Tag Archives: All-Weather

Betting

Monday Selections: 3rd February 2025

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It’s St Brigid’s Day, which marks the the beginning of spring, and I can certainly feel a spring in my step, knowing the days get longer, the sun is supposed to show itself more often from now on, and the flat season isn’t too far away, either.

It’s a low-key racing day in Ireland, where today is also a public holiday, as well as the usual stuff in the UK on a typical Monday during the winter months. But I’ve got some spare time on my hands and found two decent looking bets to try and make the day pay, nonetheless.

Looking 5km to the south from where I live, lies Punchestown. It’s not a card that gets me out of the door to get myself over there today, but the 4.10 Mares Handicap Hurdle appears to shape like an intriguing race.

In this race over 2m 7f it should pay dividends to be close to the pace, given more than half the field may not want to be to soon in front.

Slotty Dotty and Slim Marvel, currently first and second favourite in the betting, could be ideally placed, while No Fussing, who also features prominently in the market, could be left with a lot to do when it matters most.

Slotty Dotty, thanks to her recent course win, stares as the natural favourite. However, despite that commanding 7 lengths victory over 2m 6f, it was a poor race, and she has to define a 10lb hike in her mark also.

Slim Marvel in contrast drops into an easier race after a superb runner-up effort from out of the weights at Cork over todays trip, beaten behind a winner who was highly tried subsequently.

She won a maiden hurdle in July and was placed off 102 and 104 (107 effectively) and this is only her sixth handicap run, and the first time on this type of deep ground. She was placed in maiden hurdle on heavy going, though.

There could be improvement to come in these conditions over this trip, given ran well to the the line, jumped and travelled strongly, and was only beaten by a better quality of horse, that she is unlikely to meet today.

At about 5/1 on the exchanges I’ll take the punt that she gets home strongly today.

Over at Wolverhampton the lucky last 8.30 6f Handicap appeals from a pace point of view. Few want the lead here, which could add to the overall bias towards front-runners.

Nevernay is one who doesn’t mind to run from the front or race prominently, at the very least, and has ran his best races if allowed to stride on.

From the #6 draw he shouldn’t have too much trouble to move forward here. This 11-race maiden drops ever so slightly in class and has been given an opportunity by the handicapper as well, having dropped the gelding to 59.

He ran a huge race over 7f at this venue back in December, though doing too much during the mid-section of the race, and didn’t quite get home to finish 3rd, only 1.5l beaten in the end.

A poor showing at Southwell subsequently, was followed by an awkward effort three weeks ago at Southwell. He was seriously keen, and hard to keep in check by an inexperienced female rider. The race was lost in the first two furlongs. but as a consequence he can race officially in 0-60 off 59 now.

If Nevernay can find back the form he showed in December, he’ll be a big chance today off this mark. Adding to the intrigue is the headgear combination of hood and tongue tie.

The yard has had plenty of success with this type of headgear in the past, so if it can help him to settle, and he is up with the pace, he may not be stopping and hard to peg back.

Joanna Mason goes through a dry spell at the moment, but normally as good rides for the yard, so the booking adds more cautious optimism to the chances of this son of No Nay Never. There is some money coming this morning, so at 9’s he’s one I back.

Selections:
10pts win – Slim Marvel @ 5/1
10pts win – Nevernay @ 8/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 19th November 2024

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4.15 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Princess Shabnam was perhaps a little bit too keen at Chelmsford when last seen, but still ran a big race for 3rd place, only a 1¼L beaten in the end.

She may get the opportunity to dominate today again – if she can overcome the #7 draw once again. That’s often a significant advantage at this track.

After that recent Chelmsford performance she’s now down to a mark of 75 and drops in class – for the first time into a class 5 Handicap.

Headgear is off today also, that’s intriguing, given four of her five career wins came without any headgear, and she clearly remains with appetite for the game, judged by her recent runs.

Her Southwell performance in October caught the eye in no uncertain way: she went right to the front and set way too hot early fractions. It wasn’t a surprise to see her fade away eventually but it was a strong run, nonetheless, confirming the excellent form the mare produced over the last weeks and months.

Especially her Kempton 2nd place in September counts as seriously strong form, given the way she held on for so long, with the winner ridden with a lot more patience, as she achieved a 80 speed rating also that day – close to her career-best on the sand.

