Tag Archives: Guineas

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Guineas Weekend Review

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The flat season is well and truly alive! Not only that, but time moves quickly and we now have also the first Classic of the new season behind us! So let’s quickly recap on what happened over the last weekend….

Gleneagles’s a proper miler…..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVQF_Md-dLU

Isn’t he? You couldn’t say anything else after an impressive display over the Rowley Mile on Saturday. Yes, he had pretty much everything going for himself. Perfect draw, ground to suit and gaps opened when you would have wanted them to open for him.

Says he got an inch perfect ride from Ryan Moore and had the class to take advantage of the gaps when it was most needed. He romped home, stayed strongly the new trip and the 2¼ lengths winning margin is a fair reflection of how much better he is than the rest. For the moment at least.

Gleneagles


No excuses for…..

Estidhkaar! Yes, it probably was an advantage to be in the stand side group, but no, that isn’t an excuse for his flat performance. Hanagan hard at work from over three furlongs out – Estidhkaar was simply not good enough.

My assumption proved right that the Greenham result was a rather freakish one, and I find it amusing that connections now try to blame the quick Newmarket ground on his poor Guineas performance, when he performed so well in blistering quick conditions at Newbury before.


Ivawood and The Brave One….

Ivawood - 2000 Guineas

There were plenty of horses a bit unlucky of not getting the best of runs in the 2.000 Guineas. But two individuals do stand out for me in terms of proving a point:

Ivawood clearly stayed the trip and his third place is a very strong result given the fact that he didn’t have the benefit of travelling in the favoured stand side group. Only two horses from single figure stalls finished in the top eight eventually – he was the best of them.

Ivawood was gutsy and showed loads of talent, while not having quite a smooth ride as he had to angle out and fight for his gap. The Irish 2.000 Guineas is next on the agenda for him where he’s going to take on Gleneagles again. He may be able to finish closer then.

Home Of The Brave is an unlikely eye-catcher but in fact he was a strong one for me. He set a true pace for the stand side group and was there till the final furlong marker but didn’t quite see out the trip in the end.

He still finished a good sixth for all of that and he may can win a less demanding pattern race over a mile with an easy lead, or probably preferably, would be dropped back to 7f. He clearly confirmed that his fine victory in the Free Handicap (Listed) was no fluke.


Telescope finds a way to get beaten… again!

Telescope

He was the short priced favourite in a four runner affair and looked certain to win the Jockey Club Stakes. But he got beaten – once again. Probably Ryan Moore let him loose a bit too early, yet he should have been good enough to fend off Second Step.

In his last seven starts Telescope was either short favourite or joint favourite. He won only one of these and becomes an expensive commodity to follow. Bookies on the other hand are likely to erect a statue for him.


Twilight Son is Pattern Class….

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It was only a Handicap, but it’s also been only his third career start. Twilight Express was impressive to win the 6f sprint for three year old’s. Particularly in the way he did it.

This race resulted in the fastest finish on the card and Twilight Son ran just 12.18s for the concluding uphill furlong.  There is clearly much more to come from this Kyllachy son.


Legatissimo a legitimate Oaks favourite!

David Wachman’s filly stormed home to land the 1.000 Guineas in some style. Though this may be a slightly disappointing result for the fillies’ mile division – as she is clearly not a miler but very much a middle-distance horse.

Many of the better fancied fillies didn’t handle ground or trip or track or all of that combined. But you can’t make excuses for everything and personally I’m slightly disappointed with the race. Lucida is potentially the one to take out of it, though. She got hampered at the start and ran out a nice second place.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuuDtiLACdY

Legatissimo on the other hand came into this race on the back of a Listed success over 9.5 furlongs. So to see her romping home in the way she did, dropping back to a mile, was impressive and says allot about her individual class, but also about the lack of class of most of her rivals in the field.

Anyway, she is obviously a very legitimate Oaks favourite now. On pedigree she is entitled to stay thus far, no problem. Out of a Montjeu mare, you would hope that there is more to come once she steps up in trip again.


False Rail is a positive move….

Newmarket Rowley Mile False Rail

Admittedly, the newly introduced false rail didn’t prevent the field from splitting into two groups in the 2.000 Guineas, nonetheless it is a positive move and I would hope this experiment will continue. More tracks should follow suit.

