Stoute’s Pleaidas might be better than what he has shown in two starts this year, but he becomes increasingly a frustrating sort and is one to avoid today. I did like the way Steal The Scene won over 7f the last time. He looks scopey and needed the fist seasonal outing before. But the trip is a worry today. Purple Rock may still improve and back over a mile with a career lowest mark is certainly interesting.
However the top weight Bartholomew Fair is very hard to oppose in my eyes. I missed the good prices but still think he is too big a price in this field. He was found out for class and stamina in the Derby trial at Lingfield the last time on his seasonal reappearance but one would expect him to come on for it.
Drop back to 1m will suit so should the quick ground. This extremely well bred colt won a Yarmouth maiden last year in very taking fashion and wasn’t disgraced in a subsequent Group race where he ran better than the bare result suggests as he was always wide without cover didn’t help and he didn’t handle Newmarket either.
It’s a dramatic drop in class today, he takes on potentially inferior opposition and of a mark off 90 he should have no problems to come on out on top. I liked his athletic looks, he seemed to have improved physically too, and if he can find to anything of the class he showed in his maiden win and to what his pedigree is pointing to, he’ll be hard to beat today.
Hard to know what to expect from some individuals in this race,, nonetheless I find it rather easy to narrow the field down to four, five contenders.
I’m most intruded by the Richard Hannon trained Sirheed on his three year old debut, though. He has been gelded over the winter which could help him to be mentally more ready for the job. This Rip Van Winkle son cost a bit of money as a yearling and is pretty well bred, related to a good family.
He looks the type likely to improve with age and should be able to leave his juvenile form easily behind. That says he appeared well framed and scopey last year. I like his performance when last seen at Kempton over 1m. He showed early gate speed, made all and looked the winner entering the final furlong. He tired late and got caught in the final fifty yards.
The drop in trip looks a good thing judged on that effort. There is speed on his dam line and it’s interesting that Dettori makes his way to Salisbury for this one ride only. One would suggest Sirheed is race fit today.
Widen open renewal on paper but I find it rather easy to narrow down the field.
Ger Lyons’ Ainippe heads the betting at the moment. This filly was a Listed winner last year over 5f and seemed to train on well over the winter. She was a close runner-up in a hot Conditions Race at Navan last month behind smart Toscanini – though she had everything going for herself. She received plenty of weight from the favourite and had a very good 10lb apprentice in the saddle too. She certainly will find it tougher here where the weights aren’t favouring her as much as the last time.
Recent Haydock Listed winner Blhadawa improved dramatically for first time cheek-pieces. She drew well clear and her lightly raced profile gives every chance for more improvement. She’s a top chance in this field. However she has to give weight away to some smart three year olds and that becomes increasingly difficult at this time of the year where things swing in favour of the younger horses.
I feel his main danger is going to be Newsletter. This 3yo filly was a smart juvenile, but took her form to a new level this year. She shaped with promise on her seasonal reappearance at Bath over 5f but subsequently enjoyed even more the additional furlong at Nottingham. She won the Listed Kilvington Fillies’ Stakes in fine style, beating some decent opposition. This success came on soft ground but she also done well over much quicker in the past, so the likely good ground at Curragh won’t be an issue at all.
Stormfly ran well in the 1000 Guineas and the respective trial, but the drop to 6f isn’t sure to suit. Same could be said about Iveagh Gardens, who beat Found recently. The drying ground is clearly against her. Hard to fancy either Steip Amach nor Cape Factor on form.
Verdict: Two horses stand out for me: Blhadawa and Newsletter. Both lto winners gave strong impressions. Hard to say who is the better one but the weight may decide in favour of the three year old filly. She gets eight pounds here which is allot, given that she has beaten some decent older horses when last seen.
Pretty clear storyline tonight: American Pharoah wins the Belmont and becomes the first conquer of the Triple Crown in ages. That’s the theory at least, or what the betting is telling us. Well, in fact many experts were making strong cases for this scenario as well. Pharoah’s relaxed attitude, lack of real opposition and so on where all brought up. And rightly so.
It would be massive for our sport if American Pharoah could make it happen – the sport needs superstars. Pharoah already is a star, of course. He won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. But win the Triple Crown and immortality beckons. While he was still heavily challenged in the Derby, he hacked up at sloppy Pimlico – but here’s the all important question: can he show the same class over in the Belmont Stakes, a race which puts an alien like test to him?
Alien like because the 12f trip is a marathon distance for US racing. Something comparable with 2m in Europe. That’s down the nature of US racing. Emphasis is on early speed, unlike in Europe.
Personally I’m wary. I was sceptical before the Preakness, back then voicing concerns about the potential third leg of the Tripe Crown. American Pharoah doesn’t give me the impression to be a stayer. He’s speedy and powerful, but on pedigree you would give him very little chance to go as far as 12f.
