Tag Archives: February

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 21st February 2023

Leave a comment

It was a major disappointment today: Otto Oyl finished down the field. The way he dropped out didn’t look right and too bad to be true. So it was: he was found lame post-race.

Here’s hoping for a speedy recovery. I am prepared to give him another chance. Ideally in a Handicap, as I still maintain the view that he could be seriously well handicapped.

…….

8.00 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

In all her recent runs Sharron Macready looked desperate for a drop in trip. Usually she would charge forward seriously keen, pulling hard and setting a hot pace from the front. All her recent runs can be upgraded for that reason.

Especially three runs back in September at Wolverhampton she ran a huge race from the front off 4lb higher than today and was less than two lengths beaten in the end.

I also quite liked her most recent run at Kempton after a small break when she kept going even after being headed and heavily challenged on all sides. The form of those two last runs appear strong, as well.

She didn’t have the opportunity to run over the minimum trip yet. Now dropping in grade, she could have superior speed and class in this field. It’s a pretty deep field for this grade, though.

Nonetheless, she enjoys a favourable low draw, and should enjoy the company of Dark Die Prince, who is likely to move forward from the #1 draw. She should have his lead to follow, which should help her to settle.

The fact she is so unexposed brings its own dangers. She hasn’t ran a serious speed rating yet, but I attribute that to the fact that she wasn’t able to finish her races over 6 furlongs after the early exertions.

Rossa Ryan in the saddle is a big plus. He rides these sprint trips really well on the All-Weather. An additional benefit is the strong record for the sire Mehmas with his offspring over this course and distance (25% strike rate, A/E 1.47) .

10pts win – Sharron Macready @ 9/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 18th February 2023

Leave a comment

2.13 Lingfield: Classified Stakes, 7f

The short price favourite Daphne Bay has strong form thanks to his recent win in a similar contest over a mile where he also ran a fast speed rating. But he’s one who can find trouble at the gate and being far back in this race that may end up in a sprint finish will be a major disadvantage.

I am prepared to give much lower rated longshot Smarden Flyer a chance here, even though he’s already been pushed out further in the betting since I backed him. I don’t take too much notice of that because I feel there are good reasons to believe he will run on merit, and if does he has a top chance to go close.

Rob Havlin in the saddle and and the Jewell yard have a strong record in this type of race, also with bigger prices. Hence I don’t see it as too much of a negative.

He caught the eye two runs back at this course, although over a mile. That day he moved forward and pushed the pace early in the race. He was slightly impeded over 4f out, had to take a pull, and that’s never ideal for the horses of lesser talent. He travelled well enough on the outside subsequently, attempting to challenge from over 3f out, before he finished a tiered 4th.

He ran to a 52 speed rating there, which is excellent as far as recent form goes compared to the majority of opposition here. He couldn’t follow up the next time at Kempton. To be fair the 11f trip looked beyond his stamina.

He had an entry in a similar race last week but was taken out on the day. It may or may have not been only a coincidence that he had the widest draw allocated that day.

However, I believe from the #2 draw with the visor Smarden Flyer will move forward and potentially gets an easy lead as there is not much other pace to compete against.

His career best performance came over this trip back in May last year at Kempton; so 7 furlongs looks potentially an ideal distance especially if he can unwind from the front. he stays a bit further, so if he can establish a lead going into the home straight he could be hard to peg back.

10pts win – Smarden Flyer @ 16.5/1

………..

5.30 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

It’s totally worth taking on Magicdollar who hasn’t run a fast speed rating yet and could be outstayed by only viable alternative, that is handicap debutant Lady Bianca.

The filly left a huge impression when she stayed on strongly last month at Wolverhampton over 7 furlongs. She clearly is still raw and learning, but she started much better than previously, and was very honest in her performance.

Even though clearly finding it hard to keep up as the pace increased from four furlongs out, she was tough and game to get back into it and eventually chase home the winner for a strong runner-up finish with the fastest splits over the last thee furlongs.

She clearly wants a greater test of stamina, which is no surprise given the pedigree. She will get it here, moving up in trip over a mile with the stiff finish at Newcastle sure to suit.

This class 6 contest looks an ideal opportunity to get off the mark. The only concern is the weight. The filly, born in April, has to should 9-10, which is quite a bit more than she had in all her three starts to day, and simply judged in video, she doesn’t look to have the biggest frame.

