Tag Archives: 2024

Betting

Preview: 2024 Betfair Chase

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3.05 Haydock: G1 Betfair Chase, 3m1½f

The 2024 Betfair Chase looks an intriguing affair and could evolve around how the pace develops in the first half, given the likely deep ground, with all the additional rain that’s falling.

Possible pace angle The Real Whacker showed excellent early season form three weeks ago when he won the Charlie Hall Chase thanks to a brave performance and a strong finish.

We know he likes to go from the front, although he can follow as well. That versatility could prove crucial in a race where some others may or may not want to go forward as well.

I have slight doubts whether only three weeks after such a huge run he can back it up in a strong field over a this trip in deep ground, especially if the pace is hot early on. Everything needs to fall right for him to win.

For all that, he’s an intriguing price to possibly find out with some small money, if they don’t press him early, he may have enough in the tank to stay in front for quite a while.

Bravemansgame has never quite looked the same horse he was in that brilliant 2023 season. Today fitted with blinkers, 2nd time after a wind operation, he’s hard to trust today – although Paul Nicholls has done it before, lest we forget the magic Kauto Star produced in this very race.

Ahoy Senor got the racing bubble talking after his recent seasonal reappearance – for all the wrong reasons, given the ride he received on the day, not quite giving him the best opportunity to win.

Up in trip will suit today, he should be okay on the ground and will strip fitter for the recent run. He’s not one to trust with your life, and I can see him struggling with his jumping if this turns into a proper test from early on.

Without the rain Hewick would have been a serious contender today. I quite liked his Down Royal return and this track will suit. But all his best form is on better ground. Hence he’s 14/1+ in the betting, and rightly so.

Exciting second-season chaser Grey Dawn is a fair favourite today. Progressive as a novice, he has shown he handles deep ground, has form over 3 miles and could see his King George and Gold Cup prospects improve significantly with a strong performance today.

The fact he’s only raced twice over 3 miles and never beyond yet is a question mark for me. He could well be capable, but he’s a short enough price to find out, and not good value in my book, for all that if he does get the trip in these conditions he’s certainly the one to beat.

Returning 2023 Betfair Chase winner Royale Pagaille has been only sighted once in the meantime – that was in January when he jumped badly and fell in the Cotswold Chase. He won this as as a fresh horse twelve months ago, so the absence isn’t a negative per se.

This course and distance and the deep ground is obviously what he loves, given his 4-3-1 record. You simply can’t deny that Royale Pagaille is a different horse here.

On the other hand, he’s a 10-year-old now. And younger legs may outrun him, ultimately. If he’d be a 6/1 chance I could be tempted. At 10/3 it’s not a bet I like to make.

I find it hard to fancy Gold Tweet, who would be a disappointing winner for the class of this race. Capodanno may prefer better ground over this longer trip, and isn’t one to fancy, either.

Limerick Lace progressed nicely over fences in the last two seasons, culminating in her victory in the Mares’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

She didn’t have the best of days in the Grand National subsequently, but there are valid excuses, and ultimately, she still managed to finish a gallant 10th, given all the things that went wrong there.

The mare clearly thrives in deep ground and could be a real danger toward the end of the race today, if she’s still in touch. She has yet to prove that she’s truly homer over 3 miles plus, although her Troytown runner-up performance gives hope.

She can be a bit sketchy jumping wise, and that’s a danger. If they go hard up front, and she gets too far behind, jumping poorly, it’ll be game over soon. At the same time, if they start racing from early on, her more patient running style could prove vital in the long home straight at Haydock.

From a price perspective, with the upside the progressive mare has, ground okay, trip possible okay, and the pace scenario possibly playing into her hands, she’s a nice bet that has still some juice left in the price.

Selections:
7pts win – Limerick Lace @ 8/1 SM
3pts win – The Real Whacker 15/1 SM
Betting

Tuesday Selections: 19th November 2024

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4.15 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Princess Shabnam was perhaps a little bit too keen at Chelmsford when last seen, but still ran a big race for 3rd place, only a 1¼L beaten in the end.

She may get the opportunity to dominate today again – if she can overcome the #7 draw once again. That’s often a significant advantage at this track.

After that recent Chelmsford performance she’s now down to a mark of 75 and drops in class – for the first time into a class 5 Handicap.