The yard isn’t in great form, though, but the runners tend to perform better than expectation at this track. Others see more money this morning in the betting, so Princess Shabnam drifted out from early 9/2 to 6s+ readily available.

10pts win – Princess Shabnam @ 6/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 16th November 2024

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6.18 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

Not much pace in this race, that could play natural front-runner Jumeira Vision into his hands, who won’t mind getting an easy lead on his own.

The gelding impressed last month over this course and distance when he led for most of the race, setting a hot pace, with a trio of horses closely following on his heels.

He kept going nicely, while they fell away in the second half of the race, and kept on for a decent 4th place finish, outrunning his 28/1 price tag.

This was a serious performance and suggests this stiffer test over a mile at Newcastle could really suit, given on the AW his best came over a bit further.

He won well last November over 9.5f at Wolverhampton off 4lb higher (also career-best speed rating) and earlier this year on turf over 8.5f off his current 58 rating.

If today doesn’t work out he still has the option to drop down to an easier grade, and remains of high interest, given all his wins came in class 6 in the past.

But with the CD and pace possibly to suit, in an open contest, Jumeira Vision should have a proper chance to out run his price once again, at the very least.

10pts win – Jumeira Vision @ 8/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 7th November 2024

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5.05 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

The pace scenario could play into the hands of possibly quite well-handicapped top-weight Strong Johnson. He drops ever so slightly in class, after a couple of strong runs lately.

He can track the pace but is also happy enough in front on his own – with not too much other pace to worry about here in this race today, he could be in an ideal position when it matters most.

His most recent third place effort at Southwell was a big run. That piece of form looks already quite strong the way it starts to work out. He could be the next nto winner.

That day he was soon chasing the leader, having a perfect #2 draw, but also he was doing a lot in the first half of the race, as did the other more prominent races.

Nonetheless, he travelled quite well into the home straight and showed and excellent attitude in the closing stages as he kept going strongly in an attempt to fend of multiple challengers

He achieved a 70 speed rating there, which matched his current mark. He also showed a handful of decent performances this season without getting his head in front, though.

The handicapper has been kind, left him on 70, and given he won off a good deal higher twelve months ago over this course and distance, he must be a prime chance today.

10pts win – Strong Johnson @ 9/2

………

8.00 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Princess Shabnam could be the lone speed here, if she can overcome the #7 draw. That’ll be a huge advantage to this speedy, who’s showing excellent form lately.

A fortnight ago over this course and distance she went right to the front and set way too hot early fractions. It wasn’t a surprise to see her fade away eventually.

This was a strong run, nonetheless, confirming the excellent form the mare produced over the last weeks and months.

Especially her Kempton 2nd place in September counts as seriously strong form, given the way she held on for so long, with the winner ridden with a lot more patience, as she achieved a 80 speed rating also that day – close to her career-best on the sand.

She’s down to a mark of 76 now, and ideally would drop in class, but today looks a weak 0-78 Handicap. With a possible pace advantage, she must go close.

10pts win – Princess Shabnam @ 7/2

Betting

Monday Selections: 4th November 2024

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7.45 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Oso Rapido looks poised for a big run here as he returns to the course and distance he caught my eye three weeks ago in no uncertain manner.

The 7-year-old gelding drops ever so slightly in grade as well, and should find this an ideal trip on the sand for him, given the pace scenario could also help to make it a gruelling test today.

Not as prolific on the All-Weather, as on turf, Oso Rapido had no too many opportunities to run 6f on the AW, though:

Found out for class in class 3 a few years ago, but he managed a win and the most recent excellent 3rd place in his four starts over 6 furlongs on the All-Weather.

Three weeks ago at this course and distance, he overcame the widest draw thanks to a rapid start, charging up wide to grab the lead just before the bend. He kept going for 3rd place – a massive performance in a decent field.

In fact, the three horses in chasing pack that followed Oso Rapido have won in the meantime. Oso Rapido himself was a bit disappointing at Redcar last week, but he was beaten by the way the race developed in another pretty hot class 5 Handicap for this time of the year.

Today is much easier, although the pace could be hot. The positive thing is that Oso Rapido doesn’t have to lead, he can follow who ever wants to make it. In fact, a good pace will be to his benefit, given he can stretch out to 7 furlongs as well.

