This intriguing handicap looks a wide open race to my eyes. The Hangman heads the market and he is a worthy favourite, no doubt. A Grade 1 winner as a juvenile, he had his fair share of problems in recent years, but found back to something close of his best when winning a MR 92 Handicap as top weight over 1.400m last month. The Hangman took advantage of a career lowest mark that day and proved himself to be still in love with the game. This form entitles him to be a big runner today, and the step up to 1.600m shouldn’t be an issue. However a 7lb hike in the mark is something he has to overcome and currently trading a 9/4 chance he isn’t more than only a fair price.
Christmas Handicap winner Fourth Estate will enjoy to be back at his beloved Greyville after two below par efforts at other tracks. Due to the big win in December, he is still on a career highest mark and after 46 career starts it looks unlikely that he can improve any further. Over this CD he rates a fair runner, but others make more appeal.
Candy Moon was fourth in the Christmas Handicap but encountered a troubled run. He stayed on very strongly once in the clear and a 2.5kg swing in the weights with the winner gives him the edge over that particular rival. He found 2.000m a bit too far subsequently, but the drop to a mile at Greyville should certainly suit. Candy Moon is two from three over CD and while he is another one who has to produce a career best, his penultimate effort gives him a strong chance.
Classy Uncle Tommy runs consistently well and lives up to his rating, despite the fact that he has always big weights to shoulder. Up in class today, he has a huge 62kg to overcome and that could simply be too much asked. Royal Zulu Guard and Stolen Destiny are improved sorts lately. They should be competitive but also have to prove that they are up to their new career highest marks. Auction King and King Neptune are not out of this by any means. Though they don’t strike as particularly well handicapped either and more is needed here.
Verdict: If The Hangman can overcome the hike in the mark and continues to find back to his formerly brilliant best, then he has an ideal opportunity to score here over preferred course and distance. It is not a straightforward ask though and I take an chance with gradually improving Candy Moon who loves this track and trip and was a bit unlucky lately. With a clear run he should be a very big runner with conditions in favour.
Yep, it’s hard to believe, but it’s March again and Cheltenham is literally just around the corner! Next week were’ already discussing the big races, fallen favourites and hopefully some surprising & heart-warming stories. It’s a shame, I can’t make it this year. I broke my Cheltenham maiden tag last year, and it was absolutely amazing. Tuesday with club enclosure was the perfect race day. Top class racing action, big crowd but not that it felt uncomfortable, and some lovely warm spring sun shining down into this natural amphitheatre . It’ll be a shaky stream at work this time, and replays on TV afterwards (no need to cry for me – I’ll be going to the Grand National instead!).
The formerly in Ireland trained Designs On Rome has rapidly become one of the best middle distance horses in the world. Since he left Pat Flynn’s yard to start a new career in Hong Kong, he has nothing but improved. Now a three time Group 1 winner in overseas, he’ll be one of the favourites for the Sheema Classic on Meydan’s World Cup night. And rightly so. He won the prestigious Group 1 Hong Kong Gold Cup in very taking style on Sunday morning UK time. Having it all to do turning for home, he had come from the widest travelling welloff the pace for most parts of the race, but was simply too good for his rivals, mainly old foe Military Attack.
It was Gauteng Guineas day at Turffontein, South Africa, on Saturday. You may have seen my previews for both the fillies’ and boys’ races. They promised allot and didn’t disappoint, though it was slightly surprising to see both races won by very convincing winners – that says it wasn’t the usual bunched up finished! Siren’s Call took the Fillies Guineas in style of a really good horse. She’s a hardly filly with the touch of class. Harry’s Son overcame all troubles in preparation to the big race and proved far too good for the opposition in the boys’s Guineas. Last seasons champion two year old will now try to go on to win the Triple Crown before he’ll be on the move to Dubai for next years Carnival.
