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Saturday NAP

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Dundalk All-Weather

2.00 Southwell: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Shootingsta is the solid form choice and deserved favourite. Good second over course and distance lto, though current mark doesn’t leave much room for error.

The main dangers might be: The filly Assault On Rome, who has won at Wolverhampton over 7f when last seen, only 3lb up and still likely to be on a fair mark judged on past form. Southwell debut but may be alright if preference for soft going on turf is any indicator. Stays further.

Captain Revelation drops to a handy mark, 1lb below last win. Front-runner who has been placed at Southwell in the past. Visor off and back from break.

Golden Highway has been poor since getting off the mark on debut at Chelmsford last year. However drops markedly in trip and mark and might be well suited by this test with pedigree suggesting he’ll act here however has been off for half a year.

Verdict: I feel Assault On Rome is a huge price given her good recent form and the fact she has a good draw and stays further. She should be up with the pace, which I expect to be lethal, and in a slug to the line she might be able to grind it out, given she acts on the fibresand.

Assault On Rome @ 10/1 Coral – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Monday Betting: All-Weather

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Laytown2

2.30 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Nursery, 1m 141y

Favourite Ripoll could still be on the up, but at a much bigger price Monday Club is an intriguing contender as he finished only one place behind Ripoll when the two met the last time here at Wolverhampton – form that looks very strong and is franked through Ripoll, who was subsequently a runaway winner at Kempton.

Monday Club had the widest draw to overcome in that race, travelled well but was briefly off the bridle over 4f when trying to close the gap to the leading pack, which seemingly slipped away. He came back on the bridle, travelling strongly into the home straight, though seemed to hang a bit to his left then and wasn’t helped by shifting horses who prevented him from a clear run.

He probably was a tired horse at that stage anyway, so the slight drop in trip should suit perfectly. He gets 2lb off his mark and has a decent 3lb claimer on board today. From a handicapping perspective he must have strong claims in my mind.

Working against him will the unkind draw – again widest of all. He will have to get all the brakes and need to be well in to overcome in a race like this, but at a huge price is certainly worth the gamble.

Monday Club @ 25/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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5.20 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

I firmly have my eyes on Loyalty who seems underestimated here. His last run in much better class 4lb out of the handicap at Chelmsford wasn’t a bad one, but I thought he was most eye-catching over course and distance on his return when he made all from a wide draw and just tired in the final furlong, probably in the need of a run.

He’s got a decent draw and is on a fair mark at the moment, although the trip could be on the sharp side. However he has won over 7f in the past and loves Kempton. Given he’ll make this a stamina test from the front again he could be primed for a big run today.

Loyalty @ 18/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

Ireland, Uncategorized

Fairyhouse Betting: Grade 1 Action

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Royal Bond Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)

Willie Mullins holds the keys in his hands to the outcome of this race. Exciting Long Dog might be hard to beat but stable mate Bachasson can’t be underestimated.

The French import is unbeaten in four starts in Ireland and landed a good Grade 3 Hurdle in excellent style when last seen. He’s also receiving some weight from Long Dog.

Bachasson @ 7/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Hatton’s Grace Hurdle (Grade 1)

If Arctic Fire runs to his best he’ll be probably running away with this. However he’s fallen short to prevail on the highest level up until now and is one I’m prepared to take on.

Receiving 4lb from all his rivals, French gelding Gwencily Berbas is an interesting alternative. He probably would like it a bit softer but has won on yielding ground here at Fairyhouse over 2m on Grade 3 level earlier this month.

Still lightly raced, he is unexposed over the 2 1/2m trip, which on pedigree should very much suit.

Gwencily Berbas @ 10/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Uncategorized, United Kingdom

Preview: Hennessy Gold Cup

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3.00 Newbury: Hennessy Gold Cup (Grade 3 Handicap)

It’s great to see Bobs Worth back as a contender for a big race. His prep over hurdles when beating Simonsing was encouraging but I find it hard to trust him to back it up stepping up to 3m plus in a much tougher race.