Headgear is off today also, that’s intriguing, given four of her five career wins came without any headgear, and she clearly remains with appetite for the game, judged by her recent runs.

Her Southwell performance in October caught the eye in no uncertain way: she went right to the front and set way too hot early fractions. It wasn’t a surprise to see her fade away eventually but it was a strong run, nonetheless, confirming the excellent form the mare produced over the last weeks and months.

Especially her Kempton 2nd place in September counts as seriously strong form, given the way she held on for so long, with the winner ridden with a lot more patience, as she achieved a 80 speed rating also that day – close to her career-best on the sand.

The yard isn’t in great form, though, but the runners tend to perform better than expectation at this track. Others see more money this morning in the betting, so Princess Shabnam drifted out from early 9/2 to 6s+ readily available.

10pts win – Princess Shabnam @ 6/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 16th November 2024

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6.18 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

Not much pace in this race, that could play natural front-runner Jumeira Vision into his hands, who won’t mind getting an easy lead on his own.

The gelding impressed last month over this course and distance when he led for most of the race, setting a hot pace, with a trio of horses closely following on his heels.

He kept going nicely, while they fell away in the second half of the race, and kept on for a decent 4th place finish, outrunning his 28/1 price tag.

This was a serious performance and suggests this stiffer test over a mile at Newcastle could really suit, given on the AW his best came over a bit further.

He won well last November over 9.5f at Wolverhampton off 4lb higher (also career-best speed rating) and earlier this year on turf over 8.5f off his current 58 rating.

If today doesn’t work out he still has the option to drop down to an easier grade, and remains of high interest, given all his wins came in class 6 in the past.

But with the CD and pace possibly to suit, in an open contest, Jumeira Vision should have a proper chance to out run his price once again, at the very least.

10pts win – Jumeira Vision @ 8/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 7th November 2024

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5.05 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

The pace scenario could play into the hands of possibly quite well-handicapped top-weight Strong Johnson. He drops ever so slightly in class, after a couple of strong runs lately.

He can track the pace but is also happy enough in front on his own – with not too much other pace to worry about here in this race today, he could be in an ideal position when it matters most.

His most recent third place effort at Southwell was a big run. That piece of form looks already quite strong the way it starts to work out. He could be the next nto winner.

That day he was soon chasing the leader, having a perfect #2 draw, but also he was doing a lot in the first half of the race, as did the other more prominent races.

Nonetheless, he travelled quite well into the home straight and showed and excellent attitude in the closing stages as he kept going strongly in an attempt to fend of multiple challengers

He achieved a 70 speed rating there, which matched his current mark. He also showed a handful of decent performances this season without getting his head in front, though.

The handicapper has been kind, left him on 70, and given he won off a good deal higher twelve months ago over this course and distance, he must be a prime chance today.

10pts win – Strong Johnson @ 9/2

………

8.00 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Princess Shabnam could be the lone speed here, if she can overcome the #7 draw. That’ll be a huge advantage to this speedy, who’s showing excellent form lately.

A fortnight ago over this course and distance she went right to the front and set way too hot early fractions. It wasn’t a surprise to see her fade away eventually.

This was a strong run, nonetheless, confirming the excellent form the mare produced over the last weeks and months.

Especially her Kempton 2nd place in September counts as seriously strong form, given the way she held on for so long, with the winner ridden with a lot more patience, as she achieved a 80 speed rating also that day – close to her career-best on the sand.

She’s down to a mark of 76 now, and ideally would drop in class, but today looks a weak 0-78 Handicap. With a possible pace advantage, she must go close.

10pts win – Princess Shabnam @ 7/2

Betting

Friday Selections: 1st November 2024

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7.00 Dundalk: Handicap (50-80), 1m

Punk Poet could have found an ideal opportunity to get back to winning ways. He returns to the mile trip, his preferred course and distance, will enjoy a decent draw and showed plenty of encouraging signs three weeks ago at this venue.

That day over 7 furlongs, he had to overcome a wide #12 draw but quickly managed to grab the lead moving up on the outside in the first furlong, just before hitting the bend.

Largely leading uncontested – he also did a lot to keep it that way – Punk Poet travelled best into the home straight, kept going strongly under pressure, before getting tired in the final furlong to finish a gallant 3rd place.

