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Betting

Monday Selections: 1st April 2024

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It was amazing to cheer home Stag Night at Cork on Saturday. A second winner for the month, for the season, for the year… small sample size, but 30pts up moving into April, I’ll take that.

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5.00 Fairyhouse: Irish Grand National, 3m 5f

Lightly raced and progressive Nick Rockett appears to be a rock solid favourite. Able to run off 146 he could easily be a good deal better than this current handicapper assessment.

He impressed in his three starts over fences this year in hot enough company. Only five lengths behind Corbetts Cross in December, and an excellent runner- up behind American Mike in February when he stepped up to 3 miles under rules for the first time.

Trained by Willie Mullins, one has to take that into account, but the price is skinny enough. There are reasons to take this 7-year old on: evidently he isn’t the biggest horse and with that in mind a 21-runner big National is a new experience.

An uncompetitive maiden hurdle at Naas isn’t quite the same as the Irish Grand National, especially as there should be a lot of action toward the front of the pack today.

Going 3m 5f is a first, too. Nick Rockett won a Point to Point over 3 miles, that gives hope but doesn’t provide a guarantee, especially if the race is fast on this heavy ground.

There are two I’m interested in against this favourite: one is stable mate We’llhavewan, who’s also surprisingly low mileage over fences and potentially on a really good mark compared to his hurdles rating.

He ran a fine race when second in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown, when effectively 5lb wrong due to being out the handicap and Townend weighing in over.

I thought it was impressive how he surged from over 4 furlongs out, making a big bold move after jumping the second last and seemed briefly to have a lead that’ll last for a win. That big move cost him dearly in the end, though, as he was reeled in an finished a tired 2nd.

He hasn’t been seen often jumping a fence since winning on his chasing debut in summer 2022, but had excuses afterwards. His jumping was pretty assured at Punchestown, though.

We’llhavewan had a light campaign, won well over hurdles and looks favourably weighted here at the bottom of the field with valuable 5lb claimed by Kieran Callaghan. Whether he’ll truly stays the trip we’ll find out later.

The other one I’m interested in is Favori De Champdou. He’s a decent hurdler but already looks a better chase, and no surprise given his connections.

He’s low mileage for a 9-year-old and was quite impressive when he won the Florida Pearl at Punchestown early in the season. He bombed out the last two and requires a bit of faith that he’s back to the previous form.

Still, only 4 runs over fences, there’s possibly more to come. This is the game he’s been bought for. If you can forgive him those last two runs, he looks like an exciting Novice Chaser.

Conditions should suit and he had a small break. A return to a right-handed track can also suit. He ran to a 151 RPR at Punchestown, if he can get back to that form and show any improvement, he’ll be right in the mix off 145.

5pts win – Favori De Champdou @ 19/1
5pts win – We’llhavewan @ 11.5/1

……

1.40 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

Richard Hannon has his string in strong order, hence returning Major Major makes some appeal, if he’s ready to go in a weak enough race that could fall into his lap.

There shouldn’t be too much pace on, so he could either move forward and make all, or follow closely whoever else is doing the donkey work for him.

The 4-year-old gelding improved nicely over these longer trips last season and his last two performances warranted an upgrade in competitive Handicaps.

He’s unexposed on the All-Weather and could improve for this surface given his breeding and family on the dam side all done well on the sand. His final start in 2023 at Lingfield’s polytrack was eyecatching, and if he can translate this form to tapeta he’ll be a strong chance today.

A mark off 68 could underestimate him. Certainly in conditions and pace likely in his favour today, with excellent 5lb claiming Alec Voikhansky in the saddle.

He achieved a 65 speed rating on turf last season. He should be able to run to this level, perhaps even better on All-Weather too. He looks a good win ahead of his mark.

10pts win – Major Major @ 13/2

Betting

Saturday Selections: 30th March 2024

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Super run by Misty Grey yesterday in the competitive All-Weather Sprint Handicap at Newcastle. He finished a gallant 2nd.

Ultimately beaten beaten by a stronger winner from off the pace. Nonetheless, a huge run given his 16/1 price and can’t ask for more.

