Tag Archives: Cheltenham

Opinion

Racing, who cares?

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If you’re a racing fan it’s a mission impossible to escape the doom and gloom narrative that’s currently surrounding the sport.

An ever growing list of daily news and opinion pieces are questioning the future of the sport. Wearing blinkers or a hood may not be a sufficient avoidance strategy. Because right now everyone wants to have their say on all the things that (seemingly) go wrong in racing:

Racingpost – 26th March 2024

The 2024 Cheltenham Festival seemed to be a tipping point. Equine performances took a backseat; first overshadowed by negative chatter in the racing bubble (nothing new, it’s always doom and gloom) before it found its way – worryingly – to feature prominently in mainstream media as well.

Steep decline in ticket sales and lower attendance figures. Flat atmosphere. Boring races. Poor customer experience – That’s what made the headlines throughout the week of Jump Racing’s “Olympics”.

The Guardian concludes…

Even ITV, a (welcome) cheerleader for racing, that usually sees the world through Ed Chamberlin’s rose tinted glasses, couldn’t avoid the negative narrative that was shaping the week:

In truth, all this represents only the rotten cherry sitting on top of the spoiled cake that racing fans get served every day of the week.

Racing as a sport, most prominently jumps racing – but make no mistake, the flat has its own serious issues – finds itself well and truly in the midst of a seemingly unsolvable (?) polycrisis.

It’s not really about that one famous week in March in isolation. In fact, there are blindingly obvious reasons for what’s happening here – jumps racing’s flagship event simply magnifies the situation:

  • 1. Racing isn’t that popular in an increasingly urban society these days.
  • 2. Competition creates excitement: but the sport itself isn’t as competitive as it used to be.
  • 3. It’s a seriously expensive day out.

All three aspects fit perfectly to everything we have heard and seen a couple of weeks ago at Cheltenham. However, they also fit the wider situation racing finds itself in. Which is not to say there aren’t ways to rectify some of the issues. There is!

Let’s expand on these points a bit and bring in a bit of personal experience as well. Especially on the first point. Even though, shifting social and cultural norms aren’t something entirely under the control of the sport, in fairness.

Racing’s popularity in the urban society

I work in a diverse environment and talk to people from all over the world on a daily basis. I also love talking racing and will tell people about it whenever they give me an inch.

The vast majority of all the different people I meet are – at best – ambivalent if it comes to racing. Some will call out the animal welfare aspect, a select few will question whether it’s appropriate to “beat horses with a whip for human profit”, while a small minority will actually have any engaging interest.

Make the test yourself: ask a selection of random friends or colleagues what they know and think about horse racing (I bet only a few are going to mention the whip – it’s a non-issue for most people).

Yet, you’ll find out that most people lack the most basic understanding about horse racing. More often than not, the lay person wouldn’t even know that the thoroughbred is a different breed to the horse they’ll see lurking over the wooden fence on the side of a country road.

The majority of modern, urban society neither has- nor ever had any touchpoints with horse racing. And why would they?

They’ve never given a reason to care about the sport and likely never will…. no matter the current number of permitted strokes with the whip or whoever the headline music act is that lines up after the racing on a Saturday evening card at Windsor.

Let’s not kid ourselves – even if the following notion sounds overly nihilistic: we live in a modern, urban society where racing won’t gain any significant mainstream relevance ever again. The horse has bolted, so to speak.

Does it mean the overall downward trajectory can’t be at least halted? I’d say it can, at least to an extend. Which leads to the other two points, as clear and obvious they seem.

Lack of competition devalues the product

There have been way too many articles written about customer experience, costs of going racing and the racing product itself – at least in the context of the recent Cheltenham Festival.

What I will add and want to emphasise: racing absolutely needs big clashes. The heavyweights of the sport must race each other – they’re the ones who can give the media, and in extension a wider public, a reason to be intrigued by what’s happening on the actual racetrack.

I’ll touch on the “care about what?” aspect later on again – for now, let’s call out the obvious: if genuine racing fans struggle to get excited about the racing product on offer, why should anyone outside the bubble waste any thought about it?

That leads to the final point, which in a sense is intrinsically linked to the quality of the racing product: the costs of going racing. It doesn’t make the product automatically exciting just because you merely insist you’re offering a premium product and this in itself warrants premium prices, IF the product that markets itself as premium doesn’t actually deliver a premium experience on AND off the track.

As convoluted as that may sound, Cheltenham is a prime example for this notion. Mind, it’s not the only place where it holds true. Admission to a large number of British racetracks is expensive as well. And not all of them can be classified as “premium venues”, let alone hosting “premium events”, by any means.

Food and drink doesn’t turn magically “premium” just because it costs racegoers an arm and a leg to buy a portion of chips fried in cheap vegetable oil and a run of the mill lager. Neither does it have to be “premium”. But decent value for money, that’s what it must be.

Let’s be honest: more often than not going racing is an expensive day out. And that’s even without having a single bet.

Tie that back to the actual sport on offer. If the racing isn’t good, because the best avoid each other or the field sizes are small, then the decline in attendance and interest in the sport is an entirely self-inflicted result. Because those in charge of the sport have it in their hands to make meaningful changes.

There’s an audience for Racing

Even if attendance figures were down at Cheltenham (and continue to fall across the sport, while multiple racetracks have closed worldwide also), clearly there remains an audience for the sport – certainly on these shores.

Thousands are still flocking to the bigger meetings and the smaller race tracks alike. There is a vibrant, engaged and real fan base: genuine racing fans.

Racingpost reports on TV audience

That’s the kicker for me: instead of trying – in vain – to appease and attract an audience that will never be captured by the magic of racing, “the sport” – regardless of jurisdiction – needs to make every effort to create the best possible racing product AND experience to engage its core audience.

“Competition creates excitement.
Excitement creates engagement.
Engagement creates betting turnover.
Simple!“

Okay, it’s not that simple. Nothing ever is. Nonetheless, the key ingredients for a better racing product remain rather simple. It starts with great sport.

And continues with fair pricing for entrance, food and drinks. Let’s make a day out at the racecourse an attractive experience. In contrast: ripping off people, putting greed first? That’s what alienates fans.

Don’t stop there: more data, better data, reliable data. Help fans engage with the sport in a deeper way. Drive innovative media coverage through smart use of technology. Racing can feel pretty “old” and certainly isn’t at the forefront of driving innovation in sports coverage.

There’re opportunities aplenty: drones, helmet cameras…. you name it. Racing is such a visually exciting sport. Help TV and media operators to transport the spectacle in a spectacular way.

A more engaging atmosphere can also be created at the racetrack through technology. Let’s be honest, not much is happening between races. Technology can help create a richer atmosphere here as well.

The sport itself needs to be at the forefront of any marketing effort. You want people to care about the stories the racing produces. You want people to engage with the sport for the sport itself – not for the reasons of drinking and partying in a large open air venue with the half-hourly disruption of a bunch of horses running in circles.

Because that’s the exact opposite to creating meaningful fan engagement with the sport. Of course, that must include the betting side as well. Nobody can deny the fact these two are intrinsically linked, even if not for everyone. An attractive racing product makes for an attractive betting product as well, though.

Fan Engagement key to long-term viability

Julie Harrington did seem to grasp this aspect in her now infamous statement when she touched on the “need to grow our fanbase by encouraging new fans and retaining existing fans”.

