Touted as “the best ever”, the Pacific Classic didn’t turn into the thrilling three-way-battle everyone was hoping for. A let-down?
Nope. Certainly not! Well, at least not if you love to see great horses doing great things!
It wasn’t the supposed thriller because California Chrome demolished his classy rivals – brilliant mare Beholder and gutsy Dortmund – in quite sensational style. In fact Chrome fans were able to count their chickens early – the race was basically done and dusted already after the first couple of furlongs.
Why? Because the one big thing that could spell trouble for the reigning Dubai World Cup champion was pushed out of the way with ease. Drawn in barrier one can be tricky. But it doesn’t have to be.
From the inside gate, jockey Espinoza pressed on right from the moment the gates crashed open. Without much hassle he manoeuvred Chrome into the lead and let thimp settle into a nice rhythm.
And that was that. Case closed. No rival wanted to take him on for the lead; Chrome was allowed to dawdle along in front to set fractions that would suit him perfectly. Then from four furlongs out Espinoza started to go through the gears.
He was winding it up without any signs of trouble whatsoever. After an easy lead for the entire race, Chrome had still plenty in the tank and finished strongly despite being hand held, whereas his main rivals faded away.
What was thought to be a highly competitive race turned into a procession by a tactically smart rider and a classy equine superstar – which California Chrome undoubtedly is.
I’m not surprised and speculated beforehand that the draw would not be as big a deal as some made out of it. I also said California Chrome should be considered an odds-on chance in this field, despite all the hype around the depth of the field in “best ever Pacific Classic”.
Yes, it would have been interesting to see if either Dortmund or Beholder would have at least tried to make a race of it, if one would have pressed Chrome for the lead or would have made at least a big move at some point to apply some heat.
But then the five year old is simply in a different league to Beholder and Dortmund. He’s a battle hardened horse but more importantly a multiple Grade 1 winner on different surfaces at different continents. Breeders Cup Classic next?
What a race in prospect tonight: the clash of California Chrome vs. Beholder vs. Dortmund in the Pacific Classic! Should be an absolute cracker.
The mare Beholder tries to defend her crown, after romping home to an 8 lengths plus success in this race last year. It looks a tougher assignment this time, given main rivals Dortmund and California Chrome are sure to be primed.
Both locked horns in the San Diego Handicap most recently where they reappeared after a break. Despite giving weight away, California Chrome came out on top after a tough battle in the home straight.
Quite honestly it’s hard to see Dortmund turning the table today. I’m a big fan of this lad, he just such good looking boy! But he is not quite the class of Dubai World Cup winner California Chrome and is not necessarily appreciating the step up in trip.
No bother for Chrome, though. He has the stamina and class, however will have to overcome a tough draw on the inside – Espinoza has to make a tough call early on.
I believe he’ll keep it simple and will use Chrome’s early speed to make sure he’s not boxed in. And that will be that.
Beholder has tried this trip once before – when she turned last year’s Pacific Classic into a procession. However it was an odd race, with the leaders taking each other on and Bayern not performing on the day.
My feeling is that against tougher opposition, over this trip against a world class animal like California Chrome, who’s sure to stay every inch of the distance, she’s likely to fall short – despite a handy 5lb weight allowance.
Chrome is the class act and clearly the one to beat. He usually improves quite a bit from his first run after a break, so should be ready for a big performance today. In my book he is odds-on.
22 – If you would have backed every son and daughter of the great Fastnet Rock over the 12 furlong trip at Wolverhampton with one euro each this year, you’d have made a healthy profit of €22! That equates for an impressive 71% strike rate.
It’s not an overly massive sample size, nonetheless potentially significant, given 86% of his runners placed too.
Fastnet Rock offspring generally tends to perform extremely well on Wolverhampton’s tapeta surface, though the 1m 2f success rate is clearly eye-popping. So watch out for his runners.
I don’t really feel in the mood to lose too many words about the Juddmonte International after making a fool of myself yesterday, doubting Postponed. Well, hindsight is funny thing, isn’t it?
Nonetheless, credit where credit is due: Postponed is a superstar! I think that is fair to say now, after finally winning a Group 1 over 10 furlongs – and not just a Micky Mouse one – this was quite a decent field.
Andrea Atzeni gave him an excellent ride – for years now Atzeni is one of those no nonsense jockeys, doing more often than not the simple but right things.
