Hunting for a winner with Sherlock Holmes

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7.10 Ballinrobe: E.B.F. Maiden, 1m 5f

Some decent sorts in this race but it is impossible to look past the wonderfully bred Sherlock Holmes. He looked a bit clumsy and green on his debut, but this son of Galileo is certainly big and scopey with a stellar pedigree.

He stayed on well at the Curragh over 12f, suggesting a step up in trip would do him no harm. So the 1m 5f distance is probably in his favour today and with natural progression he is expected to have too much on the plate for this lot. It is probably telling that Joseph O’Brien comes down for only this one ride.

Sherlock Holmes @ 11/10 Coral – 10pts Win

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7.40 Ballinrobe: E.B.F. Fillies Handicap (60-90), 1m 5f

You can easily rule out half of the field and bring it down to four runners who are likely to be in the shake-up. That says two fillies do appear to be well handicapped after their latest wins: Majenta and Oceania Queen.

Majenta won a very competitive Handicap at the Curragh despite encountering all sorts of in-running trouble. She took advantage of a career lowest mark and done it in really impressive style. Only 4lb up for this success, she may have still more to offer. Though her overall record is a slight concern if you want to dip into the short price.

I feel Oceania Queen is a better bet. She is much further down the ratings and the weights but appears to be a late bloomer. She ran well on the All-Weather in recent weeks but switched back to turf really took to the better ground which seems key to her. She had a very troubled passage at Fairyhouse the last time but was not to be denied once out in the clear a furlong out.

The handicapper has put her up by 10lb, which could still be lenient as she looks a filly very much on the upward open to any sort of improvement. With a 5lb claimer on the back, she is well in here in my mind. Only slight concern is the additional furlong.

Oceania Queen @ 7/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Oriental Dream Can excel on the All-Weather

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6.00 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Gelded since his most recent and actually rather promising run, Oriental Dream makes appeal from a feather weight in this poor low-grade Handicap. The four year old showed some okay form when racing on better ground, while never took to cut in the ground.

He was outpaced at Redcar last month, but finished well enough in the 6f sprint; the form of this race works out rather well.

Oriental Dream tries the All-Weather for the first time today and that may bring out some improvement. He is bred to go well on it, as his sire Sharmadal has a really good record on the synthetics.

Up in trip to 7f again should suit and he has a good draw plus a a 7lb claimer in the saddle. Not too many excused today, and would be no surprise to see him go close.

Oriental Dream @ 20/1 Coral – 5pts Win

Kingston Mines a Threat with Blinkers

3.00 Scottsville: Track & Ball ‘Derby'(Grade 2)

This stayers contest has been won by Hot Ticket last year in impressive fashion, when it was still held at now defunct Clairwood racecourse over half a furlong longer trip. Now at Scottsville over 2.400m, the same result is expected nonetheless. Hot Ticket is the hot favourite, and for all the right reasons.

He’s South Africa’s top stayer, 112 rated, and has a prime chance in this field with the official ratings weights very much in is favour. No doubt, he’ll be hard to beat as he should be in peak form today after two decent prep runs over shorter. The only thing that may find him out is the trip. 2.400m on quick ground is potentially not his optimum. Nonetheless, I give him a 50% chance of winning the race, given that the opposition has so much to find on the ratings.

Realistically there are only three other runners able to put a fight to Hot Ticket. Disco Al has been in good form lately and stays the 2400m trip well. He is, however, slightly below top class level and was beaten by 5.5 lengths in this race last year. This Ramsden charge is well exposed these days and while sure to run his race, is likely to fall short.

Double Clouth is an improving sort. He tries this trip for the first time and if he stays it it may well help him to progress even further – however there isn’t much in his pedigree suggesting he’ll stay it. There is pace on here and it probably will find him out.

Also on the upward has been Kingston Mines. He has progressed from low grade handicaps into a multiple Grade 2 winner in the staying division. He is likely to be setting the pace here and has top jockey Delpech in the saddle. He was disappointing in his last two starts and has a good deal to find on the ratings. Blinkers are on though, and that could well help to squeeze out a bit of improvement again.