Yet, these platitudes aren’t anything new. We heard them before. And we’ll likely hear them again. Tangible action is needed. Urgently.

In my view (and it’s only an opinion, perhaps a wrong one): before the BHA tries (in vain) to miraculously gain any new fans, how about creating a better experience for existing fans first?

Imagine: fans in love with the sport who are also in love with their personal experience of their beloved sport, are the best marketing tool there is: they’ll tell other people. They share experiences, photos, videos and stories on social media.

They’re ambassadors for racing. Because fundamentally, humans who are passionate about something, always want to share this passion with other people.

On the flip side, most likely they’re as likely and passionate about telling other people how disappointed they are with the trajectory of their beloved pastime right now. This has a ripple effect, one way or the other.

Let’s make racing great again

Let’s conclude and bring this all back to a more positive outlook. There are obvious ways to improve the experience for racing fans (and punters).

Nothing comes cheap, and nothing will change magically overnight. But there are core themes that will create positive impact, if tackled and not left to linger for much longer.

Obviously, this is very much with British racing in mind. On the other hand, racing is struggling in many countries that are not Japan or Hong Kong (plenty to learn from their playbook, though).

  1. A revamped racing program: deliver regular clashes of the best horses and healthy field sizes. That’s creates excitement and betting opportunities for punters (if they can get on; that’s a topic for another day).
  2. Value for money: a day at the races must be affordable, inviting and providing an engaging experience.
  3. Enhanced experience through technology: bring racing into the 21st century. Drive stronger engagement with the sport through data, use of new technologies and exciting multi-media coverage.

Although this may sound overly simplistic, ultimately, it boils down to one question – one that racing authorities need to find answers for ASAP. This question encapsulates everything mentioned beforehand:

“Why should I care about horse racing?“

Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham 2024: Gold Cup Preview

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Twelve months ago I was very much in camp Bravemansgame and adamant that Galopin Des Champs isn’t nowhere near as good as the hype surrounding him.

In 2024 I’m no longer in camp Bravemansgame. It’s obvious by now that he’s not the same horse that finished a brilliant runner-up last year. He could still run well, but he’ll have to improve on anything he’s shown in three starts this season so far, to be in with a realistic shout to win the race – which looks a deeper renewal, too.

Galopin Des Champs? Can’t have him, once again. Races aren’t run and won on spreadsheets. But the fact remains the reigning champion has rarely convinced on speed ratings, with the Gold Cup a significant outlier across 17 career runs in my book.

Saying that, if taken last years Gold Cup victory at face value, the 7-year old gelding appears even more unbeatable a year later, especially after two visually impressive wins in his last two starts. But is he?

He was beaten twice after the Gold Cup and looked a mere mortal, unlike previously. The two subsequent visually stunning performances came in races that were run to suit him perfectly, I believe. Based on speed ratings they haven’t been impressive at all, though.

I’m left with the impression that a strongly run Gold Cup, on testing ground, will see Galopin Des Champs vulnerable to a stronger stayer. This scenario may play out this Friday. If he’s ridden handily, as he was the last few times, close to what could be a pretty good pace, on soft enough ground, he could burn through his energy reserves earlier than expected.

That poses the question: who’s the strong stayer good enough to beat the red hot favourite?

The ground may well have turned against Hewick. He may not even run, if trainer Hanlon is following through on his words leading up to the Festival. But I’m not sure he’d be good enough to win, in any case.

Corach Rambler, in contrast, is sure to run and to finish strongly. The Grand National hero and multiple course winner should have a proper shout, I reckon. The race could pan out perfectly for the 10-year-old.

It’s hard not be drawn to his sensational victories in the Ultima Chase, especially given the way he’s done it and the depth of the 2023 renewal.

He may need to improve a bit, though, given this is the classiest race he ever contested. Not impossible that he can raise his game in these circumstances.

But he’s a 10-year-old. He’s not exactly unexposed. How much more improvement is there to come?

I’m still trying to work out L’homme Presse. Undoubtably a talented individual, threatened to progress to the level required to be considered a proper Gold Cup horse. He’s got course form, and looked strong over shorter 2m 4f on his reappearance. Not so good the next time and I remain not fully convinced that he’s quite good enough in this grade.

Fastorslow should be the key rival to Galopin Des Champs, given he beat him twice at Punchestown in the last 12 months. However: those wins came in different circumstances.

Punchestown in April, at the end of the season, over 3 miles on yielding ground, and 2m 3.5f in the John Durkan at the start of a season, are hardly comparable to the Cheltenham Gold Cup, in my mind.

The supposedly “natural order” was assumed in the Irish Gold Cup in February this year. Fastorslow jumped well and ran an excellent race, but was unable to quicken and follow Galopin Des Champs’ acceleration, ultimately.

It’s clearly possible that the Gold Cup trip in combination with a good pace can bring out additional improvement. For all that, on speed ratings Fastorslow hasn’t convinced yet, and all those points combined make him a short enough price.

Price is everything: by pure process of elimination I’ve come to the final conclusion there’s only horse offering value in the betting and upside form wise.

That one horse is Gerri Colombe. The eight-year-old gelding, trained by Gordon Elliott, remains low mileage and has a strong 9-7-2 record under rules. He was only beaten at the Festival last year and when last seen in the Savills Chase.

Hitting a flat spot before the run-in cost him the race in the Brown Advisory twelve months ago. He stayed on incredibly strongly and one or two strides after the line hit the front. Would, could, should….

But it’s clear the step up to the Gold Cup distance will suit this strong stayer tremendously. That he can finish with zest and do it in a Grade 1 was evident when he won the Champion Chase at Down Royal thanks to an incredibly gutsy performance.

I’m prepared to forgive the below-par Leopardstown run, when runner-up behind GDC in his latest start. Something looked amiss that day.

If one is prepared to ignore that run, and believes he’ll have benefitted from a break since then – which his record fresh indicates – it’s hard to look past Gerri Colombe at the current prices. He’s got to improve, but has the profile of a horse who’s capable of doing so, especially with conditions most likely to suit.

10pts win – Gerri Colombe @ 10.5/1

Edit: I should have checked the market before sending this post. Having written it earlier today and having backed Gerry Colombe in the morning I missed that Hewick is out and the market reacted. GC is now about 8/1 (9.4 on some exchanges).

Still a more than fair price in my view, as I maintain he remains one of the prime contenders in the race. Though, I’m always aiming for transparency, so just thought to make this clear when having quoted a price in my preview that’s not a true reflection at his point any longer.

Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham 2024: Tuesday Selections

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3.30 Champion Hurdle, 2m½f

The race hasn’t been blown wide open with the absence of Constitution Hill. Instead State Man has simply replaced the champion as the new red hot favourite.

State Man is now as short as 1/3 with the majority of bookies. Is that a slight overreaction to the supposed fact that there’s not (even potentially) meaningful opposition to the reigning Irish Champion hurdler?

No question, State Man is a seriously talented AND consistent horse. Unbeaten for two years – with the exception of a highly credible runner-up performance in the 2023 Champion Hurdle.

Trained by Willie Mullins, of course the 7-year-old gelding is the likeliest winner. Yet, there’re a couple of reasons that could spoil the Mullins party on Tuesday, at least in the Champion Hurdle:

State Man hasn’t quite wowed me yet on speed ratings. His two Cheltenham performances are good, and clearly the success in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown rates strongly as well, also on the clock.