Unfortunately Shoot To Kill missed the break and had a mountain to climb there and then – too much, but most likely he wouldn’t have had a chance with the impressive Cephalus in any case. Tempus run as the price suggested, sadly. Tracked the pace but wasn’t good enough on the day.

…….

4.40 Cork: Handicap, 5f

I have been weighing up all last night and this morning whether to get involved in this race. It’s competitive. Unexposed Goal Exceeded is potentially the “x-factor”, hard to gauge but possibly well-handicapped.

Two Stars and Stag Night meet once again after they locked horns a fortnight ago and also at the Curragh in their respective final runs last season.

Two Stars the likely pace angle in the race, this is where the pace will develop. That’s a positive for Stag Night, but also lightly raced Goal Exceeded.

I’m questioning whether this is the right trip for Goal Exceeded, though. Perhaps an additional furlong is much more likely to see him to best effect, for that he could be well-handicapped today on Handicap debut.

Nonetheless, as a 3-year-old against some seasoned sprinters, on deep ground, appears quite a stiff task, and with that in mind I find his price too short.

Two Stars remains quite unexposed, too, and has shown excellent early speed in all his runs since a slow start in his debut run. He ran to 82 on speed ratings in his final race last year at the Curragh. The handicapper has been lenient to leave his mark untouched after that as well as the recent third placed effort.

He’s an obvious chance today, but quite a short price, and may face some competition for the pace as well.

This his is competitive and the likes of Never Shout Never, mud lover Mickey The Steel, dangerously well-handicap Mehman or the mare Magical Vision can’t be ruled out.

What gets me always back to Stag Night is the fact this should turn today into a a testing enough 5 furlongs, with a couple in the field likely to keep Two Stars honest up front, which will be a huge help to his chances.

Stag night is still low mileage for a 6-year-old, he had issues with his feet, reportedly. Nonetheless, last season in his final two runs on deep ground over 5- and 6f he was able to produce significantly improvement performances.

An 84 speed rating for his Naas win, bettered by a 91 speed rating when a super 3rd in a tight finish at the Curragh. He clearly was well when he returned at the Curragh earlier this months too, as he looked good in the parade ring where I saw him prior to the race in flesh.

He ran really well and “won” the race on his side, but couldn’t live with the turn of foot of the eventual winner, who made a move away from the pace, though, and was possibly seen too late as well.

Stag Night is up a pound for the run, but intriguingly has the assistance of young apprentice Danny Power, who claims invaluable 10lbs. This is only his second ride under rules.

The young apprentice looked quite comfortable on his sole ride at Dundalk, though. I think this weight allowance can only be a help for Stag Night in the deep ground. He is an uncomplicated sort. Just ride him, push him out, and given he only has to follow the lead of Two Stars, who’s drawn right beside, this shouldn’t be too tricky.

Given the price has gone to a point where I feel comfortable to get involved in this competitive race, I’ll have the bet on Stag Night. Ideally he’d go up to 6 furlongs, I feel. But at around 5/1 now he’s more than a point bigger than I’d have him.

10pts win – Stag Night @ 5/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 29th March 2024

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It’s already a few days ago, but hey, you’ve got to celebrate the winners. It was the first one I could cheer home in a while – granted I had about a handful of bets in the last half year.

Anyway, it was great to see Qitaal win rather comfortably in the end, despite a dramatic drift to 14/1 SP. I was stuck with my 7’s, but that’s no issue at all. Even that represented significant value in my book.

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2.40 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Cephalus looks a seriously poor favourite in this race at such a short price (2/1 at time of writing). He’ll be held up from the #10 draw in a race without much pace and he’s got a bit to find on speed ratings as he’s turned out under a penalty.

The 5-year old improved dramatically over the last weeks and months, winning four and going close twice. This is a different proposition, though, especially off 81 in a race that won’t be run to suit him.

The way the race is likely going to shape, and with his love for the track, Shoot To Kill looks one who may steel this one from the front for Ireland and represents serious value in my mind.

He moved over to Ado McGuinness in early March and ran with plenty of courage in two subsequent starts, both times catching the eye and clearly proving there’s plenty of life in the seven-year-old gelding.

