
8.15 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m
The favourite Able Jack looks hard to stop given he’s potentially gotten away lightly from a handicapping point of view for his latest success. However, same could be said about still rather lightly raced Shadow Warrior.
The gelding has been progressive since being gelded and switched to handicaps; he’s been outside the top three only once in his last six starts.
Dropped to a mile last month at Lingfield, he travelled well and finished strongly with a bit to spare in a hot contest, despite coming from off the pace which was not ideal in a rather start-stop run race.
A four pound hike in the mark seems more than fair, and despite a step up in class, he looks open to further improvement over the mile trip. Also this latest form has worked out well already. With a good draw and Kirby in the saddle again, Shadow Warrior should go really well here.
10pts win – Shaddow Warrior @ 9/1 GB
There is a lot going on today – a massive racing day. Top class action wherever you look and I put out a good handful of previews and selections over the last 24h. As an overview:
All-Weather Saturday Selections
Pegasus World Cup Preview
Sun Met Preview
1.55 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 7f
Six year old Frozen Lake hasn’t exactly been firing for his new trainer yet, however, he has plenty going for himself today and could be hard to stop if he hasn’t went sour. Clearly, the son of Elusive Quality deserves his chance in this open, yet very winnable race.
Frozen drops down to a career lowest mark as well as for the first time into a class 6 Handicap. This is the easiest task he faced ever and while his latest forms aren’t reading well, still, his March 2017 run here at Chelmsford over a mile is a very strong piece of form on offer.
A return to anything near it will see him winning easily today, given this is an easier race, he’s 9lb lower and has the aid of a red hot 5lb claimer on board.
The gelding has one issue: the start. He often rears and is on the back foot right away. That can be a problem here at Chelmsford where the kickback can be severe in my opinion.
Nonetheless, he could have too much in hand to use his stamina to pick up one after another in the home straight and hopefully gets there when it matters most.
10pts win – Frozen Lake @ 6/1 Bet365
Happy new year! May 2018 be a successful one! In personal life as well as in the world of betting.
2017 didn’t close out with a bang. Brother Tiger, my very last selection in the now old year, ran a blinder, finished 2nd, though lost the race at the start when falling out of the gates. Onwards and upwards…
4.10 Newcastle: Class 4 handicap, 1m
First bet in 2018, of course on the All-Weather – five year old Waarif, with a first time visor applied, fits the profile I am looking for in this race.
Since moving to the O’Meara yard he hasn’t exactly set the world alight, after winning a maiden in Ireland at the third time of asking. However on ratings (RPR & TS) he’s ran well enough, suggesting there is a win in him off his current handicap mark.
An issue has been a habit of bad starts lately. It’s a risk today once more. Here’ hoping the new head-gear fitted can rectify this problem.
Dropping back to a mile, with a good draw in a winnable race, the combination of tongue-tie and visor may be the slight change needed to see Waarif get over the line again.
10pts win – Waarif @ 9/2 Bet365