10pts win – Oso Rapido @ 11/2

Betting

Friday Selections: 1st November 2024

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7.00 Dundalk: Handicap (50-80), 1m

Punk Poet could have found an ideal opportunity to get back to winning ways. He returns to the mile trip, his preferred course and distance, will enjoy a decent draw and showed plenty of encouraging signs three weeks ago at this venue.

That day over 7 furlongs, he had to overcome a wide #12 draw but quickly managed to grab the lead moving up on the outside in the first furlong, just before hitting the bend.

Largely leading uncontested – he also did a lot to keep it that way – Punk Poet travelled best into the home straight, kept going strongly under pressure, before getting tired in the final furlong to finish a gallant 3rd place.

This was a huge run, following on from two decent prior runs, as he starts to take advantage of an easing mark. He’s dangerous off 73 over CD, 5lb lower than his last win twelve months.

He doesn’t look too far off that form, judged by this big performance, that also warranted a decent speed rating and a piece of form that works out well, given the 7th and 9th of that race performed strongly in the meantime.

Punk Poet could be hard to beat today, as he should be able to slot in right behind the likes of No Knee Ever and Rampage, should they elect to want to lead, or he can simply to his own thing from the front. The #5 draw allows for multiple options, and all should suit.

10pts win – Punk Poet @ 9/2

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers 24/25 #1

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Winter is coming… With that in mind I’m starting a fresh list of All-Weather eyecatchers for this new winter season.

All-Weather Eyecatchers is going to be a fortnightly updated list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the sand. Find all previous eyecatchers always here.

……..

Ancient Times
10/10/24 – 8.30 Southwell:

Right up with the fast pace, being just about the quickest through the early part of the race. Fought gamely but eventually fell away in the final furlong in a hot race.

One who caught the eye a number of times in the past. Down to a career-lowest mark, with options to improve on the AW. First run since a small break and could be dangerous in 0-70 class.

Oso Rapido
10/10/24 – 6.00 Southwell:

Overcame the widest draw thanks to a rapid start, charging up wide to grab the lead just before the bend. For a long time in the race, a massive performance in a decent field.

Not as prolific on the sand as on turf, but didn’t have too many chances to show his best over his preferred 6f on AW. Clearly in decent form, ran some fine races this season, and will benefit from a drop in grade.

Dimsons
10/10/24 – 7.15 Chelmsford:

Very keen from the #8 draw, moved forward, pulling hard in the lead. Got badly tired in the closing stages but was in the mix for a while in a strong race. Did better than bare form suggest here on handicap debut.

Seemed to have improved since being gelded. A drop in grade could help, maybe some headgear, given he can be quite free. Still lightly raced, may also enjoy a drop in trip. There should be a bit of improvement in him once the penny drops.

Punk Poet
11/10/24 – 6.30 Dundalk:

Moved quickly forward from a wide draw to grab the lead, uncontested, but also did a lot to keep it that way. Travelled best into the home straight, before getting tired in the final furlong.

Huge run, following on from to decent prior runs, staring to take advantage of an ease in the mark. Dangerous off 73, if the handicapper is kind, next time over 7f or perhaps slightly better over a mile at Dundalk from a better draw.

Won last November off 78 over a mile here, and doesn’t look too far off that form, judged by this big performance, that also warranted a decent speed rating.

Little Empire
11/10/24 – 6.30 Dundalk:

Runner-up in the Punk Poet race – had to overcome the widest draw. Travelled wide through the first furlong, before making rapid progress to settle just behind the leader. Gutsy in the closing staged to grab second eventually.

Could have still a bit more to offer on this surface off this sort of mark given he was largely progressive all season. Had valid excuses (ground and reared in stalls) in his last two runs.

Achieved a career-best speed rating here and hopefully the handicapper won’t react too harshly, then he’s a proper chance over 7f with a better draw.

Tamrat
11/10/24 – 7.00 Dundalk:

Quickest through the first two furlongs in a fast race. Never let the tempo ease too much and was going pretty well from the front, where not much else got involved. Eventually just beaten by a seriously well handicapped winner.

Clearly improved from the application of blinkers, as evident last time already. The drop in trip helped also here. Ran a career-best speed rating, in line with his current rating, that suggests now that the trip has been found he could have a good deal more to offer off this current rating.

