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United Kingdom

Tuesday Selections: Redcar & Southwell

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2000 Guineas Field going to post

2.00 Redcar: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f

I feel key form to this race is a recent York Handicap over 10f which was won by Empress Ali. The four year old filly overcame the widest draw in a 20 runner strong field. Back here today she remains of interest despite a raise of 6lb in her mark as well as a step up in class. With that she won two of her last three starts, while the one in between she was a good third.

Empress Ali thrives in soft ground, so should certainly love these conditions today. From a good draw she has to enter calculations and could be able to overcome a career highest mark.

A good third that day at York was El Beau. He was a bit unlucky as when he finally was in the clear the race was gone. He stayed on well and will enjoy conditions here at Redcar. However he is on a high enough mark given his depressing strike rate. Nonetheless he should be the mane danger for Empress Ali, who is, though, a really good price to follow-up.

Empress Ali @ 6/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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3.10 Southwell: Class 4 Handicap, 2m

Southwell is back! Fibresand action… yeah! Winter is back… that’s what is actually means. There is this decent two mile handicap on the card today, although it’s less competitive than what these races usually are. Only three, max. four of these have a chance – on what we know.

I can see why Brassbound is a clear favourite. He has a fine record here at Southwell and won over the 2m trip before. He did so on his penultimate start over CD, and it’s not impossible that he has still more to offer. But he has a career highest mark to defy. Seven years olds don’t do that all too often, so I’m prepared to take him on.

Tartan Jura is an interesting contender, as if he’s fully wound up and fit on debut for his new yard after an extensive lay-off, he has to be bang there. But you will need to show a lot of trust.

Ullswater for new connections now based in the UK makes his fibresand debut and has not too much form on the flat. He’s kind of exposed for that reason and really hard to know what to get.

Most interesting candidate and the value in the race is The Quarterjack. He’s on his second start on Fibresand and seemingly liked it on his debut earlier this year over 14f when fair runner-up over. He’s 3lb lower in the mark and should appreciate the additional two furlongs.

While he hasn’t been in any sort of form lately, the return to this track is interesting and can rejuvenate him. It has to if he wants to beat the others, but I’m prepared to give him this chance.

The Quarterjack @ 5/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win 

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Lingfield: Lamar Can Bounce Back

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booker

It’s annoying – another second yesterday! Salient ran a blinder at 20/1, but didn’t win. Three second places this week so far, all good prices, none went in. It’s a tough game from time to time.

3.20 Lingfield: Fleur De Lys Fillies’ Stakes (Listed), 1m 1f

Lightly raced Godolphin filly Very Special has to be respected, given she has the weight for age allowance and is open to any amount of improvement after an impressive success at Kempton when last seen. However this dates more than 200 days back, which is a concern. Whether she stays the additional furlong while stepping up in class is another question mark.

The other three year olds in this race make not too much appeal to my eyes. Pack Together and Alfajer ran second and third in a good Ascot Listed event earlier this month. But the step up to 9f is a major concern as their pedigree doesn’t scream stamina.

Form wise it is hard to oppose Rekdhat. Third in a Group 3 in Turkey recently, she looks primed for a big run here, if she is able to overcome the wide draw and slight stamina concerns. Those concerns are valid, though, and could find her out here.

Top rated Dusky Queen can’t be discounted, although she has to give weight away and has concerns about trip too.

Very little in this field stands out and that brings Lamar very much into contention. She has been poor on turf, couldn’t confirm her strong winter form. But she is back after a break which may have helped her as in the past it did seem to do her the world when she returned as a fresh horse.

She won two competitive Conditions Stakes at Wolverhampton and Lingfield back in January, confirmed this with a runner-up effort in the Winter Derby Trial and ran out another impressive second when dropped to 7f in the Fillies’ and Mares All-Weather Championship.

Trip and track will suit her perfectly today, she has a good draw and might be able to dominate here from the front. Other than that she is one of the best All-Weather fillies around and that gives her a prime chance today.

Lamar @ 4/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win 

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Kempton: Welsh Inlet Has Tactical Advantage

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DSC_0458

8.25 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

I can see why the three year old Boarding Party is fancied here. He is one of very few with the slight hope of a bit of improvement. But on what he has shown so far it’s hard to be too euphoric about him either.

