All posts by Florian Christoph

Photographer & Runner - lives in the land of rain.
United Kingdom

Saturday Selections: Michael’s Missile can score

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Naas

7.10 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Very hard to oppose Michael’s Missile who has found an excellent opportunity to score. He won here over course and distance last month, a form that works out extremely well, and he wasn’t disgraced subsequently in a big Handicap at Naas where he had not the best of starts and made a bit too much too early.

Back in the UK, he’s not here for a good day out, but to win. This field is poor and uncompetitive – he has every chance to win of his revised mark.

Michael’s Missile @ 2/1 Sportingbet – 10pts Win

Global Racing

Friday Selections: Golden opportunity for Dikta Del Mar

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Newsletter

3.10 Lingfield: Maiden Stakes, 1m 5f

Realistically there are only two horses in this race with a chance to win. That is obviously the short odds-on favourite Mr Cripps. His last form in a super hot Newbury maiden reads very strong and he has a prime chance if fit after a 3 month long lay-off, and if he takes to the All-Weather.

Second favourite Etibaar is an interesting alternative, though. He was quite a costly yearling, has a stellar pedigree but hasn’t lived up to it yet. He did okay in three maidens before moving into handicap company the last time. Blinkers fitted didn’t have the desired effect. He was way too keen.

These are off today. Connections used a little break to geld him which could have a huge impact given that his sire Kitten’s Joy has a tremendous record with his first time gelded sons. The switch to the All-Weather should also suit perfectly, given his US pedigree. Only slight concern is the trip.

At 4/1 I feel it is worth a nibble in this otherwise uncompetitive maiden. Mr Cripps may prove too good. But any weakness will be exploited by Etibaar who has a better chance to win than 20% in my book.

Etibaar @ 4/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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5.35 Tipperary: Abergwaun Stakes (Listed), 5f

The 3yo filly Dikta Del Mar must have a massive chance here. Unfortunately I realized this too late and the price is tumbling. Nonetheless 9/2 proves value given that she hasn’t been disgraced in a couple of hot races this year, following on from last seasons Listed success in France.

She clearly loves it soft and will appreciate these conditions today. I expect her to bounce back from a poor effort at Goodwood, where quick conditions didn’t suit. The drop into Listed class will help today, so will be the tons of weight she received all around.

Dikta Del Mar @ 9/2 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

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6.05 Tipperary: Class 1 Handicap, 5f

Ultra competitive race and I like a couple of these. But for price reasons I can’t ignore A Few Dollars More who is surely too big at 18/1. He wasn’t seen to best effect at the Curragh the last time but might be better judged when there is a bit of juice in the ground as happened on his penultimate start when he won a Cork sprint. This form works out very well.

He is down to this very same mark again, and while this here is a stronger race, he gets in off an absolute feather weight. My perception is that with the soft going likely to suit today, he can be better than his current mark off 76.

A Few Dollars More @ 18/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Light And Shade dangerous with headgear

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DSC_1062

3.30 Wolverhampton: Class 4 Handicap, 9f

A very competitive little race – you could easily make a case for each and everyone. However from a price point of view Light And Shade is overpriced in my book. He’s potentially well exposed compare to others, but that says he has the right form in the book and is likely to run to his mark.

What is interesting though is the fact that he is fitted with cheek-pieces for the first time. He has has a tendency of hanging as well as carrying his head high. So in addition to a noseband, he’ll be fitted with CP today.

He won really well on his penultimate start, overcoming all these issues and he wasn’t disgraced at all when last seen. Not all too well positioned, he stayed on late and it is not out of this world that he is capable of doing better and finding more improvement with the headgear potentially having a big impact.

In that respect it is noteworthy that Aqlaam offspring usually does extremely well with cheek-pieces.

Light And Shade @ 7/1 Coral – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Thursday Selections: Virile could be well in

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DSC_0947

20.15 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

This a poor affair as you would expect in this class but it is noteworthy that Mr. Donohoe brings a horse over from Ireland for this race. He has a history doing so and has been rather successful in recent years, so one would think there is a reason why Virile is going to post at Newcastle tonight.

The four year old gelding has been racing on the UK All-Weather a couple of times earlier in his career, with career best achieved at Wolverhampton when 2nd in a decent maiden behind a good winner. Since then he has been seen largely in Ireland but wasn’t up to his marks.

However he looked far more into in his last two starts when he travelled notably well for a long time. He has been dropped to a career lowest mark nonetheless and will have the additional benefit of the 7lb claim of an apprentice in the saddle. I believe he could be seriously well handicapped in this field today for this reason.