Now, he has the right attitude, he really has! And he usually hits the line strongly – so happened in the Derby and the Preakness – plus there is there general perception of the lack of classy opposition in the Belmont Stakes, which many believe there is just nobody who’s capable of beating him.
My view is: that all counts for nothing if he doesn’t stay the trip. It’s that simple. Yes, my heart is with him tonight, all fingers crossed when he enters the home straight. But my money won’t be.
So let’s check out Pharoah’s opposition, shall we? I’m a huge fan of Mike De Kock and South African racing, so I’d love to see Mubtaahij running a mighty race. He swerved the Preakness, which was probably the right decision. But I’ve trouble to see him getting home over this trip. Unfortunately.
Derby fourth Frosted is thought to be the biggest danger to American Pharoah. He also comes here as a fresh horse and seems likely to appreciate the trip. He wasn’t well positioned at Churchill Downs, staying on well from the back. On pedigree he has a fair chance to stay 12f, but it’s not a given either.
Tale Of Vale came from a long way back to finish second in the Preakness, albeit still decisively beaten by Pharoah. Not sure if this performance reflects his true ability. He didn’t really excel in minor races before. So I’m rather cautious – he might not be able to back it up. Though the longer trip may well suit.
Staying on in the Derby was Materiality. A son of Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex, he may appreciated the trip. Whether he is good enough is another question. At least he already is a Grade 1 winner, so can’t be easily discounted. Might be an interesting alternative against the red hot favourite.
However I find Keen Ice more appealing at a much bigger price. He also didn’t go to Pimlico, and is closely matched with Materiality on the Kentucky Derby form, as he finished behind him in 7th. Keen Ice encountered a troubled run, travelling way off the pace. He was hampered and short of room in the closing stages, but finished the race well enough.
He’s a son of Belmont Stakes runner-up Curlin, who can get offspring capable of staying the Belmont trip, like in 2013 with Palace malice – his stock sometimes needs a while to hit best form as well. Keen ice has some fair Belmont form in his dam line too.
That brings me to my final point: the heart is with American Pharoah – if he wins tonight he’s to be considered one of the all-time greats. My head and money is with Keen Ice, though, who seems to have good credentials to appreciate the Belmont trip and who looks still a big price, despite some money pouring in for him.
A 19 runner strong Handicap – of course it is ultra competitive! That says I do really struggle to see anything obvious and believe this is as open as it gets. A massive upset wouldn’t be a surprise. If I’d have to tip the likeliest winner it’d be Jakey, who has the right credentials to go close.
But there is better value to find in this field: 40/1 long-shot Pack Leader is the one I have my eyes on. Yes, he’s even a long-shot in my book, though probably more like a 20/1 chance. I felt he improved physically from three to four, evident on his seasonal reappearance at Kempton last month. He looked rusty and not very sharp that day, however big and strong, and should come on for the run.
Pack Leader has already form at Epsom, when third here last year. He also proved stamina over 12 furlongs in the past, when runner-up at Salisbury in a Handicap off his current mark. His strike rate is worrying, he won only single race to date – though in fairness that was a very good maiden at Goodwood last June – this form works out really well, indeed!
I can see him able to outrun his price given that track and trip should suit perfectly plus the possibility of improvement from his seasonal debut run.
The race is on and I couldn’t be more excited. The Group 1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge gives us the mouthwatering clash of South Africa’s heavyweights Legislate VS Futura. The two stars have made it through their preparations and trainer Justin Snaith is happy to let them take each other on.
Snaith, who is in the unique position to train both of them, recently said when talking about this: “I had good horses before. But these are the real deal. They would take on anything in the world – they are THAT good.”
LEGISLATE
Reigning horse of the year, reigning Durban July champ, Guineas and Daily News winner – he’s done it all in 2014. Heading into the Queen’s Plate back in January, South Africa’s Premier Mile race, he was thought to be virtually unbeatable. Weeks before he stuffed his rivals, including Futura, in the Grade 2 Green Point Stakes, when returning from a deserved break after winning the biggest race of them all, the Durban July.
That’s when the problems started. After Aan unusually dismal performance in the Queen’s Plate it emerged that Legislate suffered from a severe lung infection. That took him out for months to get over it. He also missed his intended return to the track recently, when he injured himself while loading into the stalls.
So, how much ability can Legislate retain? Is he 100% today? According to Justin Snaith, Legislate couldn’t be any better. He’s ready to go, though it’s hard to know whether he’s back to his brilliant best. One the positive side: Legislate looked sensational in his public work, effortless floating over the ground.
What’s more, Legislate usually runs very well as a fresh horse. He always made a successful return – bar the Queens Plate race, where we know he wasn’t right. He’s also unbeaten at Greyville and clearly has the speed and turn of foot for 1.600m as a former Guineas winner.