He tracked the leaders for most of the time and then pressed the button on Postponed over 3 furlongs – probably slightly earlier than it would be ideal – but it was the right move at the right time. Once hitting top gear, Postponed is always sure to march strongly toward the line.
The form looks legit, given 121 rated Highland Reel ran a stormer, finishing a 1¼ lengths beaten runner-up, with 118 rated Mutakayyek a further lengths behind in third.
On the other hand Wings Of Desire was a total no-show whereas Hawkbill seemingly didn’t act on the fast ground.
It shouldn’t feel easy to oppose a horse with an ultra impressive record reading something like 11-111 for the last five starts. Even more when those wins came in either Group 1 or 2 company. It shouldn’t be easy…..
But it is! Postponed, red hot favourite to land the Juddmonte International today, developed into a serious world-class horse, no doubt. He’s going to be a prime contender to win an Arc this year,should connections opt to go down this route.
That’s the future – but what about today? Well, I’m leaning wide out of the window – potentially making a fool of myself – nonetheless I have to say Postponed should not be clear cut favourite today. He really shouldn’t!
See it this way: except for a maiden success, Postponed has actually never won below 11 furlongs – in fact all his wins on Group level came over one mile and half a furlong!
He’s not a slow horse. And yes, given his impressive performances lately, it appears that he could well have enough pace to be competitive over 1m 2f – yet he simply hasn’t shown it in the past – or at least it was never good enough to get his head in front.
Now, he looked super impressive in the Coronation Cup at Epsom. Naturally that form should give him a major chance. One the other hand I feel the drop down to 10 furlongs at flat York on fast ground is an entirely different test. He’s meeting some speedier sorts and I suspect he’s get rolling way too late.
So if not Postponed, who then? Well, Globetrotter Highland Reel must play a big role. He is not a flashy superstar by all means, but developed into a consistent top level performer.
He’s excelled over 12 furlongs lately, though I believe he has enough pace to ensure a drop in trip is no big deal. Let’s not forget Highland Reel won the Goodwood Vintage Stakes over seven furlongs as a juvenile, where he produced a stunning turn of foot.
However the most likely winner of the race is Godolphin’s Hawkbill. His Coral Eclipse success, subsequently franked by The Gurkha in the Sussex Stakes, is the strongest piece of form on offer in this field over the 10 furlongs trip.
As a three year old with weight for age advantage he must have a tremendous chance – as long as he acts on fast ground. As a son of Kitten’s Joy you would think he’s got no issues with that.
However looking closer, Kitten’s Joy offspring actually has not been all that successful on fast ground in the UK over the years. Only 9.6% of his daughters and sons won races and even less of those won on fast ground over 10 furlongs.
John Gosden’s Wings of Desire gets another chance today to prove he is a proper Group 1 horse. The Dante Stakes winner and Derby fourth was far from disgraced in second place behind Highland Reel at Royal Ascot but seemed not to get home over 12 furlongs – so dropping him back in trip is a positive.
I feel this is his best chance to win a Group 1 to date. In fact today he really has to show what he’s made of. No excuses. He has to improve a bit, of course, but with conditions very likely to suit, he has every chance to find the bit of improvement needed to challenge hard.
Interesting side note: Wings Of Desire is a son of Pivotal, whose offspring performs incredibly well over this trip and ground at York – a small sample size it is, but a 60% win- and 100% place strike rate in pattern races seems significant.
Anyone else with a chance? Well, you can’t rule out Mutakayyef. He won two on the bounce and tries to bring this form to the highest level now. Dariyan has been disappointing lately, but on his best, could finish in the money.
That says at the prices, I think Wings of Desire is the most compelling bet in the race. I really do expect him to run a huge race.
Selection: Wings Of Desire @ 12/1 Ladbrokes
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Best of the Rest:
2.20 Chepstow: Island In The Sky @ 7/4 Skybet
2.30 York: Courage Under Fire @ 7/1 Bet365
2.45 Carlisle: Senator @ 5/6 Skybet
2.55 Chepstow: Hidden Stash @ 11/4 Bet365
3.30 Chepstow: Curriculum @ 11/8 Coral
4.55 York: Kamra @ 16/1 Bet365
7.40 Kempton: Certified @ 9/1 Bet365
8.40 Kempton: Saborido @ 14/1 Bet365
SLOW burning day, but no surprise given the Ebor Festival is looming large. Not much caught my eye today with the exception of the story that Jamie Spencer lost the ride on The Grey Gatsby in the Juddmonte International.