Ante-post favourite Saphir Du Rheu has top credentials. His trainer knows what it takes to win the race. The six year old could still be on the up and looked striving on his seasonal debut. That says 11-12 is a tough ask and it needs a special performance.

I struggle to see why Smad Place is as short as he is, as in my mind he will struggle in a deep race like this off a big weight. If In Doubt has still not too many miles on the clock for a seven year; he could bounce back given he’s on a handy mark.

Ned Stark and The Young Master will enjoy this test of stamina in soft conditions. Both have fair credentials and could still have a bit more to offer.

Seemingly not too much love from the punters gets last years Hennessy runner-up Houblon Des Obeaux. True, his seasonal return late in October wasn’t all too encouraging, but also not completely off putting, given another crack at the Hennessy was always the target.

He was a fine second behind subsequent Grand National winner Many Clouds but is one pound lower rated today. If in the same sort of form he must have a big chance given he backed this run up with two other strong performances subsequently.

Houblon Des Obeaux @ 14/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Chelmsford: Jassur deserves another chance

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Gordon Lord Byron

6.10 Chelmsford: Class 6 Nursery, 1m 2f

Competitive affair and more open than the market suggests in my mind. The favourite has a big shout of an unchanged mark after an excellent performance lto but looks a skinny price nonetheless.

Goldenfield and Jassur both ran eye-catchingly in the same race last month, which looks strong form in my mind.

Goldenfield fared better, tracking the pace and just came up short. A 2lb hike in the mark is fair and he may improve again.

Jassur is more interesting though, given his big price tag. He set a suicidal pace the last time but was still there in the home straight; it was no surprise to see him fade badly eventually. The merit of the performance looks better than the bare result suggests

He won at Chelmsford over 10f before by a street and could easily have more to offer off his current mark, particularly with a different ride.

Jassur @ 10/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Betting

Southwell: Schottische has a big shout

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Winner and a third today – we clearly make some progress here. Even though I would have much preferred Dynamo Walt to win than Natural Nine – but hey, I don’t wanna complain.

12.10 Southwell: Class 6 Amateur Handicap, 1m

Two horses caught my eye on the Southwell sand recently. One is Roger Thorpe who was unlucky to bump into a seriously well handicapped horse the other day. He has a big shout today, though the jockey and the draw are slight concerns.

For a much bigger price I feel Schottische is interesting. She was quite unlucky two starts back here at Southwell when she travelled strongly but got badly hampered approaching the home turn when coming with a huge run, only to get checked moments later yet again.

It was impressive how she stuck to the task and finished as close as did. I didn’t pay attention when she popped up at Lingfield subsequently. 10f is too far form her. Back at Southwell now she’s really interesting, back over 1m and 2lb below her last winning mark which came over course and distance earlier this year.

Schottische @ 16/1 bet365 – 5pts Win

Betting Talk

Eye-Catchers: Kempton on Monday

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3.35 Chelmsford: Class 2 Handicap, 5f

Seven year old Dynamo Walt is probably high enough in the mark here but ran with plenty of credit the last two starts, following on from his half a lengths success over course and distance.

The draw hasn’t been kind those last two times, it is much more in his favour here. It was eye-catching how he overcame the widest draw at Kempton lto, burning allot of energy in the first two furlongs to get across and take the lead.

He tired eventually in the final furlong, but the merit of this performance is better than the bare result. The form starts to work out well too in the meantime.

Dynamo Walt @ 18/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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4.05 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Lightly raced three year old Natural Nine drops down to 7f and has a big chance to follow-up on two strong recent performances. He found the mile trip too far two starts back here at Chelmsford, coming off a break after winning a Beverly maiden in June.

He really caught my eye the last time at Kempton, though. Changed tactics saw him held up; he travelled very strongly and made excellent progress in the home straight, though got hampered at a crucial stage around the final furlong marker by a shifting horse.