The two three year old’s Krambabuli and Mater James should find it very tough to compete. Even so the former one has to be respected coming from a top yard with an unexposed profile. Says trip and class are against him.

Verdict: No doubt, Hot Ticket is very hard to beat here. However I feel Kingston Mines is a real threat and underestimated. He developed into a very good stayer, is a multiple Stakes winner and is likely to make all from the front with first time blinkers added. He’ll ensure to set a good pace and will try to stretch them entering the home straight.

If this turns out to be the stamina test is should be then, there are only him and the favourite likely to be suited by it. Given that we know how good Hot Ticket is, but can’t be quite sure yet whether Kingston Mine has reached his full potential, I side with this overpriced De Kock runner. If he can improve for the new headgear, he’s in for a very big performance.

Kingston Mines @10/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

Dandyleekie Can Strike in Gowran Handicap

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3.45 Gowran Park: Handicap, 7f

Strong and competitive handicap with some highly rated individuals in the line-up, though not all too many appear well handicapped. If Vastonea would have been showing any sort of form lately he would be interesting here, only 2lb above his Galway Festival winning mark, but the way he’s going at the moment, I’ll leave him alone despite a tasty price.

Ken Condon’s Strait Of Zanzibar is sure to run his race with conditions to suit. He’s rarely running a bad race but for that reason seems stuck in and around marks mid-80 which he may be able to win off, but everything has to fall right in order to do so.

Favouite Laviniad has been on the upward this season and may be able to overcome a big rise in the weights, however the drop to 7f is a concern. Have A Nice Day has also been progressive lately. A career best is required here, but clearly not out of this world with conditions sure to suit.

Bolger’s Wexford Opera ran well off bigger marks in Handicaps last year. He might be sharper after a poor seasonal debut run and has a chance off a good mark but his strike rate doesn’t instil much confidence.

This race is up for grabs for an improving sort, such as the only three year old in the line-up, Ger Lyons’ Dandyleekie.He was a smart juvenile, finishing 3rd behind Lucida in a very strong race twelve month ago.

He started his classic season in encouraging fashion when taking on older horses at Fairyhouse in a Condtions race. He finished last but was only 4l beaten by smart Tamadhor, who herself was a strong 6th in the Irish 1000 Guineas, and only two lengths behind a good 98 rated individual.

Dandyleekie drops into handicaps for the first time now and an opening mark off 91 seems fair. With the weight for age in his favour he should be a big runner, as natural progression may give him the edge against older and more exposed rivals.

Dandyleekie @ 13/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Exciting Memorial Day can get off the mark tonight

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5.25 Ayr: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Favourite Subserive has good form to his name but has gone up in the mark without winning. Career best is required today. Same goes for experienced Vallarta who has a poor winning record and would need to find some sudden improvement.

Most interesting is the Fahey runner Luis Vaz De Torres. Only his third start, he showed promise when winning a Wolverhampton maiden first time out last winter. Five furlongs at Chelmsford was subsequently not the right test but he finished with credit in third behind a smart winner.

Back after a break now, with strong stable form one would hope he is ready to go off a fair mark. He has been gelded since his last run and that as well as natural progression should help to squeeze out enough improvement to go close.

Luis Vaz De Torres @ 7/2 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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8.15 Haydock: Maiden Stakes, 1m

Memorial Day comes off a break but should be fit to run a big race. He has been gelded since his promising debut run half a year ago. He looked pretty green and raw that day, didn’t get a clear run and finished strongly in third. He seems a big, scopey individual though,and with the step up to 1m surely to suit, this well bred gelding is a big player.

Memorial Day @ 3/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

Due Diligence to conquer the Diamond Jubilee

Due Diligence

Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1)

The Aussie colt is a big runner for obvious reasons. He may well be too good. But Due Diligence looks a tasty price, given that he is the one in this field with the real potential of massive improvement in him. We clearly haven’t seen the best of him yet.