“The horse needs a fresh pair of hands” says trainer Kevin Ryan. So Danny Tudhope gets the nod. Tudhope is a bit the man of the hour after his sensational ride in the Arlington Million last Saturday.
Question is: does this jockey change make actually any difference in the big race tomorrow? Probably not. Jamie Spencer, regarded as villain number one of every armchair jockey, has done little wrong when riding The Grey Gatsby.
But you know how it is: changing things for the sake of it can sometimes make you feel better, though how often does it lead to something good? Well, just think about how often football teams change their manager and how often this leads to sustained success…..
Stat of the Day:
35 – James Tate’s win percentage in Handicaps at Wolverhampton in the summer! Delivers an ROI of 94%, and he’s been even better over the last two summers posing an ultra impressive 62.5% place strike rate at this venue!
Interestingly his success rate drops significantly for the rest of the year, so it seems Tate exploits those often less competitive races on the Wolverhampton All-Weather, knowing how to target particularly the low grade handicaps.
His top contender today is filly Mayasa – her chances are boosted by her pedigree, given Iffraaj offspring acts extremely well at the Wolverhampon tapeta.
Always a great feeling to get it right, particularly if it yields in a 12/1 winner. I spotted yesterday that Dandy Man juveniles perform exceptionally well in maidens at Pontefract – albeit a small sample size, a 100% place record seemed significant enough.
Sky Gypsy enhanced the record to three winners from six starters (6/6 placed) and while this could be all just pure chance and luck, I feel there is more to it, given Pontefract is quite a special track.
Overall ten from 18 runners have been placed for Dandy Man at Pontefract, which is a good indicator that this is a legit trend – but his offspring generally tends to do best in their juvenile season.
So there is no surprise to see his two year old’s fare so well in maidens here at Ponti. Certainly a trend to monitor.
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Protectionist an Arc Contender?
I’d say so! The 2014 Melbourne Cup winner never seemed happy at ‘Down Under’ after landing the big race, so it was a wise decision from connections to send him back home to Germany.
Here he’s finally back to his best, as seen at Berlin Hoppegarten on Sunday where he won the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Berlin in emphatic style!
Protectionist obviously possesses an abundance of stamina, though he is not only a world class stayer, but equally a top class middle distance horse in my view.
In fact he looks perfectly suited to a test like the Arc in October. He thrives in big fields, he doesn’t mind cut in the ground and he has a bit of a turn of foot.
Protectionist is now three from three this season and if he comes through his next test, which will be the Grosser Preis von Baden, then he’s definitly Arc bound in a bid to emulate the last German winner of the big race: Danedream.
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Monday Selections:
2.45 Thirsk: Humbert @ 9/2 Skybet
4.15 Thirsk: New Signal @ 6/1 Coral
Mondialiste won the Arlington Millionen – what a job by David O’Meara yet again, giving this horse every chance to score at the highest level. This trainer knows how to get the most out of his stock!
Mondialiste would certainly not be able to win a Group 1 in the UK or Ireland, but against slightly lesser opposition, he took full advantage of conditions to suit him down to the grounds at Chicago last night.
Sure, the lasix treatment helps – let’s not be fooled, it’s not only the good hay and sunny air in North America that sees this horse improve so dramatically.
On his three visits to the US, Mondialiste now won two major Grade 1’s and was a fast finishing runner-up behind Tepin in another one.
That could be surprising, but given lasix as race day medication is clearly performance enhancing, with quite often dramatically positive effects on European trained horses, it’s actually not a surprise.
But take nothing away from trainer and horse – the rules are there for everyone and David O’Meara plays within them. So well done!
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2.55 Deauville: Prix Jacques Le Marois (Group 1)
What a race in prospect! Several classy milers go to post at Deauville this afternoon and that makes it hard to pick a winner.
2000 Guineas hero Galileo Gold is the 7/4 favourite and has the form in the book to have a big say once again, though the has been on the go for a while now and this might be one race too many.
He meets Godolphin’s Ribchester again, who was a strong finishing third, only a shoulder behind Galileo Gold, in the Sussex Stakes last month. Ribchester is rapidly improving and a first top level success looms large.
Last years winner Esoterique has had a quiet year so far, though a recent fourth in the Prix Rothschild promises an upward form curve.
Vadamos already scored twice in Group company this year and rates a big danger – whether he is quite up to Group 1 standard remains to be seen. However he beat Ervedeya on her seasonal debut back in May.