Gauteng Guineas – Winner: Harry’s Son:
Gateng Fillies Guineas – Winner: Siren’s Call:
It’s not news to readers of this blog that I‘m a big fan of Bob Baffert’s colt Dortmund – who is my pick for the Kentucky Derby. It was pleasing, though also kind of odd to a certain extent,to hear Baffert talking about Dortmund, following a workout at Santa Anita: “His last two works have really been his best works. I think the light finally went on. I think he’s finally figuring out how he’s supposed to do it.” Mind you Baffert is talking about a Grade 1 winner, who is currently trading as the co-favourite for the Derby. One has to wonder, if Dortmund has been able to win all these races before without ‘the light on’, how much more improvement could potentially come from this extremely good looking colt?!
Eye-Catcher of the Weekend
Sundays card at Geyville, South Africa, was largely low grade stuff. With the exception of a fair Graduation plate, which saw 2013 champion two year old Kochka back on track for his second run after a long injury related lay-off. The four year old colt ran on well on his comeback run and has clearly grown physically into a brute of a horse. He was the clear favourite today to beat rivals below his natural class and for that reason he was our banker of the day. As expected, Kochka finished the job, even though it was slightly more thrilling than I as a punter would have like it. Which was very much the down to the very confident and light ride the big colt was given. Kochka itself is a horse to keep in mind when he steps up in trip again. 1.200m is too short against better opposition, but he is clearly back and should be a force over a mile.
My eye-catcher of the week ran in the very same race. The three year old Saratoga Dancer Saratoga Dancer, officially rated a low 78 rated, finished a fine third, less than two lengths beaten by Kochka, who is 105 rated, and runner-up Nineteen Fourteen who is a fair measure stick at 88 and clearly ran to form. Saratoga Dancer only received 3.5kg and 0.5kg respectivelly by these much higher rated individuals, yet he was able to finish so close. He is still lightly raced, was back from a break today and probably needs further. Not to mention that he got an odd ride, was never touched and still finished as close as he did. Let’s see what the handicapper does next But I suspect that Saratoga Dancer, once up in trip again, will be a big runner regardless of where he pops up next. .
This looks a much more open contest than the the boys’ Guineas in my mind, with moire unexposed runners and plenty of guesswork to do. However we have a very good favourite at the head of the market with Same Jurisdiction. She was a top class juvenile, won a big Grade 1 last summer and had an excellent prep last month in Grade 3 company. She rates a worthy favourite, though the downside is her rather poor draw and the fact that she had bleeding problems in the past. A lack of run at this track also counts as a negative. She deserves to be favourite, however is too short in the betting in my mind.
Progressive Smart Call was utterly impressive in her prep, though this here is much tougher today. If she can improve again, she is right up there with the best. So should be Sean Tarry’s Siren’s Call. A hardy filly, she finished a well respected 4th in the Dingaans and her prep win in a big sales race over shorter rates top form. If she stays the trip in a truly run race, she must be a big danger.
Never make the mistake to dismiss Turffontein top trainer Tarry’s second or even third string. His other runners Tamaanee and Bichette may be big prices in the betting today, but could spring easily a surprise. The former one the slightly more exposed already, has form over 1.600m and won against older. A good draw will help. She is an interesting price, though I restrict myself to one bet in this race and I’ve to admit that Bichette is the one that looks hugely overpriced here. She is very lightly raced, won over shorter a good handicap and performed well in her prep in Grade 3 company over 1.450m. She isn’t the quickest but is gutsy,very well bred and looks big with plenty of scope.
Her pedigree points to a mile and the step up to this trip will certainly suit her, so should the testing standside track. She has a good draw and will probably use this to race in a handy position as she prefers to do. She won’t go down with a fight I suspect and while it remains to be seen if she can make the step up into this hot top level company, she has the right looks, pedigree and progressive form. From a betting point of view, Bichette is the underestimated runner in this field.
Other fillies, like Grade 3 winner Sensible Lover or De Kock’s Pine Princess can’t be underestimated either. The fillies Guineas looks open, but very interesting and should provide spectacular action.