Due Diligence was runner-up in this very same race last year. It’s not an easy task for three year olds to race against seasoned top class sprinters, so this was a massive performance. Off the track until his reappearance at the Curragh in April, he didn’t run particularly well but wasn’t right that day as it turned out soon after.

Back to sprinting, with quick ground and a fast pace very likely to suit, one can expect him to peak here today, given how Aiden’s run this week. If he can improve from his three year old form, he has a massive chance to go as close as it gets.

Due Diligence @ 13/2 Coral – 5pts Win

Preview: Royal Ascot – Friday Selections

Home Of The Brave

King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2)

Ol’ Man River is hugely talented but something has been amiss this year; tongue-strap is fitted now. He looked like as horse with breathing problems, so this gear can help sometimes. But I’m concerned, and not prepared to back him at short odds.

Favourite Stravagante was seriously well handicapped at Epsom, steps up in Grade here and has surely more to offer. Not so sure, though, whether he really wants this trip. Ballydoyle’s second string Father Christmas is seriously well bred but not for 12f. That says he looked slow over shorter. Festive Affair and Balios may not appreciate the step up in trip. Magic Dancer should have the stamina but also has loads to find on form.

I give John Gosden’s Mr Singh another chance. He looked potentially smart when winning a hot Handicap at Newbury. Subsequently disappointing at Goodwood, which was a strange race. He was green that day, and the form looks good with the winner a subsequent Derby third. He needs pace and fast ground. Second point is given, first one unclear. Trip looks fine.

Mr Singh @ 12/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win 

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Commonwealth Cup (Group 1)

Couple of fascinating runners here. Obviously speedy Hootenanny is well fancied. Won at Royal Ascot last year and proved to stay a mile at the Breeders Cup. How good he’s coming back as a three year old dropping back in trip, we’ll see. His prep run against very poor opposition didn’t tell us anything. Tongue tied for the first time, I’d be slightly concerned.

Another clash between Anthem Alexander and Tiggy Wiggy. Both with good form this year. I feel the Hannon filly is the slightly better one. Her 1000 Guineas run is a massive performance, given the sectionals she clocked. She might be fighting with Hootenanny for the lead though. Let’s see how that works out.

I restrict myself to one bet in this race and that has to be Home Of The Brave. Mentioned him as an unlikely eye-catcher after the 2000 Guineas. He failed to stay the mile which is no surprise given his pedigree but ran with loads of credit. He confirmed his excellent Listed success over 7f on his seasonal reapperance when he clocked a very fast time. He run the last three furlongs in hand stopped 33.80s and did that easily – this lad has serious speed!

Drawn towards the rail in box two, have to wait and see how it pans out with so much pace on the other side. But I’ve no concerns about the in trip and think there is a huge performance due.

Home Of The Brave @ 18/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Coronation Stakes (Fillies’ Group 1)

People makes excuses for Found; a bit too many for my liking. This is tougher than the Irish Guineas in my mind and she is a silly price in my book.

The French filly Ervedya was a second behind her last year in a big Group 1, but ridden differently now and more mature, I’m sure she’s the better one. She won the French 1000 Guineas in utterly impressive style. Ground is the issue, though. Nothing in her form nor pedigree suggests that she wants it fast.

That’s the opposite for Bolger’s Lucida. Her runner-up effort in the 1000 Guineas was a monster performance. She fell out out of the gates but travelled well, made a bit too much too early and therefore hit the front too early. Nonetheless she went just down to Legatissimo, no disgrace to finish 2nd, well clear of the rest of the field. The winner in contrast had the run of the race, covered all the time, with gaps opening at the right time.

The sectionals confirmed how strong Lucida’s run was. On another day when things are not working to the textbook for the winner, she’s going to prevail easily. If she can follow on from the Guineas, here with conditions to suit, she’s hard to beat.

