All posts by Florian Christoph

Photographer & Runner - lives in the land of rain.
Global Racing

Friday Selections: Goodwood & Galway

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Newmarket Rowley Mile tight finish

2.35 Goodwood: Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3)

Bold entry from Mick Channon to send his classy filly Malabar into the race. But then, there are good reasons for it. Goodwood is the place of her biggest triumph, when she landed a Group 3 here last year. Since then she contested at the highest level against top class opposition while performing consistently well. She is however a filly who runs consistently into trouble as well.

She was unlucky in a handful of her starts, most recently in the Irish 1000 Guineas and subsequently the Prix De Diane. She drops markedly in class today and I believe that should make all the difference. She just doesn’t have quite the high cruising speed or change of gear you need at Group 1 level.

But down in Group 3 class, she should be a major player in this wide open race. Visors fitted may help her to stay focused until the race is over as she often travelles well but seem to lack sharpness when it really matters. Negative is De Sousa who just can’t ride Goodwood. But it’s worth the risk as Malabar strikes me as a filly with a massive chance.

Malabar @ 10/1 Sportinbet – 5pts Win

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3.10 Goodwood: Betfred Mile Handicap, 1m

This should be an incredibly close race and I feel Ocean Tempest is very much overlooked. He hasn’t really excelled at Meydan and seemed to feel this tough campaign on his UK comeback in the Lincoln. Back from a break now, he is finally dropped to a realistic mark again in a grade where he belongs.

He has the draw to get into a positive position right from the start here, which should suit. He may not get an easy lead, but tracking it would work too. Off 105 he must certainly enter calculations if back in form, given he won off ten pounds higher last year.

Ocean Tempest @ 33/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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4.20 Goodwood: Nursery, Class 2, 6f

Richard Fahey’s filly Zahrat Narjis makes plenty of appeal here on her Nursery debut. She is very well bred, by a sire who gets often excellent 2 year olds, out of a Group 3 winning dam. She showed promise in all her three maidens and now switched to this company should help her. She could easily be better than her opening mark off 72.

Zahrat Narjis @ 12/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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6.50 Galway: Guinness Handicap, 1m 4f

Dermot Weld’s Show Court went close in this last year when runner-up off a 2lb higher mark. He travelled strongly but maybe hit the front a bit too early. 12f seems his absolute limit stamina wise and the same scenario could very well happen today again – but at 7/1 I’m rather on him, given that he appears to be well handicapped now.

Show Court @ 7/1 Betfed – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Thursday Selections

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Cheltenham Festival

2.35 Goodwood: Qatar Richmond Stakes (Group 2)

Long Island at 6/1 is a huge price in my mind. Forgive him the run at the Curragh which came too soon after a big performance at Royal Ascot. He’s more suited to 6f though and after a bit of rest should be back to his best today. He went into the Royal meeting as the most exciting 2yo and I think it’s too early to give up on him.

Long Island @ 6/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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3.00 Galway Handicap (90-60), 1m

Top weight of ten stone and a wider than ideal draw are tough asks, but lightly raced Champagne Or Water makes plenty of appeal in this field nonetheless. She came out off her seasonal break really well at the Curragh earlier this month when she won a good Handicap in fine style.

She came miles clear with the runner-up and might well be able to pull out more, despite a rise off 9lb in the mark. She is overpriced here.

Champagne Or Water @ 9/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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3.10 Goodwood: Goodwood Cup (Group 2), 2m

I like to think that Pallasator is capable to bounce back today. He’s a really interesting runner – the three year old filly Vive Ma Fille is the one that intrigues me most. She is wonderfully bred, is a full-sister to Group 1 winning Vif Monsieur and she stepped up successfully to Listed class at Royal Ascot last month.

She tried 2m for the first time and attempted to make all. She set a steady pace and was in with a big shout over one furlong out, however hang her chances literally away. Whether this performance is prove enough for her ability to truly stay 2m isn’t clear yet as on pedigree she hasn’t really a right to do so, but it was an encouraging effort in a competitive field.

Today is tougher of course in a better grade against seasoned stayers, and the fact remains that she has won only one single race to date. But she has been very consistent in her form. What I like is thee fact that she receives a truckload of weight from the rest of the field. The Johnston yard is flying too, so there’s plenty to like about her chances.