I simply hope class will see her get through this. The lto run behind Born Ruler is by far the strongest piece of form, given he was only 1½L beaten prior behind a horse now rated 87. So an opening mark off 66, albeit not a giveaway, could underestimate her now racing over a more favourable distance.

10pts win – Lady Bianca @ 4/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 17th February 2023

Leave a comment

A quiet week so far. Prince Of Rome on Monday the only selection to date, ran his race from the front; no excuses, he would have won if good enough.

Thankfully, my conservatism didn’t bite me too hard this week… yet. Not too many of my eyecatchers ran, and I didn’t miss a winner. Although, this may change today?

Some off the list I somewhat fancy but don’t feel it’s going to be their day. Nobody ever made the game pay by backing “fancies”. Nonetheless, there’s one horse too tempting, weighing up all the arguments.

………

1.50 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

I have been thinking about Dutugamunu for a while and couldn’t make up my mind. I have come around to give him the chance on pure handicapping terms after that recent run where he travelled so well and seeing some money this morning is the signal I needed.

That performance tied in nicely with the prior run as well, where he ran much better than bare form would suggest. There are obvious risks attached, though.

The yard barely has a winner on the All-Weather over the last two years, the #8 draw is a question mark, so is the potential lack of pace and the application of a first-time visor.

But these can be seen in a positive light as well. This could be the day for Dutugamunu to go for it properly. The #8 draw has a pretty solid record over the 7f trip at Lingfield, actually. The visor could help the gelding to start more sharply and get into a nice position where he’s tracking the pace.

Key to me is the fact he looks absolutely ripe on visual evidence as well as on ratings. Two runs back he ran to a 52 speed rating, while many things went wrong during the race. Last time out he travelled notably well into the home straight. Those runs confirm that he’s still as good as before his break, as in the summer he ran on three subsequent occasions to speed ratings 51, 52 and 53.

The drop to 7f could suit. He is 0/7 over the distance but most came in in the early days of his career and can be safely ignored. He already has produced a strong speed rating over 7f, though.

No doubt off a 52 mark he is extremely well handicapped now, given the speed ratings produced recently and last season. If he can overcome without issues the draw and track the pace without pulling too hard – that is a risk in this race without a designated front-runner – he must have a cracking chance to win.

10pt win – Dutugamunu @ 17/2

Betting

Monday Selections: 13th February 2023

Leave a comment

May Remain ran a huge race for 3rd place after setting off way too fast in the not quite so ‘luckly’ last at Southwell.

Obviously having to overcome the wide draw didn’t help, and Elle-May Croot wasn’t capable to slow things down once she got the gelding to the front of the race, before he tiered into 3rd in the final furlong.

I was surprised about the drift to SP 11/1. I maintain that he had a much, much better chance than that and the run confirmed this. It wasn’t the result I hoped for, but even in defeat I must say this was probably my strongest bet of the year, despite the lower price I backed. I would have done this one every time.

Important to acknowledge a winning bet isn’t always a good bet and a losing bet isn’t always a bad one.

Getting in early for Monday – not sure if this sort of price holds up for the selection; I hope it doesn’t as that’s the first positive sign; but similarly to May Remain on Sunday, I was surprised to see this price available and getting it matched to my full stake, so early in the evening, for whatever that is worth.

……..

5.00 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Good draw, minimum trip, reduced mark and poor opposition: I couldn’t asked for a better scenario for Prince Of Rome. He must be a huge chance here.

It was nearly four weeks ago that he caught the eye over this course and distance after an awkward start from a wide draw, as he bumped into a rival, settled off pace, swerved very wide around the bend relegated to last, but finished very much the best, despite not having a clear run.

That was his Comeback run after a long lay-off. He also changed yards in January. He was possibly a bit disappointing when last seen over the same C&D, although, I think the widest draw was a contributing factor as he travelled wide on the outside chasing the pace for the first half of the race.

He’s going to enjoy the #1 draw tis time to help attack the race from the front, or certainly close to the pace. It’s likely that Boom The Groom and Battle Point want to rush forward from their wide draw to grab the early pace, but that can only suit POR who could sit on the inside in second or third, ground saving, relishing a good gallop.

Down to a mark of 57 he looks potentially well-handicapped now, given he ran better than the bare form on his two last runs since the return to racing.

It’s also noteworthy in the context of his overall profile. He’s a better horse on the All-Weather, and didn’t have too many chances to race on the sand since late 2021. Down to a career-lowest mark, 12lb lower than his last AW run prior the his comeback this January, he appears to be a fair bit classier, than most of his rivals here.