Lucida @ 7/2 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

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Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Class 2 Handicap)

Dabadiyan is a huge price and rightly so judged on his recent form – but less than 12 month ago he was still able to be competitive in Listed company. Before that he had a rather decent stint at Meydan. He was competitive in Handicaps of big marks and even finished with loads of credit in two Group 2’s.

Quick ground and 12f seems ideal for him judged on his best. A mark of 100 looks still high enough but if he can find back to form he’s able to run a race. I expect him to overcome his draw and to be very prominent. Since he stays a bit further as well he might be still there when others are really hurt. He might as well finish stone last.

Dabadiyan @ 66/1 Ladbrokes – 2.5pts E/W

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Queen’s Vase (Listed)

Very hard to know who’s going to stay this trip, However I’m pretty certain that Star Rider won’t lack the stamina for 2 miles; she might however lack class. But lightly raced she is, done well to win a Chelmsford maiden over 13.5f, found the drop in trip not what she needs at Goodwood subsequently. On rating she has loads to find, but there is stamina all over her pedigree.

Star Rider @ 66/1 Ladbrokes – 2.5pts E/W

Preview: Royal Ascot – Thursday Selections

Twilight Son

Wednesday turned out to be a pretty horrible day from a betting point of view. I guess you could say Bossy Guest was an unlucky loser in the first. A better pace and he probably wins it. Can’t fault the horse, finished well enough. The rest of the day…. well, it didn’t get any better, That’s probably fair to say. So let’s look ahead. There is great racing on tomorrow.

>>Comprehensive Preview for the Gold Cup: Read Here <<

Tercentenary Stakes, 1m 2f

Excellent renewal for this Group 3. Favourite Time Best is a very exciting colt. He won a good Handicap at York recently; couldn’t done that in any better fashion. He’s lovely bred and has all the right credentials to win this race. Only slight concern is the fast ground which he never encountered before.

Main dangers should come from Peacock and the only filly in the race, Irish raider Bocca Baciata. The former one is a Paco Boy son and has improved nicely this year from a fine Kempton run on his seasonal debut, over a runner-up effort behind subsequent Derby winner Golden Horn, to an authoritative Listed race success at Newmarket when upped in trip last month. He stays 10f and acts on quick ground. Good chance.

The Irish filly won a really good 10f race at Navan earlier this year, which is extremely strong form. She lacked the speed in the Irish 1.000 Guineas afterwards when dropped in trip, though. But she travelled really well that day and back up in trip must be taken seriously. Although it’s never easy against the boys.

Couple more could feature, like progressive Disegno or even Mustadeem, who may find this race more suitable than when second behind Peacock in a trappy affair.

One shouldn’t forget to mention the Dermot Weld’s runner Don Camillo. Lightly raced and progressive on the All-Weather, he won a Dundalk maiden in great fashion and travelled all over older more experienced rivals in a Handicap off a mid-90 mark the next time. He was outstayed eventually but should have learned plenty.

He was thought to be good enough to warrant an entry for the US Triple Crown series, though he didn’t take it up eventually. Nonetheless quite well bred, by a Breeders Cup Classic winner, Don Camillo is likely to relish the fast conditions at Ascot. With further improvement to come, he’s a very lively outsider in this field.

Don Camillo @ 33/1 Stan James – 5pts Win

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Ribblesdale Stakes, 1m 4f

Irish 1000 Guineas winner Pleascach is a warm favourite for this Fillies’ Group 2. She steps up markedly in trip, though is expected to take to it without a problem. She won over 10f earlier this year and the Guineas was run as a real test of stamina, which suited her. She’ll take plenty of beating if she runs to her official rating.

Second favourite Pamona was a bit unlucky in a Listed event recently. But she doesn’t strike me as a filly who wants much further than 10 furlongs. The same goes for progressive Curvy, who was able to beat a well fancied stable mate the last time.

Aiden O’Brien’s Wedding Vow has been a disappointing favourite in the Lingfield Oaks trial. She didn’t get the run of the race there and seemed to lack focus in the closing stages. Blinkered for the first time she could be much sharper here. But she is still a maiden and her form is far from special.

