All posts by Florian Christoph

Photographer & Runner - lives in the land of rain.
United Kingdom

Windsor: St Saviour Can Bounce Back

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Lexington Times

5.00 Windsor: Handicap (Class 4), 1m 2f

If the ground dries further it’ll be a big help to favourite Freight Train who is sure to try and make all. There is a bit of pace in the field though and with a bit of rain expected around Monday afternoon, soft patches are likely to remain in the ground, so it could expose the in-form Mark Johnston inmate.

Devonshire Place makes appeal dropping back to 10f. I’m worried though that his racing style will leave him with too much to do when it matters.

I feel St Saviour deserves another chance and could be quite a bit overpriced. After a below par effort at Sandown last month he has been dropped to a mark off 79 but in reality could be easily be a bit better than that.

He showed plenty of promise when 3rd here at Windor in a super hot maiden back in April, a form that works out extremely well. He got off the mark two starts later in a small field at Brighton but flopped subsequently as mentioned before. But it was a very competitive race in bottomless conditions off a higher mark – so lets draw a line through the performance.

Good to Soft ground at Windsor should suit well though as he acted well on it at Brighton, and with Oisin Murphy in the saddle, St Saviour may bounce back here.

St Saviour @ 12/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Betting: Sunday Selections

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Ivawood

3.05 Goodwood: Class 4 Nursery, 7f

Lightly raced Alabaaly only makes his second start in this company after showing some decent promise in three maiden races. First time blinkers lid him up the last time and he tired badly towards the end, yet finished 3rd nonetheless. Headgear has been dropped, he’s 3lb down in the mark and has been gelded in the meantime – a promising combination which should see him in much better light today.

Alabaaly @ 10/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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4.30 Chepstow PERSIAN WAR NOVICES´ HURDLE (Grade 2)

Emerging Talent sets a fine standard but can be opposed at a skinny price, given he has to prove that he can find something off the bridle – although the step up in trip should suit.

Against him Definite Outcome looks a reasonable danger. He is a former Irish point winner, who got easily off the mark in a NHF back in March when he looks still raw and green. He’s probably a nice chaser in the making but should take well to hurdling as well, for the moment. The trip must not be an issue and with the yard going well, he’s an interesting runner.

Definite Outcome @ 4/1 VC – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Saturday Betting: Chepstow

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Becher's Brook

3.55 Chepstow: Hamilton Hurdle (Handicap, Class 2), 2m

I really like Stars Over The Sea to do well here. He seems on a fair weight given his excellent performances last season, where he finished 4th in two big Grade 1’s at Aintree and Punchestown. Chepstow has the best possible jumping ground today which will suit this him allot and given that he had done extremely well as a fresh horse in the ears before, I would expect him to be a big runner today.

Stars Over The Sea @ 10/1 Coral -5pts Win

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4.30 Chepstow: Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Group 3), 2m 3f 100y

Plenty to like about progressive Our Kaempfer. Trainer Charlie Longsdon has his string in excellent order at this time of the year, so Our Kaempfer should be primed for a big run. A first handicap start for this six year old who really excelled last season over hurdles, winning twice and rounding it up with a big effort in the Grade 1 Sefton at Aintree.

Good ground and the trip should suit perfectly today and with only five starts over timber under his belt there is every reason to believe Our Kaempfer can improve again this year. He’s a tasty price against the overbet first two in the market.

Our Kaempfer @ 10/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Saturday’s Flat Tipps

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Newmarket Rowley Mile

3.10 Newmarket: Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1), 7f

Two super exciting colts go to post to fight it out here: Aiden O’Brien’s Air Force Blue and Godolphin’s Emotionless. Both created big impressions this season, both look special.

However I feel Air Force Blue should be a clear favourite here, given he already is a two times Group 1 winner – in fact he landed the two most important races for two year olds in Ireland, the Phoenix Stakes and National Stakes – and he seems to get better with each run.

The son of War Front has no issues with the ground today, after winning on yielding ground before. And he looked even more home over the 7f trip in the National Stakes than the sprints.