This was a huge run, following on from two decent prior runs, as he starts to take advantage of an easing mark. He’s dangerous off 73 over CD, 5lb lower than his last win twelve months.

He doesn’t look too far off that form, judged by this big performance, that also warranted a decent speed rating and a piece of form that works out well, given the 7th and 9th of that race performed strongly in the meantime.

Punk Poet could be hard to beat today, as he should be able to slot in right behind the likes of No Knee Ever and Rampage, should they elect to want to lead, or he can simply to his own thing from the front. The #5 draw allows for multiple options, and all should suit.

10pts win – Punk Poet @ 9/2

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers 24/25 #1

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Winter is coming… With that in mind I’m starting a fresh list of All-Weather eyecatchers for this new winter season.

All-Weather Eyecatchers is going to be a fortnightly updated list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the sand. Find all previous eyecatchers always here.

……..

Ancient Times
10/10/24 – 8.30 Southwell:

Right up with the fast pace, being just about the quickest through the early part of the race. Fought gamely but eventually fell away in the final furlong in a hot race.

One who caught the eye a number of times in the past. Down to a career-lowest mark, with options to improve on the AW. First run since a small break and could be dangerous in 0-70 class.

Oso Rapido
10/10/24 – 6.00 Southwell:

Overcame the widest draw thanks to a rapid start, charging up wide to grab the lead just before the bend. For a long time in the race, a massive performance in a decent field.

Not as prolific on the sand as on turf, but didn’t have too many chances to show his best over his preferred 6f on AW. Clearly in decent form, ran some fine races this season, and will benefit from a drop in grade.

Dimsons
10/10/24 – 7.15 Chelmsford:

Very keen from the #8 draw, moved forward, pulling hard in the lead. Got badly tired in the closing stages but was in the mix for a while in a strong race. Did better than bare form suggest here on handicap debut.

Seemed to have improved since being gelded. A drop in grade could help, maybe some headgear, given he can be quite free. Still lightly raced, may also enjoy a drop in trip. There should be a bit of improvement in him once the penny drops.

Punk Poet
11/10/24 – 6.30 Dundalk:

Moved quickly forward from a wide draw to grab the lead, uncontested, but also did a lot to keep it that way. Travelled best into the home straight, before getting tired in the final furlong.

Huge run, following on from to decent prior runs, staring to take advantage of an ease in the mark. Dangerous off 73, if the handicapper is kind, next time over 7f or perhaps slightly better over a mile at Dundalk from a better draw.

Won last November off 78 over a mile here, and doesn’t look too far off that form, judged by this big performance, that also warranted a decent speed rating.

Little Empire
11/10/24 – 6.30 Dundalk:

Runner-up in the Punk Poet race – had to overcome the widest draw. Travelled wide through the first furlong, before making rapid progress to settle just behind the leader. Gutsy in the closing staged to grab second eventually.

Could have still a bit more to offer on this surface off this sort of mark given he was largely progressive all season. Had valid excuses (ground and reared in stalls) in his last two runs.

Achieved a career-best speed rating here and hopefully the handicapper won’t react too harshly, then he’s a proper chance over 7f with a better draw.

Tamrat
11/10/24 – 7.00 Dundalk:

Quickest through the first two furlongs in a fast race. Never let the tempo ease too much and was going pretty well from the front, where not much else got involved. Eventually just beaten by a seriously well handicapped winner.

Clearly improved from the application of blinkers, as evident last time already. The drop in trip helped also here. Ran a career-best speed rating, in line with his current rating, that suggests now that the trip has been found he could have a good deal more to offer off this current rating.

Princess Shabnam
12/10/24 – 7.20 Chelmsford:

Set way too hot early fractions and no surprise to see her fade away eventually. Strong run, nonetheless, confirming the excellent form the mare produced over the last weeks and months.

The Kempton 2nd in September is seriously strong form, especially the way she held on for so long, with the winner ridden with a lot more patience, as she achieved a 80 speed rating also.

Strong Johnson
17/10/24 – 6.30 Southwell:

Soon chased the leader having a perfect #2 draw but also did a lot in the first half of the race. Travelled quite well into the home straight and showed excellent attitude in the closing stages to keep going despite multiple challengers to hold on for 3rd place.