Perhaps, trying to find holes in the form, it’s nitpicking, but he may have benefited from circumstances in those races, and the overbearing feeling for me remains that the vast majority of his performances don’t scream “unbeatable”, like a 1/3 shot would suggest.

The pace in the Champion Hurdle will be interesting to see how it develops. State Man may have to do the “donkey work” for himself. He usually races right up there and has made the running in the past. Hence this isn’t a negative per se. But it may offer some others to stalk and pounce in his shadow for a turn of foot – because this could easily develop into a sprint finish.

Of course all that only matters if there’s any meaningful opposition. With that in mind, I think there could be two horses offering enough upside at this point of their careers to hope that they can make this a race for State Man.

Irish Point is an intriguing runner. The drop in trip may not be a problem if the ground remains soft, though the potential lack of pace is a concern. Perhaps that could temp connections to deploy front-running tactics?

There were occasions when Irish Point made all, notably when he landed a Grade 3 as a Novice last year at Naas over 2 miles.

The Gordon Elliott trained gelding seems as rock solid an each-way shout as you could find, if eight runners go to post. He should be a bit shorter, in my book, than the current prices.

The one I’m most intrigued by is Nicky Henderson trained Iberico Lord. Supplemented at the cost of £18k, he’s no Constitution Hill, but certainly a promising horse on an upward trajectory.

Ground is key for the 6-year-old gelding: it should remain soft enough for him to be seen to best effect on Tuesday, given the current weather forecast and latest going readings.

Iberico Lord remains low mileage with plenty of upside: 7-3-1 over hurdles, and 2/3 this season – a lacklustre effort in December had been put firmly into the rear mirror thanks to a big performance in the Newbury Betfair Hurdle last month.

That was only a Grade 3, and he’s got to step up significantly to have a real chance in a Champion Hurdle. Nonetheless, that level of performance puts him right in the picture here IF he can continue to improve.

The way he quickened at Newbury from three out was seriously impressive, in my view. He did it easily enough in the end. That form looks strong, franked through some of those behind in the Imperial Cup last weekend.

Another positive can be taken from his course and distance win back in November. He clearly relished the hill that day.

Stable form is an obvious concern. Nicky Henderson’s loss of form, and the issues with his stable star, have been widely documented. In contrast Willie Mullins seems to to win everything these days. State Man will be 100% ready. Let’s hope Iberico Lord is ready to rock as well.

Even without the stable form question to be answered, Iberico Lord has to improve a whopping 26lb on Official Ratings. Although, with natural progression that isn’t impossible.

This is going to be his first crack at Grade 1 level. And on speed ratings things look quite a bit closer. Therefore, a gap of 1.37 to 14.5 seems huge…. and too big.

10pts win – 13.5/1

……

4.50: Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, 2m½f

As the nature of this race goes, it’s wide open. A case can be made for plenty to be in with a chance, and/or somewhat hidden to protect their mark in the past just waiting for a looseningof the handbrake.

This may be one where the home team has a chance, but the away side could have the edge once more.

Joseph O’Brien’s Lark In The Mornin makes plenty of appeal – surely he’s got tons of unseen potential to offer, waiting to be unleashed on Tuesday. I’m not fond off the price, though.

The De Bromhead yard seems to hit some form, finally. The lightly raced filly Nara is an intriguing runner if she can settle in the hood. She looks a free sort and a buzzing Cheltenham remains a worry.

The market hasn’t missed Milan Tino, who looks on a decent opening mark, neither does the market takes any chances with top-rated Liari and Ndaawi.

One I’m interested in, but thought the price may go the wrong way for me, has been available at surprisingly generous prices this afternoon, though: Martin Brassil trained Ose Partir could be seriously dangerous off 126 on his handicap debut.

The bare form this year reads quite poorly on the surface. However, there’s more to it than naked numbers. The French recruit was keen in his first starts and raced in hot waters lately.

This is perhaps easier than the Grade 1 at Leopardstown last month. He jumped alright for most of the race, made a bit of progress from the rear of the field from four out before fading away, without getting an overly hard ride.

Ose Partir seemed to settle better and travelled well enough. I quite liked his run over Christmas as well where he made even more eye-catching progress toward the backend of the race.

He was a promising three-year old on the flat in France before switching to the Brassil yard. A winner on his racecourse debut, and fine second in a subsequent conditions race behind a winner who locked horns with Big Rock and Ace Impact subsequently.

His Irish debut was eye-catching too, as he was quite keen and was a bit unfortunate in the closing stages, finishing a gallant runner-up without being asked for everything.

In any case, Ose Partir is one to keep an eye on even if he finds this contest too hot in the end. If he’s ridden off the pace he’ll need some luck too. But the likely rattling pace and big field could help him to settle and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a significantly improved performance.

10pts win – Ose Partir @ 15.5/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 17th March 2023

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Two winners from three selections on Thursday – and the third beaten by a head! It could have been the sweetest of hat-tricks.

No complaints. Saisons D’Or went off a lot shorter than the price I got…. the money was on and he clearly is in peak form the way he fought back for a seriously game victory at Southwell.

Get Stuck In got the pretty easy run from the front, as hoped, and had too much in hand. It’s also fair to say Leabaland had a few pounds in hand but Seamie Heffernan went pretty hard early on, and that perhaps was the reason getting beaten in the dying strides.

Who am I to complain, though? Am not. Any day with two winners is a brilliant day in my book. It gets March firmly back into the green, as it has been 5 winners to date for the month, and we’re only halfway through it.

By my own calculation, one more solid priced winner will solidify a healthy profit. I wouldn’t mind it this one comes today, in the big race…

………

3.30 Cheltenham: Grade 1 Gold Cup, 3m2½f

The blue ribband of jump racing has been kind to me, betting wise. This year, though, shapes like a hot, and tricky edition.

It stems from the fact that half the field appear on more or less the same good level of form. While a few select have clear standout form, but serious questions to answer.

The one on many lips, is Galopin Des Champs. The favourite, and a short price for a horse with stamina to prove.

No doubt, an incredibly talented individual; unbeaten in seven of his last eight starts; and that one blip, was desperately unlucky in the Turners when he seemed to have the race won, if not for falling at the last.

This season he’s a much better settled horse, jumps really well and won the John Durkan as well as the Irish Gold Cup by a combined 21 lengths!

But at the current price I have to take him. There are valid concerns over his stamina, especially on deep ground. The Irish Gold Cup proved little. He sprinted away from Stattler in a test of speed more than anything. He has won on proper soft ground but is it his preferred going? I doubt it.

Stable mate Stattler is an intriguing contender. Available at 20/1+ on the exchanges; he’s a serious contender to run late into the placings, I believe. He’s not shown quite enough on ratings, to suggest he’s truly a Gold Cup winner. But the deep ground will help to make it stamina test, which could suit.

Minella Indo ran a huge race in second place last year. He hit the front too soon, and had nothing more to give once A Plus Tard sprinted past him. But it was a strong performance, good enough in other years to win a Gold Cup, I believe.

He looked good on his return at Tramore in early January. We haven’t seen him since, though. The vibes from the yard are bullish, but I see it as a negative that he didn’t go Leopardstown as he did the last two years when he won- and finished runner-up in the Gold Cup.

Grand National hero Noble Yeats is rightly in the mix. The emphasis on stamina will be to his advantage. I’m not sure whether he’s truly good enough to win a Gold Cup, though.

