All posts by Florian Christoph

Photographer & Runner - lives in the land of rain.
United Kingdom

Fontwell: Mile House A Danger Back Hurdling

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Becher's Brook

3.20 Fontwell: Handicap Hurdle (Class 2), 2m 3f

A fairly open race I feel, but someone has to move forward and make the next step to win this. Could it be Mile House? He doesn’t get much love in the betting but feel is too harshly judged on his latest efforts over fences.

The big obstacles didn’t work out for him but a return to hurdling could easily see him back to form. He won a good Class 3 Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f back in July and looked long good the next time in a hot race off a 5lb higher mark. He was up with a quick pace but faded late to finish 3rd eventually.

Todays trip and track should suit down to the grounds though, and still rated 130 he may well be able to progress again now back hurdling given this is only his ninth start over the smaller obstacles. He makes appeal as a big price against the better fancied horses towards the top of the market.

Mile House @ 14/1 VC – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Redcar: Tupi Can Bounce Back at Listed Level

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2.35 Ascot: Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3)

This is a pretty poor renewal given that each and every runner faces allot of question marks. It is hard to put much faith into favourite Romsdal, who is on past form the one to beat, but after all has never won over this trip and in fact, despite some high class placings, only won a maiden and an All-Weather listed race anyway. He looks vulnerable.

The only three year old in the race warrants respect, naturally, due to the weight allowance. Star Storm is only a decent handicapper to this date, though, and will need to improve a good deal to win this. He may well do it, but at the given price, I find him hard to fancy.

If one horse stands out in this field it is the filly Queen Of Ice. A multiple listed winner over 1m 4f as a three year old, she has run only twice this year and was a big disappointment in both starts. However she remains generally lightly raced. Tongue tied for the first time today and her low mileage may give her the edge in this race, and at a tasty price, I give her the nod.

Queen Of Ice @ 11/1 VC – 5pts Win

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3.35 Redcar: Guisborough Stakes (Listed), 7f

Guineas fifth Celestial Path has an obvious chance dropping heavily in class, given he has shown enough speed for 7f in the past either. However he hasn’t been seen for a long time. It might well be a positive to turn up fresh, but at a very short price I’m happy to leave him alone in the betting.

Much beloved Top Notch Tonto is extremely competitive at this level and has strong form to offer. Despite being a CD winner in the past, this drop in trip may not quite suit him on drying ground. Others are quicker.

So Beloved sets a high standard in my mind. He has top form to offer and loves the trip. But it won’t be easy giving weight away, which opens the door for three year old Tupi, who seems underappreciated in this field.

The Richard Hannon inmate has won two listed races over 7f and 1m earlier this year and was subsequently highly tried, without landing a blow against much too strong opposition. The drop back into listed class will help him surely to be competitive again. With trip and ground to suit, he deserves a crack at this and is overpriced big time.

Tupi @ 12/1 VC – 5pts Win

Ireland

Champion Chase: Clarcam ready for the battle?

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Dedigout and Paul Carberry

4.35 Gowran Park: Grade 2 Champion Chase, 2m 4f

Despite his return from a seasonal break, Clarcam sets a very high standard in this race and is the one they all have to beat. On past form he is clearly the star in this field and his record as a fresh horse is a positive one – so one would imagine he’ll be ready to go..

Although,maybe not quite as ready as last season? Since then Clarcam has developed into a top class chaser, a Grade 1 horse, who will have much bigger prices and targets waiting on the horizon, later in the season.

If Clarcam proves to be slightly vulnerable fitness wise today…. well, there are plenty of alternatives! Top weight Alelchi Inois will appreciate the return to the 2m 4f trip and should be ready for a big battle. He is best to be forgiven his last two below par runs.

Galway Plate winner Shanahan’s Turn poses to be an obvious danger, although I may wonder whether this shorter trip finds him out against speedier sorts? Jessica Harrington’s Cailin Annamh is quite an interesting contender. Improving and versatile, he can make use of her low weight.

Texas Jack probably prefers it softer and seems not as good as he used to be. He was fair and square beaten by Devils Bride the other day, although he’s better off on the weights today with this rival. Nonetheless I fancy the Gigginstown runner to get the better of ‘Jack again today – and in general he looks the one to side with if the favourite, in the same ownership, doesn’t fire.

