Bangor: Keychain’s value

National Hunt Fence

3.30 Bangor: Class 4 Handicap Chase, 2m 1f

A brutal race, extremely uncompetitive and I can only see three horses with realistic chances to land it, while none of these can be trusted to deliver, though. Gee Hi on old form makes appeal, but a more than two years long lay-off he hasn’t been exactly excelled over fences in two starts and it is hard to know what to get.

Seemingly the best chance is Chankillo, who brings winning form from a lower class chase over 19f into this race. The drop in trip may not be a problem and if he can overcome a career highest mark then he’s clearly the one to beat… if he can.

Best value appears to be Keychain. He is down to his last winning mark and was slightly unlucky a fortnight ago at Huntingdon when he stayed on strongly in third after a troubled run. The drop in trip on good ground at a sharp track seems not ideal, but he has won over 17f in the past and has as good chance to win this race as anybody.

Keychain is more than double the price of Chankillo, so it’s clear to me who’s the better value. That says none of these will likely ever find a better chance to win race.

Keychain @ 11/2 VC – 5pts Win

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