What may decide this race is who gets first run. There seems to be a distinct lack of pace in this race. That brings a couple into the equation who have proved to be comfortable on their own in the past. Red Cossack or Charlies Mate for example, as well as Welsh Inlet. None of these is sure to go forward though, for a variety of reasons.

In my mind Welsh Inlet makes most appeal though. He won in soft conditions over 1m at stamina demanding Brighton this year making all. While 7f is his optimum he has proven to get this little bit further too. Which could be vital here. The other two times he won this season he was very prominent as well.

So there are indications enough to suggest that he will be up with the pace if not attempting to make all today from a perfect draw. I’m pretty sure that’ll be a big advantage. From a handicapping point of view Welsh Inlet makes perfect sense as a main contender in this field. He’s rated 60 at the moment and he has won off this mark earlier this year, albeit on turf.

Whether he is quite that good on the All-Weather these days remains to be seen but judged on recent form where he was 68 at Windsor when last seen means he is certainly in excellent form.

Welsh Inlet @ 8/1 VC – 5pts Win

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Kempton: Salient Can Outrun Big Odds

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Dundalk All-Weather

19.55 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

Really only one horse stands out here: Salient. He’s quite a big price which opens the question whether today is his day. However his record says he can cause an upset alright. He meets ideally conditions here in terms of field size, trip and is down to his last AW winning mark.

His Kempton record is slightly concerning, given Slient is usually an excellent All-Weather horse. But then those poor runs came all over much shorter trips. He was found out for class in a class 4 Handicap at Epsom when last seen but won back in September at Goodwood.

He gets the assistance of talented 7lb claimer Callum Shepperd who has ridden Salient in most of his races this season and won twice on him, including back in May at Lingfield’s All-Weather over 12f off the same mark Salient is on at the moment. Plum draw should suit to go forward.

All depends whether Salient is on a good day – if so he’s going to be a big danger to the short priced favourite Jack Bear, who has fair credentials but doesn’t look like a 2/1 shot at all!

Salient @ 16/1 VC – 5pts Win

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Bangor: Keychain’s value

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National Hunt Fence

3.30 Bangor: Class 4 Handicap Chase, 2m 1f

A brutal race, extremely uncompetitive and I can only see three horses with realistic chances to land it, while none of these can be trusted to deliver, though. Gee Hi on old form makes appeal, but a more than two years long lay-off he hasn’t been exactly excelled over fences in two starts and it is hard to know what to get.

Seemingly the best chance is Chankillo, who brings winning form from a lower class chase over 19f into this race. The drop in trip may not be a problem and if he can overcome a career highest mark then he’s clearly the one to beat… if he can.

Best value appears to be Keychain. He is down to his last winning mark and was slightly unlucky a fortnight ago at Huntingdon when he stayed on strongly in third after a troubled run. The drop in trip on good ground at a sharp track seems not ideal, but he has won over 17f in the past and has as good chance to win this race as anybody.

Keychain is more than double the price of Chankillo, so it’s clear to me who’s the better value. That says none of these will likely ever find a better chance to win race.

Keychain @ 11/2 VC – 5pts Win

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Tuesday Selections: Catterick

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Newmarket Rowley Mile tight finish

1.10 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 4f

You can discount half of the field on ground concerns pretty easily, and given the nature of the track, usually favouring handy sorts, it brings the list of contenders down to a handful.

I like to go with a type likely to act in the soft conditions, has form on this strange course and is sure to be up with the pace. Multellie jumps out in this field at 9/1, given he has excellent form to offer, if we forgive him his latest run at Chester from a wide draw in better class.

Down here in class 4, he has a handy draw, won really well at Ripon three back, and confirmed his well-being subsequently with another bold bid here at Cattrick over 12f in a very hot race. He’s on a high mark but with conditions sure to suit he’s overpriced in this field.

Multellie @ 9/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

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2.15 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Plenty in with a chance here but I’m very much drawn to Woody Bay who drops back to his preferred 7f trip as well as in class and looks still on a pretty good mark. He won here over CD last month in excellent style, beating two well handicapped rivals in second and third. He followed up with a strong performance in a hot Class 2 Handicap subsequently, but was found out for the 9f trip when last seen.

With his course and distance form and the soft ground sure to suit, as well as recent forms all franked, he is a likely sort to go close and certainly overpriced. Only concern is the wide draw obviously. He will need to overcome it somehow. If he can get a good break and is right up with the pace early on he will have a great chance.