The market looks unsettled and undecided as this early stage, so I am getting in as early as possible as I hope to have got it right in saying this is his “D-Day”. Smarkets and Matchbook combined matched my full stake at a price that represents sensational value in my book.

Battle Point is another eyecatcher for me in this race. But his wide draw could see him him use too much energy early on, I imagine. Hopefully we get another day with him, as he remains of interest.

10pts win – Prince Of Rome @ 7/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 12th February 2023

Leave a comment

All good things come in threes, indeed. Healing Power won, as hoped, from the front, and doing so in nice style. He was too good this time, with the ideal race from the front. He was a huge drift out to 7/1 SP surprisingly.

Gobi Sunset was only late beaten; he ran well, but perhaps the drift in the betting suggested he wasn’t quite 100% on his comeback run this time, as he tiered quickly inside the final furlong. One to keep in mind for another time.

……

4.50 Southwell: Classified Stakes, 6f

There are question marks over May Remain at the age of 8 and after missing a recent assignment due to travel problems. A wide draw is far from ideal either. On the other hand, if there are no other underlying issues, I do believe he enjoys a class edge in this poor contest.

Obviously I did back him last time out at Wolverhampton, and rued the decision, as I actually foresaw what would happen from his wide draw as he was caught wide and never stood a chance. Therefore, the run can be ignored, in my view.

Am I about to make the same mistake twice? Possibly, but possibly not. Southwell is different to Wolverhampton, and the 12 draw in these conditions is no advantage but neither as dramatic a disadvantage either, especially in this field, where there is little pace to fear from the lower gates.

That means May Remain should find it not too difficult to cross over and find himself in an ideal spot, without wasting tons of energy. If that does work out this way indeed, then he will have a huge chance to win, now that he races over 6 furlongs again.

He doesn’t stay 7 furlongs. He never truly did. With that in mind I was repeatedly impressed how well the veteran has performed this winter over a trip stretching him to the absolute limit. He ran well more often than not, and showed a good attitude at the same time.

In my view, in a Handicap over 6f with a good draw, he would be a good chance of his last handicap mark (54). He’s down to 50, though, and that makes him eligible to run in this contest.

If I am correct in believing the lto run has falsely led to this reduction in his rating, given he had no chance from his draw that day, then he’s clearly better than the vast majority of horses in this really poor Classified Stakes.

In any case, for what it’s worth, the big prices are quickly vanishing for May Remain this evening. Thankfully I started checking the exchanges early enough to get bits and pieces on throughout to get my full stake matched at a nice overall price, although no chance to get the earlier 8’s+.

If things don’t work out on Sunday, he’s got an entry next Tuesday at Newcastle in a similar race.

10pts win – May Remain @ 7/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 11th February 2023

Leave a comment

4.18 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

All good things come in threes? Well, let’s see. I backed Heeling Power the last two and times must give him one more chance here, as this race looks to be set up ideally for him from the #3 draw.

He was a bit disappointing – on bare form – the last two runs, when I fancied him a lot. However, there are mitigating factors, and this looks an easier race on paper, too.

At Wolverhampton, from a wider than ideal draw he had an awkward start and then simply never seemed to relax, doing too much early on.

Last time at Lingfield there were less excuses from the #1 draw. However, a rival was always right on his heels, attacked him from three furlongs out and drove him right toward to dreaded inside rail around the home turn, which cost momentum.

The fact Healing Power was able to get going again, rallying in the final furlong, shows me he’s still in excellent form.

He was only half a lengths beaten by Dulcet Spirit that day, who ran a career-best on speed figures. He renews rivalry with her here, and one could argue on slightly worse weight terms despite the fact the filly is 2lb higher in her official mark. The apprentice allowance offsets the additional weight, actually.

But she has a wider draw today, and is likely to be further back than last time. That could prove to be crucial. There isn’t a lot of pace expected here. Ideal for Healing Power from the low draw to hopefully settle nicely in front.

Jockey skills will be somewhat required to keep the gelding relaxed and settled. Elle-May Croot is one of the worst apprentices on the circuit, unfortunately. That’s a clear risk. I simply hope she simply bounces the gelding out of the gate and then does as little as possible. The less she intervenes, the better.

The pace scenario clearly plays into Healing Power’s hands. There are no excuses this time. He’s on a more than fair mark and has ran to good speed ratings in the not too distinct past.

10pts win – Healing Power @ 7/2

……….

