All posts by Florian Christoph

Photographer & Runner - lives in the land of rain.
United Kingdom

York: Dark Defender takes all the beating

Leave a comment

DSC_0177

2.00 York: Class 4 Nursery, 7f

These kind of races are tough to work out sometimes, but I can’t help feeling that Dark Defender has an exceptional chance to win this race, given that he is one of few who has proven his worthiness of his current mark. He won a pretty deep 6f sprint here at York earlier the season but didn’t enjoy and luck in his two subsequent starts.

He is however one who steps up in trip now and who should on pedigree very much enjoy seven furlongs. There is good chance that the new trip brings out more improvement, and if that is the case indeed, he’ll be very hard to beat here.

Dark Defender @ 4/1 Paddy Power – 10pts Win

United Kingdom

Sunday Selections – York

Leave a comment

Newmarket July Course

2.30 York: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Two three year old fillies stand out in this field: Distain is the first one. She didn’t quite stay the 1m 5f trip at Chester the last time, but now dropped back to 10f she could be a real force. I was impressed with her change of gear when getting off the mark at Redcar in a maiden on only her second start. 10f here at flat York in a big handicap with a hot pace, she could be ideally suited and better than her current rating off 80.

Bottom weight Pamushana is equally one who could have easily more to offer. She is on a potentially very lenient mark after following up on an ultra impressive maiden success with a strong 3rd place in a better class at Nottingham last month. She looks big and scopey, apparently progressing well this season and wit handy weight and draw a big chance in this race.

Pamushana @ 8/1 Betfred – 5pts Win
Distain @ 10/1 Coral – 5pts Win

———

5.10 York: Class 4 Apprentice Handicap, 1m 4f

His most recent Newmarket performance was too bad to be true, so one may forgive Endless Credit that poor run and better judge him on his excellent runner-up performances before. If he could run to that sort of form, he’ll be in with a big chance, given that he has the perfect draw for his positive running style.

A mark off 69 seems high enough, though; yet seen in the contest of the jockey booking, seems less of a problem. Young Fitzpatrick claims valuable 5lb and is very much worth every single pound. He’s riding out of his skin at the moment and is clearly a talented young jockey – that’s a bonus in this type of race.

Endless Credit @ 14/1 VC – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Preview – Haydock Sprint Cup

Leave a comment

Twilight Son

3.45 Haydock: Sprint Cup (Group 1), 6f

The Sprint Cup is a wide open renewal this year, despite the fact that the last two winner give it another go. The slight ease in the ground may indeed help G Force to find back to something close of his best, but he has been so utterly disappointing this year – it’s hard to fancy him. Gordon Lord Byron is the consistent force he’s ever been. On form he is in with a very fair shout – he’ll be in the shake-up surely but hardly an attractive price.

Adaay is the obvious favourite, though. The three year old has top class form to offer and will relish the conditions. He’s the one to beat. But the most intriguing contender in this field, even more so while being slightly unappreciated in the betting, is scopey Twilight Son.

Unbeaten in four starts, albeit never tested beyond Handicap company, he has made a big impression in his two starts this season, when running out impressive successes at Newmarket and York. Obviously this here is a massive step up in class, however he looks a pattern winner in the making. He has a big, scopey frame; is progressing with each run and it’s fair to assume that we haven’t seen the best of him yet.

Twilight Son is pretty ground independent, but potentially will appreciate the drying ground at Haydock. Come race time, there might not be too much soft in the turf any more. He is drawn in five which in theory gives jockey Fergus Sweeney plenty of options.

Twilight Son @ 10/1 VC – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Saturday Selections: Kempton & Haydock

Leave a comment

DSC_2242

2.00 Haydock: Superior Mile (Group 3), 1m

I feel Fanciful Angel is underestimated in this field. The grey colt has been progressive all season, when he won a good listed event at Lingfield’s All-Weather earlier the year, went on to finish a fine runner-up in the German Guineas behind a smart winner, while not quite suited by the drop in trip at Royal Ascot, where he also didn’t encounter a clear passage but finished strongly.

Back over a mile, with the ground conditions not a big worry, he deserves a chance in a field where many have to answer questions. It’s not unlikely that he has still more to offer, and any improvement will see him go very close.

Fanciful Angel @ 11/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

———-

2.20 Kempton: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

With an excellent 7lb claimer in the saddle, Secret Art makes plenty of appeal in this wide open race. He was an excellent runner-up in the same event last season off the same mark, but has a kinder draw today and the weight allowance in hand, which must give him a prime chance. He has fine form this year on offer, although the last two on turf where poor showings.

Back on the Kempton All-Weather, with conditions very much to suit, he could go really close from a prominent position, possibly in an attempt to make all.

Secret Art @ 18/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

———-

5.30 Haydock: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 6f

This marathon trip will not suit too many in this field I feel but certainly should see Galileo colt Soluble making a bit step forward. He hasn’t been exactly progressive over shorter trips, since winning a 9.5f maiden at Wolverhampton on his debut, albeit he has been ultra consistent an ran to his mark.

He usually stays on strongly in the final third of the race, once off the bridle and beaten for speed by others. This as well as his pedigree suggest he’ll appreciate the step up in trip.

Soluble @ 10/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

United Kingdom
Leave a comment

Iron Major Dundalk

5.15 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Hard to look beyond progressive Commodore here. He was quite unlucky not to finish closer the last time over course and distance when a fine runner-up after overcoming the widest draw and a tactical disadvantage.