Why? Because it helps to prevent horses from finding themselves short of room on the inside rail when coming from off the pace. It works at Dundalk rather well for example, where this was a huge problem for many years before the introduction of a false rail.

It also works well in other racing jurisdictions. I In this context I always like to point to South Africa where false rails are a common theme at every track. It makes for fair and exciting racing more often than not. There is no reason why it shouldn’t be in place over here as well.


Tiggy Wiggy….

Impressed me in the 1000 Guineas. She performed much better than I would have thought. Positive tactics and fast ground helped her to get home rather well over a trip that stretches her stamina to a maximum.

She’ll be reverted back to sprinting now and will be a force in that particular division this season I’d reckon.


Personal Experience….

National Stud

It’s been the second year running that I went over to Newmarket to witness the 2.000 Guineas. Becomes a bit of a tradition now?! I really like the Rowley Mile. It’s a nice track, good facilities, good viewing (if binoculars on hand) and despite a huge crowd on Saturday, it never felt uncomfortable at all. Perfect!

Took in this time also some proper sightseeing as I already arrived on Friday. Walking up the legendary Warren Hill was quite an experience. Knew this place only from the comfort of my couch and TV. It’s really steep, isn’t it?!

Next stop was the National Stud. Said hello to Toronado and Dick Turpin and rounded up the day with a beautiful walk along the July Course and the Rowley Mile in splendid sunshine. Saturday followed the Guineas – it’s been fantastic I have to say.

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All Photos Credit: Florian Christoph

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Exciting Intilaaq good enough to win Guineas

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Wide open renewal this year – a shame that my long term ante-post pick Highland Reel isn’t going to run. So I had to look for an alternative. I felt seriously tempted to take the 7/2 available for Gleneagles this morning. He was so much shorter earlier the week, but has now been pushed out to an attractive looking price.

Gleneagles has been a brilliant, precocious juvenile, a winner of five of his six career starts. His trademark turn of foot saw him beating good rivals in in multiple Group races, including the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh – the top 2yo race in Ireland.

He’ll be primed for the race today. It is his big target and he should have a good chance to go close. That says later the year I would expect others to improve past him. And what about today? Well, I feel already in this Guineas field there might be enough rivals able to improve to a level close- if not better. He can be beaten and after all he is a fair price, but there are alternatives.

Stable mate Ol’ Man River is equally a very attractive prospect. He is out of a 1.000 Guineas winning mare. Question mark is his sire: Montjeu. His offspring usually doesn’t quite excel over 1m at the highest level. At 8/1 I can oppose him.

Estidhkaar is the hype horse. I know many like him – I don’t Personally I can’t believe his recent strong seasonal reappearance in the Greenham until confirmed again. Today is his chance to do so. That race was a strange one and I thought he doesn’t look like one likely to improve an awful lotfrom what he has done as a juvenile. The jury is out on him today.

I’m not sure if Ivawood truly stays the trip. He finished okayish in 3rd in the Greenham but more is required here. Elm Park has the Derby on the forefront of his mind and conditions today may not suit.

The one I feel is really overpriced is the exciting Roger Varian inmate Intilaaq. Lightly raced – he had only one start as a juvenile, and repapered at Newbury last month for his second career outing. Always in front, he set a frenetic pace and produced a dramatic turn of foot to win easily. Albeit only a maiden race, ordinary horses don’t do that.

This was a mightily impressive performance and he is bound to improve quite a bit. He is lovely bred and should be able to progress with time and age. That’s what his pedigree is pointing to. It’s a tough ask nonetheless for an inexperienced horse to go to Newmarket and try to win a Guineas. That days Intilaaq seems to be an extremely talented individual and he has a better chance of winning the race than his price suggests.

3.45 Newmarket: 2.000 Guineas
Intilaaq @ 11/1 PP – 5pts win

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Azmaam’s overpriced in Newmarket Stakes

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Newmarket Rowley Mile

With Aiden O’Brien’s Aloft out, this looks a strange little race. Nothing really sticks out and everything depends on the potential improvement to come from each individual runner. That says on pure form I believe Azmaam is hugely overpriced. This lightly raced Dark Angel colt is bound to run a big race!