7.30 Wolverhampton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Gobi Sunset looks potentially a class above the vast majority of this field if he’s fit after a break. Dropping down to 0-80 level, off a 82 rating with a useful 3lb claimer in the saddle makes him seriously well weighted.

It’s best to ignore his turf form and focus on his All-Weather form. His best performances came on the sand, and often off a break.

Therefore fitness is a question mark, but only to a certain extend, because the last two years on his seasonal comeback he was runner-up over this course and distance, only beaten a neck and a nose.

Nearly twelve months ago on his seasonal debut he ran a huge race in an 0-85 Handicap off a #8 draw, in a race that looks strong in hindsight.

He finished third and twice runner-up subsequently, in all his other runs on the All-Weather in 2022. Those performances look strong on paper, too.

Of course it is a concern that we haven’t seen him race since May 2022. Though, in the context of his overall record it isn’t a huge surprise.

Gobi Sunset has the best speed rating to offer over this trip, and certainly course and distance. Even though still without a win, he has a 100% place rate in Handicaps here and got desperately close twice.

The booking of Oliver Stammers is intriguing. This is his only ride on the day, and in the last fortnight he stat twice on Johnston runners, for a close second and a winner.

From a pace scenario the race could work out well for him. He won’t have too many issues moving forward from the #5 draw. There are two potential pace horses he can follow closely. Their early speed should help him settle, as he can be free over the 7f trip.

10pts win – Gobi Sunset @ 11/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 10th February 2023

Leave a comment

3:45 Southwell: Conditions Stakes, 1m

Eight-year-old veteran How Bizarre is certainly a much better chance in this seriously poor field than his current price. He goes up in trip with the advantage of having a super draw in a race with precious little other pace to fight.

Red Evelyn is probably one who wants to move forward, especially with first-time blinkers. She’s one of the more feared rivals, though I can see that she may do too much early on over this trip and in the blinkers.

How Bizarre gets the mile, just. He has shown to be able to stay it fine if the pace isn’t overly hot. I think he will be able to slot in nicely tracking the pace and Billy Garritty should have plenty of options.

As for form, How Bizarre has probably close to the best here, I reckon. He has been consistent this year, but clearly looked like hitting top form in his penultimate eye catching performance.

Then over 7 furlongs as Southwell, he quickly overcame the widest draw to establish a solid lead heading into the turn. He did a lot to get there, though. He led into the straight and fought hard not to relinquish the lead, just to go down very late.

A week ago over the same CD he lost many lengths at the start, though. After anticipating the start, and seemingly getting first out of the gates, he suddenly stopped completely. Before moving on and making excellent progress from 4f out, before tiering in the final furlong. He still ran seriously well, given the bizarre start to the race

A repeat of the performance from two runs back will see him go seriously close, if he can settle over the mile trip, and starts well. That form and the one before have worked out pretty well in the meantime.

He’s a obviously tricky sort these days, though. Tends to hang in closing stages; though he didn’t show any habit of starting slowly before, so hopefully it was just something that frightened him in the re-fitted blinkers on the day. They are off here, which is probably a positive.

If he gets that usual solid start from the #3 draw he should get an ideal trip and will have top chances to add a second CD win.

The clear risk, however, is the fact that the yard doesn’t send out winners on the All-Weather at all. Like never. Ever. Not since 2020. And in the last five years a meagre 2. Granted, the absolute majority where no hopers. I believe this lad has quite a lot of hope in this field, though, and has shown more than once recently that he’s in form to go close.

10pts win – How Bizarre @ 9/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 7th February 2023

Leave a comment

8.30 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

I’m somewhat puzzled as to what the early market sees here. Of course, value is always personal, but I’d argue – even if he would find a way to win – Dinoo at 7/4 is shocking price, for a variety of reasons.

Sure, you can argue he was a shade unlucky lto, but I am adamant he’s a highly suspect stayer over this trip. I was wrong before about his stamina, though; perhaps I’m not the judge to trust in this matter. Nonetheless, I happily take him on.

He’s a son of Starspangledbanner who has an atrocious record at Wolverhampton, and is clearly not a great influence of stamina.

To be honest, there isn’t much else in this race. Possibly that makes Dinoo the default favourite, in fairness. Bit Harsh is up in trip, a son of Australia has a chance to improve for the trip, but he certainly has to do s, as he’s yet to run a fast enough speed rating to believe he’s anywhere near as good as his new mark asks him to be.