Protektorat and Royal Pagaille have shouts to run into the placings on their best form. Ahoy Senor with a clear round of jumping could be dangerous. But there is no question the gap to the the top three in the betting market is real.

I mentioned Galopin Des Champs before and the fact I’m happy to take him on. I’d be certain he wouldn’t be A Plus Tard, if the impressive 2022 Gold Cup winner would return to the same level as twelve month ago.

Clearly his prospects have improved since DeBromehead yard looks in good health this week. You would hope whatever problems materialised at Haydock about half a year ago now, and the issues at Leopardstown, are well and truly fixed.

It’s shame we haven’t seen him since. No matter what, this can’t have been an ideal preparation for the biggest race of the year. He’s a year older, too; having been at the Festival numerous times before, how much more is left in the tank?

I can take the leap of faith required to back A Plus Tard; even though I do so last year and those memories are still vivid.

But there is no question in mind the only horse I can back at this stage is Bravemansgame. If I would have come to this conclusion earlier than this week I could have gotten bigger prices. But I still think he’s overpriced.

Ever since that impressive King George victory was I contemplating for and against Bravemansgame’s prospects to stay up the Hill to win a Gold Cup.

The positives outweigh the negatives ultimately, though.

Bravemansgame won that day at Kempton in the most impressive style. He powered home, staying on strongly, found more and more for pressure, when everyone else fell away.

He gave ground away all the time – perhaps by design. Jumped fluently, travelled powerfully for a long time, and was brave and gutsy; a bit flat footed around the final bend, he kept going, came back on the bridle and outbattled his rivals.

Yes, perhaps, one could argue, the winning margin was flattered by L’Homme Presse who unseated his rider at the last. But he had the race won by then, I firmly believe, in any case.

That performance is by far the strongest this season, on all sorts of ratings. Whether Bravemansgame can run to the same level of form over this extreme test of stamina on deep ground is the key question.

His best form comes on flatter, galloping tracks. His sole visit to Cheltenham ended in heavy defeat. Paul Nicholls is adamant that Bravemansgame is a different, stronger, more mature horse these days, though.

Therefore, he deserves his chance to go for a Gold Cup. He seems to posesses the right tools to cope with the demands of the race. But there is only one way to find out whether he truly has got it to win the Gold Cup. At given prices my money is riding on him.

10pts win – Bravemansgame @ 13/2

Betting

Betting Review 2022

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376.30 points profit, 35 winners and 19% ROI. It was an eventful year with plenty of lessons learned.

2022 was a challenge on many fronts, “on and off the pitch”, so to speak. On the pitch it clearly was an ever dramatic up and down. From the absolute highs of backing the longshot winner in the Melbourne Cup to the absolute lows of backing 31 consecutive losers.

At times I struggled, stumbled and lost confidence in the process that has been tried and trusted for nearly a decade now. Ultimately, though, 2022 proved to be another profitable year.

The process is alive and kicking, still working well enough to produce winners and a green P&L sheet – at the end of the day for a sixth consecutive profitable betting year.

Raw numbers

  • 376.30pts annual profit
  • 19.29% Return of Investment
  • 201 Selections
  • 35 winners
  • 17.41% Strike Rate
  • 8/1 average odds

Selections on turf produced the majority of the annual profit with 310pts; about 141pts from UK selections alone. Irish selections were also profitable this year with about 49pts profit.

The All-Weather shows a 59pts loss. I didn’t back a winner on the sand until late October, in fact. A clear upswing since then, with 156pts profit in the last two months of the year.

As always, outside of UKI things look positive: 13 international bets produced 160pts profit.

On the flat the majority of this years profit came in class 5 and class 6 Handicaps. All but two winners came in races below a mile. No surprise, as that is my main focus, both in terms of class and distances.

Selections in races over the 7 furlongs trip yielded the highest return: 285pts profit from 38 selections. Closely followed by the minimum trip that yielded 237pts profit for seven winners from 25 bets.

In contrast 6 furlongs produced a whopping 147pts loss from 36 selections. 37 selections over the mile trip resulted in 95pts loss. Middle to longer distances were a loss-making endeavour, too.

I’m not a jumps man betting wise: 11 selections, 95pts profit, largely due to a fine Cheltenham festival with 5/8 successful bets.

Ascot has been a kind track to me this year, both in terms of producing winners as well as eye catchers that went on to win subsequently.

Newcastle (0/10) and Doncaster (0/7) have been a disaster, on the other hand. Kempton (1/12) is a track I struggled, as well; I am not sure whether I ever backed a winner at Carlisle. Certainly not in 2022.

As for the selection process (flat only): eye catchers contributed 181 pts (222pts in Class 5/6, but minus 86pts all other Handicaps), traditional form analysis added 70pts to the annual profit, the rest made up by a bunch of system bets.

A complete overview of all selections and annual data going back to 2017 can be found here if anyone is keen to dig deeper.

Key Learnings

While 2022 was a solid year, it didn’t feel like a good year at all. It could have been – perhaps should have been – a much better year than it has been, for various reasons. There are 3 key learnings I hope to transfer into 2023.

Trust The Process

Be consistent and trust what’s working well – yes, reflect and don’t shy away from change if required, but the core of the process has remained the same for nearly decade and continues to work well.

Bet the process, not the outcome….

It’s the one thing you hear every profitable punter say. because it’s true. I need to remind myself of this mantra, once in a while, especially in times when variance shows its mean face.

My process works. It’s profitable. It takes a lot of effort. But it rewards the work and effort plenty fold. It does… if I do trust it, though; even during lean times. Be consistent about the approach to finding bets (i.e. the process) and good things will happen…. eventually.

Be Patient

An extension of consistency and trusting the process. It requires patience. There are no shortcuts.

Patience also means picking and choosing your fights. In the summer, when up to 20 eyecatchers could run in a single day, the fear of missing out can led to a rushed decision-making process. This will almost certainly lead to poor bets.

There’s simply too much racing, it can be overwhelming. Instead of attempting the impossible, be selective and focus on the races that play to the strengths of the process. Be patient, it’s the long term that matters. If “one gets away”, so be it. Tomorrow is another day.

Variance is your Friend

I endured some brutal losing runs this year: 31 consecutive losers- and only one winner of 48 bets between July and September. Only one short-priced winner of 27 bets between April and May.

Tough times. And inevitable. Especially given the average odds of my bets – around 8/1.

Sequences of losing bets are nothing out of ordinary; in fact they are to be expected and statistically inevitable. It’s variance. As simple and brutal as it is.

Knowing this doesn’t make it easier to endure. I was wondering during those times whether I “lost it”.

On the other hand, a simple look back to previous years would have shown that losing runs happened every year and the up- and downswings can be quite violent, as the 2017-2022 P&L graph presented earlier demonstrates pretty well.

Where things go down they have to go up again. What followed the most horrible months of my “betting career” was a November for the ages: the most profitable single month in over four years.

Remember, it’s a never ending ultra-marathon – as long as the P&L sheet is green in the long run it doesn’t matter what happens in the short-term, as long as value is still present in each and every price taken.

2022 Favourite Winners

I backed 35 winners in 2022. Every single one is important, no matter the class of the race. But some mean more than others, if only on an emotional level. Here’s my 3 favourite winners in 2022.

Gold Trip: Melbourne Cup

Backing the 21/1 winner in my favourite international race, is the standout moment in 2022.