He didn’t quite seem to see out the trip anyway, so it’s questionable how much that really cost him. But he came a long way clear of the rest of the field and was only 3 lengths behind smart, well handicapped & subsequent scorer Afjaan.

With conditions sure to suit, I feel Natural Nine could have still a bit more to offer from his current mark off 79.

Natural Nine @ 4/1 Coral – 5pts Winner

United Kingdom

Wolverhampton: Clockmaker Can go Close

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Laytown 3

20.15 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Despite his age, nine year old veteran Clockmaker makes plenty of appeal in this race from his good draw. He is certainly down a good mark, given he’s a couple of pounds below rated below his last (turf) winning mark and has won off his current rating on the All-Weather before.

His most recent performance here at Wolverhampton over the 7f trip in a better race was most eye-catching given that he ran off like a lunatic, leading the field by several lengths, even when approaching the home straight. It wasn’t a surprise to see him tire soon after, yet he led the field into the final furlong and finished a good 4th in the end.

With a slightly better judged race he can go very close given the handicapper left his mark unchanged.

Clockmaker @ 14/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Kempton: Menelik a prime chance with Coackley booked

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Dundalk All-Weather

7.10 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

My attention is drawn to three horses here in this low grade Handicap. Favourite Bridge Of Sighs won a poor class 7 race the last time, however on his first try over 1m. His lightly raced profile, modest rise in the mark and 3lb claimer on board gives him a decent chance to follow-up.

Two form horses but at the same time with eye-catching runs the last time are Thermal Column and Menelik. The former on is clearly very consistent since changing yards.

Three starts in the last weeks resulted in a placed effort, a hard fought win and an eye-catching runner-up effort most recently. Off an unchanged mark he is a serious contender, although a poor draw makes life difficult.

Menelik is down to a very handy mark at the moment and has been placed the last two of his current rating off 60. He caught the eye the last time at Wolverhampton when he overcame a wide draw and engaged in a fierce fight for the lead early on.

He made allot in those first two furlongs of the race but eventually settled in fourth, tracking a mad pace. He travelled strongly around the home turn approaching the straight leading the pack but was soon headed by the eventual winner and worn down by him as well as the runner-up in the final furlong.

He still came clear a long way of the rest and wasn’t beaten fast. Given that first and second came from way off the pace while he committed allot this rates as a very strong performance.

The slight drop back to 1m will help here, so will the kind draw. Most interestingly is the jockey booking. A good Irish 5lb claimer is over to ride this one race at Chelmsford. His allowance gives Menelik a prime chance in this field.

Menelik @ 8/1 Bet465 – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Cheltenham Preview: Greatwood Hurdle

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2.40 Cheltenham: Greatwood Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap), 2m

Despite the big field and natural competitiveness of the Greatwood, two horses stand out for me: Bouvreuil and Totalize. The former one is only a four year old and surely will have a future as a chaser but should profit from another season over timber, now more experienced and stronger, the Nicholls inmate looks an exciting prospect.

He finished an excellent runner-up in the Fred Winter at the Festival last season which is very strong form in its own right. Back from a break the Greatwood was his early season target, so he should be ready to go today on ground which he’s sure to love. Big field, good pace, soft ground – perfect conditions. Of a mark off 139 looks one with plenty of scope.

Totalize is a different sort. He hasn’t been seen over hurdles for quite a while, instead had not a bad season on the flat. However reportedly he has a schooling run over hurdles in the meantime and seemingly looked good. So does his hurdle form in general.

Back in January 2014 he finished a creditable runner-up here at Cheltenham in a Handicap Hurdle behind classy Lac Fontana. If he could run to that sort of level he’d be right in the mix today off only a 3lb higher mark. Given he may well have improved since then as well as that this is only his eight start over timber, he has some scope as well.

Bouvreuil @ 16/1 William Hill – 5pts Win
Totalize @ 11/1 Racebets – 5pts Win

Horse Racing Around The Globe