His three year old campaign started in the 200k Tattersalls Millions over course and distance last montj. Azmaam was a fair juvenile but went with clear doubts about his stamina into this race. He travelled like a dream though, but didn’t get a run whatsoever until the final furlong marker when he got finally into the clear, albeit only briefly, producing an instant turn of foot which looked like to be a decisive move, just to run out off room again soon after.

It’s fair to say that with a clear run he probably would have won. The winner of the race went on to finish a creditable runner-up in a Group 3 subsequently, so this form looks not a bad one at all.

Same conditions here for this 1m 2f contest at Newmarket and Azmaam must have a big chance to win this if he is in the same kind of form and can get a clearer run this time.

Newmarket Stakes (Listed), 1m 2f
Azmaam @ 7/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Hakam has the edge

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Usually I avoid maidens like sprouts – but I’ve to make an exception here. The favourite Akeed Champion showed clearly promise last season and may well develop into a nice horse now as a three year old. The Fahey yard goes extremely well and for that simple reason you’d assume Akeed Champion is fit and well. But his two year old form is nothing out of the ordinary and the fact that he beaten a short favourite on his second start means he could be vulnerable today.

The Godolphin newcomer Gossiping is an interesting individual, considering his fine pedigree and the strong form of the yard. The Richard Hannon trained Acaster Malbis has experience on his side but appears exposed.

Interestingly, beside the favourite, only Charlie Hills’ inmate Hakam has a future big race entry (2.000 Guineas). The War Front son cost almost half a million US$ as a yearling and he’s obviously well bred and related to some fine horses. What I particularly like is the fitness edge. He started his campaign in a Lingfield maiden last month, when he finished 2nd, beaten in a photo and showed loads of greenness.

Hakam looks a big, strong individual with plenty of scope and should have learned plenty from his debut. The switch to turf should be no problem, nor the good ground. Since he is related to some fine turf horses, one would think he may turn out to be nice horse. If he’s a Guineas horse is another question, but on balance I feel he is overpriced in this field, where not too many horses make much appeal.

1.45 Newmarket: Hakam @ 7/2 Bet365 – 5pts win 

Global Racing

Flat Horses To Follow

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The start of the flat season is looming…… the ‘real’ start I mean! Yes, the Doncaster Lincoln is the traditional kick-off, but let’s be honest, the focus is still very much on the jumps – thanks to the all overshadowing Grand National. However you’ll see, time is flying.  A blink of an eye later and horses are already thundering down the Rowley Mile at Newmarket on Guineas weekend!

That is reason enough for me to write down my personal “Flat Horses To Follow List”! I have worked myself through a large list of horses in recent weeks – to be more specific: I’ve been actually assessing the more or less promising two year old colts and geldings of the 2014 season. Based on that, I’ve come up with a 12 To Follow list…..

I know, everyone is coming up with ten to follow these days – that’s why I have twelve horses on my list! … Well, no. To be honest, I just couldn’t endure the pain to cut down the list to ten.

Archangel Raphael – 2 Starts, Aiden O’Brien

This lightly races son of Montjeu was unlucky not to win on debut but made amends at the Galway Festival. He looked pretty green on both starts and was outpaced halfway through but was particularly impressive on his second outing when he had many negative factors to overcome but won in the manner of a talented individual. There’s bit lack of stamina on his dam side, but 1m 2f should be possible for him. Much further looks unlikely.

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Christophermarlowe – 2 Starts, John Gosden

Big, powerful, galloping sort with plenty of scope. Was still very much learning the game in both career starts, but looks to have some raw ability that could propel him into a top class performer. He handled Epsom well enough when winning a Conditions race on his second outing. Looks sure to get 1m 2f, could potentially get the Derby trip as well.

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Chemical Charge – 2 Starts, Ralf Beckett

Made a belated debut in October. Was visually impressive and followed up with minor win on the All-Weather weeks later. Showed a nice  turn of foot on Lingfield’s polytrack. He has a lovely middle-distance pedigree which should ensure he gets better with age and distance.

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Consort – 1 Start, Sir Michael Stoute

Impressive runaway winner of a hot Newmarket maiden last autumn. Produced strong turn of foot from the front but should be suited by stiffer test. Step up in trip should suit. He’s very likely to enjoy a mile and may even develop with time into a top class runner over a bit further. Out off the Guineas though as trainer said he need a bit more time.