Gold Trip’s victory came at the right time as he kicked off a golden November. Prior to this fateful first November day, I backed a meagerly two winners from the last 53 selections. All forgotten, when you land the big one.

State Of Rest: Prince of Wales’s Stakes

A gutsy, honest colt, trained by Joseph O’Brien, State Of Rest got a peach of a ride by Shane Crosse at Royal Ascot in the Prince of Wales’s, beating odds-on favourite Bay Bridge.

This win came at the right time, after backing only a single winner in the last 26 selections. I got 8.4 on the exchanges, which looks stellar value in hindsight.

Sammarco: German Derby

Far from the biggest winner of the year, but certainly one of my favourites. I was incredibly sweet on the son of Camelot, as he caught the eye in serious fashion on his previous two career starts and I felt he could even develop into an Arc contender.

While his season ended somewhat in an anti-climax, his German Derby triumph was as dramatic as brilliant, given the way the race developed. This winner was one of 9 in a glorious July.

………..

Finally, thank you to all readers, be it here or on Twitter, and especially those that have engaged so eagerly. 

It makes it twice as enjoyable if you can share the passion for the sport with other people, and even more so if others can derive value from this site as well. 

On to a wonderful and hopefully profitable 2023.
Betting

Saturday Selections: March, 14th 2020

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Cheltenham is over. It didn’t deliver the goods on the betting front as it did in the last years. At the very least it delivered some relieve in the sense some of my selections were successful. Many more ran really well. That’s a big positive after the worst start to any betting year I ever had.

There is a bit a question “would, could, should”. But those type of thoughts rarely lead to anything good.

I got the Gold Cup spot on, though: Al Boum Photo was the one to beat and he had everything you need to go back to back. He didn’t quite have the same dream run through as last year but he had a super sharp Paul Townend in the saddle who made the right decisions in the right moment to ensure ABP endured as little trouble as possible.

He beat Santini in a brilliant finish. In third, my selection, Lostintranslation, ran a massive race. The two possible improvers were good enough to beat the rest of the field, as was my expectation before the race. But they were not quite good enough (yet?) to beat the defending champion.

After the week didn’t start too well for Paul Townend, he finished it off with a week that’ll go down in history. Champion jockey and the man who steered a horse to defend the crown in the Gold Cup. He doesn’t always get it right. But who does? Ruby and AP didn’t. What matters is that Paul Townend got it as right as it gets at the grandest of stages. That makes him a top top class jockey.

I will review Cheltenham tomorrow afternoon on Dublin City FM. Tune in if you like. Beyond that, I gonna struggle on in an attempt to get by betting back on track. Thankfully the flat is around the corner.

………..

6.00 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 9.5f

The money is pouring in for Taurean Dancer who returns from a break with a first time visor fitted and Rossa Ryan in the saddle for what is his only ride on the card.

Whether this Taurean Dancer’s optimum trip is a question mark, given his career best topspeed rating came over further. However hes form over shorter as well, having been beaten only by a neck at Kempton over a mile of a much higher rating in the past.

I imagine he’ll be ridden forward in order to set a good pace and use his undoubtedly existing stamina. As he can be keen, this should suit him well in a race that is wide open.

Selection:
10pts win – Taurean Dancer @ 11/1 MB

Betting

Cheltenham 2020: Friday Preview

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Winner!

Oh Melon…. right before the line and after the line in front but not on the line – where it mattered. Tough to take. This year really tests my mental strengths. It’s the second tight finish this week (Abacadabras) that went against my horse. Kilfilum Cross was another runner-up, albeit fair and square beaten.

Final day of the Festival. Even though it went decent enough so far, I really could do with a big winner. On a different note: how Cheltenham can go on while every other sporting event worldwide is cancelled due to COVID-19 is hard to understand.

I mean don’t get me wrong: I’m home bound, so happy it’s on. But from a pure risk management perspective this looks wrong.

………

1.30 Triumph Hurdle, 2m 1f

This is a wide open race as the betting suggests. The completely unexposed Solo is probably the one most likely to be a superstar. If he finds this a bit too much, though, there is anything up for grabs.

The one that looks completely overpriced is the JP owned Cerberus. If not for idling when seemingly having won the Spring Juvenile Hurdle, he’d be a Grade 1 winner and much shorter today.

He’s jumping generally fine and economically, has run as fast on the ratings front to suggest he belongs here and is much closer matched to Allmankind that the bare Chepstow form would suggest.

Re-watch the race and you’ll see the field gifted the eventual winner an easy lead, and while Cerberus made nice progress at the latter stages, Robby Power was taking a bit pull before approaching the last, which meant the ground made up was lost in an instant. He was pretty kind on the gelding in the finish, is fair to say.

The 5 place offer with William Hill looks attractive. I firmly believe he’ll be in the money. But the win odds on the exchange are much bigger and even better value.

Selection:
10pts win – Cerberus @ 24/1 MB

……..

2.10 County Hurdle, 2m 1f

Oakley ticks a lot of boxes trend wise but also form wise. I really liked his most recent effort in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury when pretty much all went against him that could.

Good ground was certainly not what he wants, a standing start didn’t help with finding a good position early on, and then being hampered by fallers at the last was still not enough to see him finishing strongly, resulting in an eye-catching performance that also looks good rating wise.

He’s one of few in the field who has already proven to be able to run as fast as his handicap mark warrants. Oakley has performed with plenty of credit this season, including course form, including a neck beaten runner-up effort over this CD.

Selection:
10pts win – Oakley @ 29/1 MB

………

2.50 Albert Bartlett, 3 miles

Experience can count for a lot here, so does stamina. With that in mind Ramses De Teillee should have a tremendous chance to be in the shake-up at the very least.

He’s reverted back to hurdling, although he was quite a good staying chaser, actually. A runner-up in the Welsh Grand National, he also achieved a topspeed rating of 149, which is the highest in this field and manifests his status as a graded horse.

Ramses De Teillee has won his last two starts, so comes here in fine form and is sure to stay every inch of the uphill finish to the line.

Selection:
10pts win – Ramses De Teillee @ 14/1 MB

……..

3.30 Gold Cup, 3m2½f

After landing the big pot twelve months ago as a 22/1 longshot (and I backed him!), Al Boum Photo holds a special place in my heart. Emotions aside, he looks the type capable of doing the seemingly impossible: defending his crown!

Part of the reason why I believe he has quite a decent chance is simply down to the opposition. Make no mistake this is a good and deep Gold Cup field – but without any true superstar to beat, other than ABP himself. That may change post race; as of now Al Boum Photo looks the clear favourite in my book.

The other reason to believe he can do it is the ideal preparation the 8-year-old enjoyed. He went down the same route as last year, he comes here fresh on the back of a fine effort at Tramore. Since Cheltenham he only ran twice: the aforementioned January race and a fair runner-up effort behind Kemboy at Punchestown.

ABP is still relatively low mileage and even though he may not improve any further, he doesn’t have to: an effort as good as twelve months ago will see him probably hard to beat.

The one thing that does potentially speak against him is the fact that last year he got pretty much a dream run through the race. Everything worked to perfection. That may not be the case this time.

Nonetheless it’s reasonable to attest that 10/3 is at the very least a fair price – potentially even too big. Still, I feel there is better value in the field for the fact that I do want to have an improving horse on my side.