Appears quite well handicapped now, achieved a 70 speed rating here, matching his current mark. Showed a handful of decent performances this season without winning, but now a return to the sand should help if the handicapper is kind.

At his best over 5f but stays the additional furlong. Won last November over the minimum trip at Newcastle.

Bell Shot
17/10/24 – 6.45 Chelmsford:

Quickly into the lead, set seriously hot fractions, helped by the eventual winner who pushed it further. Fell apart in the second half but no shame behind the impressive winner.

Ran to some serious ratings this season and should be able to translate this to the sand as well now. Will benefit from a drop in class and eased mark soon. Would also be intriguing if dropped in trip.

Hedge Fund
17/10/24 – 7.45 Chelmsford:

Moved forward from wide draw to grab the lead. Did way too much early on yet travelled very strongly into the home straight, still ahead at the final furlong marker.

Surely ready to win soon, down to a career-lowest mark, especially in a slightly easier race (0-80). Possesses enough pace to win over minimum trip as well.

Pop Dancer
17/10/24 – 8.15 Chelmsford:

Rapidly moved forward to win the race for the lead in the first furlong, doing too much there and then. Ran an honest race to the lead for 3rd eventually.

Slowly drops in the mark, coinciding with two improving performances lately. Not the force of old but in this grade always dangerous from the front when he can dominate.

Guiteau
19/10/24 – 6.00 Wolverhampton:

Off to a decent start from #5 to chase a hot pace. Midway followed the leader closely with small gap to the main field. Headed leader 2f out, but soon beaten. Ran honest race to the line.

Could become intriguing soon with additional help from handicapper and possible drop in class on the cards. Ran 3x 66 speed ratings on turf this year, and ran to a fair 59 speed rating here as well, a career-best on sand.

Salamanca Lad
19/10/24 – 7.00 Wolverhampton:

Brave performance from the front and only ran down deep in the final furlong, with the winner coming from well off the pace.

Two huge runs prior as well. The Sandown form worked out well in the meantime, and he ran a career-best speed rating at Southwell when beaten in the dying strides.

Uncomplicated front-runner, starts well, and could still be a couple of pounds ahead in the right race. Probably doesn’t truly stay 10f, although always a chance if no pace pressure.

Betting

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes 2024 – Preview

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The QEII looks a tasty renewal: Big Rock romped home when let loose on the lead last year. He’s not here to defend his crown – however, a field of 13 go to post where pace, ground and freshness could be the deciding factors.

#1 Charyn: four wins from six races this season, including the Queen Anne. Greatly improved as a 4-year-old and ground versatile. He’s been the star miler this year.

Suspicion is he may be seen to best effect on a better surface, though. His two biggest performances on the clock came in June on a faster surface.

It’s been a long season and he had a tough race at Longchamp a fortnight ago. Still a massive run back then to finish runner-up, eventually, where he had too much to do.

Remains the one do beat, but a short price in this race, given there’s opposition to beat with a good record on soft ground.

#2 Checkandchallenge: Improved for a gelding operation. Ran credible in this race the last two years. Still shouldn’t be good enough.

#3 Facteur Cheval: Runner-up in this twelve months ago. Followed-up with winning the Dubai Turf. Handles soft ground seriously well and comes here fresher than some of his other key rivals.

A return to a softer surface and possible a good pace to lead him into the race could see him improve from his third at Goodwood, when last seen; arguably a strong piece of form, on a much faster surface.

He ran a massive race last year here, waiting too long for his effort, with the winner long gone, but finished much the best. Serious chance today.

#4 Lord Massus: Only a listed winner do date, although placed in a couple of Group 2’s. Unlikely to be good enough to feature.

#5 Poker Face: Likely one of the pace horses. Runner-up on three occasions in Group 2 company this year. Unlikely to enjoy an uncontested lead.

#6 Prague: Lightly raced and supplemented after recent impressive Group 2 victory at Newmarket. Impressive mid-race move and kept going when others faltered.

Followed-up from an unlucky second at Haydock Improving and looks open to tons of progress. Certainly deserves his chance on this level.

He enjoys this type of ground as well and should benefit from a strong pace. A possible negative is the draw: far away on the outside away from the likely pace, unless Lord Massus moves forward as well and he can follow.