Air Force Blue @ 6/5 Racebets – 10pts Win

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5.35 Newmarket: Darley Stakes (Group 3), 9f

Mutakayyef is a very fair favourite to land this race but his odds offer no value so I go with lightly raced Ooty Hill who could easily be good enough to win at this level. He looked smart when getting off the mark last year at this venue but has had only two starts since.

A very promising runner-up effort behind subsequent Group 1 scorer Starof Seville was followed by a setback and a half year long lay-off. When he repapered at Newbury last month in an Arc Trial trainer Roger Charlton warned that Ooty Hill will most likely need the run.

The three year old colt dropped out tamely over 3f out which is a worry but he didn’t get a hard time either and one would hope the race has brought him along nicely for today.

Whether that is the case remains to be seen. Some horses never recover from their injuries. Ooty Hill deserves his chance today, though, and if he can find back to his form he’ll be a big runner with conditions very much to suit.

Ooty Hill @ 14/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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6.05 Chelmsford: Nursery (Class 5), 1m

Cogent makes his nursery debut and looks a very likeable sort. An opening mark off 70 looks stiff enough, but given the fact that he was far from disgraced in a super hot maiden when last time seen gives the indication that is a fair start. This son of Paco Boy is related to plenty of decent All-Weather winners and steps up to 1m which on pedigree will suit perfectly.

First time gelded today after a bit off a break, he makes plenty of appeal, given that sons of Paco Boy have often improved quite dramatically after a gelding op in the past. A good draw today is a help too – so in an open race, Cogent could easily outrun his odds.

Cogent @ 12/1 Coral – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Kempton: Gelded Perche can be a big improver

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Belardo

6.10 Kempton: Maiden Stakes, 12f

Godolphin’s Perche cost a lot of money as a yearling and actually looked a promising sort on his two starts last year, albeit he showed some problems at the start in his final run back then. Back off a break in July, he reared at the gate and lost his race there. Gelded in the meantime, which usually works exceptionally well for sons of New Approach as well as trainer Charlie Appleby, he might be a bit more calm now.

Still lightly raced, he remains with loads of potential, and the 3lb claim of talented apprentice Kevin Scott as well as a good draw are a big bonus today. The step up to 12f is a slight question mark, albeit far from impossible.

Perche @ 9/1 VC – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Market Rasen: Big Price’ Harris Can be involved

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Leicester Racecourse home straight

3.50 Market Rasen: Handicap Chase (Class 4), 3m 

Hard to put too much faith in any of the six starters, including the short favourite Ready Token. He has the best form in the book and has an ideal chance to overcome a career highest mark today. Whether he is good enough to do that, we’ll see.

From the bigger prices the Alan Brown runner Harris jumps out. He’s back after break but should be very much involved if fit, He won a Class 4 Handicap Chase at Bangor in April on good ground, but something was amiss the next next time. Off since then, and admittedly not a truly reliable sort, but still only five pounds higher today than his last success – what looks strong form .

Conditions should suit well and the yards goes well enough – so I can see Harris being very much involved here.

Harris @ 14/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Arc Review: Golden Horn spoils the party

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Golden Horn

That’s not the result we all wanted. Record bidding wonder mare Treve beaten. A rather disappointing fourth place – it ends the career of the two-times Arc champion on a slightly sour note – given the immense hype in the build-up to the race. Her scintillating turn of foot – not there. Instead she looked a tricky ride and Thierry Jarnet never comfortable.

The French jockey has been slated in some corners for this ride on Sunday afternoon. Rightly so, to an extend at least. He wasn’t aware of the pace scenario and the fact that the quick ground can make all the difference to bring back classy contenders who are up with the speed.

On the other hand he rode Treve exactly the same way as he did when she was so utterly impressive in the 2013 Arc. With the difference that this time she didn’t make ground on the outside in the same impressive way as she did back then. She looked a tricky ride for Jarnet in the closing stages too. He could never get her organised for a big finish.