I don’t think Delta Work is good enough. He’s a contender but a silly price for all what he has done so far. Particularly if leaving naked form aside – which can mislead – and look what’s under the hood, it becomes clear he simply hasn’t ran particularly fast yet. He may well be capable of doing so, but fact remains in 17 starts over fences or hurdles he never bettered a 132 topspeed rating. That’s not up to scratch for a proper Gold Cup horse.

Granted these ratings are to be taken with a pinch of salt and Al Boum Photo didn’t achieve that either before his Gold Cup victory. He had, though, less chances to do so and you could make a reasonable case to believe why he might be able to step up to the required form, plus he was a much bigger price, than Delta Work is today. Not to forget ABP ran to a 177 TS rating in the Gold Cup eventually.

Kemboy has been disappointing this season. His jumping makes him vulnerable. If he gets his act together he is a live chance, nonetheless, and a far better one than Delta Work.

Presenting Percy had enough opportunities to prove he is a top class staying chaser. He hasn’t quite delivered the goods as many would have hoped he would at this stage last year. He has place claims if at his best.

As impressive as Clan Des Obeaux is at Kempton, he will likely struggle here once more. Bristol De Mai can run his race and could be an interesting each-way candidate at massive odds.

That leaves the two potential improvers. Santini and Lostintranslation.

Santini has been touted a Gold Cup horse for a while and to his credit he has answered the calls when landing the Cotswold Chase this season. A breathing operation has clearly helped. He has the right profile and looks to have talent in abundance, with more to come.

The same can be said about Lostintranslation. However his star has faded a little bit since the King George where was pulled up. He had a wind OP in the meantime, though.

You have to believe that procedure has helped to rectify the issues he clearly had in December. If it has and you ignore the King George, you see a progressive staying chaser who was a fine winner of the Haydock Betfair Chase, which made him a short price for the King George in first place.

What I appreciate most about Lostintranslation: he is not a pure stayer but has proven speed. He has both: speed and stamina. That is the magic combination for a true Gold Cup contender.

Therefore, at given prices I have to side with him. He ticks nearly all the right boxes. Only the King George and recent wind operation are question marks; hence he isn’t 3/1 but rather 11/1, which is over the top and the fair price is probably somewhere in the middle.

Selection:
10pt win – Lostintranslation @ 11/1 WH

…………

4.10 Foxhunter Hunters’ Chase, 3m2½f

The drift is a worry, but at this price, particularly each/way, too good to let go. Alcala has ran well to qualify for this race with two efforts within two weeks last month. That may have left a mark and possibly is a reason for the drift.

Hard to know. If he is fine, and one hopes he is if allowed to run, then Alcala must have a better chance to make the frame than 50/1 would suggest.

He’s a decent chaser who has won over this trip in the past and he’ll enjoy the drying ground. In an open contest he can outrun his price tag.

Selection:
5pts e/w (5pl) – Alcala @ 50/1 Bet365

Betting

Cheltenham 2020: Thursday Preview

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Cheltenham Finish

The tide has turned! Two successful selections on Wednesday: Politologue landed the Champion Chase, albeit one has to put an asterisk behind the word “Champion”, given the field lost two of its main attractions due to injury, while Defi Du Seuil didn’t fire at all.

Politologue galloped the decimated field into the ground from the front – he finally had his big day here, after chasing Altior home in the past. Rule 4 deduction is painful, it remains a double figure price, though.

Easywork finished a gallant second behind superb Envoy Allen. For a moment the favourite looked in trouble but only for a moment, until Envoy Allen motored home in impressive style. Easywork was plenty keen throughout the race, so his performance can be upgraded. The place part of the 22/1 each/way price was certainly a fine start to the second day of the Festival.

………

1.30 Marsh Novices’ Chase, 2m 4f

Possibly I eat my words later on: I simply can’t fathom who made Samcro a favourite for this race… and who are those people backing him at the prices on offer? Insanity. It’s grand memories attached to the name of Samcro. Those memories have faded, though.

The Ballymore is two years old, and his best performance rating wise is a runner-up effort over hurdles. Sorry, but this lad isn’t a superstar and will struggle here, even though there is some danger attached to these words given a recent wind operation.

That may help him to find a bit more, but you can’t tell me he had all the years wind issues and only now these are notices and rectified?

Probably an even bigger surprise is to see 12-year-old Faugheen looming large behind Samcro in the betting. At least surprising in that sense as only a few months ago that sort of scenario would have been laughable.

Not so funny any more: Faugheen is the one they all have to beat. He has the best form in the book. And he is, around 5/1, actually a price to seriously consider. If he’d be two years younger I’d back him. I simply can’t however, bring myself to back a 12-year-old. Particularly after he had a very hard race at Leopardstown.

Sure, that was last month, plenty of time to recover. Yet I remember other veterans – Kauto Star or Hurricane Fly – who turned the clock back during the season before coming to Cheltenham in March when all that was left in the tank they gave in the races leading up to getting them there to the Festival in their grand age in first place.

In my opinion there isn’t all that much substance in this race. Itchy Feet is interesting, though what did he beat at Sandown? Improving Mister Fisher has an intriguing profile without having set the world alight.

That brings me to my selection: Melon. A quirky horse, a poor win record, still searching for a first success on the highest level. But clearly there is a lot to like as well. He was a top class hurdler nonetheless. if not for a neck, he could be a Champion Hurdler. He finished twice a runner-up in that race, plus a second place in the Supreme. Clearly he comes alive at Cheltenham.

Melon has taken well to fences in three starts. A second behind Fakir D’oudairies on his debut run – a good piece of form given Fakir D’oudairies has franked the form with a strong second in the Arkle on Tuesday.

Melon had to work hard but eventually prevailed with more than two lengths to spare subsequently at Leopardstown. That form doesn’t look too shabby either. What became apparent then and also the next time when disappointing in the Irish Arkle that Melon has lost a bit of speed and particularly over fences seem to cry out for a step up in trip.

He has to prove to truly stay the longer distance, but in theory it should slow things a little bit down, which may help his jumping, which can be a bit sketchy sometimes. But then, he can learn and improve as well. It’s noteworthy when Willie Mullins says:

“He’s shown us that he needs two and a half miles. He has good Festival form and if he has a clear round of jumping, I think he’ll go close.”

That sums it up for me. With the potential that the trip helps his jumping and a bit more improvement to come from experience over fences, together with his excellent Cheltenham record and whatever ground we have come race time unlikely to bother him, I feel Melon is overpriced in this wide open contest.

Selection:
10pts win – Melon @ 15/1 MB

………..

2.10 Pertemps Final, 3 miles

I am quite keen on Dingo Dollar here. 50/1 with six (even seven, if you’re lucky) places on offer looks foolish to leave on the table. He may well find a few too good or too speedy, particularly if the ground dries out further. At the same time he comes here potentially well handicapped.

The 8-year-old has established himself as a fine staying chaser, but has also two victories and two placed efforts from seven hurdle starts to his name. he can race of 4lb lower than his current rating over fences, and done okay in three starts this season, including when qualifying on his seasonal reappearance for the Pertemps.

Dino Dollar is a no-nonsense, simply horse to ride. Up with the pace, which will hopefully eliminate potential in-running trouble. He stays all day long but also has speed ratings that can match the ones of the more favoured individuals in this race.

Selection:
5pts e/w (6pl) – Dingo Dollar @ 50/1 BF

……..