FUTURA
A hype horse at this time last year. Futura was a massive market mover for the Durban July, South Africa’s most important race. But he wasn’t tested in Grade 1 company yet back then. He looked an emerging star – or a bubble ready to burst – whatever way you wanted to see it. But he proved his class when running out a strong third in the July, with the run of the race clearly against him. He redeemed himself soon after, landing a deserved first success on the highest level.
He hasn’t looked back since then, bar one race: When put into his place by Legislate in the Green Point Stakes. But he subsequently completed the Queen’s Plate & Met double – which is a rare feast! The handicapper reacted, put Futura’s rating up to massive 120 – which means he’s one of the top rated horses in the world now – mind you, 3lb better than Legislate!
Futura had a little break afterwards but was back as strongly as ever when winning a minor race in preparation to the Rising Sun Gold Challenge last month. The general perception is that 1.600m is not an ideal trip for him – 2.000m seems the distance. However his record over 1.600m speaks for itself. 6-4-1-1. Never been out of the money.
BEST OF THE REST
Of course this is not a two-horse-race. Ten more or less well fancied rivals try to land a blow against the two big guns. Ice Machine with Anton Marcus on board is the closest pursuer in the betting. He was an impressive winner of his prep race recently and loves the trip. Not one you want to underestimate but on bare form has has a little to find.
The rest of the field can only hope that the race turns into a muddling affair, which may not quite suit the heavyweights, and as a result they may encounter in-running trouble. There was a shock winner in this very same race twelve month ago, so it’s not quite out of the world. A sprint finish would probably suit Willow Magic most. He ran well in a big Grade 1 sprint recently but stays 1.600m.
VERDICT
I believe a Legislate at his best is the best horse in South Africa – better than Futura too. Before his injury troubles this was the general perception. He was virtually unbeatable, went into the Queen’s Plate a 9/20 chance! Over 1600m he has an advantage against Futura as well. But only if he can find back to his brilliant best.
The race will tell us if the old Legislate is back. Visually he looked superb in his work. He goes well fresh and I give him the benefit of the doubt today. He he’s almost twice as big in the betting as Futura. Convert his odds into a percental chance: 11/4 = 26.6667%.
So if I ask myself: Is Legislate a better chance in this field, if anywhere near his best? Absolutely! I’d nominate Willow Magic as the joker in the race and wouldn’t be surprised if Halve The Deficit can outrun his big price tag – although both shouldn’t be anywhere good enough if things go normal.
Big surprise in the Oaks today – 50/1 shocker Qualify got up to deny Legatissimo the Guinas & Oaks double. That says, if you would have been brave enough, you could have got easily 100/1 for the winner this morning…. I didn’t, that is for sure, completely dismissed this filly. I got it wrong. But it helps to know that most got it wrong.
My filly Together Forever had not too many excuses. Up with the pace, which wasn’t a strong one, she got bumped 2f out, but I felt she was already out of it at that point anyway. Lady Of Dubai finished a fine third. I’m somewhat happy she didn’t win. I was very fond of her beforehand was slapping my face this morning when I saw the money pouring in for her, knowing I left 14/1 on the table the night before
Anyway, that’s the Oaks. History now. Let’s concentrate on what’s in front of us: The Derby!
4.30 Epsom: English Derby, Group 1, 1m 4f 10y
Golden Horn: Favourite, impressive winner of the Dante Stakes. as the key trial. I marked him as one to follow in my Horses To Follow article. Hard to oppose on form but question mark is the trip. I have him down as a 10f horse, though he might be able to stretch out to the Derby distance. Whether he stays the trip is not really the question, though, it’s more whether he’s able to stay it in a way that enables him to beat horses who are certain to get it.
Jack Hobbs: Runaway winner of a Sandown Handicap. Proved his class in Dante with good runner-up effort. Clearly not yet the finished article and fair chance to stay the trip. That says his dam hasn’t produced a winner over 12f yet. Likely to improve again but has to do so if he wants to go close.
Elm Park: Racingpost Trophy winner. Didn’t do anything wrong when third in Dante on seasonal reappearance. He’ll come on for that and I expect him to finish much closer to Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs this time. He clearly stays, will get the trip, but has to prove he can be top class on better ground. However if there is anything soft in the ground come 4.30 Saturday afternoon he must have a prime chance.
Giovanni Canaletto: Another one from my Horses To Follow list. Lightly raced, this lack of experience may count against him. But he looked smart when winning a minor race as a juvenile and his comeback run a fortnight ago was promising the way he finished from a poor position. He’s a full-brother to 2013 Derby winner Ruler Of The World and should improve for the trip. Like his big brother, he’s fitted with cheep-pieces for the Derby.