He wasn’t at his best at Newmarket when he probably didn’t quite handle the track either but ran a huge race at Sandown in June when second again, a form which works out strongly.

He has the benefit of a much kinder draw here, which should help him to get into a decent position early on. There is not too much to fear here in this field and with his 3yo weight allowance giving him a huge chance.

Commodore @ 7/2 Betfred – 10pts Win

United Kingdom

Friday Bet – Keep In Line Can Go Close

Leave a comment

Twilight Son

3.45 Ascot: Class 3 handicap, 1m 4f

Tight and competitive field, with plenty of horses in with a chance to go close. But I believe Godolphin’s three year old colt Keep In Line is overpriced.

He has still not too much mileage on the clock and room for further improvement. It probably is fair to draw a line through his most recent run at Pontefract, where had to overcome a wide draw, was keen early on, and travelled always wide. He made a big move turning for home five wide but eventually didn’t handle the undulations of the Pontefract home straight at all.

He can race off the same mark again here, which is 4lb higher than his last win which came on his penultimate start at Windsor in softish conditions. So he shouldn’t mind the testing conditions at Ascot. He won with a bit in hand that day, therefore I believe it’s fair to give him another chance now, given that the draw is much kinder and the conditions very much likely to suit.

Keep In Line @ 8/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

South Africa

Vaal: Flag Of France a big price

Leave a comment

DSC_0362

2.20 Vaal: MR 90 Handicap, 1000m

Intriguing contest, though it lost a bit of sparkle due to the non-runners. That’s why Bad Boy Buddy Boy is now clear favourite. Back at this track and on turf he should be a force but has to bounce back from a poor last outing on the All-Weather and has to prove he is up to his current mark.

I feel the value in this race is clearly Flag Of France. Readily available at 6/1, he is a huge price against the favourite given he loves this track and trip and is 2 wins from 4 starts over CD. He has decent form and will love the return to the minimum trip, which will give him every chance to overcome a career highest mark.

Flag Of France @ 6/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Leicester: Mezzotint hard to beat

Leave a comment

Leicester Racecourse

7.55 Leicester: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

You have to be wary of the three year olds in this race, one of them might be able to step up his or her game, but it’s practically impossible to look beyond top weight Mezzotint.

He didn’t have things going right on a couple of occasions lately, but judged on his Newmarket performance last month when only 3l behind Athletic in a hot Handicap, despite having been badly hampered that day, proved he is still up to his mark.

He’s been dropped to a career lowest mark off 78 now while still capable of running up to something in the mid 80’s – he’s also dropped into a much easier race here today. With conditions very much to suit and a CD success to his name, he’s a handful for anyone in this race.

Mezzotint @ 4/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Monday Selections – Brighton

Leave a comment

DSC_0366

4.30 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Improvized deserves one more chance – down to a career lowest mark off 48 with potentially soft conditions very much to suit at her preferred Brighton where he has course and distance form from last year off higher marks – she is clearly one, who judged on her best, will appreciate the rain, and if she could somehow find something of her three year old form, she rates a huge chance in this field.

Improvized @ 12/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

———

5.00 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Multiple CD scorer is back at Brighton and will be one of a few who is sure to relish softish conditions. He won a similar race back in October here off 57 in heavy conditions. While not at his best the last two starts, with conditions to suit and down to a handy mark off 53 plus the useful 5lb claim of a good apprentice in the saddle, he must have a prime chance to go close here, even more so as there seems not much competition for the lead either.

Byrd In Hand @ 8/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Sunday Selections – Brighton

Leave a comment

DSC_2237

3.50 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Likely softish ground is an unknown for most in this field and could be a big issue for any of the three year olds. None of them makes much appeal from a handicapping point of view either, so I feel it’s worth to take a punt on bottom weight Trulee Scrumptious.

The six year old mare won with plenty in hand two starts ago at Newmarket. She has also form on soft ground and stays ten furlongs truly, which is at Brighton, particularly when there is some juice in the ground. She was poor in her last two starts and has to produced a career best – but may well do so with the possibility of getting a soft lead here.

Trulee Scrumptious @ 14/1 Coral – 5pts Win

———-

4.20 Brighton: Class 6 Handica , 1m 4f

The old boy Foxhaven is likely to encounter his preferred conditions tomorrow. 12f with a bit of cut in the ground will slow things down and ensure emphasis is on stamina in the finish. He didn’t have too much racing this season but wasn’t disgraced when last seen in June at Kempton.

He slipped another 2lb down the mark, though. With the 5lb claim of his rider, he could be seriously well handicapped if he can find back to something of his former best. Back in September 2014 he still managed to finish in the money of a mark off 68. So he’s a fair chance to go close in this race.

Foxhaven @ 14/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

———-

5.20 Brighton: Class 5 Apprentice Handicap, 1m

Double Czech should be clear favourite here given that Queen Aggie, who currently heads the market, has never got this trip before and will find it tough to change this in softish confitions. Double Czech, though, will very much appreciate the underfoot conditions, though the trip is borderline at a testing track like Brighton.

However he is down to an excellent mark, 1lb below when he won a mile race at Chepstow earlier this year, plus has the handy 5lb allowance of a good apprentice in the saddle. He should go close.

Double Czech @ 9/2 William Hill – 5pts Win