If you want to take on the top notch Bolger filly – and I am prepared to do that – you better don’t underestimate John Gosden’s charge Gretchen. Only a one time raced maiden winner to date, one should really watch her debut run at Newmarket, where she made a very big impression on me.

She was green – naturally – slowly out of the gates too, but then settled well and made gradually progress. I liked the way she went through the gears travelling on the outside to increase the heat step by step. She was only pushed out, never saw the stick, but won a useful maiden in authoritative style in the end.

This filly looks exceptional from a physical point of view and is equally bred to be a star; she is open to any amount of improvement. John Gosden must think allot of her to throw her in at the deep end here, but if she can overcome inexperience, she must be one who is able to give the favourite something to think about.

Gretchen @ 11/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Britannia Stakes, 1 mile

As always in these big Handicaps, the race may be decided where the pace is coming from. It’s hard to break it down in this field I’ve to admit – it could go either way.

Two horses stand out from a value perspective in this huge field: Certainly it’s Mr. Halford’s lightly raced Portage. I missed the 14’s but still think 12/1 is rather big – as long as he gets a run; he’ll be hard to beat by any horse here. I come to this rather bold conclusion because I believe this lad is extremely well handicapped.

He earned glowing reports from his trainer after winning a Curragh maiden second time out towards the end of last season. It’s pretty strong form but he was always sure to improve for the step up to 1m. He reappeared at the Curragh over 1m in a hot Handicap in May, taking on some older, experienced and seasoned horses. He travelled really well, made eye-catching progress but never got a run on the inside and was eased eventually.

It’s rare to see in Ireland, but here the Handicapper has been lenient. He dropped Portage by 2lb! Of course I might be wrong but to me this individual looks a good 10 to 15 pounds better and could easily turn out to be a Stakes performer.

Second horse to highlight is another Godolphin charge: Emirates Airline. He absolutely demolished a 1m maiden field at Chelmsford on his seasonal debut and followed up at Newmarket in a good Handicap over 10f with a fine performance. He was very keen early on – that’s why the hood is added this time – and was let lose by his jockey soon after the start. He just got outstayed in the dying strides.

The drop in trip back to 1m will suit him I feel, so should the likely fast pace in this race. It should keep him settled and occupied throughout. I fancy him to outrun his big price tag.

Portage @ 12/1 Coral – 5pts Win
Emirates Airline @ 33/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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King George V Stakes, 1m 4f

Surprisingly many of these 19 runners look vulnerable from a pure stamina point of view. Only four distance winners in the field, which one could rather easily oppose on form, while the rest tries the trip for the first time in most cases and only very few seem actually suited by the 1m 4f distance. That says two individuals stand out for me in terms of the improvement like to come for the new trip.

First one is Dartmouth – he is out of a Group 3 winning Galileo mare, so should be capable of getting 12 furlongs. He finished 4th in the legendary 10f Sandown Handicap which made Jack Hobbs a temporary favourite for the Epsom Derby. He subsequently won a Handicap himself; same place, same trip. Positive tactics worked and he just held on to win in a photo.

He’s far from flashy but looks one who’ll be better with time as well as when stepping up in trip. His revised mark off 83 seems more than fair. In fact it might underestimate his true potential given his sexy breeding.

As an alternative, but equally sure to improve for 12 furlongs, I select Maxwell. He’s not a quick horse by any means, but has been progressive this season, starting with a success on the Wolverhampton playtrack over 9f. He followed up at Salisbury on his Handicap debut when upped to 10f.

Both times he was going away in the final 100 yards or so, clearly indicating his superior stamina reserves. There is indeed enough stamina on his dam side to support the visual impression and I expect him to improve for the new trip. A mark off 86 doesn’t need to be the end for him.

Dartmouth @ 14/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
Maxwell @ 20/1  Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Preview: Royal Ascot – Gold Cup (Group 1)

Ascot Grand Stand, by Florian Christoph

What a race in prospect – even if turns out that favourite Forgotten Rules isn’t going to run – which looks increasingly likely given the fast ground. My short-list is long because if you want, you could make a serious case for at least half the field. It’s that strong a renewal of this prestigious stayers contest.