Those were hard races and that’s a bit of a concern. But at the same they may have put him right for this race. He was highly competitive and consistent prior moving to Ireland as well.

Shoot To Kill certainly loves it here at Lingfield. Check out his course record, peel back the first layer and you’ll find a lad who’s ran some huge performances from 7-10 furlongs at this venue not too long ago.

No doubt, his optimum is a mile over this course and distance, though. He won a class 5 Handicap over this CD back in September off 74, running to a 75 speed rating which he franked weeks later over 7 furlongs at the same venue when finishing a strong third.

That mile win looks better than bare form would suggest, given it was only a class 5. His current mark – 78 – with a 3lb claimer in the saddle, gives him a shout over this course and distance, though.

He won a class 3 Handicaps in the past here, and ran his three career-best speed ratings at Lingfield, the two highest over a mile. Taking into account that he looks to hit some good form, it’s not impossible to think he’s able to run to that sort of level again.

But maybe he doesn’t even have to be that good on Friday. The pace should favour those who are ridden forward and it’s unlikely to be overly hot.

Given that, Shoot To Kill should be easily able to overcome the #7 draw and should find himself in prime position as he slings around the final bend.

Shoot To Kill 10pts win – @ 13/1

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3.35 Newcastle: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Not out of question that Cover Up, who’s bidding for a four-timer, can pull out more, even after a hefty 13lb hike for his most recent win at this venue, albeit over the minimum trip.

Though, moving up in trip is a question mark. The dam stayed a mile but her sole victory came over 5 furlongs. He ran a super 90 speed rating last time out. On balance, given he could get a nice lead into the finish as well given his draw and the likely pace, he’s a fair favourite – one that’s beatable, at the same time.

Batal Dubai looks well places from his #9 draw and given there isn’t too much pace competition, could enjoy the run of the race. He’s fairly handicapped, although hardly has much in hand. He always struggled so far to win once he hit the 90s.

Albasheer’s last two winning performances here at Newcastle were brilliant on speed ratings: 102 and 100 – that’s a Group horse. A 110 mark in this type of competitive handicap is also quite a steep task.

He looks well drawn and looks slightly overpriced. I have some question marks because that last huge effort only came a fortnight ago.

The one I feel who’s potentially quite well-handicapped in the context of this race is 7-year-old gelding Misty Grey.

The #5 draw gives him enough options to get a good, prominent position early on, tracking the pace, wherever it develops, given he has a bit of early speed as well.

He clearly showed a return to form in two runs earlier this month after he moved to the David O’Meara yard. The second of those runs came on the 9th of March, hence that hopefully is enough time to recover.

I felt both runs were eyecatching and warranted a slight upgrade, as much as they also suggested a mark off 96 might underestimate him at this point in his career.

At Wolverhampton in a 7f Listed race last time out Misty Grey had to give weight away to higher rated horses and it wasn’t ideal to concede first run to the eventual winner at 2f out, at the most crucial part of that race.

Days earlier at Newcastle, again over 7f, he pulled hard early on and basically tanked his way to the front. He travelled sweetly for a long time before coming under pressure and possibly also got ever so slightly impacted by a faller around the final furlong marker.

Both runs suggested he could do with a drop to stiff 6f…. hello Newcastle I hear you calling? This is his third run since a break and since moving to the David O’Meara yard and he should be primed what will only bis his second run over 6f in over a year – the last time he finished an excellent third in a hot Kempton Conditions race.

The grey gelding wasn’t rated so lowly in over three years, and as explained before, there is solid evidence based on the last two runs, that he’s hitting some strong form. At given prices he seems quite a bit overpriced.

Misty Grey – 10pts win @ 16/1

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4.40 Newcastle: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

It’s difficult not to like how Dear My Friend won his last three races since his return as a gelding and from wind operation. A changed horse, so to speak.

Four from four on the All-Weather now, and there s every chance he’s got still much more to offer. For all that he has to prove his lofty rating on speed ratings yet.

He may not have to do so here, as the pace falls right into his lap, if he wants it. He’s also a pretty fair price, at 7/2 currently, very much one I’d consider to back.