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Endless Drama – 1 Start, Ger Lyons

Astonishing debut run late in the season when producing serious change of gear. Very well bred out of a Listed winning mare. Looks to have loads of speed and not sure if he would get a mile, but he has potential to do loads of damage over sprint trips if he fails to show enough stamina for further.

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Fannaan – 2 Starts, John Gosden

Utterly impressive in two career outings. Beat 104 rated individual under hands and heels in soft conditions at Newmarket over 7f on second start. Bred to be top class miler who should be even more suited by quick underfoot conditions. Exciting prospect.

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Full Mast – 3 Starts, Head-Maarek

Already a multiple Group winner in France over seven furlongs  in his short career, including the Group 1 Prix Jean Luc Lagardere (actual winner Gleneagles demoted). Lovely bred and sure to improve with age and distance. Exciting middle-distance prospect.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhC0UXa681c

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Golden Horn – 1 Start, John Gosden

Was slowly away and trailing on debut but produced great run to win in the end. Beat smart runner-up (was 2nd on debut behind subsequent Racingpost Trophy runner-up). He is a half-brother to a 10f Listed winner and is bound to excel over middle-distance trips this season once stepping up in trip.

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Giovanni Canaletto – 2 Starts, Aiden O’Brien

A full-brother to Ruler Of The World, he is obviously very well bred. He has been quite green in his two career starts but finished strongly on debut behind a potentially smart winner. He produced a blistering turn of foot on his 2nd start, despite an awkward head carriage. He will improve with experience and distance.

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Mohaayed – 2 Starts, Kevin Prendergast

Very green on both starts. Completely unaware of what his job is supposed to be on debut. Very impressive winner on second start, beating smart Ballydoyle horse in third. Was looking- and wandering around in closing stages but showed some class. Future seems to be over middle-distance on pedigree.

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Highland Reel – 2 Starts, Aiden O’Brien

Very Green and raw and first two starts. Yet run out impressive 12l winner stepping up to one mile on second outing. Third of that race beat exciting prospect JFK subsequently. He went on to win Group 2 over seven furlongs at Goodwood on his last start in 2014. In a rather slowly run race he produced a blistering turn of foot. He should relish a stiffer test over further on pedigree. To my eyes he looks the real deal if he trains on. Serious Guineas prospect.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M07mwbLk4vc

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Zawraq – 1 Start, Dermot Weld

Gutsy debut winner against potentially smart Sir Isaac Newton. Showed great attitude to fight back when under pressure. Trainer is very upbeat and rates him as best 3yo in the yard. More to come once stepping up in trip. He should get up to 1m 2f but looks to have enough speed for a crack at the Guineas as well.

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It would have been easy to put a list together with all the super sexy Aiden O’Brien prospects. And boy, he has aplenty on his hands! Equally John Gosden, who seems to have some very strong individuals at his disposal. Now, three horses each have made it into my list nonetheless. But I tried to provide a bit of variety and left out the obvious ones like John F Kennedy or Sir Isaac Newton & Gleneagles.

I suppose, if you nail me down to the ONE horse to follow for 2015 – It would be undoubtedly Highland Reel. I was so impressed with his maiden win, where he was more interested in anything else around him, than the actual job he had to do, yet he pulled clear by 12 lengths…. easily….. effortless.

This speaks volumes. He is a hugely talented individual. Mind you, the third of the mentioned maiden race won subsequently a maiden where he beat none less than John F Kennedy. Okay, it’s fair to say JFK needed the run and was green and of course will be better over further. Yet, it is still telling that such an exciting Ballydoyle prospect was a good deal beaten by a horse that was simply demolished by Highland Reel weeks before. Keep the winning margin always in mind: 12l+!

The son of Galileo stepped up in class almost as effortless weeks later at Glorious Goodwood. He dropped down to seven furlongs, right into a race where the pace wasn’t really on, he pulled hard early on, yet when asked for everything, he produced a blistering turn of foot and the race was over.

Highland Reel is the real deal! Yes, there are extremely positive vibes about Gleneagles, who is a short favourite for the 2.000 Guineas. But no doubt, the value lies with his stable mate. Aiden O’Brien confirmed already that HR will go down the Guineas route. And that make sense. From there he may can step up in trip. Coral Eclipse as the most likeliest next target?

