The 2024 Betfair Chase looks an intriguing affair and could evolve around how the pace develops in the first half, given the likely deep ground, with all the additional rain that’s falling.
Possible pace angle The Real Whacker showed excellent early season form three weeks ago when he won the Charlie Hall Chase thanks to a brave performance and a strong finish.
We know he likes to go from the front, although he can follow as well. That versatility could prove crucial in a race where some others may or may not want to go forward as well.
I have slight doubts whether only three weeks after such a huge run he can back it up in a strong field over a this trip in deep ground, especially if the pace is hot early on. Everything needs to fall right for him to win.
For all that, he’s an intriguing price to possibly find out with some small money, if they don’t press him early, he may have enough in the tank to stay in front for quite a while.
Bravemansgame has never quite looked the same horse he was in that brilliant 2023 season. Today fitted with blinkers, 2nd time after a wind operation, he’s hard to trust today – although Paul Nicholls has done it before, lest we forget the magic Kauto Star produced in this very race.
Ahoy Senor got the racing bubble talking after his recent seasonal reappearance – for all the wrong reasons, given the ride he received on the day, not quite giving him the best opportunity to win.
Up in trip will suit today, he should be okay on the ground and will strip fitter for the recent run. He’s not one to trust with your life, and I can see him struggling with his jumping if this turns into a proper test from early on.
Without the rain Hewick would have been a serious contender today. I quite liked his Down Royal return and this track will suit. But all his best form is on better ground. Hence he’s 14/1+ in the betting, and rightly so.
Exciting second-season chaser Grey Dawn is a fair favourite today. Progressive as a novice, he has shown he handles deep ground, has form over 3 miles and could see his King George and Gold Cup prospects improve significantly with a strong performance today.
The fact he’s only raced twice over 3 miles and never beyond yet is a question mark for me. He could well be capable, but he’s a short enough price to find out, and not good value in my book, for all that if he does get the trip in these conditions he’s certainly the one to beat.
Returning 2023 Betfair Chase winner Royale Pagaille has been only sighted once in the meantime – that was in January when he jumped badly and fell in the Cotswold Chase. He won this as as a fresh horse twelve months ago, so the absence isn’t a negative per se.
This course and distance and the deep ground is obviously what he loves, given his 4-3-1 record. You simply can’t deny that Royale Pagaille is a different horse here.
On the other hand, he’s a 10-year-old now. And younger legs may outrun him, ultimately. If he’d be a 6/1 chance I could be tempted. At 10/3 it’s not a bet I like to make.
I find it hard to fancy Gold Tweet, who would be a disappointing winner for the class of this race. Capodanno may prefer better ground over this longer trip, and isn’t one to fancy, either.
Limerick Lace progressed nicely over fences in the last two seasons, culminating in her victory in the Mares’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
She didn’t have the best of days in the Grand National subsequently, but there are valid excuses, and ultimately, she still managed to finish a gallant 10th, given all the things that went wrong there.
The mare clearly thrives in deep ground and could be a real danger toward the end of the race today, if she’s still in touch. She has yet to prove that she’s truly homer over 3 miles plus, although her Troytown runner-up performance gives hope.
She can be a bit sketchy jumping wise, and that’s a danger. If they go hard up front, and she gets too far behind, jumping poorly, it’ll be game over soon. At the same time, if they start racing from early on, her more patient running style could prove vital in the long home straight at Haydock.
From a price perspective, with the upside the progressive mare has, ground okay, trip possible okay, and the pace scenario possibly playing into her hands, she’s a nice bet that has still some juice left in the price.
Selections: 7pts win – Limerick Lace @ 8/1 SM 3pts win – The Real Whacker 15/1 SM
Not much pace in this race, that could play natural front-runner Jumeira Vision into his hands, who won’t mind getting an easy lead on his own.
The gelding impressed last month over this course and distance when he led for most of the race, setting a hot pace, with a trio of horses closely following on his heels.
He kept going nicely, while they fell away in the second half of the race, and kept on for a decent 4th place finish, outrunning his 28/1 price tag.
This was a serious performance and suggests this stiffer test over a mile at Newcastle could really suit, given on the AW his best came over a bit further.
He won well last November over 9.5f at Wolverhampton off 4lb higher (also career-best speed rating) and earlier this year on turf over 8.5f off his current 58 rating.
If today doesn’t work out he still has the option to drop down to an easier grade, and remains of high interest, given all his wins came in class 6 in the past.
