Gelded since his most recent and actually rather promising run, Oriental Dream makes appeal from a feather weight in this poor low-grade Handicap. The four year old showed some okay form when racing on better ground, while never took to cut in the ground.
He was outpaced at Redcar last month, but finished well enough in the 6f sprint; the form of this race works out rather well.
Oriental Dream tries the All-Weather for the first time today and that may bring out some improvement. He is bred to go well on it, as his sire Sharmadal has a really good record on the synthetics.
Up in trip to 7f again should suit and he has a good draw plus a a 7lb claimer in the saddle. Not too many excused today, and would be no surprise to see him go close.
Favourite Subserive has good form to his name but has gone up in the mark without winning. Career best is required today. Same goes for experienced Vallarta who has a poor winning record and would need to find some sudden improvement.
Most interesting is the Fahey runner Luis Vaz De Torres. Only his third start, he showed promise when winning a Wolverhampton maiden first time out last winter. Five furlongs at Chelmsford was subsequently not the right test but he finished with credit in third behind a smart winner.
Back after a break now, with strong stable form one would hope he is ready to go off a fair mark. He has been gelded since his last run and that as well as natural progression should help to squeeze out enough improvement to go close.
Luis Vaz De Torres @ 7/2 Bet365 – 5pts Win
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8.15 Haydock: Maiden Stakes, 1m
Memorial Day comes off a break but should be fit to run a big race. He has been gelded since his promising debut run half a year ago. He looked pretty green and raw that day, didn’t get a clear run and finished strongly in third. He seems a big, scopey individual though,and with the step up to 1m surely to suit, this well bred gelding is a big player.
Quick conditions at Bath, seems to suit most in this small but competitive field. You can see why Hannington is well fancied. Won well lto and only 3lb up seems lenient. A good 7lb claimer on board gives him every chance to run big, given more is likely to come from this lightly raced gelding. This is a much tougher race today, though, against good opposition. So not it’s worth to look for alternatives to take the short priced favourite on.
Drop in trip should suit top weight Stosur. He should run well but isn’t particularly well weighted, given his record. Mister Musicmaster is in top form this year and may have his best ever chance to achieve a career best. Starlit Cantata in contrast may not enjoy the drop in trip, despite good recent form.
Most interesting runner is Ogbourne Downs in my eyes. He won this very same race last year and won again last season at Kempton of his current mark. He started 2015 in very hot Handicaps and this here represents a much easier task. Down to his last winning mark, with a 7lb claimer on board, he should feature prominently and looks overpriced.
Bit of a shocker yesterday – neither Bartholomew Fair nor Tamasha could land a blow and finished down the field. While Tamasha looked dangerous for a moment and may needed simply the run, Bartholomew Fair was very keen throughout and didn’t run any sort of a race.
It’s easy to see why Encore L’amour is favourite to land this Listed event. Her creditable runner-up effort behind subsequent Oaks third Lady Of Dubai is the best form on offer. She may well improve from the run and you have to think this looks an ideal opportunity to score for her.
I feel she is opposable on the basis of her short price, though. As she was beaten at Goodwood by quite a margin nonetheless and it’s not unlikely that something else in this race can improve in a way to be a real thread.
I like lightly raced Jasmine Blue. She is better than the bare form of her last run at Newbury. Speedy Boarding is another unexposed sort with potential of dramatic improvement.
However I feel the Irish raider Hot Sauce is overpriced. John Murphy’s inmate is a good looking, big and scopey filly who’s certainly progressive. She won a hot Gowran Park maiden on quick ground – this form works out pretty well. She stepped up into Handicap company and ran a huge race in a competitive field at the Curragh last month. Just beaten in the dying strides in a wild finish by an equally progressive sort who went on to win again subsequently.
She deserves a go at Listed Level and with more improvement to come from here, she must be a major player today, given conditions are going to suit her down to the grounds.
Satellite wasn’t too far beaten in a very tough Handicap at York the last time. He didn’t have the run of the race and can come on for it. Back up in trip, down in grade and dropped 2 pounds he’s a key contender today. That says he’s to raise his game too, given that his only win was a maiden success over a year ago and since then he hasn’t finished in the money.
Revitalized Chancery goes back to 12f and has already shown some fine form this season. He needs to be back to his very best to win off his current mark and I’m not sure if he is really up to it these days. English Summer is on a workable mark without giving the impression to be overly well handicapped. Chance on best form, but not shown anything this year so far.