But step by step. He’s 12/1 for the Guineas at the moment, and if he starts on the day indeed, he’ll have a much better chance to win. So I backed him ante-post and nominate him as my selection for the race. Highland Reel will win the Guineas.

Global Racing

Racing’s Weekend Review

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8days

Yep, it’s hard to believe, but it’s March again and Cheltenham is literally just around the corner! Next week were’ already discussing the big races, fallen favourites and hopefully some surprising & heart-warming stories. It’s a shame, I can’t make it this year. I broke my Cheltenham maiden tag last year, and it was absolutely amazing. Tuesday with club enclosure was the perfect race day. Top class racing action, big crowd but not that it felt uncomfortable, and some lovely warm spring sun shining down into this natural amphitheatre . It’ll be a shaky stream at work this time, and replays on TV afterwards (no need to cry for me – I’ll be going to the Grand National instead!).

VIEW: Our Photo Gallery – Cheltenham Festival 2014

The formerly in Ireland trained Designs On Rome has rapidly become one of the best middle distance horses in the world. Since he left Pat Flynn’s yard to start a new career in Hong Kong, he has nothing but improved. Now a three time Group 1 winner in overseas, he’ll be one of the favourites for the Sheema Classic on Meydan’s World Cup night. And rightly so. He won the prestigious Group 1 Hong Kong Gold Cup in very taking style on Sunday morning UK time. Having it all to do turning for home, he had come from the widest travelling welloff the pace for most parts of the race, but was simply too good for his rivals, mainly old foe Military Attack.

It was Gauteng Guineas day at Turffontein, South Africa, on Saturday. You may have seen my previews for both the fillies’ and boys’ races. They promised allot and didn’t disappoint, though it was slightly surprising to see both races won by very convincing winners – that says it wasn’t the usual bunched up finished! Siren’s Call took the Fillies Guineas in style of a really good horse. She’s a hardly filly with the touch of class. Harry’s Son overcame all troubles in preparation to the big race and proved far too good for the opposition in the boys’s Guineas. Last seasons champion two year old will now try to go on to win the Triple Crown before he’ll be on the move to Dubai for next years Carnival.

Gauteng Guineas – Winner: Harry’s Son:

Gateng Fillies Guineas – Winner: Siren’s Call:

It’s not news to readers of this blog that I‘m a big fan of Bob Baffert’s colt Dortmund – who is my pick for the Kentucky Derby. It was pleasing, though also kind of odd to a certain extent,to hear Baffert talking about Dortmund, following a workout at Santa Anita: “His last two works have really been his best works. I think the light finally went on. I think he’s finally figuring out how he’s supposed to do it.” Mind you Baffert is talking about a Grade 1 winner, who is currently trading as the co-favourite for the Derby. One has to wonder, if Dortmund has been able to win all these races before without ‘the light on’, how much more improvement could potentially come from this extremely good looking colt?!

Eye-Catcher of the Weekend

Sundays card at Geyville, South Africa, was largely low grade stuff. With the exception of a fair Graduation plate, which saw 2013 champion two year old Kochka back on track for his second run after a long injury related lay-off. The four year old colt ran on well on his comeback run and has clearly grown physically into a brute of a horse. He was the clear favourite today to beat rivals below his natural class and for that reason he was our banker of the day. As expected, Kochka finished the job, even though it was slightly more thrilling than I as a punter would have like it. Which was very much the down to the very confident and light ride the big colt was given. Kochka itself is a horse to keep in mind when he steps up in trip again. 1.200m is too short against better opposition, but he is clearly back and should be a force over a mile.

My eye-catcher of the week ran in the very same race. The three year old Saratoga Dancer Saratoga Dancer, officially rated a low 78 rated, finished a fine third, less than two lengths beaten by Kochka, who is 105 rated, and runner-up Nineteen Fourteen who is a fair measure stick at 88 and clearly ran to form. Saratoga Dancer only received 3.5kg and 0.5kg respectivelly by these much higher rated individuals, yet he was able to finish so close. He is still lightly raced, was back from a break today and probably needs further. Not to mention that he got an odd ride, was never touched and still finished as close as he did. Let’s see what the handicapper does next But I suspect that Saratoga Dancer, once up in trip again, will be a big runner regardless of where he pops up next. .