This yeas Gauteng Guineas shapes as quite an intriguing contest where some rather exposed and seasoned runners are going to meet a bunch of unexposed, fresh contenders. Fitness levels, stamina and class are question marks for most runners in the line-up though we have right on top of the queue two extremely classy individuals – I’m talking about Harry’s Sun and Unparalleled of course. They are standing head and shoulders above the rest of the field, which is clearly reflected by heir respective official ratings.
Harry’s Sun interestingly has already Guineas form – he was a very respectable runner-up in the Cape Guineas behind top drawer Act Of War. Harry’s Sun was the leading two year old last season due to his success in the Grade 1 Champion Stakes. He followed up with another graded success however was subsequently beaten in the in the Dingaans in very convincing fashion by no one else than Unparalleled.
One could argue that he didn’t run to form that day, but one could also say that the winner was simply the better horse. He was better in the mentioned runner-up effort in the Cape Guineas, which overall rounded up a highly successful season for Harry’s Sun. He hasn’t been seen since though, and the lack of a prep run must be considered a worry. It is obvious that the preparation for the big race didn’t got to plan, yet he is currently trading as the 11/4 favourite. We have to trust his fitness, though no doubt he has the class to be a big runner if fully fit.
Harry’s Sun has the luxury of a generous draw, much in contrast to his *potentially* main rival Unparalleled. The Lateral son is literally drawn in the car park (18) and that could complicate things for obvious reasons. Nonetheless there is still plenty to like about his chance and a I’ve to admit that I’m a huge fan of his horse. I’m particularly fond of his excellent cruising speed and ability to produce an instant turn of foot. The draw is an issue, but he has a top jockey on board and he showed himself a very versatile runner if it comes to tactics.
So more than anything in a race like this, it’ll count for allot to settle well and be relaxed in the early parts, as well as to get the 1.600m trip. All those things are ensured with Unparalleled. He has a proven track record, has been progressive towards the end of last season and has been able to make a successful transition from handicaps into graded company, culminating in his emphatic Dingaans (1m) triumph. What I like about Unparalleled is the fact that he had a two month break, came back and impressed in his prep run over slightly shorter (1.450m). He’ll be bang on for the Guineas.
Mike De Kock has to be respected as always. He saddles two runners: Anjaal and Mutamakkin. The latter one should appreciate the trip and had a good prep run. He finished second behind Belong To Me and a neck in front to Unparalleled in the Grade 3 Tony Ruffel Stakes over 1.450m. More is required here around though, as he has much more weight to carry this time. His stable mate Anjaal was an excellent third in the Champion Stakes last year, however was slightly disappointing on his seasonal reappearance. He should strip fitter this time and has the potential to run really well in first time blinkers.
Sean Tarry’s Zambezi River hasn’t done much wrong in his career. A lightly raced winner of three races, who found the Cape Guineas too hot, had a fine prep run over 1.200m in a big sales race recently. He looks more like a sprinter than a miler, though, and may find this trip too far once again. In contrast Tarry’s second runner French Navy would certainly appreciate a real stamina test. He has fair form over 1.800m lately and if they go a mad pace, he’d have a chance.
Belong To Me was a fine Grade 3 winner recently, beating Unparalleled and Mutamakkin in a tight finish. The question is how much improvement has he left. Also the 1.450m trip of the recent was probably as far as he wants it. The booking of Anton Marcus for Precursor looks significant. The Captain Al son should be much better than his last two forms. He tries 1.600m for the first time, having only contested over sprinting trips. While he may have a fair chance to stay the trip on pedigree, it is much more a question mark if he’ll be able settle early on. The Captains Tune did well against older horses already and might be the pace angle here. if he gets an easy lead he could be dangerous. Normally he shouldn’t be good enough to win, though.