The race will inevitably evolve around lightly raced filly Tamasha. She was very impressive winning a maiden at Salisbury last year and was clearly not disgraced in a hot Listed event on the Lingfield All-Weather subsequently, when she got a troubled trip due to a wide draw.
As a daughter of Sea The Stars she is likely to improve as a three year old and out of a Group 3 winning Sadler’s Wells mare she is sure to relish middle-distance trips. Race fitness and quick ground are questions marks, but if she can overcome them she is entitled to run a big race of a mark which could easily underestimate her true potential. At 4/1 I’m rather on her than against her in this field.
Stoute’s Pleaidas might be better than what he has shown in two starts this year, but he becomes increasingly a frustrating sort and is one to avoid today. I did like the way Steal The Scene won over 7f the last time. He looks scopey and needed the fist seasonal outing before. But the trip is a worry today. Purple Rock may still improve and back over a mile with a career lowest mark is certainly interesting.
However the top weight Bartholomew Fair is very hard to oppose in my eyes. I missed the good prices but still think he is too big a price in this field. He was found out for class and stamina in the Derby trial at Lingfield the last time on his seasonal reappearance but one would expect him to come on for it.
Drop back to 1m will suit so should the quick ground. This extremely well bred colt won a Yarmouth maiden last year in very taking fashion and wasn’t disgraced in a subsequent Group race where he ran better than the bare result suggests as he was always wide without cover didn’t help and he didn’t handle Newmarket either.
It’s a dramatic drop in class today, he takes on potentially inferior opposition and of a mark off 90 he should have no problems to come on out on top. I liked his athletic looks, he seemed to have improved physically too, and if he can find to anything of the class he showed in his maiden win and to what his pedigree is pointing to, he’ll be hard to beat today.
Hard to know what to expect from some individuals in this race,, nonetheless I find it rather easy to narrow the field down to four, five contenders.
I’m most intruded by the Richard Hannon trained Sirheed on his three year old debut, though. He has been gelded over the winter which could help him to be mentally more ready for the job. This Rip Van Winkle son cost a bit of money as a yearling and is pretty well bred, related to a good family.
He looks the type likely to improve with age and should be able to leave his juvenile form easily behind. That says he appeared well framed and scopey last year. I like his performance when last seen at Kempton over 1m. He showed early gate speed, made all and looked the winner entering the final furlong. He tired late and got caught in the final fifty yards.
The drop in trip looks a good thing judged on that effort. There is speed on his dam line and it’s interesting that Dettori makes his way to Salisbury for this one ride only. One would suggest Sirheed is race fit today.
A 19 runner strong Handicap – of course it is ultra competitive! That says I do really struggle to see anything obvious and believe this is as open as it gets. A massive upset wouldn’t be a surprise. If I’d have to tip the likeliest winner it’d be Jakey, who has the right credentials to go close.
But there is better value to find in this field: 40/1 long-shot Pack Leader is the one I have my eyes on. Yes, he’s even a long-shot in my book, though probably more like a 20/1 chance. I felt he improved physically from three to four, evident on his seasonal reappearance at Kempton last month. He looked rusty and not very sharp that day, however big and strong, and should come on for the run.
Pack Leader has already form at Epsom, when third here last year. He also proved stamina over 12 furlongs in the past, when runner-up at Salisbury in a Handicap off his current mark. His strike rate is worrying, he won only single race to date – though in fairness that was a very good maiden at Goodwood last June – this form works out really well, indeed!
I can see him able to outrun his price given that track and trip should suit perfectly plus the possibility of improvement from his seasonal debut run.
Big surprise in the Oaks today – 50/1 shocker Qualify got up to deny Legatissimo the Guinas & Oaks double. That says, if you would have been brave enough, you could have got easily 100/1 for the winner this morning…. I didn’t, that is for sure, completely dismissed this filly. I got it wrong. But it helps to know that most got it wrong.
My filly Together Forever had not too many excuses. Up with the pace, which wasn’t a strong one, she got bumped 2f out, but I felt she was already out of it at that point anyway. Lady Of Dubai finished a fine third. I’m somewhat happy she didn’t win. I was very fond of her beforehand was slapping my face this morning when I saw the money pouring in for her, knowing I left 14/1 on the table the night before
Anyway, that’s the Oaks. History now. Let’s concentrate on what’s in front of us: The Derby!
