8.25 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

I can see why the three year old Boarding Party is fancied here. He is one of very few with the slight hope of a bit of improvement. But on what he has shown so far it’s hard to be too euphoric about him either.

What may decide this race is who gets first run. There seems to be a distinct lack of pace in this race. That brings a couple into the equation who have proved to be comfortable on their own in the past. Red Cossack or Charlies Mate for example, as well as Welsh Inlet. None of these is sure to go forward though, for a variety of reasons.

In my mind Welsh Inlet makes most appeal though. He won in soft conditions over 1m at stamina demanding Brighton this year making all. While 7f is his optimum he has proven to get this little bit further too. Which could be vital here. The other two times he won this season he was very prominent as well.

So there are indications enough to suggest that he will be up with the pace if not attempting to make all today from a perfect draw. I’m pretty sure that’ll be a big advantage. From a handicapping point of view Welsh Inlet makes perfect sense as a main contender in this field. He’s rated 60 at the moment and he has won off this mark earlier this year, albeit on turf.

Whether he is quite that good on the All-Weather these days remains to be seen but judged on recent form where he was 68 at Windsor when last seen means he is certainly in excellent form.

Welsh Inlet @ 8/1 VC – 5pts Win