But with the CD and pace possibly to suit, in an open contest, Jumeira Vision should have a proper chance to out run his price once again, at the very least.
Auguste Rodin sets a very high standard in the King George – if on a going day. He’s the right favourite, and hard to knock on his 2024 form.
Somewhat of an enigma last year, this season he improved nicely from his seasonal reappearance at the Curragh, to land the Group 1 POW at this venue last month in fine style.
Two performances achieving a 100+ speed rating back-to-back as well – clearly on decent ground Auguste Rodin is a superstar. With the pace and race likely to be run in his favour, with his stablemates, including high-class Luxembourg likely to to move forward, he should be in an ideal position when the fields turns for home.
One could argue 6/4 is a pretty fair price, given nearly everything will be in his favour today. It’s not my type of price, but I think you could back far worse shots at these short prices.
Saying that, there’s some decent opposition to beat, albeit, they all have their work cut out, given none of them enjoys the luxury of two pacemakers helping their cause.
Rebel’s Romance is the closest rival in the betting. I don’t he’s good enough to beat Auguste Rodin, though. His best form comes away from home, and he never achieved a Group 1 speed rating on turf so far.
That’s perhaps controversial to say, given he won two Group 1 races this year already. And those were competitive ones at Meydan and Hong Kong. At 7/2 I see zero value in back him, nonetheless.
The filly Bluestocking looks progressive as she matures. Her Pretty Polly win last month was a superb piece of form. Can she translate this type of performance to fast ground and 12 furlongs? If so, she’d be a serious danger.
Middle Earth, so far in her career, hasn’t shown that she’s Group 1 class. Duabi Honour has, and he could outran a big price for a place. Although, his very best form comes over 10 furlongs.
To call Luxembourg, a most recent Group 1 Coronation Stakes winner, a pace maker is probably harsh. He’ll run on merit, no doubt, and is a fair each-way shout at current prices. I do believe he’s best over 10 furlongs, on the other hand, and may be outstayed for win purposes.
There no question that the only 3-year-old colt in the race, Sunway, is tremendously overpriced. 17/1+ on the exchanges is obviously a bonkers price.
Saying that, to start with a negative: his draw an likely position in the race are massive negatives. He’ll likely be held up and will have plenty to do once the field turns for home. His challenge may come too late.
Nonetheless, at this price I can’t leave him unbacked. There’s too much juice in the these odds, for various reasons.
For one: His 108 speed rating achieved in the Irish Derby is the best on offer in this field this season. I believe the Curragh Classic was a strong renewal, and the form will stand the test of time.
Further to that, he achieved that brilliant runner-up performance in less than ideal circumstances. Coming from off the pace, he had a lot to do, didn’t get the best run through, and still finished the fastest over the last three furlongs, thanks to a rapid final furlong.
That run demonstrates his class but also his possibly vulnerability, certainly over this trip, given the way he’s ridden over 12 furlongs. From his #7 draw today most likely he’ll be ridden in similar fashion.
The hope is that they go hard up front and that James Doyle can make progress from halfway out to swing around the bend for a clear run not further back than midfield to unleash a turn of foot, that seems present, especially on better ground, to give Sunway a fair chance to win.
10pts win – Sunway @ 17/1
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7.15 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
This looks a superb chance for Sir Oliver to score as he drops down in class again, having lost another 2lb of his mark and gets the added bonus of solid 3lb claiming Christian Howarth in the saddle.
Sir Oliver has ran well enough lately, having finished a gallant 3rd over this course and distance in June, when not ideally placed, in a hot 0-75 Handicap off 3lb higher than today.
He was too keen the next two times back over 7 furlongs, although, also harshly judged in better class, especially most recently at Ascot in a strong class 4 contest.
Down to class 5, where he enjoys a 9-3-4 record and 3-1-2 ground over 6 furlongs on on decent to fast ground, he looks well handicapped in this race today. Albeit competitive in nature, and the #1 draw not quite ideal, the pace scenario shapes well enough for him to cross over quickly to the far rail.
So with fast ground, trip and track to suit, in an easier race, and having shown form lately, Sir Oliver could be hard to beat today.
This weekend is always one of my favourite racing weekends of the year – the Durban July, Eclipse Stakes and the German Derby. As a racing fan it’s glorious.
The pick of the lot for me personally is the July. My favourite flat race in the entire international racing calendar. Such an intriguing puzzle to solve, being the Grade 1 Handicap it is, bringing the Classic generation and the best of the older horses together.