South Africa

Gauteng Fillies Guineas

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This looks a much more open contest than the the boys’ Guineas in my mind, with moire unexposed runners and plenty of guesswork to do. However we have a very good favourite at the head of the market with Same Jurisdiction. She was a top class juvenile, won a big Grade 1 last summer and had an excellent prep last month in Grade 3 company. She rates a worthy favourite, though the downside is her rather poor draw and the fact that she had bleeding problems in the past. A lack of run at this track also counts as a negative. She deserves to be favourite, however is too short in the betting in my mind.

Progressive Smart Call was utterly impressive in her prep, though this here is much tougher today. If she can improve again, she is right up there with the best. So should be Sean Tarry’s Siren’s Call. A hardy filly, she finished a well respected 4th in the Dingaans and her prep win in a big sales race over shorter rates top form. If she stays the trip in a truly run race, she must be a big danger.

Never make the mistake to dismiss Turffontein top trainer Tarry’s second or even third string. His other runners Tamaanee and Bichette may be big prices in the betting today, but could spring easily a surprise. The former one the slightly more exposed already, has form over 1.600m and won against older. A good draw will help. She is an interesting price, though I restrict myself to one bet in this race and I’ve to admit that Bichette is the one that looks hugely overpriced here. She is very lightly raced, won over shorter a good handicap and performed well in her prep in Grade 3 company over 1.450m. She isn’t the quickest but is gutsy,very well bred and looks big with plenty of scope.

Her pedigree points to a mile and the step up to this trip will certainly suit her, so should the testing standside track. She has a good draw and will probably use this to race in a handy position as she prefers to do. She won’t go down with a fight I suspect and while it remains to be seen if she can make the step up into this hot top level company, she has the right looks, pedigree and progressive form. From a betting point of view, Bichette is the underestimated runner in this field.

Other fillies, like Grade 3 winner Sensible Lover or De Kock’s Pine Princess can’t be underestimated either. The fillies Guineas looks open, but very interesting and should provide spectacular action.

1.50 Turffontein: Gauteng Fillies Guineas (Grade 2)
Bichette @ 25/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts win

South Africa

PREVIEW: Gauteng Guineas

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This yeas Gauteng Guineas shapes as quite an intriguing contest where some rather exposed and seasoned runners are going to meet a bunch of unexposed, fresh contenders. Fitness levels, stamina and class are question marks for most runners in the line-up though we have right on top of the queue two extremely classy individuals – I’m talking about Harry’s Sun and Unparalleled of course. They are standing head and shoulders above the rest of the field, which is clearly reflected by heir respective official ratings.

Harry’s Sun interestingly has already Guineas form – he was a very respectable runner-up in the Cape Guineas behind top drawer Act Of War. Harry’s Sun was the leading two year old last season due to his success in the Grade 1 Champion Stakes. He followed up with another graded success however was subsequently beaten in the in the Dingaans in very convincing fashion by no one else than Unparalleled.

One could argue that he didn’t run to form that day, but one could also say that the winner was simply the better horse. He was better in the mentioned runner-up effort in the Cape Guineas, which overall rounded up a highly successful season for Harry’s Sun. He hasn’t been seen since though, and the lack of a prep run must be considered a worry. It is obvious that the preparation for the big race didn’t got to plan, yet he is currently trading as the 11/4 favourite. We have to trust his fitness, though no doubt he has the class to be a big runner if fully fit.

Harry’s Sun has the luxury of a generous draw, much in contrast to his *potentially* main rival Unparalleled. The Lateral son is literally drawn in the car park (18) and that could complicate things for obvious reasons. Nonetheless there is still plenty to like about his chance and a I’ve to admit that I’m a huge fan of his horse. I’m particularly fond of his excellent cruising speed and ability to produce an instant turn of foot. The draw is an issue, but he has a top jockey on board and he showed himself a very versatile runner if it comes to tactics.

So more than anything in a race like this, it’ll count for allot to settle well and be relaxed in the early parts, as well as to get the 1.600m trip. All those things are ensured with Unparalleled. He has a proven track record, has been progressive towards the end of last season and has been able to make a successful transition from handicaps into graded company, culminating in his emphatic Dingaans (1m) triumph. What I like about Unparalleled is the fact that he had a two month break, came back and impressed in his prep run over slightly shorter (1.450m). He’ll be bang on for the Guineas.