Princess Shabnam
12/10/24 – 7.20 Chelmsford:

Set way too hot early fractions and no surprise to see her fade away eventually. Strong run, nonetheless, confirming the excellent form the mare produced over the last weeks and months.

The Kempton 2nd in September is seriously strong form, especially the way she held on for so long, with the winner ridden with a lot more patience, as she achieved a 80 speed rating also.

Strong Johnson
17/10/24 – 6.30 Southwell:

Soon chased the leader having a perfect #2 draw but also did a lot in the first half of the race. Travelled quite well into the home straight and showed excellent attitude in the closing stages to keep going despite multiple challengers to hold on for 3rd place.

Appears quite well handicapped now, achieved a 70 speed rating here, matching his current mark. Showed a handful of decent performances this season without winning, but now a return to the sand should help if the handicapper is kind.

At his best over 5f but stays the additional furlong. Won last November over the minimum trip at Newcastle.

Bell Shot
17/10/24 – 6.45 Chelmsford:

Quickly into the lead, set seriously hot fractions, helped by the eventual winner who pushed it further. Fell apart in the second half but no shame behind the impressive winner.

Ran to some serious ratings this season and should be able to translate this to the sand as well now. Will benefit from a drop in class and eased mark soon. Would also be intriguing if dropped in trip.

Hedge Fund
17/10/24 – 7.45 Chelmsford:

Moved forward from wide draw to grab the lead. Did way too much early on yet travelled very strongly into the home straight, still ahead at the final furlong marker.

Surely ready to win soon, down to a career-lowest mark, especially in a slightly easier race (0-80). Possesses enough pace to win over minimum trip as well.

Pop Dancer
17/10/24 – 8.15 Chelmsford:

Rapidly moved forward to win the race for the lead in the first furlong, doing too much there and then. Ran an honest race to the lead for 3rd eventually.

Slowly drops in the mark, coinciding with two improving performances lately. Not the force of old but in this grade always dangerous from the front when he can dominate.

Guiteau
19/10/24 – 6.00 Wolverhampton:

Off to a decent start from #5 to chase a hot pace. Midway followed the leader closely with small gap to the main field. Headed leader 2f out, but soon beaten. Ran honest race to the line.

Could become intriguing soon with additional help from handicapper and possible drop in class on the cards. Ran 3x 66 speed ratings on turf this year, and ran to a fair 59 speed rating here as well, a career-best on sand.

Salamanca Lad
19/10/24 – 7.00 Wolverhampton:

Brave performance from the front and only ran down deep in the final furlong, with the winner coming from well off the pace.

Two huge runs prior as well. The Sandown form worked out well in the meantime, and he ran a career-best speed rating at Southwell when beaten in the dying strides.

Uncomplicated front-runner, starts well, and could still be a couple of pounds ahead in the right race. Probably doesn’t truly stay 10f, although always a chance if no pace pressure.

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 10th July 2024

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4.55 Catterick: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

I’ve backed Kindest Nation before and am prepared to give her a final chance, today in a pretty poor race, with ground, trip and pace scenario likely to suit this filly.

I think she’s better than her official 70 rating in these conditions. I don’t think she appreciates any firm in the going, and that was the case the last two times.

As poor as the most recent Newmarket run looked, ground aside, from the #1 draw she was pretty early beaten, racing somewhat isolated toward the far rail early on, and first and second racing on the other side.

She ran much better the three times prior: first at Haydock, travelling well for quite a long time, but stuck behind the leaders for a run, before fading over the mile.

Her Sandown front-running performance in a hot Class 4 Handicap suggested she’s capable of winning in a slightly easier race off her then mark, so did that excellent runner-up performance at Beverley, where she followed-up on an eyecatching Southwell victory.

Kindest Nation remains lightly raced, this is only her 7th career start, fourth time in a Handicap, and probably only the second time over the ideal trip and ground.

Headgear on should help her to stay sharp and be fast out of the gate to get to an advantageous prominent racing position, given this course and distance but also the possible pace scenario. A solid 3lb claimer on board seems the “cherry on the cake”.

10pts win – Kindest Nation @ 15/2

……

7.10 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

If Covert Mission can regain some form second up off a small break he’ll be possibly hard to beat off a seriously dangerous mark over an ideal course and distance with a favourable pace scenario.