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3.35 Sandown: Group 1 – Eclipse Stakes, 1m 2f
All the excuses made for City Of Troy’s poor showing in the Guineas seemed spot on as the hype turned real when the son of Justify demolished the Derby field at Epsom.
It was one of the most impressive Derby performances I’ve seen, undoubtably. He had to overcome a less than ideal #1 draw and had to come further back than you would have wanted. He still managed to win – not just win, he sprinted home in the closing stages, compared to all his rivals.
Stamina clearly came to the fore as he outstayed all his main rivals thanks to a strong, sustained effort from four furlongs out. He was a different horse to the one seen at Newmarket, where he never seemed happy at all.
In this years renewal of the Eclipse City Of Troy is the outstanding favourite, with his main rival in the market having finished 8+ lengths behind him at Epsom.
Saying that, Sandown over 10 furlongs poses a completely different test to the Derby run at quirky Epsom. No question, City Of Troy likely has all the tools to succeed here as well. But there is that nagging doubt in my mind, given what we saw at Newmarket.
The fast early pace seemed to take him off his feet that day, more than anything. Whereas at Epsom, it wasn’t an overly taxing gallop, and he had plenty of time to settle and eventually relax.
Given his stable mate Hans Andersen will likely move forward and then tries to set the ideal tempo, it could go all just perfectly to plan… unless the likes of Ghostwriter or perhaps See The Fire spoil the party.
They could press for the lead as well. Both can be quite keen certainly Ghostwriter enjoys going forward forward, while See The Fire, keen over a mile, may want to get on with things over this new trip. Surely both wouldn’t want a sedate pace, and leave it up to Aiden O’Brien’s pace maker to decide their fate.
If there’s a a bit of a pace battle early on, and as a result over this shorter trip City Of Troy may not have the luxury of relaxing early on, I can see him being vulnerable. But only then. No doubt, the rain has helped and enhanced his overall chances.
The aforementioned Ghostwriter – fourth in the 2000 Guineas and the French Derby is an intriguing runner. He’s been running consistently to a high level and remains unexposed over this trip. The rain is a question mark, although he did well on heavy in the French Derby.
The 4-year-old Al Riffa is a frustrating sort, though with the rain coming, may enjoy this specific test over this course and distance and remains a relatively lightly raced colt with possible upside.
They all will have to improve significantly to get anywhere near to City Of Troy, if he translates his Epsom form the Eclipse. In saying that, if he doesn’t there’re alternatives.
The most intriguing rival should prove Dancing Gemini, though. Obviously I backed him the last two times, and still remember with agony how he just came close to win the French Guineas at Longchamp, if not for a shocking ride/tactical decision in that race.
In mind it’s clear that Dancing Gemini was the last two times seriously unfortunate not to finish closer to the winner than he eventually did. Hence I’m delighted to see McMonagle replaced in the saddle. He’s one of the worst judges of pace (in my unqualified view as armchair jockey). Kieran Shoemark is a significant upgrade.
While Dancing Gemini stayed on strongly at Longchamp, he didn’t looked like getting home at Epsom over 12 furlongs. One could argue, though: the way the race panned out for him had a lot to with the fact that he didn ran on to finish in the money.
Saying that, perhaps he had to be ridden as patiently as he was to have any chance to finish the race well. Yet, trailing in last position for a majority of the race was a wasted opportunity from a good draw after having a fine start to the race as well.
From his position so far back he had to use a lot of energy to make progress, quickening right into the fastest part of the race, while having to go wide and enduring interference around Tattenham Corner.
Despite all of this, remarkably Dancing Gemini still finished third fastest over the last three furlongs. It was a serious performance from a seriously talented colt.
It’s not rocket science to conclude the drop to 10 furlongs will be a positive for the colt though. He showed speed for a mile in Group 1 company while finishing strongly over that trip, and did well enough over 12 furlongs, without looking like properly staying it.
The nagging doubt that persists is whether he’s a horse that simply catches the eye, always promising to take the next step, without ever truly making it. He’s yet to run a three-figure speed rating, while catching the eye for various reasons in all his prior starts as well.
At this point in time I remain a believer. Believing that Dancing Gemini can improve for experience, for the trip and the track. If that’s the case, I do believe he’ll give COT certainly a proper race in the closing stages.