These two go head to head here today – Vadamos with better recent form. Ervedeya, a three times Group 1 winner, seemed to need the run on reappearance but was a surprising no-show in the Queen Anne Stakes. She has to be back to her best to feature today.
That says I keep faith with her. She’s a brilliant filly on her day and if she can improve from those last two runs she must have a proper chances of beating the boys here.
Selection: Ervedeya @ 8/1 Ladbrokes
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2.15 Pontefract: Sky Gypsy @ 12/1 Coral: Sire Dandy Man with 100 place strike race with two years olds as this odd track, from a limited sample size, yet seemingly significant enough to have a punt.
Big night Chicago – it’s Arlington Million Day! Three Grade 1 races on the turf, plus the US St. Leger – not a bad card of flat action in my book. So let’s have a look inside – here’re some thoughts and selections:
American St. Leger (G3)
One of the locals is heading the betting market – Da Big Hoss. Given the strong record Europeans have in the race this might be a slight surprise, however this year’s challenge from overseas is not as strong as in years before.
That says there is a good reason to believe a local horse can land this unusual test – by US standards – of stamina.
Da Big Hoss has already proven his stamina landing the Belmont Gold Cup in impressive style, he’s also a multiple Stakes winner. He sets a high standard. On the other hand he gives crucial weight away, at a short price is probably worth to oppose.
The main European challenge is likely to come from Clondaw Warrior and Wasir – both very decent stayers. Though there are some question marks whether they have the required speed today.
Might sound counter intuitive in a race called St. Leger, but makes perfect sense as we shouldn’t forget the fast ground horses encounter at Arlington’s turf and the sharpness of of the track, including a short run-in.
The two I find most intriguing in the line-up are Billabong nd Montclair. The latter one formerly trained in France, has staying form good enough to feature, however the ground might be against him.
Billabong has won over this sort of trip, albeit on the All-Weather, but has also proven himself to be competitive over shorter in Group company. He should be fine on the fast ground and gets the benefit of first time lasix.
At 10/1 he looks too big in the betting, given the rather open nature of the race, in my mind.
Selection: Billabong @ 10/1 Ladbrokes
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Secretariat Stakes (G1)
The first big one of the night and looking through the most recent history of the race it would be unwise not to have proper look at whatever Aiden O’Brien saddles.
It’s probably fair to say, though, this years entry Long Island Sound is not as strong as the likes of Highland Reel or Treasure Beach were in years before.
Interesting to see William Buick booked on a decent US horse in American Patriot. Hugely improved since fitted with blinkers, he has to carry a penalty after a recent Grade 3 success nonetheless and that makes life difficult.
Beach Patrol looks the most likely winner after an excellent third in the Belmont Derby. However he’s a short enough price, so my advice is: watch and enjoy the race, safe the money and buy cans of beer instead of burning it here.
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Beverly D. Stakes (Grade 1)
It’s the big one for the females. A wide open race in my view, though I clearly see why Sea Calisi is a hot favourite. I was very fond of her last year when she still raced in Europe and was placed in the Prix Vermeille and Yorkshire Oaks – naturally that type of form gives her a standout chance.
She also had a good start to her US career, with a win and runner-up effort in Grade 2 competition. Worry for me today is her late running style and the trip. It’s a bit on the sharp side for her and she might get rolling too late.
Team Ballydoyle has the filly with the same name in the race. The 1.000 Guineas runner-up disappointed in the Belmont Oaks, which was her second poor showing on the bounce actually. .
Stable mate Coolmore is more interesting. I love the looks of this filly and rate her third place in the Belmont Oaks highly. From the widest draw, she missed the kick yet marched forward to share the lead soon and still managed to finish in the placings.
That was a big performance, although she ran out of steam in the closing stages – says she had every right to do so.
I always felt she’d be best suited over a stiff mile, but she deserves another chance over this sort of trip today, particularly with fast ground a help.
Selection: Coolmore @ 7/1 WH
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Arlington Million (G1)
The main event of the night and you know what? It’s a straightforward race. Focus on the Europeans and you can’t go wrong!
Right, there’s 2015 Million winner The Pizza Man in the line-up, but he clearly is not in the same form as last year. Grade 1 turf winners Wake Forrest and World Approval are the main hope for the locals – both have good form in the book but would hardly be Group 1 material in Europe.