Virile @ 8/1 Coral – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Wednesday Selections: Man Of Harlech’s a Big Runner

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Wet Dundalk Polytrack

8.40 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m

Favourite Up In Lights is potentially very well handicapped on his debut in this company, and the weight for age allowance is a clear bonus. He may well hack up. But I believe there is massive value on Man Of Harlech, who could be a very potent threat here.

This will be the third run after a long break, during which he was gelded. He clearly needed his first run but was quite unlucky the next time at Sandown when poorly positioned and a clear run denied. However he finished very strongly with seemingly plenty left in the tank.

He drops in grade now, and this potentially easier opposition should help him to defy top weight. He is very nicely bred and comes from a family that does exceptionally well on the All-Weather. So the switch to this surface can be only in his favour today. At 9/2 he is an excellent alternative to the rather shortish favourite in my mind.

Man Of Harlech @ 9/2 Coral – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Tuesday Selections: Zhukova can win Cork feature

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Cork Racecourse

Good win for Harlequin Rock yesterday. Feels always good to get things right, as it doesn’t happen too often! Mass Rally looked to come storming home on the outside but faded away eventually. He needs more help from the handicapper these days. Katimavik was NR.

7.35 Ripon: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

This could be an excellent opportunity for the old boy Noble Storm to get back on the score sheet. The nine year old hasn’t been exactly close to winning this year but more often than not wasn’t disgraced nor far beaten.

He drops to a very handy mark now which should see him competitive in this grade, particular today with ground conditions sure to suit well.

Noble Storm @ 16/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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7.50 Chelmsford: Class 3 Handicap, 10f

The two fillies at the top of the market could be hard to beat here. Talawat of bottom weight will go very close if she gets the trip against this better opposition. Martlet makes more appeal as she is proven over track and trip.

However I feel Taaqah is overpriced here. She went close over a mile at Chelmsford earlier this year, when runner-up behind Boonga Roogeta. She hasn’t been seen to best effect in her last two starts but the return to the All-Weather may help. She steps up in trip and that is the factor which may see her improving a bit again.

On pedigree she has every chance to do so as a son of Arch out of a Gone West mare who has a stake in multiple St. Leger winner Leading Light.

Taaqah has only one maiden win to her name yet, and that over 6f. It’s is not given that she appreciates the new trip. But it’s possible. There aren’t too many in this field with a realistic chance on handicapping terms and therefore I believe she is a rather big price here.

Taaqah @ 16/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

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8.00 Cork: Give Thanks Stakes (Fillies’ Group 3), 1m 4f

This two times races filly Zhukova progressed nicely from her debut run when she landed a Navan maiden in fine style back in June. Trainer Dermot Weld was quite happy and was hoping she would make into a nice Stakes filly over further. Today is the chance.

She lacks experience in this field but is extremely well bred and should appreciate the step up in trip. With natural progression she can go close.

Zhukova @ 14/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Monday Selections: Mass can Rally home

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Naas

2.30 Nottingham: Class 5 Nursery, 1m

Money is floating in for Harlequin Rock and it’s easy to see why. This Rock Of Gibraltar son hasn’t shown anything in three maidens but will be very suited by the step up to 1m on his nursery debut. He gets into this race off a very low opening which may underestimate his potential.

First time gelded, which works well for sons of ROG, he is from a mediocre family, although his dam has produced horses that who have been competitive off mid-60 marks. Here’s a fair chance that Harlequin Rock is underestimated in this field.

Harlequin Rock @ 8/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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3.45 Ripon: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

A couple of these have a big shout but at the given prices veteran Mass Rally makes appeal. He’s slipping down to a realistic mark, in fact hasn’t been racing of such a lowly mark since 2012 when he won the Ayr Silver Cup off 94.

He is still competitive as he proved at York earlier this year. He has to bounce back today after a dismal run at Hamilton, but now down to a mark off 95 as well as dropping in class, he should be very competitive with softish conditions to suit.

Mass Rally @ 8/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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4.25 Naas: Conditions Race, 7f

Not too many make appeal, but Weld’s Katimavik could be well in here. He was an impressive scorer at Fairyhouse over seven furlongs last year, after which his trainer said this lad needs better ground. He was disappointing on his seasonal reappearance but made amends subsequently in a three-runner handicap when hanging tough against a mid-90 rated individual.

On that evidence the drop in trip should suit. Katimavik still had only four career starts and with trip & ground to suit he could be a good ten pounds better than his current rating which would give him a prime chance in this field.