When writing this yesterday I thought somewhere around 8 or 9 would the price to get him; waking up this morning, as the ground turned soft, seeing much bigger than that on the Exchanges surprised me. In fact, his best form comes with juice in the ground, so that, I feel, can only enhance his chances today.
10pts win – Dancing Gemini @ 14/1(SM)
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3.00 Greyville: Grade 1 – Durban July, 1m 3f
This looks as open a renewal of the Durban July as there has been for a while. Mike De Kock said on preview night he feels the three-year-olds have the upper hand these days, but personally I’m not so sure.
From a handicapping perspective not too many horses scream “well in” but to De Kock’s point, 3-year-old colt Green With Envy has the makings of a fair favourite and on the basis of Weight For Age.
The way he won the Daily News 2000 when last seen where took the scenic route around the final bend, coming from well off the pace, was mightily impressive. There is every chance he’ll get the additional distance and can improve again, especially at a track he’s 3 from 3.
The danger is the whether he’ll get a good trip. Green With Envy is usually ridden stone cold, one who’s winning his races thanks to a devastating turn of foot.
Two issues with that in the July: it’s a big 18-runner field. He’s never encountered that. It’s a different beast compared to winning a 9-runner Cape Derby with plenty of space.
He may not get a perfect trip, and crucially, a possibly sedate enough pace may see his turn of foot blunted as he’ll have to quicken into fastest part of the race, having to make up a lot of ground, potentially.
Dolphin’s Cup Trial winner Oriental Charm is another dangerous 3-year-old, if he can stay the trip. He likes this track, won the Group 3 Trial nicely, was a strong runner-up in the Grade 2 1900 and will move forward, likely enjoying the run of the race.
Saying that, stamina is a question, given he’s yet to win beyond 9 furlongs and seemed to run out of gas in the Cape Derby.
Last years impressive July winner Winchester Mansion enjoyed the perfect race twelve months ago, as well as the perfect preparation leading up to the big race.
A bigger weight, far from a perfect preparation, he’d need everything to go absolutely right on the day to see him go back to back.
Obviously you can’t dismiss last years runner-up See It Again who travelled like the winner with 200m to go, but ultimately got outstayed by Winchester Mansion in a thriller to the line.
He’s been running to strong form earlier this year in hot races, but only was seen once since January in preparation, suggesting not all went totally to plan. On the other hand, that “prep run” four weeks ago was an excellent 3rd in the Grade 1 Gold Challenge.
He’s got to defy top-weight here and that adds to the difficulty, as does his hold-up running style if the pace is slow.
Second highest weight in the race Royal Victory can’t be discounted after winning the Grade 1 Champions Challenge back in April. He raced only twice over 10 furlongs, and won two Grade 1’s. If he can stretch out over the extended trip here, he must go close.
This years Met winner Double Superlative gets the assistance of Danny Muscutt once again, who’s flying in for this race. The talk is that he’s a little short of peak fitness, though I’d be more worried about the trip.
Lightly raced Barbaresco was badly interfered with in the Daily News, was hanging in the home straight as well, and yet he stayed on the extremely well in the closing stages.
He should get home over the extended July trip, may have more to offer and could be ridden a bit closer to the pace this time from the #2 draw. He’s a real chance and the 3-year-old I’d fancy most today.
However, in my view, they all have to beat Justin Snaith’s gelding Future Swing. The son of Futura, is the pick of South Africa’s superstar jockey Richard Fourie, and that’s a vote of confidence in itself.
Snaith has been incredibly positive about Future Swing, who enjoyed a perfect prep, with the July as his target this season: a lovely comeback run in April, followed by staying on strongly to land the Grade 2 1900 here at Greyville over 9.5f.
He’s not an unexposed horse, with 18 starts and 6 wins on his CV. However, he’s one, you could argue, who had this specific day in mind for a long time, having been saved somewhat to not show the handicapper his true class, especially over these sort of trips.
In his three seasons he raced only three times beyond 9 furlongs: there was the aforementioned Grade 2 victory, and there was a Listed success over 10 furlongs as well as back in January the ultra impressive win in the Grade 3 Chairman’s Cup over 1m 4.5f.
He’s got the speed for shorter trips and the stamina to see out the July distance without a problem. A gelding who comes into his own now as he gets older, having strengthened up significantly. Versatile, with the top rider on board, a lovely draw in #4 to move forward from, with Snaith saying they’ll ride him positively.
