Tag Archives: December

Betting

Friday Selections: December, 20th 2019

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Postulation

7.00 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 6f

Dragon Mountain steps up in trip here; he’s yet to prove his stamina beyond 12 furlongs fully, but after his latest excellent run over 1m 4f, staying strongly to the line, he is not without hope.

The gelding has also come down significantly in his handicap mark since his last victory dating back to September 2018 over 10 furlongs. Down to 63 now, having ran three times to higher tospeed ratings in the past, he appears to be weighted to go close, if he stays the additional two furlongs today.

He was a fine 3rd early this month at this course over 1m 4f, travelling strongly, just to be beaten by a well-handicapped winner. 2lb for that effort, with the visuals implying the longer trip can work, he’s clearly a prime candidate today.

On top of that fine jockey Callum Rodriguez comes here for this one ride only, which seems significant as trainer and jockey enjoy a 29% strike rate (59% place) at Wolverhampton!

Selection:
10pts win – Dragon Mountain @ 4/1 MB

……….

8.30 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 9.5f

Kirby on board in these type of races is a huge bonus his booking appears significant for the chances of promising Clem A. The 3-year-old stayed on well after a little break when returning to the track here at Wolverhampton over a bit shorter, suggesting the step up in distance isn’t impossible for him to enjoy, albeit on pedigree it is a slight question mark.

Down to a 63 handicap mark, Clem A is of obvious appeal, given he won off 62 on turf this season, running to TS 63 that day also. With more experience and the trip potentially bringing out a bit more improvement, he can win a rather poor contest.

Selection:
10pts win – Clem A @ 9/2 MB

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8.15 Dundalk: Handicap, 1m 2.5f

There are two potentially well handicapped individuals in this field in my view: Ragtime Red loves this CD and is on a good mark, but has a poor draw and will need luck from off the pace.

Monsieur Piquer is the other one and clearly in with a big shout, if the handbrake is off: he finished an excellent runner-up over 1m 4f earlier this month here. He pulled hard for the first two furlongs, yet travelled strongly into the straight and led over a furlong out briefly.

The drop to this shorter distance should suit and a good draw will help to be in a position to challenge turning for home. Monsieur Piquer is still a maiden after 15 starts but now down to a 50 official mark and having shown enough speed to achieve a 56 topspeed rating suggests to me he’ll hardly find a better opportunity to get his head in front.

Selection:
10pts win – Monsieur Piquer @ 10/1 MB

Betting

Thursday Selection: December, 5th 2019

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7.00 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Honey Gg is quite obviously the horse to beat and with little else really appealing from a handicapping perspective she appears overpriced.

She was probably unlucky last time out over course and distance when going clear of the majority of the field in higher grade, but bumping into a really well handicapped winner eventually. I don’t see this danger today as she also drops down to class 6.

Only a pound up for the runner-up effort, Honey Gg is closely rated to her best, given she ran to TS 63 when winning here earlier this year, however she also posted a 67 career best topspeed over this CD later on spring. So off OR 63 she offers still a bit of value.

Having David Nolan on board again is a bonus as he rides the minim trip on the fibresand really well.

Selection:
10pts win – Honey Gg @ 7/2 MB

USA

This Is Turf Paradise

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Right now I am over in Phoenix, Arizona. What a great opportunity to pay a visit to the local race track – Turf Paradise

After having been to go racing at Aqueduct, Golden Gate Fields and Los Alamito, Turf Paradise is the fourth track I’m able to visit.

In comparison to the other three tracks, Turf Parade is on the small side. In fact, much smaller. Why? No casino!

Turf Parade strikes me as quite a compact race track, located on the outskirts of Phoenix, easy to get to because of its proximity to Interstate Highway 17.

In saying that, due to their size and lack of humans onsite I felt pretty lost at the other tracks. The day became dull after the first few races, in truth.

Well, it’s mid-week racing, there are only few people  keen or able to come racing on a Wednesday – it can be lonely onsite. Casino-race tracks are often huge places: wide and open spaces add to the feeling of emptiness anyway.

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Turf Paradise is somewhat different: smaller, compact, short ways from parade ring to betting to food, drink and good viewing options. I was greeted by a super relaxed, serene and friendly atmosphere on the day.

Splendid sunshine always helps, of course. Nonetheless, this place possesses a bit of charm: you’re close to the action, the entry is free and I found food & drink prices really fair – that made it a lovely day out.

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There wasn’t a huge crowd in attendance for this his mid-week race day. But as this is such a compact place, it didn’t feel as lonely as it did at the bigger tracks.

The level of racing was nothing to shout about. Low-grade claimers and maiden races. In saying that, most horses turned out in the parade ring looked incredibly well presented. Beautiful shiny coat, clean and fit.

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What surprised me what the relatively light use of the whip by most jockeys. There was certainly no excessive use of whip here – in fact, I felt the crop was used rather sparingly accompanied by mostly hands and heels riding.