Maybe she peaked a couple of weeks too early? Remember her stunning performance in the Prix Vermeille weeks before. Maybe it was the ground though. On the quick side of good, which seemed to inconvenience her in the past, seemingly didn’t suit on Sunday yet again.

But: she remains a two time Arc winner. A fantastic mare, one we’ll remember for a long time. An all-time great? Who knows. Let’s put away with this rubbish of comparing horses from different generations with the purpose to establish who is great and who isn’t. Treve has been a brilliant race horse. That is what matters and that is the way we shall remember her.

What a brilliant ride by Frankie, wasn’t it? He may not be quite as strong in the saddle as he used to be 15 years ago, but his brain works as well as ever. It was pure genius to mitigate the obvious disadvantages of Golden Horn’s wide draw; moving forward right away, on the far outside of the field. He avoided any hassle, kept the colt relaxed, got right to the top of the field without any problems and only seconds after the race started Golden Horn was suddenly in the best possible position.

The fast ground clearly helped him to float over the grass easily and effortless. The pace was good, kept him at ease, interested, but wasn’t too quick either. We know Golden Horn stays, and after the first quarter of the race I said to myself: he’ll be hard to peg back once he kicks on in the home straight. That’s exactly what happened.

The conditions clearly helped Golden Horn but it also helps if you’re the best horse in the race, I guess.

Credit where credit is due: John Gosden has done a phenomenal job with Golden Horn. He kept him well and fit throughout the season, campaigned him bravely and didn’t duck away from challenges. Now a Derby, Eclipse, Irish Champion Stakes and Arc winner – Golden Horn deserves the tag of a superstar. Next stop Breeders Cup?

Global Racing

Sunday Selections: Queen’s Jewel Ready To Bounce Back!

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1.35 Longchamp: Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Group 1) 

I stick to Herald The Dawn – was keen on him in the National Stakes when the ground turned soft though, which is not ideal. He finished a decent second behind classy Air Force Blue nonetheless. To an extend he followed up on his gutsy Futurity Stakes success, where he overcame softish conditions.

But the full-brother to Dawn Approach is a top of the ground horse as Jim Bolger pointed out, so today’s conditions at Longchamp do very much favour him. If he is as classy as his trainer says he is, he’ll be a big runner. With the benefit of the doubt, I give him this chance here.

Herald The Dawn @ 9/2 Betfred – 5pts Win

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2.10 Longchamp: Prix de l’Opera (Group 1) 

Queen’s Jewel was a very short favourite to land the Diane earlier this year. She seemingly had problems that day, though, reportedly bleeding, that you can easily forgive her the poor showing there. The filly is much better judged on her utterly impressive display in the Saint-Alary, when she overcame greenness as well as a wide passage.

The Freddy Head inmate looked special that day, which was the reason for her short odds in the French Oaks. Her break since then may be a blessing in disguise, given that she arrives as a fresh horse here. Still lightly raced, you would assume there is more to come from here.

Queen’s Jewel @ 13/2 VC – 5pts Win

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3.45 Tipperary: Istabraq Hurdle (Grade 2)

This should be a battle between the two Tony Martin inmates Thomas Edison and Ted Vale. The latter one finished an excellent third in the Galway hurdle, while having been caught a bit too far off the pace and in slight in-running trouble at a crucial time turning for home. He travelled strongly, though, coming with a big challenge jumping the last, when his stable mate Thomas Edision, equally looking to win the race, fell and hampered Ted Vale.

On that form, both horses are closely matched, although Thomas Edision stands better in the weights today, and potentially has a bit more room for improvement, while we basically know what Ted Vale is. However given the discrepancy in price, it is easy for me to go with Ted Vale here.

Ted Vale @ 3/1 Bet365 – 10pts Win

Global Racing

ARC Preview: All to lose for Treve…?

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Treve bids for a historic third Arc – yes, that’s a third one….. on the bounce! But you probably know that already. Anyway; she’s going to win? Possibly. The wonder mare is hard to oppose. Her form stands up to all scrutiny. She was utterly impressive in her prep. She has a fair draw. Only in-running trouble can spoil the party. Or the ground? Maybe. It’s slightly quicker than ideal for her.