Yes, from a pure handicapping perspective he’s giving kilos away to th likes Oriental Charm and Without A Question. But the July is a different race and trip. I fancy him to be a stronger stayer than those two, no matter the weight.
If the pace isn’t too hot, that will ensure he’s going to be in a prime position and whatever way it pans out I can see the scenario that at the top of the straight he’s send on to win the race with his superior stamina seeing him hard to catch.
10pts win – Future Swing @ 10/1 (SM)
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4.00 Beverley: Class 5 – Handicap, 1m 2f
Giselles Defence obviously has a huge chance being able to run off the same 71 mark that saw him win comfortably at Epsom three days ago. Saying that, this is a different track, and the ground possibly faster than he wants it, given the overall profile.
Much more appeal makes God Of Fire coming off a superb seasonal reappearance after changing yards and having been gelded during his absence.
He was an excellent runner-up at Salisbury three weeks ago and should improve for the run, his second for the Kubler yard as a gelding.
That day he was quickly out of the gates, chased the pace but looked still quite fresh as he was hanging around the bend. He was a little bit flat footed and not ideally placed on the inside, also hanging ever so slightly, at a crucial stage of the race between 3 and 2 furlongs from home, where the eventual winner made his decisive move.
God Of Fire eventually found his stride in the closing stages and finished the best in the final furlong, in fact. That was strong race, I thought, and the winner a good one. Only 2lb up for the run, is possibly lenient.
Jim Crowley in the saddle today for a yard in strong form, in a race where the pace could fall into his lap, the wider than normally ideal draw won’t be an issue. God Of Fire should get an easy way toward the front and could be placed in prime position.
Chatty will have a huge chance if he can confirm his last two runs, now that he steps up to a mile. I struggle to catch runners of this yard at the right time, but hope he’s allowed to run on merit.
The 3-year-old gelding can be sluggish at the gate but also quite free. It may be inexperience but he need to start well and be a bit more more relaxed early on in order to get home over a mile.
He should have it in him on pedigree and also judged by the way he finished his last two runs. They were both eyecatching in no uncertain terms.
Awkward away at Redcar in Ma on his seasonal reappearance, he was short of room for a majority of the race but finished fastest under an easy hands and heels ride in the final furlong.
Off to a better start and right on the lead, he was part of a duo/trio that got a bit of a break on the field and he found plenty under pressure even in the final furlong.
He remains on the same mark and looks well-handicapped over a trip that should se him improve, if he settles, as well as for the experience. He’s ideally drawn to be prominent or on the lead once again.
10pts win – Chatty @ 7/2
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4.35 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Jungle Mac ran two incredibly well the last two times in slightly better races and should find this group of rivals a bit easier. He also has the potential draw advantage and could find himself having an easy enough day out at the front, especially if the race would develop toward the stands’ side.
Despite his speedy sire, there can’t be a question about his stamina for the trip. He finished with strong final sectionals the last two times, even when last see at Doncaster where he set a decent pace.
He rallied strongly that day and showed an equally lovely attitude earlier in May over this trip at the Rowley Mile. That day chasing the pace a couple of lengths off, he travelled well but also looked a little clueless how to handle the undulations of the track. He ran home very strongly and both of these last two forms look strong.
Overall Jungle Mac has a nicely progressive profile. He improved with each of his three runs on various metrics. A nice winner at Chelmsford in February. A fine third over 6 furlongs at Kempton. And then the last two big runs.
He improved with each of the last three runs on speed ratings as well: 74 at Newmarket, a career-best 77 last time out; with more improvement to come he looks capable of better still.
10pts win – Jungle Mac @ 7/2
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9.00 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Lilkian ran a few stormers lately and looks seriously well-handicapped here, with the addition of a good 5lb claimer on board as well.
He confirmed his strong form with a superb 2nd three weeks ago at Lingfield when he was caught wide throughout the race and still finished strongly.
That was a nice performance that confirmed the promise he showed in a bunch of runs earlier this year, including running to 61 and 62 speed ratings within his last three runs.
Still a turf maiden, he seems not as good on the grass as on sand. However, if you exclude his form on softish ground, he looks quite a capable runner. He’s also down to a career-lowest mark on turf.
Last season he ran three excellent races on decent ground, including being beaten only by a nose. He’s 4lb lower than his eyecatching third at Brighton in September, when last seen on turf.
Clearly he lost a bit of his early speed these days. But there won’t be a super hot pace here, most likely, so he should be capable of crossing over the stands’ side from the #3 drawn and get to a prominent position.