#7 Quddwah: Another low-mileage colt. Won the Group 2 Summer Mile here this season and also won over the straight mile last season. Intriguing; however, a career-best 82 speed rating would need him to see improve quite dramatically.

#8 Dancing Gemini: Showed so much promise earlier in his career. Unfortunate not to win the French Guineas. Disappointed ever since, and a long way beaten when last season, despite a significant drop in class.

#9 Henry Longfellow: Largely consistent, having ran to a good standard this season, apart from a disaster run in the French Guineas. Nonetheless, arguably a major disappointment that he wasn’t able to fulfil the promise he showed as a juvenile.

Probably up with the pace, and that could be a positive. But the ground is against him and he may not get home over a mile in soft conditions.

#10 Ice Max: Enjoys soft ground and was a fine winner of the Celebration Mile in August. Throw his race away when last seen and will enjoy the likely good pace. Hard to envision him good enough to win.

#11 Metropolitan: French 2000 Guineas winner. Good the ideal run that day and made most of it, holding on in a tight finish, eventually. Somewhat unfortunate not to finish a bit closer the next two times against top-class opposition, without being disgraced as 2nd and 3rd.

Unlikely he would have beaten Rosallion at Ascot, but he was a clear run denied at a crucial stage and that cost him dearly. Also not ideally placed having to delay his effort, held up behind the pace, last time at Deauville. Finished well, although couldn’t match Charyn’s turn of foot once in the clear.

The ground should make a significant difference to his chances. It’ll stunt the finishing speed of his rivals, while he can quicken well enough on a soft surface. He should be ridden closer to the pace, and is ideally placed to follow Henry Longfellow and Poker Pace.

He’s been drifting in the betting all morning, to my surprise. Not sure why, and that’s a worry, because it doesn’t make sense to me. Conditions should be ideal for him and he comes here relatively fresh.

#12 Sirona: A listed winner on heavy ground when last seen. Shouldn’t stand a chance to feature.

#13 Tamfana: Progressive filly who won her first Group 1 two weeks ago landing the Sun Chariot in excellent style. The ground won’t be a worry and she looks well drawn in and around the likely pace.

She had a long enough season, though, and is a short enough price, given her overall win record isn’t all that impressive.

Summary: a wide open renewal. Charyn sets a high standard but could be vulnerable in these conditions at the end of a long season. He’s a short price

Metropolitan appeals at a huge price, while has Facteur Cheval has the ability to go one better than twelve months ago, with conditions set to be ideal. Prague looks potentially a special colt.

5pts win – Facteur Cheval @ 13/2 SM
5pts win – Prague @ 12.5/1
2.5pts win – Metropolitan @ 17/1 SM

Betting

Saturday Selections: 27th July 2024

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3.40 Ascot: Group 1 – King George, 1m 4f

Auguste Rodin sets a very high standard in the King George – if on a going day. He’s the right favourite, and hard to knock on his 2024 form.

Somewhat of an enigma last year, this season he improved nicely from his seasonal reappearance at the Curragh, to land the Group 1 POW at this venue last month in fine style.

Two performances achieving a 100+ speed rating back-to-back as well – clearly on decent ground Auguste Rodin is a superstar. With the pace and race likely to be run in his favour, with his stablemates, including high-class Luxembourg likely to to move forward, he should be in an ideal position when the fields turns for home.

One could argue 6/4 is a pretty fair price, given nearly everything will be in his favour today. It’s not my type of price, but I think you could back far worse shots at these short prices.

Saying that, there’s some decent opposition to beat, albeit, they all have their work cut out, given none of them enjoys the luxury of two pacemakers helping their cause.

Rebel’s Romance is the closest rival in the betting. I don’t he’s good enough to beat Auguste Rodin, though. His best form comes away from home, and he never achieved a Group 1 speed rating on turf so far.

That’s perhaps controversial to say, given he won two Group 1 races this year already. And those were competitive ones at Meydan and Hong Kong. At 7/2 I see zero value in back him, nonetheless.

The filly Bluestocking looks progressive as she matures. Her Pretty Polly win last month was a superb piece of form. Can she translate this type of performance to fast ground and 12 furlongs? If so, she’d be a serious danger.