3.30 Stayer’s Hurdle, 3m

Paisley Park will be the banker of the week for many. And rightly so. You can’t fault the defending champion. He appears to be the perfect horse for this race. In saying that, this is racing, things can go wrong and there is always a “new kid on the block” from time to time that will challenge the leader of the pack.

Summerville Boy came close in the Cleeve Hurdle. He had the champ off the bridle before turning for home and made him work hard for the eventual victory. I can see a scenario where Summerville Boy can turn this around; more so I can’t see many scenarios where he won’t be in the money at the very least.

Nonetheless it remains still only a slim hope that the former Supreme winner can turn the form with the almighty Paisley Park. The “new kid on the block” who offers a little bit more hope is City Island.

Last years excellent Ballymore winner, beating Champ, who we all remember now for his dramatic RSA victory.

City Island went chasing after his successful, albeit short, hurdling career. It never worked out. Connections done the wise thing and revert back to the smaller obstacles.

The 8-year-old has a lot to find with Paisley Park. By no means its a given he’ll do that. However, coming here off a recent wind OP, the ground on the new course not quite as soft and potentially further drying come race time, is a positive. That offers the potential, in combination with the new trip, of improvement. Not to forget, he’s four from five over hurdles.

Whether that’ll be enough to go close, and whether City Island has retained appetite for the game as well as being able to revert back to slick jumping over hurdles is another question. At given prices he’s certainly overpriced and can give the favourite a run for the money.

Selection:
10pts win – City Island @ 18/1 MB

……..

5.30 Kim Muir, 3m 2f

It’s a bit of a shame I left the analysis of this race so late because I missed nearly missed the boat. Meaning, the price for my selection is borderline now. Kilfilum Cross remains value, despite the big field.

The still relatively lightly raced 8-year-old finished an excellent runner-up in this twelve month ago. He jumped the last narrowly in the lead and only missed out to Any Second up the hill.

That is a superb piece of form and today Kilfilum Cross can run of one pound lower than last year! He comes here in excellent form after a fine runner-up performance at Kempton. The wind OP seem to work. He ran a career best RPR and TS that day.

The ground is fine today, the race, although competitive in field size, is not the strongest. Kilfilum Cross has a fine chance to go one better this afternoon.

Selection:
10pts win – Kilfilum Cross @ 9.2/1 MB

Betting

Cheltenham Festival 2020 – Wednesday Preview

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A winner?! A feeling I forget exist: enjoying one of my selections crossing the line in first.

I can’t quite remember the last time this happened – it’s been a while – even though it looked like coming when Abacadabras traveled like a dream through the Supreme, despite a slightly awkward start, and getting hampered by a faller, he looked like the winner turning for home…. only to be denied on the line. Of course!

Thankfully Honeysuckle ended my incredibly brutal losing run, beating Benie Des Dieux in a brilliant finish. It was a superb ride by Rachel Blackmore, who continues to prove female jockeys certainly can be at the very top of the game.

I could do a with a few more winners now. Have a lot of catching up to do in order to get 2020 back into the green. The second day of the Festival is a tasty one, although again a tricky puzzle to solve as usual. All selections are big prices which increased the chance for a blank day on the winners front.

………..

1.30 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, 2m 5f

On paper Envoy Allen looks the banker of the day. He may well be. If he can continue to improve he’s hard to beat. Will he, though?

You can argue he didn’t have to be pushed to the limits in his last two starts. There is a good chance he can pull out more. At the same time, at least on the rating front, Envoy Allen is good but not overwhelmingly brilliant. RPR’s and TS ratings are to be taken with a pinch of salt in jump racing, yet have some merit.

On that front, second favourite Sporting John is a highly intriguing rival. All the time improving, his Kempton performance was simply stunning and looks excellent on the rating front too. Unfortunately I am too late to the party: the juice is out of the price. Factoring in his general inexperience, having never raced on these terms, I have to leave him alone.

Brings to my selection: a rare each-way one: Easywork appears to be a massive price. I believe he’s harshly judged by his runner-up effort – albeit a long way beaten – behind Asterion Forlonge, who didn’t run too badly in a super competitive Supreme today btw..

Relativally decent ground over two miles was clearly against Easywork that day. Stepping up to 2m 4f with plenty of juice in the ground is much more to his liking. He showed his talent already this season winning three on the bounce, in pretty good style, all of these victories came on soft or heavy going.

Selection:
5pts e/w – Easywork @ 22/1 WH

………

2.10 RSA Chase, 3m½f

What a competitive renewal: the betting says it all with four horses heading the market with less than two points between them. I personally think there a few behind them that can’t be discounted either. Certainly form wise the first five, six in the market are rather closely matched anyway.

Certainy overpriced is Battleoverdoyen. He probably would right in the mix at the top of the market if not for an usually poor showing in Flogas at Leopardstown. He was effectively beaten before falling at the last.

That’s a big question mark obviously. He was apparently pretty sore and 50/50 running at the Festival, only a fortnight ago. That’s a reflection of his price tag.

Nonetheless, even taking that into account, he remains an exciting prospect. Battleoverdoyen was classy hurdler, although twelve month ago was disappointingly pulled up in the Ballymore.

The big, rangy gelding was always a chaser in the making. And he took well to fences, winning three on the trot, including a small-field Grade 1 over Christmas.

Three miles om soft ground won’t be a problem. The fact Battleoverdoyen usually travels strongly and is a good jumper will count for a lot in what could well turn out to be a war of attrition. That sort of race could easily put Copperhead at an advantage, who has been quite impressive as well, and would be my most likely winner.

At given odds, even with the risk of the recent fall attached, Battleoverdoyen is clearly one who’s much bigger than he should be.

Selection:
10pts win – Battleoverdoyen @ 14.5/1 MB

……..

2.50 Coral Cup, 2m 5f

In a tricky affair where in-running luck will play a role Protektorat stands out to me. His style of running, and the fact he can b a quirky sort, adds to the risk of needing things to fall right. On the other hand he ticks a lot of boxes which outweigh the risk given the price.

The five-year-old is an improving individual, having ran well here at Cheltenham already, will enjoy the ground and will stay the trip. He ran with plenty of credit finishing third under a penalty when last seen here, following from a Listed victory at this venue, if not for a demotion post race.

A mark of 144 gives him a really nice weight in this contest where few make appeal on that front. French bred with speed – and Protektorat has shown to have a bit of speed as well as staying ability – tend to do well in this race.

Selection:
10pts win – Protektorat @ 16.5/1 MB

………..

3.30 Champion Chase, 2m

With absence of Altior this race is wide open, despite two seemingly clear horses leading the market. There is little in the betting between Defi Du Seuil and Chacun Pour Soi, even though personally the potential improvement that can still come from Willie Mullins’s charge would sway me to believe he is the one to beat today.

Nonetheless this race is wide open for the fact that both these star names have actually never ran to speed figures that are mind blowing. Not yet at least. That is in contrast to Altior or other top class Champion Chasers of the past. Defi Du Seuil and Chacun Pour Soi may still be the best of the rest today and for that reason land a Champion Chase, but I firmly believe they are not as much clear of the other four runners.

The two I think have a chance to get much closer than there odds suggest are the runner-up and third of the 2019 Champion Chase.

Look back at the reply of what as hugely exciting race, that produced strong ratings and see how both Politologue and Sceau Royal had the almighty Altior off the bridle and hard working two from home. In fact Sceau Royal traveled much the best!