Of course if Dermot Weld decides to run Forgotten Rules, regardless of the ground, you have to give this lightly raced five year old a big chance. He’s such an exciting prospect in this division, unbeaten in four starts, and already a Group 2 winner over 2 miles. However the fast conditions are a serious concern, and I’m prepared to take him on for this reason. So let’s check in on all the other runners.

Bathyrhon: Excellent prep run in France last month. Runner-up in Group 1 Prix Du Cadran last season over 2m 4f. So stays the trip and best form came on sound surface. One would think the quick ground isn’t an issue. Has a turn of foot and can be ridden any way. Classy prospect.

Biographer: Has some fair staying form. Second in Long Distance Cup last season. But overall profile suggests he’s likely to fall short in this class.

Havana Beat: Career best in Dubai Gold Cup over 2m earlier this year, followed up with another good performance at York. Stamina a big concern over this trip and long way beaten in this race last year.

Kalann: Fair Irish stayer. Runner-up in last years Doncaster Cup but should find this here way too hot.

Simenon: Done well in the Gold Cup in recent years. Consistent performer and can’t be underestimated. But lacks a change of gear which is required to win, and therefore likely to fall short yet again.

Tac De Boistron: Classy stayer, multiple Group 1 winner. Would be major player if the ground comes soft. That is unlikely, though, and will make life difficult for him.

Forever Now: Tried 2 miles twice this year. Ran okay without setting the world alight. Hard to fancy.

Kingfisher: Well bred individual. Runner-up in 2014 Irish Derby. Aimed towards staying contests this year and did well to win prep race at Leopardstown a fortnight ago. Definite player and likely to relish this test but merit of form is debatable.

Mizzou: Top class prospect. Won Group 3 over 2 miles at Ascot on his seasonal reappearance. He looks a real stayer and will be better the further he goes. Still lightly raced, he is open to any amount of improvement and quite clearly a key player in the Gold Cup.

Scotland: Zero chance.

Trip To Paris: Improving stayer. Will relish the trip. Won Chester Cup earlier this year and slightly unlucky when last seen. Conditions will suit and big chance if this race isn’t one too many after a very busy campaign in recent weeks.

Vent De Force: Exciting prospect. Big, bold, raw. A stayer. Bit unlucky on his seasonal comeback at Ascot when runner-up behind Mizzou. But made no mistake the next time at Sandown when ridden from the front. He’s a scopey galloping sort, one who has plenty of stamina on both sire and dam side. Will love the conditions.

Windshear: Good fourth in last years Leger. Has been disappointing on most occasions ever since.

Verdict: Regardless of whether Forgotten Rules is going to post, this is an ultra-competitive contest. That says it may well be worth to side with the improving individuals. Mizzou is one of those. He looks a real stayer and must have a prime chance. However he’s a rather skinny price and I fail to see why Vent De Force is twice his price.

This Vent De Force didn’t get a clear run when these two met at Ascot earlier this year but he made no mistake the next time. He looks a very exciting prospect, is sure to relish trip and ground and is one I feel should be a shorter price.

I like to see Kingfisher to improve again. He’s a very interesting contender, but I question his form and others have stronger credentials. Trip To Paris is one of those. I feel though, he has done so much this season already, he might run out of gas this time.

That won’t happen to French raider Bathyrhon. He’ll stay every inch of the 2m 4f trip. He has top form to offer and is a very big price in my book. Connections expect a big run, as long as he handles the preliminaries of parade and the large crowd.

Vent De Force @ 8/1 Coral – 5pts Win
Bathyrhon @ 10/1 Coral – 5pts Win

Preview: Royal Ascot – Wednesday Selections

Bossy Guest

The first day of Royal Ascot hasn’t been easy. It started horrible with a dismal performance by Able Friend. And it all went downhill from there. Okay, Air Force Blue did well, but didn’t win, so what does it matter? Nothing. Thankfully Washington Dc saved the day, although it’s been not good for my heart. But what could have been a disastrous day, ended only with a minimal loss in the end.