Mike De Kock has to be respected as always. He saddles two runners: Anjaal and Mutamakkin. The latter one should appreciate the trip and had a good prep run. He finished second behind Belong To Me and a neck in front to Unparalleled in the Grade 3 Tony Ruffel Stakes over 1.450m. More is required here around though, as he has much more weight to carry this time. His stable mate Anjaal was an excellent third in the Champion Stakes last year, however was slightly disappointing on his seasonal reappearance. He should strip fitter this time and has the potential to run really well in first time blinkers.

Sean Tarry’s Zambezi River hasn’t done much wrong in his career. A lightly raced winner of three races, who found the Cape Guineas too hot, had a fine prep run over 1.200m in a big sales race recently. He looks more like a sprinter than a miler, though, and may find this trip too far once again. In contrast Tarry’s second runner French Navy would certainly appreciate a real stamina test. He has fair form over 1.800m lately and if they go a mad pace, he’d have a chance.

Belong To Me was a fine Grade 3 winner recently, beating Unparalleled and Mutamakkin in a tight finish. The question is how much improvement has he left. Also the 1.450m trip of the recent was probably as far as he wants it. The booking of Anton Marcus for Precursor looks significant. The Captain Al son should be much better than his last two forms. He tries 1.600m for the first time, having only contested over sprinting trips. While he may have a fair chance to stay the trip on pedigree, it is much more a question mark if he’ll be able settle early on. The Captains Tune did well against older horses already and might be the pace angle here. if he gets an easy lead he could be dangerous. Normally he shouldn’t be good enough to win, though.

Verdict: There are a couple of bigger prices in the field that could well improve and run very well. But given all we know, it is hard to look beyond the first two in the market. Harry’s Son is a classy individual and if he is fit, he’ll be right there when it matters. The lack of recent run is a concerning fact though. This could open the door for Unparalleled. I was very surprised to see a price as big as 11/2 available. Analysing the race this morning without knowing the prices, I thought he would be my selection if it is about the most likely, though knowing how obvious his claims are, he’l be probably a very short and unattractive price for me. To see him as big as he is, I believe it is way too big. I expected 5/2, and can’t let 11/2 go. Yes, he has to overcome the widest draw and that needs to be reflected in the price. Yet he has the best form to offer, had a perfect prep run, loves track and trip and looks a class act the way he is travelling as well as quickening in his races.

The dark horses are the De Kock runners. Both could have more to offer and are interesting in their own right. Particularly Anjaal is intriguing. However his prep was utterly disappointing, despite the long lay-off you would have expected him to do better against a bunch of low grade handicappers. Nonetheless with first time handicappers, he is a horse that attracts me, but I can’t get over it to back him. So I gonna stick with Unparalleled in the hope he jumps well, settles well, is well positioned when the field turns for home and if so, I believe he’ll be very hard to stop.

2.25 Turffontein: Gauteng Guineas (Grade 2)
Unparalleled @ 11/2 Sportingbet – 5pts win

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Edit – Saturday, 28/02/15, 12.30: I do remain confident in Unparalleled, who is now available at even 6/1. However monitoring the betting, I can’t help but feel not attracted by the huge price for Precursor. Now available at 25’s, I have to get on that as it is simply way too big. The stamina question remain not insignificant, but on pedigree he has a fair chance. And from a good draw, I can see Marcus placing his mount in a handy position, ensuring that he settles and relaxes over this new trip, without pulling all his chances away. Marcus is a top man if it comes to that and as said before, his booking is a significant boost. – Precursor @ 25/1 Sportingbet – 5pts win

Meydan

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There is some pretty good racing at Meydan today. Couple of Group races on the Dirt track, most notably the 2.000 Guineas which looks a real cracker! The Handicaps seem intriguing puzzles to solve – nothing less is expected, though. But that makes it interesting, right? There is clearly some value to find on this card today and analysing todays races, I’ve come up with three selections. All decent prices. If only ones gets in, it’ll be a good day.