So here come the Europeans, all pumped to the eyeballs with lasix! Mondialiste proved he’s a different horse in the US. On his two starts – what coincidence both times on lasix – he outperformed his European form.
Tryster, first time on lasix today, should show improvement big time I suspect, though not only for the medication, but also for the likely fast pace in combination with the quick ground. He’ll be flying towards the end.
And there’s three year old Belmont Derby winner Deauville. A good horse, but not a world beater. However trip, track and ground is something he’ll love, and I can see him following up on his impressive Belmont success.
Deauville has to overcome a wide draw yet again, but he proved the other day the doesn’t lack early pace. Also he’s a big three year old, who’ll make most of the weight allowance today.
Whereas I’m not sure whether Mondialiste will enjoy the conditions, whereas Tryster might get going too late, Deauville should be in the right spot when it really matters.
CONGRATULATIONS! Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta – two of racing’s most spectacular equine superstars of the past – have been inducted into racing’s hall of fame (to be precise: the ‘National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame in Saratoga’).
These two female racehorses, both at the peak of their craft in the one memorable year of 2009, never actually met at the race track, yet their stories are so closely intertwined as both captured the imagination of racing fans across the globe at the very same time.
Unfortunately the eagerly anticipated duel of the two greats never materialised – never at a race track at least. Now, there’s a saying, though, you’re either in one or the other camp; a Rachel fanboy/girl or a Zenyatta fanboy/girl… it’s the ever ongoing discussion, the human battle of arguments for and against: who’s been the better one?
You can’t have not an opinion. To say “ah well both are great horses” doesn’t cut it. So here’s my view on it.
The short answer is: there can’t be a doubt Rachel Alexandra was the better horse!
The long answer is: it’s not so easy. Zenyatta won plenty of races, won in awesome style and landed the Breeders Cup Classic – and take nothing away from her – she was an outstanding race horse.
Yet, if it comes to sheer brilliance, resilience, determination, will power and of course the all important looks – Rachel wins hands down!
2009: it was her year: Unbeaten in eight races, five Grade 1’s, beaten the boys in the Preakness, Haskell, and Woodward as a three year old filly – this unparalleled campaign is probably only matched by all-time legend Sea The Stars!
I can’t state enough that this is only my opinion. In this debate, I guess, there is no right and wrong.
And I totally accept others in their view, claiming Zenyatta’s longevity of a career spanning over 20 races, with 19 victories, most of them in Grade 1 company, only marred by an agonisingly close defeat on the very last day of her career, give her the nod – and I agree, this was an outstanding career from an outstanding horse….
…. yet purely from an emotional point of view I never quite warmed up to her in the same way as I did to Rachel Alexandra. And isn’t that what racing is about? Beside everything else of course. But it’s not all about the betting, and the dream of making some bob on the nags – no, it’s also the sheer beauty of the sport when you witness these special creatures producing special moments.
This special moment – when I fell in love with Rachel Alexandra – it was the first May of 2009, a hot summers day. It’s was been only a bit more than a year that I followed closely the sport of horse racing and back then I was still living in Germany.
Still, I remember it vividly, sitting in front of the laptop, the grainy Racebets stream open – there was this ridiculously short priced favourite in the big race so I threw some Euros on Flying Spur, the second favourite.
Not the wisest investment. Soon it become clear why there was this one filly, called Rachel Alexandra, three to one on in the betting – she slaughtered the field!
She turns for home and Calvin Borel glimpses over his shoulder, the rest of the field is labouring hard but his filly’s still hard on the bridle…. and then…. the ‘WOW’ moment I’ll never forget…..
Still hard held, with every ease in the world she finds another gear, suddenly, so smoothly, she puts the whole world between herself and the rest of the field. WOOOOWW!!!
Horses are special – Rachel Alexandra is extra special. She went on to produce more memorable moments the same year. In the Woodward, the Preakness and the Haskell, then against the boys, fighting through some gruelling finishes she came out always on top.
It took a toll on her. The next season she clearly wasn’t the same. But who can begrudge her? She’s done it all, she showed the world how good she is, Rachel had nothing to prove. She gave us enormous pleasure – to ask her for even more would be greedy.
And so she retired, as the one filly that I’ll keep close to my heart as a racing fan forever and ever.
I want to end this piece with a recommendation to sit back, relax and enjoy this wonderful video below, showing all her big wins – it still gives me chills, even after watching it probably a hundred times by now. Rachel Alexandra: a filly for the ages!
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