Vive Ma Fille @ 20/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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4.45 Galway: Galway Hurdle, Handicap, Class 1, 2m

It was Diakali first, the rest nowhere on his seasonal comeback at Tipperary eleven days ago. If this doesn’t come too soon today, it’s hard to look beyond him. This six year old is the class act, still improving and as long as he takes to the track, will take all the beating, despite top weight. I feel 5/1 is rather generous.

Diakali @ 5/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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7.15 Ffos Las: Class 6 Handicap, 10f

I’m sure Kingdom Of Alba is better than what he’s shown in three maidens yet with the yard going strongly, but the same could easily apply to Rebel Yell who makes plenty of appeal on his handicap debut either. He’s pretty well bred and should be very well suited by the step up in trip.

Gelded since his last run will help to focus him more on the task ahead. Usually this works well for Shamardal offspring. This is very winnable race, so with plenty in his favour, he’s a worth a nibble at 10/1.

Rebel Yell @ 10/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

Ireland

Wonder Holy bound to improve

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6.40 Galway: 3yo Handicap, 1m

The trip is a concern for the favourite, although the light weight is a huge advantage for Laganore. I feel the horses higher up the marks facing quite a stiff task and my interest mainly applies to the lower weights.

With Laganore making not much appeal due to a shocking price, the next best choice appears to be Wonder Holy. Of a mark off 79 with a useful 5lb claimer in the saddle, he is an intriguing sort.

He hinted a bit of ability in a maiden at Fairyhouse when he finished strongly coming from an impossible position. He got off the mark the next time at Killarney, when again not favoured by the way the race was ran, but he got there in time.

Today represents a massive step up in class, but I believe there is a good chance he is a bit better than his current rating. He has a good draw today and the ground won’t bother him at all – therefore he seems quite a big price.

Wonder Holy @ 20/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Preview: Gordon Stakes (Group 3)

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2.35 Goodwood: Gordon Stakes (Group 3)

I feel depressed to say it, but I have to oppose Highland Reel firmly. He was the most exciting horse to look forward before the start of the season but he didn’t fulfil the promise he showed as a juvenile. I tend to agree, though, that his Derby performance was too poor to be true and he might be seen in a better light today. Yet he could be vulnerable to some progressive sorts and is not certain to stay thus far anyway.

Medrano is a fair alternative and should run his race, however the drying ground might not be quite what he wants. Disegno would have to take a big step forward to feature, I feel, and he doesn’t look all that likely to do what is required to win.

The two individuals most likely to improve are Scottish and Space Age. Both have improved in recent weeks and deserve a shoot in this company. I struggle to favour one over the other, though. I fancy both and feel they are overpriced. So I go with both.

Scottish is a full-brother to Group 3 winner Royal Empire. He was beaten on his seasonal reappearance by smart Mr Singh but got off the mark subsequently in fine style. Stepped up in trip at Royal Ascot, he was an excellent runner-up behind Space Age but had to delay his run until 2f out at which point Space Age was long gone. He looks clearly on the up.

Space Age’s win at Royal Ascot was freak-like. Overcoming the widest draw, setting a hot pace but held on gamely in the closing stages. He was beaten in 2nd off his revised mark in his next start by a well handicapped individual, but most importantly had to give loads of weight away that day while deploying an aggressive racing style once again.

Both look well up to pattern class in my mind and should run big races with conditions to suit.

Space Age @ 9/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
Scottish @ 8/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win 

Global Racing

Tuesday Selections

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Massinga

After some busy weeks in real life and disappointing results on the racetrack I’m getting back into the mood – Glorious Goodwood and the Galway Festival are surely helping. Some serious racing is on offer today, and I’ll try to enjoy it as much as possible. From a betting perspective I feel the bookies have made some errors:

3.45 Goodwood: Notarised @ 8/1

Naturally this is an ultra-competitive Handicap, but the ground doesn’t play into the hands of many. However it should suit progressive Notarised. He is hard to pass once in front, as shown when winning at Haydock recently where he prevailed in a tough fight. He pulled clear with the second, who’s a good horse in his own right too.

Notarised has won at Goodwood before as well as over 2m. He should have all in his favour, including the possibility to get a soft lead. He has to overcome a career highest mark, but can be able to pull out a bit more once again, particularly with conditions to suit so well today.

> Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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6.15 Galway: Kind Of Magic @ 4/1

The Aiden O’Brien filly should be much shorter here. She was a big eye-catcher on her debut when she ran green and was poorly positioned when the race unfolded. But she finished in impressive style without getting a hard ride. She’ll have learned plenty that day.

Softish ground today should be in her favour as her dam won a Listed race on bottomless ground. She has not much to fear in this field as the Weld favourite doesn’t make any appeal at all at a very skinny price over a trip potentially too short for Simannka. I expect Kind Of Magic to turn the table with Bolger’s Siamsaiocht too.

> 4/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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6.50 Galway: Galway Topaz Mile – Aussie Valentine @ 25/1

Dermot Weld’s runner proves popular for many reasons. Surely the lightly raced Stay The Night is primed and bound for a big run. But in a competitive race like this you have to oppose him at the given prices.

In my mind Aussie Valentine is a huge price given the excellent improvement he has shown in some tough handicaps this season. A bit unlucky in the Lincoln, when runner-up behind an exciting improver, he made no mistake at Leopardstown subsequently. The Alleged Stakes came a bit too soon after those big races and he didn’t show his true form.

Back off a break today should suit him well. He usually runs best when fresh. More rain is expected which is surely in his favour and the trip is perfect too. Obviously the track is an unknown and the draw a concern, but at this price something I can live with.

> Bet365 – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Preview: Pomfret Stakes

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4.00 Pontefract: Pomfret Stakes (Listed), 1m

The boys in blue have a red hot favourite here in Let’s Go. This three year old gelding recently smashed some decent handicappers on only his second ever career start and on that evidence, given the weight for age allowance, he might be hard to beat today.

However it’s completely different – i.e. stronger – opposition as well as a different surface he meets here – we’ll find out how he handles it. Given his skinny price I look elsewhere.

I feel there isn’t much between the others well fancied rivals. Mondialiste can bounce back from a slightly disappointing effort at Royal Ascot. He’s having a strong season nonetheless and his third behind French Navy in Group 3 company sets the standard.

Short Squeeze ran his heart out at Windsor last month; he’ll be competitive today as long as he can overcome the track bias. He usually comes from well off the pace, however Pontefract suits more prominent runners.

Consistent Fire Ship is unbeaten over course and distance and has some creditable performances to his name this year: a fair third behind Top Notch Tonto when last seen, and an excellent 3rd in a hot Leopardstown Group 3. He’s hasn’t won since 2013, though.

Birdman has been a revelation this season. He’s now as highly rated as he has been back in his promising juvenile days. He deserves a shot at this race but I feel this could be too hot for him. The other 3yo in the field, Hail The Hero, will find this a tough assignment her, despite WFA in his favour.

Verdict: Whether the quick ground will hold up with rain falling right now, I’m not sure. But if it goes into the ground it shouldn’t inconvenience too many. However I feel Fire Ship is overpriced in this field. He loves it around this track, won’t mind the rain, and has been in good form. I don’t see why he is twice the price of Mondialiste. There isn’t much between them.

Fire Ship @ 8/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Palpitation ready to strike on Nursery debut

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Finally a winner last night, Mujasaam hacked up at Salisbury under a strong front-running ride. Could have been even better as Astley Hall ran a massive race but was beaten in a photo unfortunately. To the naked eye there was nothing that could differentiate him from the eventual winner, but I’ve to trust the judges here.

2.40 Carlisle: Nursery, Class 5, 5f

Open little Nursery with a strong favourite but I feel Palpitation is a capable rival. This Fast Company son has been gelded since his last run and that usually works out pretty well for this sire.

He showed a bit of promise in three maiden races, but is expected to do much better now switched into Handicap company. he is quite well bred, though his future should lie over a bit further. An opening mark of 65 is fair and first time cheek-pieces may offer some additional assistance.

Palpitation @ 9/2 Betfred – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Mujassam bound for a big run

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5.10 York: Nursery, Class 3, 5f

Astley Hall looks overpriced here if he could find back to the form he showed on his impressive debut run. That day he looked extremely green throughout, completely messing up the start but still was overcame that all to win well in a decent maiden.

He was disappointing in his two starts subsequently, but now dropped down to 5f again on quick ground should help on his nursery debut. An opening mark off 77 doesn’t look impossible.

He has been gelded since his last run There are positive sire stats for this kind of procedure and Richard Fahey often gets it right if it comes to geldings.