Epicuris: Group 1 winner in heavy conditions as a juvenile. Form doesn’t really work out, and not too exciting on seasonal reappearance when only 2nd in Group 3. Known for his problems in the preliminaries of a race and unclear if he can be fully effective on better ground.
Hans Holbein: Lightly raced Chester Vase winner. Probably needs soft ground and more of a Leger type. Big question mark whether he’s quick enough to win the Derby.
Kilimanjaro: Witnessed with my own eyes when this lad got the mark in a Dundalk maiden back in April. Won the Derby Trial at Lingfield since then. Fair type but I find it hard to see him good enough to win a Derby.
Moheet: Looked exciting as a juvenile but hasn’t fulfilled promise in couple of starts this year. He may improve with time and experience but the Derby distance looks very ambitious.
Storm The Stars: One of the more experienced individuals, yet he looked still a big baby in his races. Took him a while to get off the mark but clearly progressing and the trip is in his blood. Might be up with the pace and wouldn’t mind making all if needed. Very dangerous if allowed an easy lead.
Success Days: Progressive and impressive in Ireland this year. Likely needs it soft to be seen to best effect and very dubious stayer on pedigree.
Rogue Runner: German raider who won two minor races in his native country. May improve for the step up to Derby trip but very hard to see him good enough to land a blow.
Carbon Dating: Still a maiden, big chance to finish last.
Verdict: Ground seems key. If there are any soft patches in the ground I believe Elm Park must go really close. But with the ground probably drying out over night, I feel there are others races later the year which are likely to suit better. Golden Horn is top class and will go close if he truly gets the trip. But given his very short price is easily opposable.
I admit I’m not getting warm with Jack Hobbs and don’t see why he is shorter than a couple of others. He’s a good horse and may even develop into top class, but for now I have Elm Park higher in the packing order.
However it’s clearly Giovanni Canaletto who gets the nod from me. I have a 16/1 ante-post bet on him, but he’s still a 9/1 chance, which strikes me as too big – therefore I nominate him as my selection for the Derby. He’s clearly classy, has the right credentials on pedigree and first time headgear should help to settle and focus when it matters.
The final race on Doncaster’s card is all but exciting. But “tracker horse” Oracolo has an entry and I’m inclined to give him a second chance. I was already keen on the son of Cape Cross when he made his seasonal debut at Newmarket last month, but that seemed more like a public gallop for the four year old, in order to blow the cobwebs away.
Oracolo appeals as the type likely to improve with age and experience, so the Newmarket outing may have done him the world of good. Still a lightly raced gelding, last year he needed three attempts to get off the mark, finished third in a good Redcar maiden and then went on to win at Wolverhampton in what was quite a decent race.
It’ll be only his second start in Handicap company here at Doncaster, over a trip and fast ground likely to suit perfectly on pedigree. He also has also been gelded over the winter, which sometimes needs a run or two to really make an impact.
In a nutshell: I think in this underwhelming field Oracolo has a prime chance to go really close off a pretty fair mark.
This looks a wide open contest and I find it hard to get warm with the favourite Aces. Clearly a talented individual and open to improvement, but that could easily be said about half of the field.
I’ve decided to go with one my ‘tracker horses’: Hail The Hero. This Former aiden O’Brien inmate cost 500k as a yearling and is extremely well bred. He didn’t quite fulfil the promise of his pedigree yet and remained a maiden in three starts as a juvenile – though he showed talent when close runner-up behind Vert De Grece, who subsequently finished less than a lengths beaten by Gleneagles and ended the season with a Group 1 success in France.
Hail The Hero has changed yards over the winter, is now with David O’Meara. He was excellent on his debut for new connections back in March when he landed a Doncster maiden in impressive fashion. He meat in-running trouble that day but was still able to produce a blistering turn of foot when finally in the clear and won easily.
Upped in class subsequently, he couldn’t land a blow in either the Craven Stakes nor the Guineas. But now dropped in Listed class, he may have a more realistic target. The drop back to 7f should suit as well, so will the ground.
A Handicap competitive in its nature, though nothing obvious sticks out. Many have to deal with high marks and are tasked with a career best. Fire Fighter could be one who is able to achieve this. He won well at Redcar with a bit in hand when last seen, and under a penalty he is likely to be a big runner.
But it might worth to give What About Carlo another chance. He was progressive last season, won here at Epsom a competitive 10f Handicap and is now only 1lb above this last winning mark.
He’s slipping down to a rating of 95 due to some poor recent efforts. This blip in form comes a bit as a surprise as he finished the Lincoln at Doncaster in eye-catching fashion, over a trip too sharp. He was outpaced but stuck gamely to the task and run out a creditable 4th place.
If What About Carlo can bounce back to form he could take all the beating today I feel given that he is one of only very few in this field who are potentially well handicapped. Conditions should suit down to the grounds.
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