However, from a value perspective I just can’t look past Tempus. He’s not getting any younger and was beaten by My Dear Friend back in January. However the race and certainly pace scenario will play out differently this time, and so is the weights difference between the two.

Tempus is also drawn close to My Dear Friend, and may well track him all the way from his #2 draw. Usually also forward, he should equally enjoy the run of the race.

The handicapper has given him an opportunity as well. Dropped him to 102, despite three notable performances this year. He’s not been that low since winning a competitive Ascot Handicap in July 2022.

There is no question that Tempus remains in strong form, though, because he ran a joint career-best (and best on AW) speed rating at Kempton in January on his comeback run. He missed the break that day but finished very strongly as he kicked on nicely from 3f out in a good listed contest.

He fared best from those up with the pace subsequently at Newcastle when he was beaten by My Dear Friend eventually. Another strong performance. And was then a bit too keen when locked in a pace battle in a Listed race at Cagnes last month, where he was still ahead with only 1.5f to go, though.

I feel from a handicapping perspective and pace scenario Tempus got a significant chance to outrun his big price tag here.

10pts win – Tempus @ 23/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 24th March 2024

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“Mr Professor off 92 could be dangerous. He’ll love this ground and the likely fast pace. He’s one of the bigger prices that Intrigues me.”

It’s what I wrote in my Lincoln preview and still didn’t back him, as Mr Professor ran away with the Lincoln at Doncaster.

My selection Blues Emperor was up with the pace but wasn’t advantaged by the direction of the wind, I think. He finished down the field. Think he remains one to keep any eye on.

I can live with it. It was a big price, I’d back him again at those odds, no doubt. I’m more annoyed with myself with those two seriously poor Friday selections. Anyway, move on, and let’s find a winner today….

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3.40 Doncaster: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f

Intriguing contest because there is very little obvious pace in this race and because the betting is doing some funny things throughout this morning.

Last years winner of this very same race, Bucephalus, is one who can track a pace, and comes here in good form, off only 5lb higher than for that comfortable win twelve months ago.

Despite a prominent mentioning from Hugh Taylor, I don’t like him from a speed rating perspective and I am happy to go against him.

I feel those close to the top of the market are nothing more than fairly priced. Stressfree is unexposed and loves this ground and trip. He could be well placed, but has to prove he can do it in this class. Speed ratings leave a lot to be desired, for now.

Ensued ran well on the All-Weather since his return from Hong Kong. His speed rating suggest he’s normally not up to this class and an 80 mark is stiff enough.

The “x-factor” in this race clearly is Qitaal. He was badly on the drift this morning, but has been backed in again. Hence I jumped on board because he’s possibly the only runner in the field truly comfortable to lead.

The 5-year-old is also talented, seriously lightly raced for his age, and on a dangerous 77 handicap mark IF healthy.

He did well for Mark Johnston as a juvenile and fetched £220k at the horses in training sale back then. Things didn’t work out in Ireland where was seen only once in Listed class for Ken Condon.

Gelded since then, not seen ever since, now back with the Johnston’s in their ownership as well, it’s intriguing to see what Qitaal can do. It’s not unusual for Johnston horses setting the pace – no better man on board today than Joe Fanning too.

I’m sure they revert to front-running tactics as he did when landing a decent maiden at Nottingham, back in October 2021.

He has shown to handle soft ground as a 2-year-old. If ready to go, and the money suggests he is, I think there is every chance he’s way too well-handicapped in this field, especially if allowed a soft lead.

There’s every chance he’s never going to be horse he promised to be years ago, also. I’ll take the gamble today, given this race looks so open, especially at the price (seems like loads of money coming quickly, not sure how long the 6-7s hold) where the pace could be seriously muddy, this feels like a no-brainer to me.

10pts win – Qitaal @ 7/1 (SM, MB)

Betting

Lincoln Preview

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3.35 Doncaster: Lincoln Handicap, 1m

The addition of Chazzesmee adds significant intrigue to the race. He won the Irish Lincoln in brilliant style on Monday, and looked like a horse with a bit in hand.