This progressive chaser has won four of his six starts over fences and really improved this summer with a tongue tie applied. He improved from landing a Handicap at Galway, to beat Texas Jack at Listowel over 2m 4f in very comprehensive style, always travelling strongly. He looked to be able to pull out more if required, so the weight shouldn’t make too much off a difference today.

Whether Devils Bride is up to this high level here remains to be seen. However he clearly is talented and deserves his chance. He may well improve again – he has to do so – but if he does, he won’t be far away in the closing stages.

Devils Bride @ 11/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Saliisbury: Radhaadh deserves another chance

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Newmarket July Course

4.00 Salisbury: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 2f

Raw Impulse looks a strong favourite but at 9/4 is hardly a bet for me. Fellow three year old Radhaadh seems a big price compared, though. The filly got off the mark in a Chelmsford maiden over 10f two starts ago and did that in most impressive style.

Upped in trip to 1m 3f the next time in a hot handicap, she was racing for the lead, kicked on to win the race with the race leader over 3f out, however faded inside the final furlong. The slight drop in trip will surely suit better and the jury is still out whether she is up to her current mark.

She is related to smart Munaaser, though and well bred, which suggests there could be still more to come. She has the perfect draw today to accommodate her aggressive racing style – only concern I really have is the ground. She may well prefer a quicker surface. The sun over Salisbury will help though to dry out the last patches of soft… hopefully.

Radhaadh @ 16/1 Coral – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Monday Selection: Gameplay A Big Price at Wolvs

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Warren Hill

7.10 Wolverhampton: Nursery (Class 6), 1m 141y

A poor nursery which gives well bred Gameplay a big chance to get off the mark on his nursery debut. He hasn’t shown a lot in three maidens, but the slight step up in trip and the fact that he gets into this race of an opening mark off 60 must give him a big chance.

Add to this that cheekpieces are applied for the first time and his recent gelding op – Mr. Appleby has a tremendous record with geldings first time out – and a price of 9/2 becomes suddenly quite a big one in a race like this. Gameplay could have easily more to offer.

Gameplay @ 9/2 Coral – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Saturday Selections: Newbury

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2.15 Newbury: Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2), 6f

Wide open renewal, which lacks a real stand-out performer. I feel, though, rapidly improving King Robert is overpriced. He did a lot of good things in his two starts, overcoming all sorts of trouble. On his debut, when checked and short of room, he was brave and tough. He didn’t have a smooth run the next at Chester either. But he managed to win both times and found another gear when it mattered most.

Whether he is up to Group 2 level is in question We’ll find out today. Certainly he’ll appreciate the slow ground, as I fear on a faster surface he’d be probably quickly outpaced. But he acts fine on softish ground and seems a rather big price in this field.

King Robert @ 8/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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2.50 Newbury: Handicap (Class 2), 1m 2f

Burano is a highly attractive price today given he finds his preferred conditions. Down to his last winning mark at the moment he should be competitive on the soft ground, as he won a similar race at this track last year on a rain softened surface. He seemed to find back to some sort of form when last seen at Goodwood. He wasn’t too far beaten in a hot race, but will appreciate the additional furlong and good pace today.

Burano @ 25/1 Coral – 5pts Win

Ireland

Listowel: Texas Jack primed for big run

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Boom – there it is! A big winner, again, finally! Aaaahhh I needed that. Thankfully I didn’t see the race but only the result. Wouldn’t have been good for my heart. Misty Lady finished the job at tasty 14/1 in a thrilling finish. Nice.

4.55 Listowel: 2m 4f Chase

I can see why lightly raced Devils Bridge is a very popular horse here – it could well be the case that he can improve enough to be competitive with the top weight Texas Jack, who is obviously the class act in the field. However, as it has been the case in the last days, the ground will have something to say again.This young Devils Bridge has shown all his best form on quick ground – while Listowel dried out a bit, it is still soft today – so completely alien to him.

I’m more inclined to give proven class another chance. Texas Jack was disappointing in all his recent starts, but you can make excused for him. Either the ground wasn’t soft enough, or the trip to far. However 2m 4f on soft ground represents exactly the kind of test he wants.

So if this multiple Grade 2 winner runs to his best form today, he’ll be certainly hard to beat in my mind.So 5/1 looks rather on the generous side.