Verdict: There are a couple of bigger prices in the field that could well improve and run very well. But given all we know, it is hard to look beyond the first two in the market. Harry’s Son is a classy individual and if he is fit, he’ll be right there when it matters. The lack of recent run is a concerning fact though. This could open the door for Unparalleled. I was very surprised to see a price as big as 11/2 available. Analysing the race this morning without knowing the prices, I thought he would be my selection if it is about the most likely, though knowing how obvious his claims are, he’l be probably a very short and unattractive price for me. To see him as big as he is, I believe it is way too big. I expected 5/2, and can’t let 11/2 go. Yes, he has to overcome the widest draw and that needs to be reflected in the price. Yet he has the best form to offer, had a perfect prep run, loves track and trip and looks a class act the way he is travelling as well as quickening in his races.
The dark horses are the De Kock runners. Both could have more to offer and are interesting in their own right. Particularly Anjaal is intriguing. However his prep was utterly disappointing, despite the long lay-off you would have expected him to do better against a bunch of low grade handicappers. Nonetheless with first time handicappers, he is a horse that attracts me, but I can’t get over it to back him. So I gonna stick with Unparalleled in the hope he jumps well, settles well, is well positioned when the field turns for home and if so, I believe he’ll be very hard to stop.
Edit – Saturday, 28/02/15, 12.30: I do remain confident in Unparalleled, who is now available at even 6/1. However monitoring the betting, I can’t help but feel not attracted by the huge price for Precursor. Now available at 25’s, I have to get on that as it is simply way too big. The stamina question remain not insignificant, but on pedigree he has a fair chance. And from a good draw, I can see Marcus placing his mount in a handy position, ensuring that he settles and relaxes over this new trip, without pulling all his chances away. Marcus is a top man if it comes to that and as said before, his booking is a significant boost. – Precursor @ 25/1 Sportingbet – 5pts win
WOW! What a week it has been – betting wise I mean! It’s a funny old game sometimes, isn’t it? Yes, It’s been a tough time for me in recent weeks if it comes to betting – I’ve been previewing races, shared my thoughts on tactics, analysed and assessed the chances of oh so many horses and was even bullish enough to published my selections here on a regular basis. But it just didn’t seem to happen for my selections. They either ran no race whatsoever, or – albeit only occasionally – hit the crossbar. Though getting the head in front when it really mattered? Nope, no way!
But that must surly be the beauty of horse racing and particularly betting on this sport: Things can change so quickly! One or two winners and suddenly your back in the profit – even after suffering a long losing run!
I encountered certainly a pretty gruelling losing run, indeed. 20! Yes, twenty losing selections on the bounce! That’s allot. However, I didn’t really think about too much and simply did my job. For me it is all about the value in the price and the profit in the long term. A losing run doesn’t mean that the bets haven’t been good. In fact 95% of all my bets placed this year are ones I would actually do again f I ‘d be in the same situation. I simply have to believe in my value. Sooner or later the winners would eventually fly in again. Otherwise it would be pointless, wouldn’t it?
It’s about confidence in the own abilities and having the right mindset. I’m certainly not the best punter in the world. Nor would I claim to be a particularly great form analyst. But there are things I’m good in and I’ve got skills that enable me to turn my betting into profit – in the long term.
That hasn’t been always the case in the past, but one has to learn from mistakes – or not?! In betting terms there can be quite costly mistakes. Though I believe I’m at a point where I learned from the past, and where know what I can do and also what doesn’t work for me. The believe in my skills ensured that I ‘knew’ the big winner is just around the corner. And so It happened – Finally, this week. Things kicked off with The Hangman in South Africa. A juicy 10/1 winner. It got even better with Flying The Flag at Meydan today, who landed a competitive Handicap at 7/1. The cherry on the cake was gutsy Chookie Royale who ran his rivals into the ground at Chelmsford and was a 13/2 selection this morning. Suddenly it’s all back in profit for the month!