He confirmed the promise from last season, especially when last seen back in July in a hot Premier Handicap at the Curragh where he was arguably unlucky not to get closer to the eventual winner, or in fact even win.

A 5lb penalty looks generous, given once the official handicapper takes his chance to reassess, it should be quite a bit more than that for this ever improving gelding.

He looks drawn possibly quite well – certainly more favourable, I believe, than current favourite Liberty Lane. The lower toward the middle numbers may well be favoured according how I read the pace map feel this race could develop from a pace perspective.

Chazzesmee may well be towed into the finish where he will enjoy the likely fast pace and showcase his ability to change gear even on this deeper groun.

The thing that puts me off him, beside the price that’s too short for me in such a competitive race, is the fact that he’s always enjoyed frequent breaks between his races. Back to back races in such short space of time is unchartered territory. Not a risk worth taking at 4/1 in my mind.

I quite like Liberty Lane. An unexposed but progressive handicapper. He could definitely improve for having been gelded. One can forgive the final run in 2023. Before that he achieved a career-best landing a good Doncaster Handicap, including a strong 92 speed rating.

At 9/2 one can make an argument that he’s even a fair price. But the draw is not ideal, I feel. Drawn in #20, he may not be ideally positioned in the closing stages or has to do a lot in the early stages to avoid getting trapped wide.

2022 winner Johan goes extremely well fresh. He won another valuable Handicap after a break last season, and is a key contender, although he must defy a 106 mark, which is not easy in such a competitive renewal of the Lincoln.

Mr Professor off 92 could be dangerous. He’ll love this ground and the likely fast pace. He’s one of the bigger prices that Intrigues me.

But the one I’m most interested in at what I feel appear quite generous prices around 20/1 on the exchanges, is for the Johnny Murtagh horse Blues Emperor.

Probably not the most talented individual in the field I think off 97 this improving gelding may have a bit more to offer, though.

He improved with nearly every run in 2023 – the only truly poor showing came in his final outing in 2023, at the end of a tough campaign, which was also Listed race at quirky Listowel, and quite odd the way it panned out.

Prior to that he finished a neck beaten runner-up in the Irish Cambridgeshire, ran with plenty of credit in a hot Galway Handicap, won on Irish Derby Day a competitive Premier Handicap and defied top-weight at Naas.

The 5-year-old gelding clearly acts on soft ground. He stays a mile. Although, the combination of a fast pace and deep ground will stretch his stamina to the limit.

On the other hand, his #10 draw offers every opportunity to be in a good spot, closer to the front of the pack. I suspect it might be difficult to come from off the pace here. He likes to lead but has shown that he can track a pace closely as well.

In any case Blues Emperor is a genuine horse with a great attitude. He’ll put his head down and will run his race more likely than not. That may or may not be good enough. But you’d think Johnny Murtagh will have the horse ready to go, given Blues Emperor also performed well as a fresh horse in the past.

10pts win – Blues Emperor @ 20/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 22nd March 2024

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7.15 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

I’m more than happy to take on Glamourous Express who’s turned out under a penalty here after an impressive victory at Kempton last week.

Hugh Taylor seems sweet on this lad, and that’s something to be taken seriously. But off 67 today, over 6f, he’s vulnerable. He’s never ran a significant speed rating beyond the minimum trip to suggest he’s well-handicapped in these conditions.

Captain Vallo could be interesting if there’s a generous pace today. But better days may await for such scenario. Water Of Leith is one to fear in this grade. But at current prices I’ll take a punt on Dream Together off bottom weight.

This is his third run since coming back from a long enough break. He ran better than bare forms suggest in his two starts since then and showed a solid attitude, suggesting there’s life.

The pace scenario will suit today. He should be able to to just sit off The Gay Blade and hopefully can kick on from about 2f out. I can see a scenario play out where he could be hard to beg back with his low weight if he can get separation from the main pack.

Dream Together’s All-Weather record is poor. However, he ran 51 and 54 speed ratings last year over this course and distance. He’s allowed to run off 51 now, a career-lowest mark on sand.

That gives him every chance to outrun his price tag today, at the very least. He should be well placed when it matters most.