So let’s see, what’s on the tab tomorrow – The Prince Of Wales’s Stakes as the highlight of the day obviously. I really look forward to this. You can find a comprehensive preview for the race in this article. The best of the rest comes here now.

Jersey Stakes (Group 3)

I’m a big fan of Ivawood. You won’t see many better looking horses. He drops in class and has a prime chance. But 7/4 is a shocking price, given the fact that he has to give weight away to some fine rivals. This is quite an open looking race but for me Bossy Guest is underestimated.

He shares form with Ivawood through the 2000 Guineas. Ivawood finished 3rd, Bossy Guest 4th, half a lengths between the two. Bossy Guest meets Ivawood on five pounds better terms here, while he has only 2lb to find on the ratings – albeit over shorter 7 furlongs this time.

Bossy Guest was a bit unlucky in the Guineas. He travelled very well but didn’t find a gap on his side over 2f out so moved to the center which cost him momentum and some lengths. He was hampered subsequently which must have lost him further momentum, yet he finished well once in the clear.

I suspect he is a better horse over 7f. He stays a mile alright, but was also speedy enough to win a big sales race over 6f earlier this year. His late acceleration in that particular race was very impressive.

Dangers could be lightly raced Hathal, although he has to improve obviously. The penny seemed to drop for Sir Isaac Newton recently, but the trip is a bit of a question mark as he is actually bred for the Derby trip. Toscanini is a slightly frustrating sort but this test may suit. I like Tupi from the bigger prices to do well.

Bossy Guest @ 9/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2)

All about Integral here? Yes it is! The filly can match the boys as she proved in the Lockinge when she ran out a strong fourth place finish. She is a multiple Group 1 winner over the mile, she acts on any kind of ground and she won this very same race last year in commanding fashion. Alright, let’s put the mortgage on Integral, shall we?

Ah no, better not! There is a horse I fancy to take her on with for a much bigger price: Bragging. She is a 10/1 chance and I feel she is better than that. Bragging hasn’t been out of the money in all her career starts, except a recent below par performance in the Middleton Stakes at York – a strange race, which came over 10.5f; won by the front-runner. I’m happy to forgive her and if you can do so too you’ll see a progressive & lightly raced filly.

She impressed at Newmarket where she won a Group 3 over 9f on her seasonal reappearance. They went quite a clip and the splits were good. Bragging showed guts to get up in the end and this run promised allot. I don’t think the drop to a mile is causing her any trouble. She has enough pace.

Of course on the ratings she has a bit to find with the hot favourite and it might well turn out that Integral is too good. But Bragging deserves her chance. Conditions will be just about right for her and in this field she has a stronger chance to win than the odds suggest at this point.

Bragging @ 10/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap)

This is ultra competitive. Plenty of good form on offer and I like more than a handful of horses. But here’s where I need to stick to my values of trying to exploit “bookie errors”. The 25/1 for Mondialiste is obviously a monstrous price.

He was a smart horse in France before changing yards. On his UK debut he just fell short in the Lincoln by a neck, beaten by Gabrial, who subsequently franked the form. Mondialiste travelled really well that day but may committed a bit too early and just got tired in the end which helped the late charge of Gabrial.

He went on to finish a fine runner-up in the Sefton Stakes behind French Navy, which is very strong form, given that the third, Arod, was subsequently an impressive 3rd in the Lockinge Stakes and won a Group 3 on Derby day in brilliant style.

Mondialiste went on to finish third in a Listed race at Ascot over 1m. Probably a slightly disappointing effort, as he was beaten by a good five lengths. However it was his third tough effort within four weeks after his seasonal debut. It may have been just a bit too much. He has been off for the last two month and now well rested and fresh a big run is expected of what looks a fair mark.

Mondialiste @ 25/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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