This was a career best performance for both horses. However, they have proven in the past – at leas on ratings – to be on par with the two market principles. Both are proven in Championship races.

Sceau Royal was beaten by DDS this season, however that was on his seasonal reappearance. In his next two starts he has shown himself in good nick, including a fine second behind Altior in the Game Spirit Chase. He’s likely to run his race today, and if he does run to form then he’s a much better chance than 25/1.

Politologue has already been beaten twice by DDS this season. He was a close enough runner-up on his comeback run but bitterly disappointing in the Tingle Creek. That wasn’t his true showing.

He will need to bounce back and there is risk attached to a 9-year-old with so much racing under his belt already.If he can bounce back he’s in it with a fair shout, having run well at Cheltenham in the past.

Selection:
5pts win – Politologue @ 19/1 MB
5pts win – Sceau Royal @ 26/1 MB

……….

5.30 Champion Bumper, 2m½f

Willie Mullins could have another winner in this one with Appreciate It who is a rock solid favourite in my book. Nonetheless he is a short enough price to look what’s further down the market in what appears otherwise an open race.

Ask A Honey Bee is one that catches the eye with his three bumper wins, particularly as he defied a double-penalty when last seen! I also appreciate the fact the six-year-old has plenty of experience, as beside those 3 NHF races, he also has ample point-to-point experience.

Further to this Ask A Honey Bee clocked a solid topspeed figure on his penultimate run, which can’t be said for many in this field. He is a fine each/way shout.

Selection:
5pts e/w – Ask A Honey Bee @ 44/1 WH

Betting

Cheltenham Festival 2020 – Tuesday Preview

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The Festival

Here we are: Cheltenham 2020! The festival has been good to me over the last number of years. More of that this week please – I could do with a few positive results after a start to the year that can only be described in one word: catastrophic!

Day one looks pretty tricky, at the same time offers plenty of value in the market. Rain has soften the ground significantly and adds extra spice to open contests.

Unlike in previous years there are few red hot favourites, heading the betting at short odds. I can see some big prices making the frame – one of those winning for me would a unimaginable relieve as at this point I simply wonder if I ever will back a winner again?!

From a pure racing perspective the championship races are highly intriguing, more so by the lack of odds-on favourites. Although not a vintage year, the Champion Hurdle makes for a compelling puzzle to solve, whereas Supreme and Arkle shaping like unmissable contests with future starts in their respective divisions unleashed.

…………..

1.30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, 2m½f

Highly competitive. Plenty of exciting novice hurdlers in the field. Usually a fast start to the Festival and the year: plenty of pace, crowd noise, nervousness among the jockeys.

I feel experience will count for a lot. Hence I like Abacadabras. Fourth in the Champion Bumper last year, he made a seamless transition to hurdles, having four already under his belt, winning a first Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas and only been beaten by sublime Envoi Allen at Fairyhouse.

He tends to travel well, has been here before, has proven to run fast, can jump straight and is tactically versatile, giving Davy Russell plenty of options.

Selection:
10pts win – Abacadabras @ 11/2 MB

……….

2.10 Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase, 2m

The one completely forgotten here, particularly in the soft ground conditions, is Global Citizen. He’s been classy hurdler over two miles, which tends to be a good indicator for this race, and since switching to fences has left a poor start to his chasing career behind when winning impressively at Kempton last time.

That Grade 2 at Kempton looks useful form, but it’s more the way Global Citizen went over his business that is noteworthy. He was pretty keen, set a fast clip, jumped pretty well – much improved to his debut – and held off the advances of his rivals in fine style in the end, finding plenty when needed.

He’s got to bring this to Cheltenham and is unlikely to get an easy lead, however it’s his now proven ability to jump at speed that can be key in the Arkle.

Selection:
10pts win – Global Citizen @ 22.5/1 MB

……….

2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase, 3m 1f

Stamina is key in this race, so my eventual choice is a risk, but beside the favourite Vindication, who is, on the other hand a rather short price for a race like this, I struggle to identify many who are ahead of their respective handicap marks.

Who Dares Wins could be on his handicap debut, though. Whether he well and truly stays the distance, particularly on soft ground all the way up the hill remains to be seen. Fact he has been here before, ran well at two Festivals before, particularly in the Pertemps two years ago.

That day he lead the field to the final hurdle but faltered into finishing fifth eventually. That’s an obvious negative. On the other hand, Who Dares Wins potentially saw daylight a little bit too early, certainly compared to the winner and runner-up who were asked all questions a little bit later.

With that in mind, this performance also gives hope as Who Dares Wins is a little bit older now and has proven his ability to on the flat to stay marathon trips. He also could be rather well handicapped on his chasing debut after having landed a Grade 2 in Novice company at Kempton when last seen, with an opening mark of 147, which is 4lb lower than his hurdling mark.

Selection:
10pts win – Who Dares Wins @ 15/1 MB

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3.30 Champion Hurdle, 2m½f

A rather ordinary renewal with plenty of question marks hanging over the market principles. The mare Epatante looks a fair favourite, if nothing else. With plenty of pace this race is unlikely to turn into a pure speed test and I’m not sure whether that truly suits her.

This should suite, however, quite clearly Supasundae. It’s probably fair to argue two miles isn’t quite is optimum trip, on the other hand there is plenty of evidence he is – or least used to be – highly effective over the minimum distance as much as over further:

A winner and runner-up in the Irish Champion Hurdle, a Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner and a decent 4th on his seasonal reappearance in the 2020 Irish Champion Hurdle back in February; Supasundae doesn’t seem to slow down too much, even though turning ten now.

He is still a class act in this field and I feel the likely setup of the race will be an advantage to him. Hi experience, having been around Cheltenham numerous times is another bonus.

Selection:
10pts win – Supasundae @ 11.5/1 MB

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4.10 Mares’ Hurdle, 2m 4f

A fascinating clash between two top mares, albeit the market has Benie Des Dieux a clear favourite, which seems fair, given the should be a hat-trick seeking Festival winner if not for a fall at the last twelve months ago.

The question is, though: is the 9-year-old that far ahead of the young challenger Honeysuckle? We’ll find out today. As it stands now I come to the conclusion to answer this question with a “No”.

BDD has stellar form in the book and look as imperious as ever at Gowran Park in what was her sole outing this season. She has the experience, is fresh and clearly in top form.

Honeysuckle in contrast had quite a few more races this season already, advancing through the ranks, landing the Irish Champion Hurdle when last seen, and connections seriously pondered whether a bid for THE Champion Hurdle should be the race to go for.

It was a widely shared opinion in the aftermath of Leoprdstown that Honeysuckle didn’t quite jumped that well and wasn’t as brilliant as expected. That is to some extend a fair comment.

On the other hand, the Irish Champion Hurdle was still an excellent contest, she beat some really good horses, would be at the very least joint favourite for the Champion Hurdle if running there, and in my view, showed a lot of valuable traits in February, mainly the ability to dig deep and go through the wall when challenged heavily.

I also believe that stepping up to 2 miles & 4 furlongs, on soft ground can lead to further improvement for a mare that has only raced seven times and has won all of them. On the ratings front she ties in closely with BDD: their career best RPR’s and TS rating are only two and one pound off respectively.

With that in mind: Honeysuckle has to improve. But not by much. Given that, she is quite clearly overpriced.

Selection: 
10pts win – Honeysuckle @ 10/3 WH

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Edit: 10:45am – added Mares’ Hurdle