In summary: I would go racing here again. I absolutely my day at Turf Paradise. Certainly enjoyed it much more than at Unlike at Aqueduct (okay, maybe little unfair, it was winter and freezing cold when I visited), Golden Gate Fields and Los Alamitos.

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Betting

Fighting Fifth Hurdle Preview

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2.05 Newcastle: Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 2m½f

Feels odds throwing my hat into the ring at a race at Newcastle that isn’t run on the sand…. as much as I love watching the spectacle that is jump racing, betting wise it’s no good to me – at least on a day to day basis.

Today isn’t an ordinary day, though. It’s the Fighting Fifth, the first huge Grade 1 of the season that gets the pulls raising. All the hot Champion Hurdle contenders are here – an early-season clash that’ll give us an indication if Samcro can justify the hype, after two runs that saw him a faller and then a beaten odds-on favourite.

I think, on that evidence, given the short price today again, I’m certainly inclined to take him on. Sure, the 6-year-old will come on for his recent run, but somehow that performance lacked the usual zest you would associate with Samcro, and looked more concerning to my eyes than simply being a pleasing pipe opener yielding in plenty of improvement. We shall see….

There is no doubt Buveur D’air is the one they all have to beat. He’s the defending champion in both the Champion- and the Fighting Fifth Hurdle. He’s the one who ran to the highest time speed rating of all of these, by a country mile.

Granted, this is an important early-season target, I bet Buveur D’air will not be fully wound up today. A Champion Hurdle hat-trick is the main objective. March is a long way from here.

I’ also intrigued by the “routine wind op” he has undergone during the summer. Is there really such thing as a “routine operation”? Possibly. I don’t know enough about it. Nonetheless, it puts enough doubts in my mind, compared with the bigger fish to fry for Buveur D’air later the season, to oppose him at short odds.

The obvious alternative is Summerville Boy. The reigning Supreme champ, also on his seasonal debut, obviously – with his own question marks. Around trip – too sharp? Ground – not soft enough? Talent – good enough?

He was an impressive winner at the Festival for obvious reasons, but the fact he seems to have issues with concentration, in a race that’ll likely be about speed and accurate jumping, whereas he strikes me more like a grinder, is a big question mark. Will he be ready for today? I bet so! If you want to gauge how Summerville Boy measures up against the top guns you got to be ready for the fight today.

Connections are pretty bullish. On the evidence on form and ratings he has plenty to find to Buveur D’air, but not a lot to Samcro – in fact his all-time best TS is a pound better than Samcro’s. Whether that’s of significance, is up for debate. Certainly, on evidence, the six-year-old has plenty scope for improvement, if he gets his act together in the later stages of the race.

Given my doubts about pretty much any of the main principles in the race, and not having a lot of confidence in the other two in the field, at given prices Summerville Boy looks a superb bet.

I feel this race is more important for him than for the favourite. I believe, at this stage, he’s likely as good as Samcro. There are plenty of positives vibes around him as well – so I allow myself a crack at this hugely exciting renewal of the Fighting Fifth Hurdle!

Selection:
10pts win – Summerville Boy @ 6/1 MB

……..

5.15 Wolverhampton: Novice Stakes, 5f

Vee Man Ten looks a decent colt after showing promise in two starts on turf earlier this year. He looked like winning on debut at Beverly but was squeezed out eventually to finish third while only ridden hands and heels – this form looks strong judged through the winner in particular, but also the runner-up.

He blasted out of the gates at Haydock less than two weeks later, setting a brutal pace that wasn’t sustainable, particularly over 6 furlongs. However, the early speed he showed was impressive.

Now the bit wiser, first time on the All-Weather and dropping to 5f, it could be third time lucky. On pedigree this should suit, his sire has a fine record on the sand over the minimum trip, particularly with juveniles.

Vee Man Ten has a hood fitted for the first time, which may not be a disadvantage, a good draw and jockey KT O’Neill making his way here for this one ride only – strong chance.

Selection:
10pts win – Vee Man Ten @ 4/1 Sky

Betting

Friday Selections: December 29th 2017

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2.25 Southwell: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

Competitive race over the minimum trip on the fibresand. I do fancy the chance of eight-year old veteran Brother Tiger.

A 5f furlong specialist, who’s shown his best at Lingfield in the past. He’s been seen only once at Southwell before, back in 2016, when placed over this very same trip.

Back from a break after two below-par efforts ended an until then busy season, potentially he needed it as 2017 was in fact his busiest campaign ever, which in general was a decent one including a Lingfild 5f win in May.

Brother Tiger is down to this last winning mark now and if fit after his break, could play a pivotal role from the perfect draw. The golden highway, those low numbers, and even more the 1 draw, can often be a significant advantage here.

Selection: 
10pts win – Brother Tiger @ 15/2 Bet365