10pts win – Dream Together @ 10.5/1

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7.30 Dundalk: Handicap, 1m

Intriguing and rather competitive race. A bunch of these met a over the last weeks, hence plenty of collateral form exist, for what it’s worth.

I think not too many will be in this to win tonight, though. Shoot To Kill ran with plenty of promise on his debut for the McGuinness yard. He may find an easier race soon, is my feeling.

Rampage looks in good form and his finish here two weeks ago was noteworthy. He has a tough Irish Lincoln run in his legs, though.

Rockbury Lad impressed visually and on the clock over this CD two weeks ago. Betting suggests today isn’t his day.

Skontonovski will be in the mix, but doesn’t appear overly well-handicapped. Neither – certainly not over this trip -looks favourite Exquisite Acclaim, who is in strong form, but has to defy a high enough handicap mark as a result.

The standout for me in this field is the aptly named Not Forgotten. He caught the eye a number of the times this winter on the Dundalk polytrack.

He remains on the same 79 mark after a strong 3rd place effort two weeks ago over this course and distance.

As often before, he wasn’t the sharpest away from the gate but made rapid progress soon after, and that may cost on the day vital fuel that was missing in the final furlong.

The 4-year-old travelled notably well, though, and made smooth progress from 4f out. If only he could get out of the gates a tiny bit better and perhaps keep his focus in the closing stages.

Good news, the visor is on. That appears the right move and could help him to find the necessary couple of pounds improvement tonight. He’s generally still low enough mileage in handicaps to hope for a little bit better.

Off a 79 handicap mark there is plenty of room for one or two more wins in him, given his profile.

10pts win – Not Forgotten @ 4/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 11th November 2023

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Bit of an unlucky spell right now. Haworth Star beaten in a photo. Probably was ahead right behind the line. Bunch of good runs for my selections lately, half of them placed, but no wins to show. Agonising.

Especially when you leave some unbacked that turn out to win…. the normal ups and downs of betting, I guess. A winner would be nice, though.

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6.30 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

A weak contest and a weak favourite. I can’t have Cavalluccio in this race at all. Even though he seems to go better after a wind op, he still has to find something on speed ratings and isn’t exactly unexposed after 21 runs.

In contrast, I love the look of Blue Yonder dropping down to class 6, with the visor added, from a good draw, in a race with little pace to fight off in the early stages.

The gelding ran with plenty of credit this season, and his last two runs confirmed he’s back to his best, in my view.

He finished 9/12 last time at Newcastle but travelled well for most of the race in a competitive affair where, perhaps, things didn’t quite work out with the way the race ultimately developed. It was a better performance than the bare form suggested, though.

Prior at Wolverhampton he was only beaten in a tight finish, where the ride he received versus the rider the winner received made all the difference. With that in mind, off the same mark today, he is well-handicapped in my view.

That’s without taking into consideration a better jockey booking today and a pace scenario that will ensure Blue Yonder can move forward and be in the right spot throughout the race, which will surely be up with the pace.

He won twice earlier this year, up to 10 furlongs on soft turf. So the trip isn’t an issue. He also won on the sand over 9.5 at Wolverhampton, and was subsequently only a neck beaten at Weatherby off 69 where he achieved a 72 speed rating.

Blue Yonder seems equally as effective on sand as on turf, and that’s in line with the observation that a mark of 67 is probably lenient as this point in time.

10pts win – Blue Yonder @ 15/2

Betting

Thursday Selections: 9th November 2023

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8.00 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Crystal Dawn looks seriously well-handicapped in this poor field today as she drops in class and drops down to her most recent winning mark after a seriously noteworthy lto run.

A fortnight ago at Wolverhampton the mare wasn’t the sharpest at the start and subsequently wasn’t helped by a mad keen rival who kept her on the outside.

As a consequence she travelled wide throughout the race, although seemingly going strongly approaching the home turn. The jockey made zero attempts to actually improve position, though, and started riding when it was way too late.

She wasn’t expected in the betting on the day at all. So no surprise to see her finish the way she did. However, she did ran a number of solid races this year, suggesting there’s some mileage left.