Astley Hall @ 16/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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8.15 Salisbury: Handicap, Class 4, 7f

Roger Varian has only one runner at Salisbury today and that looks significant. His Mujassam is an intriguing contender, dropping in class off a lowered mark with ground likely in his favour. He didn’t show too much in two starts this year but remains with potential.

A gelding now, this may help him to focus a bit better on his racing too. Kyllachy’s often improve as geldings and Varian has a positive track record for first time geldings too. He could go well tonight.

Mujassam @ 13/2 Betfred – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Preview – King George VI

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Ascot Grand Stand, by Florian Christoph

Will Golden Horn run? We don’t know yet. The ground is soft, and despite the fact that the sun is out, it won’t help to dry quickly enough. I suspect that the hot favourite won’t take up his chance here. But regardless of whether he is in or not, it should be an intriguing affair as not too many are suited by the conditions.

Well, Clever Cookie surely is. He’ll love every drop of rain in the ground. He is in top form, won two on the bounce and should have things the way he likes it. I think he is potentially overpriced, but also feel he may be tactically disadvantaged with his usual running style – he simply might get going too late. It could be difficult to peg back some others who are attempting more aggressive tactics.

I believe Snow Sky is a major runner here today, with or without Golden Horn. He stays further than 12 furlongs and might be actually better over two additional furlongs, but he proved his class in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot over this trip when he was very impressive to land it from the front.

He may not get the lead this time, but will surely be prominent nonetheless. That will enable him to kick on 3f out, turning for home. He has a bit of a change of gear, so may be able to put some lengths into the rest of the field at this stage. And one thing is assured – he’ll stay.

This Nayef son is a typical Sir Michael improver, he’s blooming this year. The ground of course is a question mark. His best performances came on a quick surface. However he used to win his maiden on bottomless ground with ease, so he is probably fine.

There aren’t too many others who appeal to me. Flintshire is a quality runner, but he’ll hate the ground. Eagle Top isn’t sure to enjoy it either. While Postponed remains one with potential but has never encountered these conditions before. Romsdal has yet to win on turf, though the filly Madame Chiang has course and distance form on soft ground as she was victorious at British Champions Day last year.

She is an intriguing contender. Track, trip and ground will suit. Her seasonal comeback run over shorter 10f in the Middleton Stakes wasn’t all that bad, however she hasn’t been seen since, which is a concern.

And what about Golden Horn – if he runs? Of course he’s the one to beat. His record speaks for itself and he has the vital weight for age allowance on his side. But the ground is a major worry. Yes, he won his maiden on good to soft, but he looked so exceptional on a fast surface – I’m worried.

Verdict: I’m prepared to take on Golden Horn in these conditions ans believe Snow Sky has a major chance. He shouldn’t mind the ground and tactically the race could pan out to perfection for him. He’s a big price.

Snow Sky @ 15/2 Betfred – 5pts Win

Ireland

Flight Risk can surprise again

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Jockey

3.10 Curragh: Minstrel Stakes (Group 3), 7f

Gordon Lord Byron could be hard to beat here. He has been in fine form lateley and finds perfect conditions at the Curragh. British raider Home Of The Brave won’t go down with a fight, though. He has shown some excellent form this year and seven furlongs looks his optimum. It remains to be seen how he acts on the ground.

Sovereign Debt was an impressive winner on Irish Derby Day here at the Curragh. That day everything fell into place for him. The drop to 7f will surely suit, though. Ramone is a tough mare but may need a stiffer test. Dark Emerald was progressive in Meydan, nonetheless a career best is required today.

Jim Bolger’s Flight Risk was a surprise winner of the Gladness Stakes back in April. This form has worked out very well, while the four year old colt has proven his class since then too. Some creditable efforts in Group company subsequently, rounded up with an unlucky runner-up effort in the Celebrations Stakes behind Sovereign Debt last month.

The race wasn’t run at a suitable pace for him, but turning for home he made good progress on the inside and looked to mount a big challenge, but got stuck on the rails with no room to go. Kevin Manning switched wide, which cost ground and momentum, yet Flight Risk flew home late.

Ground and trip will suit today. There should be a good pace ensured, and while it is not easy to give weight away, he is clearly in excellent form and can go close.

Flight Risk @ 16/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win