The fast ground looks perfect, and no rain in sight should stay like that. Lilkian looks to have found a prime chance to win his very first race on turf, although he’s on the drift the morning in the betting and that’s a concern.
It’s worth giving Dawn Charger another chance, especially today in different circumstances than the last two times where she faded badly.
I don’t think soft ground is a must and her previous form tells as much. A drop to the minimum trip looks needed after she failed to get home over 6 furlongs the last couple of times, albeit showing good early speed.
That early speed could be ideally used today as she has a fine draw to attack the race from and the pace map shapes favourable for her. I thought the way she started quickly and with plenty of speed at Newbury last month in a hot race showed there’s still enough ability, also now as a 3-year-old.
Dawn Charger has to give some weight away but she may well be able to do so as the class act, potentially. This race looks easier than the last two Listed races she contested in as well.
She was impressive as a juvenile landing a Group 3 and getting close to land a Group 2 also. That also achieve her a 92 speed rating – the best in this field.
10pts win – Dawn Charger @ 9/1 (SM)
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3.15 Sandown: Class 3 Handicap, 7f
I’m not sure what the reason is for Star Style drifting out rather dramatically this morning, from 4’s all the way out to getting 9s matched on Exchanges. She certainly is a price I love to back now, no matter what.
The risk aside that there may well be a reason for the price drift, the Richard Hannon trained filly looked ultra-impressive on debut at Newbury in April. She torn the field apart making all from the front setting a hot pace.
Rewarded with a superb 84 speed rating for that debut performance, suggested the daughter of Zoustar could be Group class winner in the making. The form didn’t work out well, but the way she did it, was what mattered more.
She went right to Newmarket for the Guineas but was always more likely not to stay a mile. And so it happened, as she raced too the front and set hot fractions, eventually fading to to finish a tired 15th of 16 runners.
Star Style drops back to 7 furlongs today, though she may even be quite effective over 6 furlongs. Her mark of 86 looks possibly underestimating her true potential. She certainly looked a much better horse on debut.
Saying that, there is pace competition here today. She won’t have it all her way from the front. Though, that may help her to settle, at least. One of the likely pace rivals is a NR as well. In addition to that, a good low draw will clearly help her to have a smooth way to the front.
The main concern I have is the ground. Fast ground is an unknown and her pedigree points suggests she may not be at her best when firm appears in the going description, also she seems to hit the ground quite hard, as far as my untrained eye can see.
At given prices I’m prepared to run the risk. If they afford her a too easy run from the front she could be hard to peg back, especially on fast ground at this track.
Mysteryofthesands looks underestimated moving back into maiden company. Still chasing a first career victory, he impressed the last time at Haydock, though.
He overcame a wider than ideal draw and quickly moved forward on the outside, chasing the leader, before taking it up from 3 furlongs out, travelling well. He was only beaten by two horses from off the pace but came clear of the rest of the pack.
He ran well at Beverly over this trip prior, having been keen from a wider than ideal draw as well. Both forms look good and he should be a bit better than this mark, so could be of interest in handicap company but this looks a race for the taking.
He has shown solid early speed and may be able to grab an uncontested lead here. The ground is a question mark, he seems to hit it quite well and only raced on softer ground so far, but the pedigree gives him a solid chance to actually improve for decent underfoot conditions.
10pts win – Mysteryofthesands @ 9/2
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3.35 Haydock: Group 3 John Of Gaunt Stakes, 7f
Quinault looks seriously underappreciated here as one who still be able to improve into a solid Stakes performer. He has risen through the ranks last year and ran incredibly well, more often than not, in super competitive handicaps.
He won seven races last year over 6 and 7 furlongs, many of them and decent to fast ground, including two hot Handicaps at Newmarket and Ascot. I also feel his two most recent performances warrant a clear upgrade.
He was not advantaged by the draw in his final run in 2023, and neither was he last month at Newmarket. In addition to the draw, that saw him confined to a small, isolated group on the far side, he missed the break (not a habit, yet) and a less than ideal route to the front of the small pack eventually, where he also pulled seriously hard.
It was a huge performance to keep going for as long as he did as he won the race of his small group too.
There’s plenty of pace in the race today, that will help him to settle. Hopefully he can start quickly, as he normally does. His stamina will be stretched to the limit but this flat track will suit. Quinault is drawn right beside Pogo, has a low draw and should find himself in an ideal spot in the closing stages.