Crystal Dawn is now down to a 53 rating, the same she won off last September over this course and distance, and subsequently off 3lb higher at Wolverhampton as well.

The help of a solid 7lb claimer is an added bonus today. Without a doubt she’s a real standout chance here in this poor 0-52 contest, a much easier race than the one she contest the last two times.

Cheek pieces are added and help, hopefully, with sharpness out of the gate, with the aim to utilise the #3 draw to best effect.

10pts win – Crystal Dawn  @ 7/2

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 8th November 2023

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4.20 Dundalk: Handicap, 1m

Garrick Painter goes back over a mile after two highly encouraging efforts at Dundalk since he moved to Ireland.

He’s been claimed last month on the back of a strong effort over 10 furlongs. From a wide draw he moved quickly forward to get to the front and the stayed for a long time to finish second.

That performance was very much in line with his previous eye-catching run over 7f, on his Dundalk debut. There he utilised a low draw to best effect but also made a lot in front.

He remains still lightly enough raced and these two runs are in line with some of his best efforts, as he ran to 72 and 79 speed ratings last year in the UK on the All-Weather.

Todays looks an ideal scenario, if new connections want to win. 1m should be his optimum trip. He’s got a low draw in a race that lacks competition for pace.

This natural front-runner should be able to dominate and get the run of the race, which often is an advantage at Dundalk.

10pts win – Garrick Painter @ 15/2

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8.30 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Competitive little race, but how’s the pace? Not too many obvious front-runners who are sure to move rapidly forward and set a strong pace here.

I feel those from wider draws have a chance. That brings King Of The Jungle into the mix, who was an eyecatcher last time out, but from #12 may find a way to get beat for these connections, hence another day may be more likely to see him run to form.

The one who makes plenty of appeal from the wider drawn horses is Bluebells Boy. He caught the eye twice now in the space of a month at Chelmsford.

Two back it was a massive effort from the widest draw when he only got caught late off his current mark. Last time up in trip, it was a somewhat unfortunate day in the office.

He was a bit awkward soon after the start, keen in the early part of the race when restraint off the pace. His jockey still took a pull 4f out as he travelled notably strongly into the home straight, where he met all sorts of trouble and had no chance.

Bluebells Boy was well-backed the last two times and looks seriously competitive off this mark, especially as he ran to a 56 speed rating back in July this year, and his two recent runs suggest he’s up to that level of performance still.

10pts win – Bluebells Boy @ 7/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 6th November 2023

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1.30 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

A muddling pace scenario could open up this contest. However, there are clearly three standout candidates in this field, who’d fight it out, as they are all drawn well enough to expect them not to be too far off the pace.

Island Of Sky, who ran to consistent speed ratings the last two times that’ll see him go close if he can repeat that level of performance with new headgear added.

Curtiz is down to a seriously dangerous mark, having shown glimpses of form when last seen after a long absence. He’ll improve for the run.

The one I can’t leave unbacked, though, is Wake Up Harry – not at these prices. There’s a risk attached given he’s a bit on the drift this morning. Maybe the brakes are slammed once more…. but if not, he should run away with this, I firmly believe.

Down to 0-62 level, a 59 handicap mark, and a seriously strong lto run in the book, Wake Up Harry looks ripe to let lose off a #1 draw to run this field into oblivion.

He’s one who caught the eye last winter, but missed to win. However, last time out over the same course and distance, he caught the eye in no uncertain terms.

A wider than ideal draw didn’t help early on, with indecision by the jockey coming at a cost for travelling widest, before moving forward and taking up the lead around the bend.

Obviously he made too much too soon, using vital energy in the first half of the race, hence it wasn’t a surprise to see him fade away rapidly in the home straight.

One could argue Wake Up Harry never convinced fully on sand. However, he remains lightly enough especially over the mile trip, where spots a 6-1-3 record on the All-Weather.

There’s a danger that he’s beaten for speed today. He may want a little bit further. On the other hand, the draw provides every opportunity to make most of the likely lack of pace, and he can simple move forward and could be hard to catch.

10pts win – Wake Up Harry @ 6/1