Texas Jack @ 5/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

Ireland

Listowel: Catalaunian will relish testing conditions

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Dedigout and Paul Carberry

Shame yesterday, Rule The World travelled much like he would rule the kingdom indeed… but he didn’t quite see it out and finished only third. He’s a frustrating horse, to some extend, I guess. Nonetheless, the greyer the clouds become, the darker the mornings are, the more I get into the mood for jump racing. I have set my eye on two interesting chances at Listowel today in particular….

5.00 Listowel: Grade B Handicap Hurdle, 2m

The ground has decimated the field and should be the deciding factor in the race. The favourite makes plenty of appeal as the bottom weight and may well have too much to offer, however is untested on really soft ground.

So chance is taken on Misty Lady, a proven soft ground performer who has won over two miles in the past. Infact she absolutely loves the mud and also stays further. I can see her being positively ridden today to make it a really stiff test which should suit her best. She has won earlier this year off a 10lb lower mark. This form stacks up well and she run with credit of her current mark subsequently, although switched to the flat then , she hasn’t shown any form in her last handful of starts.

Back over hurdles, with conditions sure to suit, she is a big price against the favourite though.

Misty Lady @ 14/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

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5.35 Listowel: Handicap Hurdle, 3m

If you wanna win this, you’ve got to stay the trip, and you need to stay it well in these ground conditions. That won’t suit a handful in this field, though there are some unexposed horses with potential in it.

I feel Catalaunian, albeit favourite on the machines at the moment, is still overpriced. He is lightly raced and improved dramatically for the step up to 3m and soft ground when winning a maiden at Bellewstown by a street last month. The form is  good as the runner-up won subsequently.

Catalaunian should absolutely relish todays conditions at Listowel, and while his mark is stiff enough for a handicap debut, it could equaly underestimate his potential.

Catalaunian @ 7/2 VC – 5pts Win

Ireland

Rule The World Can Rule The Kingdom

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Rule The World, runner-up Irish Grand National

3.45 Listowel: Handicap (Class 1), 9f

Heavy going all around at Listowel, we have to feel thankful for the fact that can race, actually. A pretty open looking handicap this is here, but I feel Water Sprite is quite overpriced. She couldn’t make her name count on the beach last week, but return to this track, where she won a CD handicap last season, should help.

She is also proven on soft ground and can stay further where needed. From a good raw she may go out aggressively  and make this stamina count on a tight track where it certainly is no disadvantage to be up with the pace. She has been pretty rubbish in her last three races, but for mentioned reasons should be competitive today, even more so with a decent 10lb claimer in the saddle.

Water Sprite @ 12/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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4.20 Listowel: Kerry National (Grade a Handicap). 3m

Rule The World is a bit an unlucky horse. He travelled so strongly in the Galway Plate the other day, just to slip two out. He would have gone mightily close, one would assume. He has never won over 3m, however he shouldn’t have a problem staying the trip, given he was second in last seasons Irish National.

What adds more weight to his chance: clearly the ground. He is so much better when it’s bottomless. While his mark went up 3lb for the strong Galway run, he has the fine 3lb claim from David Mullins.

Rule The World @ 7/1 William Hill

Global Racing

Sea Calisi a major threat for Treve

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3.10 Longchamp: Prix Vermeille (Group 1), 1m 4f

Back to back Arc winning mare Treve is back and she’s expected to win on her return in preparation for her bid to glory in October. She’s all class and the should win this if things go normal, as everything works in her favour – even the soft going, which she enjoys.

However I simply can’t let a filly go which I was desperately waiting to see again: Sea Calisi. Still lightly raced and improving all the time, this will only be her sixth start. She was progressive throughout the year, won a French Group 2 and went on to finish a mightily unlucky third in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks, where she travelled in rear, while the pace was slow and it was a big advantage to be up with it.

Winner, second and fourth where all prominent or making it, while Sea Calisi travelled strongly, but had a tough task to come from behind when she also didn’t enjoy the clearest of runs. She produced a strong change of gear on rain softened ground nonetheless, given the impression there is more to come.

It’s tough ground at Longchamp today and that is a slight concern as she has never raced on softer than good to soft before. However she has an abundance of stamina in her pedigree and plenty of soft ground form on her dam side.

I believe this filly can give Treve a real run for the money, if she copes with the conditions. She may can capitalize on her fitness advantage, but whatever happens, shouldn’t be far away.

Sea Calisi @ 23/1 Betfair – 5pts Win