Spiritofthenorth has a fine record fresh. If he’s fit, he has the profile to keep improving over this sort of trip. But he’s been off since August, and he may not get an easy lead here, has a career-highest AW mark to defy.

Bottom-weight Order Of St. John with a 7lb claimer in the saddle would be dangerous if allowed to get his own way up front. But he had a poor comeback run and is yet to win over this longer trip.

That’s how I came to the position of believing Percy Willis is hugely overpriced. Ideally I would have liked a couple pounds less or at least, formally, a slightly lesser race. However, this is not a strong 0-75 Handicap.

The gelding is in superb form. He was certainly a bit unlucky not to finish a lot closer the last two times since coming off a small break. In a slowly run race at Wolverhampton he seemed to hit top gear – he needed a moment or two to get there – as he was badly squeezed out at a crucial stage of the race. He got going again, which was impressive.

He found his route forward blocked two furlongs from home the next time at Newcastle as well after travelling strongly.

It’s the risk attached to this lad. He makes life tough for himself. That’s a danger here, especially if they don’t go a solid gallop, he may find himself in a tricky spot when the field enters the home straight.

He has got a #3 draw. Ideal, normally. He can jump and simply settle third or fourth a few lengths behind the pace setters who are jumping from 1 and 2 gates.

If he gets too far behind, he will likely be stuck in a pocket and may get out too late. There is a danger. But there is plenty of upside if he can get into a prominent racing position. Those horses tend to fare best over this course and distance.

Percy Willis is currently rated three pounds lower than his last victory (this CD), and a pound lower than his second last win. These performances came last year, and it was only as recently as October that he was just beaten by a head off a 72 mark, running to a 71 speed rating over this course and distance.

Clearly having proven to be in the same sort of form right now, he is one of the likelier horses to run to form here, with no doubts over stamina and track suitability.

There is currently still a significant discrepancy in odds on offer with traditional bookies and on exchanges. I can’t imagine this to last much longer. I grabbed every bit of the 9’s on offer and supplemented for my full stake to get 15/2, which I feel is absolutely massive for this horse.

10pts win – Percy Willis @ 15/2

Betting

Monday Selections: 6th February 2023

Leave a comment

It was lovely to continue the good start to the month of February when Mogok Valley ran away with his race at Kempton in the final furlong as his stamina kicked in.

I must say I was surprised to see him go off 11/1 BSP. I felt he was a more than solid 9/2 shot at the very least. Obviously, everything worked to perfection with a hot pace to aim at and MV finding a super spot just a few lengths off the pace.

Call it luck, that it went this exact way,… perhaps I was due some fortune, anyway.

New eyecatchers will likely drop Monday evening. The bank holiday weekend helps to clear the backlog of races to watch. Quite excited about the ones that caught the eye already. Now, all that’s needed is me being brave enough to back them. The amount of winners I missed out on in January isn’t funny.

That shows: finding the winners – in theory – is the easy bit. It’s the psychology of the game that’s the difficult part.

…….

5.30 Wolverhampton: Class H&H Handicap, 7f

I am dipping my toes into a type of race I normally avoid. Dark Design looks a strong chance, no doubt; however, if he gets the trip, then Big Impact could run away with this.

He ran an number of strong races lately, the last two especially are excellent form – he’s top-weight here for a good reason. This is much easier than all the rivals he encountered in the last while.

Two back he had the widest draw and was less than two lengths beaten behind two in-form horses. Last time out he caught my eye even more so, giving the impression he’s possibly ready to strike.

That day he reared in the stall, was bumped right after start, still moved forward quickly to grab solid spot tracking the pace. Held up behind the leaders, hew was slightly impeded as much as squeezed around the home turn, briefly losing some momentum as a consequence. Hi finished well enough against inside rail.

He’s a pound lower today, and has ran a number of times to speed ratings in the 50’s – his last seven since November read: 56, 51, 57, 11, 54, 56, 50. One lesser run, all other runs solid to strong.

Usually he is a solid starter and up with the pace, travelling well as much as one-paced and honest. Those seem ideal characteristics for a hands & heels race.

The trip is the question mark. He never tried to race beyond 6 furlongs. In his races, especially when he won, he tends to find in the closing stages, though.

His sire Lethal Force is all speed but his offspring gets 7f on the All-Weather just fine, especially if fancied. A god #3 should ensure Big Impact get’s it easy enough to find a good spot behind the pace setters. Obviously dropping in would the worst case scenario.