That’s the obvious question mark as the race may be already lost after the start. I’m prepared to take the risk as even that factored into the price doesn’t justify 8’s in my mind.

Woody Bay @ 8/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

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Betting: Monday Selections

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Leicester Racecourse

A really nice performance by Sound Investment at Aintree yesterday afternoon brought the week down – finally a positive one, betting wise. Sound Investment jumped well, travelled well and out battled his rivals in the closing stages, powering home in the final furlong. Some sight, for me in particular, given that my selections haven’t done that all too often in recent weeks.

1.50 Leicester: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

An open looking affair here at Leicester in the mud today, with most of these having no issue with this type of ground whatsoever. Least the favourite who looks well handicapped on old form and will be difficult to peg back should he enjoy an easy lead up on front. So Robert The Painter is certainly the one to beat, but a rather shortish price in this strong field…

Top of the weights Educate has been disappointing since finishing second in a Listed event back in May. He drops to a handy mark though. Question mark is whether he has the form to take advantage of it. Marcret in contrast certainly has been in good form lately and another good run is on the cards, he isn’t all that well handicapped, on the other side.

Veteran Pintura finds the mile trip his limit stamina wise usually, but he’ll enjoy the conditions today. He showed plenty when close runner-up at the Galway festival in an ultra competitive affair back in August and was a shade unlucky not to win at Ayr one month earlier. He’ll be competitive if the sparkle is back.

Not harshly treated by the handicapper has been Jack’s Revenge after a good runner-up effort at Chester recently. His poor strike is a concern, however. Athletic may find this trip a tick too far in soft ground conditions, but has place claims, at least.

Polar Forest is only 2lb above his last winning mark, although has found life difficult whenever he stepped up in class. He loves these conditions, so can’t be ruled out, still. And the same goes for Spirit Of Law, how might prefer it a bit further generally, but will enjoy the slow conditions. Hard to know what to get from Storm Rock today, but he is still lightly raced, so may have more to offer.

Summary: You can’t rule out any of the nine runners, although some have better credentials than others. I really like Robert The Painter but not his price tag. I take a chance on Pintura instead. He hasn’t been in good form lately, but if he finds back some sparkle he can be dangerous. He’ll be competitive off his current mark, given he finished a head beaten second at the Galway Festival. He’s the overpriced runner in this field in my mind.

Pintura @ 25/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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3.55 Ayr: Novice Handicap Chase (Clas 3), 2m 4f 110y

I feel the favourite Jack Steel is quite a skinny price. I can see why, to an extend: lightly raced and potential for big improvement. But does he look like a chaser? I’m not sure. He is a full-brother to two horses who have achieved zero – I’m prepared to take him on.

I really like the look of the grey Un Noble instead. He is a big, scopey chaser in the making, equally lightly raced. He won a Handicap Hurdle earlier this year in nice style over this sort of trip and any cut in the ground won’t inconvenience him. Un Noble is the type of horse sure to improve for the switch to fences and therefore represents better value than the favourite.

Have to call out Dr Moloney as well, who is likely to benefit from the drop in rip . However I have reservations about the ground and he might be one to keep an eye on for the future.

Un Noble @ 9/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Wincanton: Don’t underestimate Best Boy Barney

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Aintree parade ring

2.30 Aintree: Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Class 2)

It’s easy to see why Danimix is favoured to complete a hat-trick today. He was utterly impressive in his last two, for whatever reason clearly a rejuvenated horse and this race doesn’t look too deep. Question mark is a career highest mark.

Better value than the 5/2 favourite may be Grade 2 winning chaser Ely Brown. It is a concern that he didn’t complete either of his last three races, but the break will likely done him the world of good and his record as a fresh horse is remarkable. He has won twice at Aintree before and also over the 3m 1f trip.

He gets a big chance by the handicapper, having been dropped to 135 now – his last winning mark, albeit over hurdles. But judged on Novice Chase Grade 2 success, he could be leniently treated today, if he can find his old sparkle back. Top jockey is booked, so he has every chance to run well.

Ely Brown @ 6/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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2.45 Wincanton: Handicap Chase (Class 3)

Competitive stayers contest where most of the eight starts are in with a fair chance. The “sexy” horse the Nicholls favourite Cowards Close but given the competitive nature of this race, he’s a skinny price. If According To Trev could find back to his best form, he’d be a prime selection for this race, but his last three starts are clear reason for concern.