3.20 Meydan: Jaguar F Type Trophy (Handicap)

This big handicap looks wide open and usually a bit of luck plays its part. There are a couple of the better fancied horses here who have some doubts about the trip in my mind and I feel this could easily go to a longshot. That says Pilote is one I do really fancy to go close if he gets a clear run from off the pace. He is clearly on a mark he can win off. The same applies to Tha’ir. He can go well too and a big run is expected.

However for a huge price I take a chance on Sennockian Star. He didn’t perform to his best in two starts here at Meydan in recent weeks, however he slipped another 3lb in the mark and that can make a difference. He is one who likes to be up with the pace, and while he isn’t drawn super close to the rail, his draw in seven gives him every chance to waste not too much energy to take up a prominent position. Officially he is one pound above his last winning mark (in a Handicap) when he won a big one at Goodwood last summer. He followed up with a fair second in Listed company. All over 10f, which is his ideal trip these days. I feel he is worth a punt today to outrun his big price tag.

Sennockian Star @ 20/1 Coral – 5pts win

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3.55 Meydan: UAE 2.000 Guineas (Group 3)

Two big favourites in the Guineas with Godolphins Maftool and De Kock’s Mubtaahij heading the market. Both have strong form to share from last month’ Guineas trial over 7f. Mubtaahij won that day in pretty emphatic fashion. He had the perfect race from the start, and drew clear in the closing stages, clearly benefiting from match fitness through a run he had before. He’s still lightly raced and there could be much more to come. Clearly an exciting prospect. Maftool in contract had his first start in over three month, was first time tried on the Dirt, and had to overcome a completely messed up start. The way he finished the race was very impressive, and he must be a big danger to Mubtaahij today. Albeit very talented, question mark is about his attitude, as he looks a difficult horse to ride, though.

De Kock has a second runner in this field with Ajwad. Already a four year old, formerly trained in Argentina. Ajwad is bred for dirt and one would belief can improve a good deal for his first run here at Meydan, when he finished a fair third behind Mubtaahij. He clearly needed the run, the way he finished as a tired horse, and he did allot in the early parts of the race. He should benefit from the step up to 1m as that is what is clearly in his pedigree. I expect him to improve a good deal and he’ll finish much closer to his stable mate today. He has to give loads of weight to the three year olds though, and they have in turn potential to improve themselves of course. So it remains to be seen if he is good enough after all. But that says he has the right profile to go really close and he looks a nice alternative to the short priced favourites.

Ajwad @ 11/2 PP – 5pts win

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18.15 Meydan: Range Rover Sport Trophy (Handicap, Class 1)

This is a premier handicap and some really good horses are lined up here. Former Group winners all around, and that makes it a pretty interesting race over 9 furlongs. Consistent Mushreq is top of the market and ran already pretty well in two starts this year here at Meydan. He’s bound for another good performance. De Kock’s other hope Zahee has been places over 9.5f on the tapeta track in the past, but best forms came over shorter and he may struggle to get home. Ocean Tempest flies the flag for the UK, ran well lto and I’m sure he does well today too, but this trip seems to be slightly beyond his stamina as he usually is best over 1m. In general this looks a wide open race and a case can be made for most runners. I’m most interested in Vancouverite and Mujaarib though, as they seem overpriced in my eyes.

Mujaarib is the third De Kock runner here. He didn’t land a blow on his seasonal debut in Group 2 company lto, when fifth behind word class stablemate Vercingetorix. But it was a decent run nonetheless I thought, and if he can come on a bit for that, he must be in with a fair chance today. Nine furlongs seems to be his ideal trip, he won a big Group 2 at Meydan last year, beating Mushreq. Reportedly he is a pretty lazy horse, so no surprise to see blinkers on again, which may sharpen him up. He has done well with them fitted in South Africa, so they should help him to focus and 16/1 looks way too big for his chance, despite the fact that he has to overcome top weight.

Talented Vancouverite is trading as high as 6/1 an in my eyes that is very generous for a horse that has been beaten less than two lengths to Vercingetorix in the G1 Jebel Hatta last season. He was in subsequent starts not quite as good as expected, with a second place Listed contest at Haydock (albeit a good one) the highlight. He’s done well as a fresh horse in the past however, so chances are there that he goes well today again.

Vancouverite @ 6/1 Coral – 5pts win
Mujaarib @ 16/1 William Hill – 5pts win