So, what to make of the race? Treve is going to win if all goes to plan. However every horse has only a certain chance by percentage after all and with the favourite over-bet, there is value elsewhere to find.

Tapestry: A super filly. Now four years old, she returned from an almost year long absence last month at the Curragh where she finished an excellent runner-up behind smart Ribbons in the Group 2 Blandford Stakes. She was beaten for speed but fought gamely. She’ll be better over the 1m 4f Arc trip.

The Ballydoyle filly was second in last years Irish Oaks but made no mistakes when lowering the colours of supper filly Taghrooda in the Yorkshire Oaks. A long, hard season was telling, though, when she finished down the field in the 2014 Arc.

I expect her to improve big time for her comeback run, which in itself was a strong performance. But fitness wise she’ll be better today, and she’ll certainty enjoy the sound surface- the good draw is a bonus. Tapestry is a smart, genuine filly, not the likeliest winner, of course, but has plenty of good things on her side, so at 40/1 I have to say she is more likely to outrun her price tag than not.

Erupt: A three year old colt with strong course and distance form; he is the reigning champ of the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris….. and you get 25’s? WOW! I guess he was an even bigger price earlier this week, nonetheless, this us huge, considering that this price tag is seemingly based on a poor showing in the Prix Niel.

Okay, he was easily beaten by New Bay that day, but the ground was very soft. It’s a different scenario today. The good ground will surely make all the difference to Erupt’s performance and with a perfect draw in 4 he’s very likely to find himself in an excellent position when the field turns for home.

Once he hits top gear, he can be difficult to peg back. He may not have shown his absolute best yet, either. There is a possibility for him improving, again. That says I’m pretty confident to see him finish at least in the top five.

What else? Well, Golden Horn, of course! The Derby and Irish Champion Stakes winner is an intriguing contender. Personally I’m worried about the draw. He’ll have to be extra special to overcome it and to beat Treve.

French Derby winner New Bay is touted to be the biggest danger for Treve. But is he? The fast ground is a clear question mark in my eyes. He has a super draw, though. I do look forward to see whether he can translate his excellent form and talent to this different surface. No excuses being drawn in five, that’s for sure. But honestly, I wouldn’t bet on it.

Summery: Treve will win. I want to see her doing it. Make history, love. I don’t think the ground is too much of an inconvenience. She’ll be fine. If she gets a clear passage, she’s pulverizing this field. If not, well, then I hope quite selfishly, one of my two fancies can sneak in.

Erupt @ 25/1 Betfred – 5pts Win 
Tapestry @ 40/1 Racebets – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Keeneland: Europeans have a strong hand

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9.35 Keeneland: First Lady Stakes (Grade 1)

Soft ground makes this quite an unpredictable race but potentially the Europeans are best suited. Aiden O’Brien’s filly Easter is well fancied but I prefer stable mate Outstanding at double the price. When last seen she finished a fine 3rd in a Group 3 behind Irish Oaks runner-up Jack Naylor and Easter when.

She has won on soft ground in the past, so she’ll handle the conditions and with the slow ground probably won’t mind the drop to 1m. A full-sister to Magician, she is obviously well bred, and with lasix used on her again – as when she was a fine 3rd in the Belmont Oaks earlier the year – she could be well able to leave this years form behind.

Outstanding @ 6/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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10.45 Keeneland: Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (Grade 1)

Two horses I have to put up for this race: European raider Kelinni has hardly the credentials to land a Group 1, but with first time lasix, slow ground and top draw, he should be extremely competitive in a race that lacks star quality. He stays much further than the mile trip, but won a 7f Handicap in Ireland when the last time seen, making all that day. Same tactics will be useful here.

The Pizza Man looks underestimated here. He drops in trip, and that may not quite suit, though the slow ground should help as he has a good record in softish conditions. He won the Arlington Million last month, his third success this year. He’s a tough, genuine type. Exactly what you want here.

The Pizza Man @ 10/1 VC – 5pts Win
Kelinni @ 12/1 VC – 5pts Win