I usually don’t fancy “shorties” (which doesn’t mean I’d exclude them completely – far from it – you can find value in hot favourites as well) and most of my bets are in the price range of at least 5/1 and upwards. It’s absolutely normal to encounter losing streaks if you’re betting on these kind of prices. However if I have value – theoretically a bet with a better chance of winning than the odds suggest – then I’ll turn things into profit in the long term. It simply will happen. I say that without any arrogance, knowing how much I “invested into learning the game” over the years. But saying that with confidence, while knowing I do make this game pay. However, one thing is most important than anything else. First of all I’ll always be a fan of the sport!
Didn’t tip many winners in recent days, but The Hangman went in yesterday at Vaal at advised 10/1 odds! He clearly found something back of his former best and was a rather easy winner in the end. Because it worked yesterday, I gonna stick with South Africa today again
The 1.40 on a rather low grade Kenilworth card looks set up for one of the three year olds to take. The older horses are largely exposed and didn’t show anything that instils confidence in them, neithert hat they’d be able to produce anything better than the level they have performed to so far.
Favourite Sail For Gold looks pretty short though, given the fact that he had nine career starts already without looking all that progressive. He won a maiden race over a mile on his penultimate run and performed with credit on handicap debut and he may have still a bit more to offer dropping to 1.400m, but for all of that he is a good deal too short. Around Not Across makes more appeal on his Handicap debut after winning over 1.200m a maiden in fine form. Opening mark looks fair and stepping up in trip may well suit on only his fourth career start. However he is also a pretty short price.
Fire Master looks a pretty big price in comparison. He is also still lightly raced, won a maiden over 1.200m in good style and followed up with a strong performance in a MR77 Handicap stepping up to a mile, when he was less than two lengths beaten in third in the end. He was disappointing subsequently, but something was amiss in the latest and if he can reproduce his penultimate run, he must be in with a big chance as he is dropping in class today and is the highest rated individual here. He could have still plenty of improvement left, dropping to more suitable 1.400m should work in his favour. The downside is that he has 61.5kg to shoulder which is massive obviously.
But he is not giving too much weight away to the other 3yo’s which are all on big weights here due to the fact that is actually only a MR72 and the older horses a group of poor individuals. On balance, he should be a good deal shorter in the betting in my mind.
A quick trip to South Africa today or the feature Handicap on the Vaal card – a very competitive looking MR92 Handicap. Many runners are of interest here, but I can’t let the top weight go unbacked at a pretty huge price. That is because The Hangman is clearly the class act in this field.
One has to remember that the five year old is a former winner of the big Grade 1 Champion Stakes! He hasn’t been in the winners circle since a Grade 2 triumph back in December 2012, though he was a good third behind subsequent Guineas runner-up Forest Indigo (who was that day then only denied by Triple Crown winner Louis The King) last February.
Since then he hasn’t shown too much. However his second start after rest tomorrow should see him in much better light given that he drops a good deal in class right in higher end of Handicaps. Trip should suit perfectly and rated a career lowest now, he must rate a big chance if he can regain something of his former best.
2.15 Vaal – MR 92 Handicap: The Hangman at 10/1 Sportingbet – 5pts win
Hype – a word, when associated with horses, then often with a negative perception. This is because hyped horses often don’t do what everyone expects them to do. They don’t live up to the hype and more often than not their names are quickly forgotten again. Happens all the time. Nothing new.
The more it is astounding what South Africa’s Futura has done since he has been hyped to win the countries most prestigious race – the Durban July – last summer. Without ever having won or even contested a a race at the highest level, he was the focus of some huge hype. His ante-post price slashed to only a fraction of it, he went off as one of the favourites on the day of the July.
He didn’t win. He finished ‘only’ third. Still a remarkable achievement considering that he didn’t have the run of the race that day. He didn’t quite live up to the hype, but he proved to be a pretty good racehorse. Since then, Futura hasn’t looked back Soon he won a deserved first Grade 1, and after a well earned break he started into a new season with a brilliant success in South Africa’s most important race over 1.600m, the Queen’s Plate.