I do like Handy Andy as the bottom weight to go well, his poor win record puts me off though. Forgotten Gold and Standing Ovation have a decent shout in this, but Best Boy Barney looks underestimated in this field.

He has been mostly competitive in his last handful or so starts, rarely goes really wrong. He won at Kempton back in April a good chase and followed up with another nice performance at the same venue when runner-up behind Champion Court – a very strong piece of form.

He didn’t quite run to the same sort of form the next two, but this here looks a bit easier, and with conditions sure to suit as well as fitness assured, he could run a big race.

Best Boy Barney @ 12/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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Preview: Monet’s Garden Old Roan Chase

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Aintree Racecourse

A hugely competitive renewal of this Grade 2 race, certainly a tougher contest than the one Wishful Thinking won last year. The 12 year old has a difficult task on hand to try and defend his crown. Because he is down to last years handicap mark he is not completely out of it, but others make certainly more appeal.

Jonjo O’Neill’s Johns Spirit is one of those well fancied runners. He’s done remarkably well as a fresh horse in the last number of years, so a bold bid is expected. A career best is required, but this progressive chaser has a good chance to go close judged on his fair effort in the Grade 1 Melling Chase when last seen at this very same venue.

Rajdhani Express has won here at Aintree over the Grand National fences on his final start last season. He is competitive on that particular form obviously, although his win record isn’t all that impressive and a big mark makes life not easy today against excellent opposition.

Always improving over the last two seasons has been Paul Nicholls’ charge Sound Investment. The seven year old won four of his ten starts over fences and was placed in three more of those. He rounded up last season with an excellent Grade 3 success at Newbury and connections will hope for further progress this year.

He already has a prep run under his belt – he run okay in a competitive Grade 3 hurdle a fortnight ago and was lucky not to exit the race after the first when his young jockey almost fell off. He’s expected to come on for the run and that should put him right into the mix here of a good mark.

Another rather lightly raced sort over fences is Buywise, who already has a Grade 2 success to his name. Last season he only won over hurdles, although he was competitive in strong races, mostly around Cheltenham. He’s on a competitive mark but will need to prove that he can act on this flat speed track as well.

Duke Of Navan is an interesting contender. So far mostly tested over two miles, he will step up in trip and we find out whether his stamina holds up. If he stays the distance he’ll be right there when it matters I suspect.

It’s hard to trust Splash Of Ginge these day but on best form he can be in the mix. The Irish bring over Lord Ben. A versatile chaser, who was not disgraced when last seen at Listowel behind a good Gigginstown winner, although more is required here.

You can’t fully rule out Brave Spartacus who has fitness on his side. He’s already a Listed Chase winner and could improve again. It’s harder to make a case for Surf An Turf and also Le Bacardy, as those two will have to prove their worthiness in this competitive field.

Summary: This is an excellent renewal: competitive and close to call. Price wise I feel Sound Investment makes the most appeal though. He’s expected to be fit and is a progressive sort, probably not at the end of the road yet in terms of improvement and should love the conditions here. His mark gives him every chance and connections had this race in mind for a long time.

Sound Investment @ 9/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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Newbury Preview: St Simon Stakes

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Newbury

2.25 Newbury: St Simon Stakes (Group 3), 1m 4f

Hard to put much face into any of the nine horses – although Romsdal, judged on his placed efforts, would be an obvious pick. But his strike rate is poor, and the fact that he only won on the Kempton All-Weather and never really excelled in similar races like this today means he is one to oppose.

Favourite filly Koora is a likeable, lightly raced sort with room for further improvement. But given what she has done so far it’s impossible to see any value in her 5/2 price tag.

I like Rawaki from the older horses. He has a profile to do well here, if in the right mood. You definitely can’t rule out progressive three year old filly Melodious either, though she has to prove that she can win on this level over a trip that far.

The most intriguing contender, and clearly the one with the most scope for improvement, is three times raced Moderah. She comes into this race as a relatively fresh individual, having only two starts this season. She made a big impression when getting off the mark last month in a Leicester maiden. Travelling all over her modest rivals, finding plenty when given a tiny bit of reign in the final furlong.

Obviously she has it all to prove, stepping up dramatically in trip. But with the fair chance of improvement this seemingly talented individual makes loads of appeal to me. In the context of the race I believe she is too big a price.

Moderah @ 6/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win