Trainer Robyn Brisland has a 30% strike rate (A/E 1.75) in Apprentice Handicaps over last year, while jockey Liam Wright rides well in hands & heels races. This feels worth the risk at given prices.

10pts win – Big Impact @ 17/2

Betting

Saturday Selections: 4th February 2023

Leave a comment

It was lovely to start the month with a winner, as With Respect won it good style at Southwell on Thursday. Made me feel much better after some rough days.

I am quite excited for the weekend. Great racing is here to be enjoyed. First and foremost the Dublin Racing Festival, of course.

Unfortunately I’m not yet fit enough to attend. Was really looking forward to this weekend, having bought the weekend pass (€50 for two days of top-class action, monster value), but the TV and couch will do the job.

There is excellent racing on the Lingfield polytrack as well, and not to forget the Gauteng Guineas day over in South Africa!

………

3.36: Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

Hill Station looks tremendously well-handicapped, if allowed to run on merit. Lingfield over 10 furlongs will suit, although this is a stronger race than the last two, at least on paper.

Digging a bit deeper this appears to be a pretty dire affair, though. Hill Station has quite strong recent form in the book, that stands out in this field.

Especially his penultimate run was huge on speed figures, but also on visuals. He was early up with the pace, however, got caught wide for the majority of the race. He still rallied strongly in the closing stages, to finish a brilliant 3rd.

He achieved a 63 speed rating, a career best, for this 10-race maiden. Although, he is still rather unexposed on the flat. He followed-up with another solid performance at Chelmsford over 10 furlongs, where he faded after running hard from the front and being caught in the closing stages.

The #8 draw isn’t ideal today, but there are about two other horses who want to go to the front, and they aren’t the speedy types. So there is a solid chance he can get to a handy position without wasting too much energy. Although there is always the danger he gets caught wide, nonetheless.

His sire has a poor record on the All-Weather, which is a concern. On the other hand, this is possibly a fact to negate, given Hill Station has proven he can perform well, within his limit, on the polytrack.

The jockey booking suggests Hill Station is here to give it a proper go. If that is so, I think he is a much better chance than the big price suggests ( 20/1 is available on Exchanges now; but I got to quote the price I got).

If he runs to the form from two starts back over this shorter trip, he’s going to be bang there.

10pts win – Hill Station @ 18/1

………..

7.30 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Tricky contest to get a handle on, but I only have to get a handle on one horse here, and that is Mogok Valley. He clearly deserves another chance in this easier race, down in trip, than when last seen.

Granted, the drift in the betting this morning is a slight concern, but never let a drifter put you off a strong bet – said some smarter people than I ever will be.

Mogok Valley went off favourite in a 7 furlong contest at Southwell three weeks ago. I backed him on the day. On the surface it was a disappointing performance when he faded into a distant third of five in the closing stages.

However, he was probably just found out for class behind the clearly well-handicapped winner who has won subsequently again and ran with plenty of credit in class three thereafter also.

It was the right tactics to Glorious Angel on the day, who was the horse to beat. Mogok Valley tried to challenge him from three furlongs out, attempting go the same pace but as a consequence burned out and fell away in the final furlong.

In this easier grade today – certainly there is no horse of the class of Glorious Angel – he will find it easier, I reckon. The trip should be fine, with a solid pace expected, which will help him, as I still feel he could get an additional furlong.

I also must go back two runs back, when Mogok Valley caught the eye, what was then his handicap debut.

That day at Kempton over 6 furlongs he enjoyed a solid start, travelled nicely amongst a group of horses tracking the pace, before things started to heat up from over two furlongs out.

His acceleration wasn’t rapid and he had to switch to his right at the 2 furlong pole, and again when approaching the final furlong marker, in order for clear run. He also appeared to be a tiny bit disorganised, and that cost vital momentum.

The winner, who produced a stunning turn of foot from well off the pace against the inside rail, was long gone before Mogok Valley eventually rattled home in good style for a fine runner-up performance.

I still rate this as a strong performance, following on from a lovely comeback run over the minimum trip one month earlier.

The application of cheek-pieces today is intriguing. It could help him to be as alert as needed early on. He will have to be from the #6 draw, in order to move forward and settle right behind the lead, I hope. Otherwise he will be caught wide, or worse, has to settle off the pace.

There is clear risks attached, but also clear upside. He may not be good enough to win off this mark. Nonetheless, at this point in time he warrants enough potential to see him also being perhaps one win ahead of his mark, in this grade.

10pts win – Mogok Valley @ 9/1