Eventually Futura bagged his third Grade 1 victory yesterday, when he landed the prestigious J&B Met, the countries Premier 10f race, and in its importance only overshadowed by the Durban July. Futura, the second favourite behind last years Triple Crown winner Louis The King, travelled like a dream throughout, and once the home straight opened up, jockey Bernard Fayd’Herbe had only to press the button at the right time…. and whoosh off the went to win the big race! Futura produced an instant turn of foot, flying home to the line. That was easy! That was breathtaking! The world on his feet now, Futura is still a young horse with so much more to come. He truly has lived up to the hype. He’s a superstar!
One of the biggest race days of the South African racing calendar kicks off with the Cape Derby, which historically throws up some legendary winners. Last year it was Legislate, who moved on to win the Daily News and of course the Durban July, which in turn brought him the honour of becoming the 2014 horse of the year. Potentially we have a similar star on our hands in this years renewal, the question is only who is it? Checking the betting, this looks a one-horse race. But is it?
Well, Act Of War, currently trading a 1/5 favourite to land the Derby, looks certainly the real deal as he’s going for seven in a row today! The son of legendary sire Dynasty was only beaten on his racecourse debut, and then only by the narrowest of margins. Since then he never looked back, nicked in a couple of Graded races, with his biggest triumph to date, a decisive victory in the Cape Guineas. All those forms have also worked out very strongly, with plenty of subsequent winners. He looks right now a world class miler. Can he take this form to the next level over an additional two furlongs? That is the main question. Being a son of Dynasty surly helps, so he has enough stamina on his sire side for obvious reasons. Small doubts coming from his dam side though, with that line effectively never having anything produced over further than a mile. So far Act Of War looked special over trips ranging from 1.200m to 1.600m. He’ll be hard to beat if he’s taking well to the longer distance, that is for sure.
Realistically, there is only one real danger for Act Of War in this field , and that one is coming of course from Mike De Cock. His lightly raced Ertijaal is equally as exciting a colt as it gets. He had only three starts to date after having an injury troubled 2yo old career, and has been rather rushed to get here. He had three starts in the last two month, and one has to see how the takes this amount of racing. However he has been rapidly improving all the same.
Ertijaal
He was far too good on debut and second start, winning by a culminating 16 lengths those two races. Stepping into Listed company earlier this month, he turned on things in the final furlong to get up on the line. He was always going to win once in full flight and finished this task nicely. He looked green an immature all the same though, and will have learned plenty. He’s a nice, scopy colt who has already proven his stamina over 2.000m and going back to this trip today, will be a bonus, since he is bred for middle-distance.
Verdict: It is not worth to look anywhere else, trying to find the winner of this race. The rest of the field should simply not be good enough and it would be a major surprise to see any of those go even close. It seems rather a lottery to determine who else could make the frame. So concentrating on the two fancied runners makes sense. That says I’m going to have a nibble on Ertijaal. Simply for the reason that he has plenty of improvement left in him on what is only his fourth start. With a steep learning curve, and a trip to suit perfectly, he should be a close match for hot favourite Act Of War, as long as he takes the recent starts well. That says, Act Of War looks a special horse and if he stays the trip, will not be beaten. But odder things have happened in racing than a proven star miler fading over the additional two furlongs.
A quick trip to South Africa today or the feature Handicap on the Vaal card – a very competitive looking MR92 Handicap. Many runners are of interest here, but I can’t let the top weight go unbacked at a pretty huge price. That is because The Hangman is clearly the class act in this field.
One of the biggest race days of the South African racing calendar kicks off with the Cape Derby, which historically throws up some legendary winners. Last year it was Legislate, who moved on to win the Daily News and of course the Durban July, which in turn brought him the honour of becoming the 2014 horse of the year. Potentially we have a similar star on our hands in this years renewal, the question is only who is it? Checking the betting, this looks a one-horse race. But is it?
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