Middle Earth, so far in her career, hasn’t shown that she’s Group 1 class. Duabi Honour has, and he could outran a big price for a place. Although, his very best form comes over 10 furlongs.

To call Luxembourg, a most recent Group 1 Coronation Stakes winner, a pace maker is probably harsh. He’ll run on merit, no doubt, and is a fair each-way shout at current prices. I do believe he’s best over 10 furlongs, on the other hand, and may be outstayed for win purposes.

There no question that the only 3-year-old colt in the race, Sunway, is tremendously overpriced. 17/1+ on the exchanges is obviously a bonkers price.

Saying that, to start with a negative: his draw an likely position in the race are massive negatives. He’ll likely be held up and will have plenty to do once the field turns for home. His challenge may come too late.

Nonetheless, at this price I can’t leave him unbacked. There’s too much juice in the these odds, for various reasons.

For one: His 108 speed rating achieved in the Irish Derby is the best on offer in this field this season. I believe the Curragh Classic was a strong renewal, and the form will stand the test of time.

Further to that, he achieved that brilliant runner-up performance in less than ideal circumstances. Coming from off the pace, he had a lot to do, didn’t get the best run through, and still finished the fastest over the last three furlongs, thanks to a rapid final furlong.

That run demonstrates his class but also his possibly vulnerability, certainly over this trip, given the way he’s ridden over 12 furlongs. From his #7 draw today most likely he’ll be ridden in similar fashion.

The hope is that they go hard up front and that James Doyle can make progress from halfway out to swing around the bend for a clear run not further back than midfield to unleash a turn of foot, that seems present, especially on better ground, to give Sunway a fair chance to win.

10pts win – Sunway @ 17/1

…….

7.15 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

This looks a superb chance for Sir Oliver to score as he drops down in class again, having lost another 2lb of his mark and gets the added bonus of solid 3lb claiming Christian Howarth in the saddle.

Sir Oliver has ran well enough lately, having finished a gallant 3rd over this course and distance in June, when not ideally placed, in a hot 0-75 Handicap off 3lb higher than today.

He was too keen the next two times back over 7 furlongs, although, also harshly judged in better class, especially most recently at Ascot in a strong class 4 contest.

Down to class 5, where he enjoys a 9-3-4 record and 3-1-2 ground over 6 furlongs on on decent to fast ground, he looks well handicapped in this race today. Albeit competitive in nature, and the #1 draw not quite ideal, the pace scenario shapes well enough for him to cross over quickly to the far rail.

So with fast ground, trip and track to suit, in an easier race, and having shown form lately, Sir Oliver could be hard to beat today.

10pts win – Sir Oliver @ 5/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 10th July 2024

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4.55 Catterick: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

I’ve backed Kindest Nation before and am prepared to give her a final chance, today in a pretty poor race, with ground, trip and pace scenario likely to suit this filly.

I think she’s better than her official 70 rating in these conditions. I don’t think she appreciates any firm in the going, and that was the case the last two times.

As poor as the most recent Newmarket run looked, ground aside, from the #1 draw she was pretty early beaten, racing somewhat isolated toward the far rail early on, and first and second racing on the other side.

She ran much better the three times prior: first at Haydock, travelling well for quite a long time, but stuck behind the leaders for a run, before fading over the mile.

Her Sandown front-running performance in a hot Class 4 Handicap suggested she’s capable of winning in a slightly easier race off her then mark, so did that excellent runner-up performance at Beverley, where she followed-up on an eyecatching Southwell victory.

Kindest Nation remains lightly raced, this is only her 7th career start, fourth time in a Handicap, and probably only the second time over the ideal trip and ground.

Headgear on should help her to stay sharp and be fast out of the gate to get to an advantageous prominent racing position, given this course and distance but also the possible pace scenario. A solid 3lb claimer on board seems the “cherry on the cake”.

10pts win – Kindest Nation @ 15/2

……

7.10 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

If Covert Mission can regain some form second up off a small break he’ll be possibly hard to beat off a seriously dangerous mark over an ideal course and distance with a favourable pace scenario.

Granted, his last two runs have been poor showings. However, he missed the break at Bath and was stuck behind horses in the home straight, while he did way too much too soon from his #7 draw at Lingfield last time out.