Katimavik @ 5/1 Betfred – 5pts Win  

(Edit: Katimavik is a non-runner)

Global Racing

Piri Wango can land the Ahonoora

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Gordon Lord Byron

3.15 Chester: Queensferry Stakes (Listed), 6f

You can pick holes into any horse here, even the rather shortish favourite. Eastern Impact’s Royal Ascot performance sets obviously a very high standard, but earlier this season he wasn’t capable of winning a listed event. So while the drop in class is significant today, it doesn’t mean he’ll have an easy task.

With the rain falling, I like to give proven soft ground performer Canny Kool a chance here. He tries 6f for the first time and will have raise his game in order to feature. But he should be well suited by the trip on pedigree and may well be able to pull out more. He has a good draw and is usually up with the pace, which always helps at Chester.

Canny Kool @ 12/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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3.50 Chester: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Apostle need to have things fall inch right for him in order to win, as happened exactly one year ago when he landed this very same race. He is down to the very same mark today, hasn’t been disgraced in a very hot handicap lately and therefore should be in with a fine chance here.

The draw isn’t ideal and it appears to be a deep enough race, so chances are that he may not get the all clear run he needs. But despite the quality on offer in the field, not many are well handicapped, unlike Apostle.

Apostle @ 10/1 Bet365 – 5ps Win

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3.20 Galway: Ahonoora Handicap, 7f

A surprisingly lacklustre affair, with a clear lack of quality on offer. Only a handful of horses should be good enough to feature. That makes it easier to narrow down the field. Last years winner Baraweez ran well earlier this week at Festival and must have a prime chance off the same mark today. I can see why Hidden Oasis features prominently in the betting, but the step up in trip is a worry.

Beau Satchel won earlier this week and loves the track, so does old boy Pintura – both make plenty of appeal, but the money is coming in for Ger Lyons’ charge Piri Wango and there is a strong case to be made for him.

He is proven over course and distance, finished runner-up in the Topaz Mile last year and in good form lately. He’s the class act in the field with excellent Group form to his name, but that is also the reason why he has to carry top weight. It’s a tough ask but he performed well under big weights in the past and should love the conditions today.

Seven furlongs is as sharp a trip as he likes it these days, but blinkers and a good draw will clearly help to see him early in position. I believe he has a prime chance to go close today.

Piri Wango @ 7/1 Bet465 – 5pts Win

South Africa

Preview: Champions Cup

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fuvleg

4.05 Greyville: Champions Cup (Grade 1), 1m 1f

Realistically a two horse race, South Africa’s two top drawers meet once again. The score is 3-1 in favour of Legislate. and the one time Futura got the better of him, was in the Queen’s Plate earlier this year when Legislate was not right as we know.

Legislate fought back form his illness, won the Gold Challenge on his return comfortably, beating Legislate in third, for whom it was merely a July prep run, though. Futura ran with loads of credit in the big one subsequently, given the massive weight he had to shoulder. While Legislate surprisingly popped up in one of the hottest sprints of the year where he finished an excellent 3rd.

The trip today should suit both down to the grounds and it will be interesting to see who is the better one. Both are exceptional horses but Legislate always strikes me as the “special one”. He may have a tactical advantage today too, he can make all from the front without a problem and use his superior speed to kick on when it matters.

At the given prices, the value clearly lies with Legislate.

Legislate @ 5/2 Coral – 10pts Win

United Kingdom

Betting: Saturday Selections

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Legatissimo

Been some tough few days but Malabar steered the ship back into the right direction. Her 10/1 win was badly needed but as always in racing, one big winner, and you’re back in the game. Last day of Glorious Goodwood today – hopefully ending it on a high note.

2.35 Goodwood: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 4f

I like the profile of Melodious here. This progressive filly is beautifully bred for 12f and showed excellent improvement this year. She should come into her own with time so may have not shown her best yet. Unlucky to be piped on the line at Newbury the other day, she tries this trip only for the second time and remains on a fairly decent mark.

Melodious @ 12/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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3.10 Goodwood: Nassau Stakes (Group 1), 1m 2f

Burned my fingers in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh when Diamondsandrubies held on to win against Legatissimo. I believe the Wachman filly can turn the table today. She had a tactical disadvantage at the Curragh and is the better filly of the pair.

I was inclined to leave this race as it is, as there are some other good fillies in the field too with French Oaks winner Star Of Seville or English Oaks third Lady of Dubai. But Legatissimo is now available at 5/2, which I didn’t expect and deem as too big.

Legatissimo @ 5/2 Betfred – 10pts Win