4.30 Epsom: English Derby, Group 1, 1m 4f 10y
Golden Horn: Favourite, impressive winner of the Dante Stakes. as the key trial. I marked him as one to follow in my Horses To Follow article. Hard to oppose on form but question mark is the trip. I have him down as a 10f horse, though he might be able to stretch out to the Derby distance. Whether he stays the trip is not really the question, though, it’s more whether he’s able to stay it in a way that enables him to beat horses who are certain to get it.
Jack Hobbs: Runaway winner of a Sandown Handicap. Proved his class in Dante with good runner-up effort. Clearly not yet the finished article and fair chance to stay the trip. That says his dam hasn’t produced a winner over 12f yet. Likely to improve again but has to do so if he wants to go close.
Elm Park: Racingpost Trophy winner. Didn’t do anything wrong when third in Dante on seasonal reappearance. He’ll come on for that and I expect him to finish much closer to Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs this time. He clearly stays, will get the trip, but has to prove he can be top class on better ground. However if there is anything soft in the ground come 4.30 Saturday afternoon he must have a prime chance.
Giovanni Canaletto: Another one from my Horses To Follow list. Lightly raced, this lack of experience may count against him. But he looked smart when winning a minor race as a juvenile and his comeback run a fortnight ago was promising the way he finished from a poor position. He’s a full-brother to 2013 Derby winner Ruler Of The World and should improve for the trip. Like his big brother, he’s fitted with cheep-pieces for the Derby.
Epicuris: Group 1 winner in heavy conditions as a juvenile. Form doesn’t really work out, and not too exciting on seasonal reappearance when only 2nd in Group 3. Known for his problems in the preliminaries of a race and unclear if he can be fully effective on better ground.
Hans Holbein: Lightly raced Chester Vase winner. Probably needs soft ground and more of a Leger type. Big question mark whether he’s quick enough to win the Derby.
Kilimanjaro: Witnessed with my own eyes when this lad got the mark in a Dundalk maiden back in April. Won the Derby Trial at Lingfield since then. Fair type but I find it hard to see him good enough to win a Derby.
Moheet: Looked exciting as a juvenile but hasn’t fulfilled promise in couple of starts this year. He may improve with time and experience but the Derby distance looks very ambitious.
Storm The Stars: One of the more experienced individuals, yet he looked still a big baby in his races. Took him a while to get off the mark but clearly progressing and the trip is in his blood. Might be up with the pace and wouldn’t mind making all if needed. Very dangerous if allowed an easy lead.
Success Days: Progressive and impressive in Ireland this year. Likely needs it soft to be seen to best effect and very dubious stayer on pedigree.
Rogue Runner: German raider who won two minor races in his native country. May improve for the step up to Derby trip but very hard to see him good enough to land a blow.
Carbon Dating: Still a maiden, big chance to finish last.
Verdict: Ground seems key. If there are any soft patches in the ground I believe Elm Park must go really close. But with the ground probably drying out over night, I feel there are others races later the year which are likely to suit better. Golden Horn is top class and will go close if he truly gets the trip. But given his very short price is easily opposable.
I admit I’m not getting warm with Jack Hobbs and don’t see why he is shorter than a couple of others. He’s a good horse and may even develop into top class, but for now I have Elm Park higher in the packing order.
However it’s clearly Giovanni Canaletto who gets the nod from me. I have a 16/1 ante-post bet on him, but he’s still a 9/1 chance, which strikes me as too big – therefore I nominate him as my selection for the Derby. He’s clearly classy, has the right credentials on pedigree and first time headgear should help to settle and focus when it matters.
The final race on Doncaster’s card is all but exciting. But “tracker horse” Oracolo has an entry and I’m inclined to give him a second chance. I was already keen on the son of Cape Cross when he made his seasonal debut at Newmarket last month, but that seemed more like a public gallop for the four year old, in order to blow the cobwebs away.
Oracolo appeals as the type likely to improve with age and experience, so the Newmarket outing may have done him the world of good. Still a lightly raced gelding, last year he needed three attempts to get off the mark, finished third in a good Redcar maiden and then went on to win at Wolverhampton in what was quite a decent race.
It’ll be only his second start in Handicap company here at Doncaster, over a trip and fast ground likely to suit perfectly on pedigree. He also has also been gelded over the winter, which sometimes needs a run or two to really make an impact.
In a nutshell: I think in this underwhelming field Oracolo has a prime chance to go really close off a pretty fair mark.
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