Both races were deep and worked out well in the meantime. I feel those runs weren’t quite as bad as the bare form suggests. Especially as he dropped to a mark of 61 now, 4lb below his last winning mark overall, and 9lb below his last winning mark on sand.

The pace scenario looks probably favourable for him, especially from a low draw with not too many other aggressive possible leaders in the race.

Cheek-pieces are back on – he raced once with them a few years ago and finished a strong runner-up. So that’s another positive in my book.

This is a weak 0-65 Handicap for this time of the year on the All-Weather and Covert Mission looks seriously overpriced with the various bigger odds up for grabs on the exchanges.

10pts win – Covert Mission @ 10/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 7th July 2024

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It was good to back a winner yesterday. In fact it was a nice & comfortable win for God Of Fire at Beverley. He was on the pace, in the right position throughout, and simply didn’t stop.

The same fortune didn’t apply to my Durban July selection Future Swing. He clearly wasn’t ready when the gates opened, not standing straight, leaning awkward to the side in the stall and it was a shame the starter let it go. He had no chance.

Whether he would have been good enough on the day with a fair start will be an unknown forever. Credit where it’s due, though: it was a sensational ride by J P v’d Merwe on the winner Oriental Charm, in any case.

Double figure draw? No bother. Once in front, he rode them to sleep, set a perfect tempo for his mount, who wasn’t certain to stay the July trip. But he has speed and travelles and just kicked on hitting the home straight with plenty in hand, and rivals from behind had too much to do as Oriental Charm was able to sustain his effort all the way.

……….

2.45 Hamburg: Group 1 – German Derby, 1m 4f

An open enough contest that may evolve around the way the pace develops with some of the better fancied runners having to overcome double-figure draws.

Likely front-runner Geminiano is a non-runner now, hence this may not turn out into all-out stamina test. It should prove vital to have a good early position, not too far off the pace, which means the likes of Narrativo and Wintertraum, currently the top two in the betting, have to be used up a little more than ideal, possibly, from their 10 and 11 gates early on.

Narrativo heads the market at the time of writing. A superb winner of Union-Rennen, a traditional leading Derby trial, he produced a lovely change of gear from off the pace.

He was a solid 3rd in the strong renewal of the Prix Hocquart behind Calandagan, so that’s proper form and a colt nicely improving with each run.

Wintertraum gets the assistance of Oisin Murphy and was an equally highly impress winner of a Derby Trial at Düsseldorf. He didn’t get a clear run until 300m out and sprinted away in superb style.

I don’t like the double-figure draws both leading betting chances have, and think they’re no more than fair prices, although, they are obvious chances to run well.

I’m quite interested in Wintertraum’s stable mate Augustus, though. He’s a tough sort, improving, and looks a stayer in the making who’ll appreciate the softish ground and the new trip.

He impressed when winning the Derby Trial at Baden-Baden last month as he was doing much the best of those up or chasing the hot pace. He came under pressure, seemingly outpaced over three furlongs from home, also looking still a bit green in the closing stages, but showed tremendous attitude to outstay smart Wilko.

Augustus should be ridden positive from the #1 gate and has the pedigree to improve for the step up to the Derby distance. He’s progressing nicely, as he followed on from a solid seasonal reappearance at Munich with the strong Trial win.

The second horse I’m giving a huge chance, who’s going to be my main bet, is already a Derby winner: Borna. He won the Derby Italiano in brilliant style back in May.

He overcame a wide draw and travelled wider than ideal for the majority of the race, nonetheless he made nice progress on the outside and travelled strongly on the bridle hitting the home straight. Two furlongs out he was all alone up there, and seemed to get a bit lonely, wandering and looking around. Ultimately he won with authority.

That looks strong form. The second, Royal Supremacy finished a fine 3rd at Royal Ascot in the King Edward subsequently. Borna looks a progressive sort, who should only get better with age and experience.

He was beaten by Wintertraum last season, though that was over a mile. He’ll have to prove that he can stretch out over the Derby trip, an additional furlong compared to Capannelle, but then the dam was placed over 1m 7f, so there’s a decent chance.

I like the fact from the #4 gate he’ll get it easy early on to find a decent position not too far off the pace, and given he’s a strong traveller he should be suited by the Hamburg track.

6 pts win – Borna @ 13/2
4pts win – Augustus @ 11/1