Granted, his last two runs have been poor showings. However, he missed the break at Bath and was stuck behind horses in the home straight, while he did way too much too soon from his #7 draw at Lingfield last time out.

Both races were deep and worked out well in the meantime. I feel those runs weren’t quite as bad as the bare form suggests. Especially as he dropped to a mark of 61 now, 4lb below his last winning mark overall, and 9lb below his last winning mark on sand.

The pace scenario looks probably favourable for him, especially from a low draw with not too many other aggressive possible leaders in the race.

Cheek-pieces are back on – he raced once with them a few years ago and finished a strong runner-up. So that’s another positive in my book.

This is a weak 0-65 Handicap for this time of the year on the All-Weather and Covert Mission looks seriously overpriced with the various bigger odds up for grabs on the exchanges.

10pts win – Covert Mission @ 10/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 20th June 2024

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2.50 Chelmsford: Class 4 – Handicap, 5f

Almaty Star was caught only in the dying stages at Lingfield earlier this month. She stays over the minimum trip with the cheek-pieces applied for a second time, able to race off the same mark.

She must have a cracking chance from the #1 draw here, even though there is tons of pace competition, it must be said. She caught the eye the last two times now, as her previous Windsor 2nd was also a strong front-running performance.

The filly has great early speed, which is vital over this course and distance, so she can utilise the draw to its fullest. She’s clearly in great form and a mark of 75 is not quite her ceiling. She ran to higher speed ratings in the past.

Obviously her win record is poor, but down to this career-lowest rating, with the top draw and a CD she finished second off 5lb higher last autumn, she’s got a prime chance in a race where few appear overly well-handicapped.

10pts win – Almaty Star @ 5/1

…….

4.50 Chelmsford: Class 5 – Handicap, 1m 2f

 Brassavola looks quite interesting back over this course and distance with a decent draw to attack the race from. She got quite close back in November where she was still leading at half a furlong from home.

Back then she had to overcome a wide draw and did a lot to get across and into a prominent racing position. She edged closer to the leader bit by bit and took it up entering the home straight only to get caught fairly late.

It was a somewhat similar story a few weeks ago at Lingfield where she moved forward from a wider than ideal draw, caught wide early on, before getting to the lead. She hit the home straight in front before getting tired in the final furlong.

Truth told, there are some questions about her stamina credentials over this trip. However, her pretty decent full-sister won in seriously deep ground over a mile and these last two times it was possibly the wide draw that was to her detriment.

With a better draw here, and not much pace competition, she should much easier get to the front. Blinkers fitted should her her to be sharp out of the gate too. This track can ride in favour of those up with the pace, even over these longer trips, especially when the pace is slow, it’s nearly impossible to make up ground.

The yard is in poor form, but hit the crossbar a number of times, so hopefully a turnaround is just around the corner. A good jockey booking will help too.

This family tends to do quite well on the sand, hence off a career-lowest mark  Brassavola looks more than capable of winning over this course and distance.

10pts win –  Brassavola @ 9/2

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 4th June 2024

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8.30 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Eldeyaar can be a frustrating sort, only two wins on the sand, while seemingly catching the eye on multiple occasions throughout his career, this lad is difficult to catch. Saying that, today looks a prime chance to score.

The 5-year-old gelding ran a massive race last time out over this course and distance. He was caught wide thanks to his draw and moved forward in the fastest part of the race on the outside to get close to the leader.

He made a strong move from 3 furlongs out and only got caught late, deep inside the final furlong, by two horses staying on from off the pace.

The handicapper has let his grip go, and Eldeyaar can race off 51 today once again. Though, he drops down a bit in class, and should have too much class, so to speak, for his rivals in this 0-55 Handicap, with his form and wellbeing assured over a course and distance all his sand wins have come.

Top pilot Callum Rodriguez is in the saddle today, and a decent #5 draw should help him not getting caught wide this time. He’s usually quick into stride, so a good position chasing the pace should be where we see him settle and then hopefully run away with it in the home straight.

Quite a bit of money is on its way this morning. Of course I missed the boat, checking my trackers too late. Currently 7/2 looks a big enough price, still, though, in a poor contest.

10pts win – Eldeyaar @ 7/2