10pts win – Quinault @ 13/1
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4.10 Haydock: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
I quite liked all four career runs from Kindest Nation this year. Lightly raced, and usually to the front of the field, she is open to improvement and could enjoy the conditions today.
The Hugo Palmer trained filly was her greatest enemy on debut when dwelling, before finishing strongly. She went on to win in impressive style a maiden at Southwell where she overcame a wide draw.
She didn’t seem quite home at Beverley but showed a lovely attitude in the final furlong, before, possibly not quite getting home over a mile in soft ground conditions when last seen.
Those last two forms look strong on paper, though, and she deserves her spot in this race, which is an ever so slight drop to the 0-80 Handicap that has been franked in the meantime.
The fast ground is a question mark in so far as she never tried it yet, but pedigree suggests it could bring out some improvement, even. The drop to 7f can only suit in my view, and in a race with a possible lack of pace she may enjoy the run of the race.
10pts win – Kindest Nation @ 8/1
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4.45 Haydock: Class 3 Handicap, 6f
Mustajaab looked an improved horse after a gelding operation when he reappeared at Southwell, given how easily he kicked clear in a competitive Handicap from near top-weight.
He ran a lot better at Ascot last month in a hot race, than the bare form suggests, though, given the circumstances. Drawn far away from the pace, he had to move across early on, found himself without cover from a long way out, and was badly carried over from over 3f out, nonetheless making good progress all the time.
He profile suggests softer ground is what he wants but truth is he didn’t have many opportunities on faster ground so far, and if so that came in hot races where he was big prices too.
It’s worth a chance, because there’s the possibility that he can be a bit better than his current 92 rating, and crucially he’s ideally drawn right beside the pace here, to hopefully tow him into the finish. He’s got speed and will not be lacking for effort.
10pts win – Mustajaab @ 9-5/1
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5.05 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 5f
Hot race, plenty of pace. Who’ll last home? Vadamiah could be the one from her good low draw, over a course and distance she loves and ground she clearly acts on.
Her recent seasonal reappearance was a gigantic effort in an equally fast race where she blasted through the first two furlongs the quickest, travelled strongly and just got beaten by less than a lengths by two in-form horses.
A pound up for that brings her right to her best ratings on speed and win form but she loves it at Catterick, three CD wins are prove, she won in this class as well and the 3lb of excellent apprentice Mark Winn could be critical today.
I don’t see too many getting involved in this in the closing stages, actually. Few appear anywhere near well-handicapped and with Vadamiah possibly hitting her physical peak as a 5-year-old now, she could still improve a bunch of pounds in these conditions.
10pts win – Vadamiah @ 9/2
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6.10 Catterick: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
I find this yard hard to catch, and so is So Grateful, a gelding reserving his best often for the sand. But if on a going day and allowed to run on merit he could be quite well-handicapped today, given 6f on fast ground with with an ideal draw at this track should seriously suit.
He caught the eye last time at Carlisle when racing forward up with a hot pace and didn’t tire too badly, which should prove solid form, with the first three home all tried in higher grade the next time.
So Grateful drops in grade today, this is more his realistic level and he’s a couple of pounds below his last winning mark. That came on fast ground at Pontefract off 65 last July, as most his wins come during the summer months.
He won twice over 6 furlongs, so the trip is within his range. From the #2 draw he should be able to move quickly forward and track the pace, to be right up there when it matters most.
His 7lb claiming apprentice has still a lot to learn but the weight allowance comes in handy, I reckon. He could be really well-handicapped today, all taking into account. With this yard you never know, though. He may drift out to 25/1 and misses the break…
How much hype is left, and is it still real? Well, in any case I can’t have City of Troy today, even though, given his sky high reputation at Ballydoyle, 3/1 could be tremendous value come shortly after half past five.
For that he must be a different colt than the one that showed up at Newmarket. Well-respected racing analysts suggested there were good reason why COT failed to fire at Newmarket, and why Epsom’s Derby test should suit him so much better
That may well be true. But will the actual race be run to suit him in practice? The #1 draw and all the pace in the race won’t make it easy for COT to settle or find an easy route to a comfortable position early on. The dangers of him overracing early on are real, I feel.
I find Ancient Wisdom much more appealing, given he should improve for the Dante run, most likely will improve for the trip and seems drawn right around the likely pace.
He was somewhat unfortunate when having to delay his run from 3 furlongs out in the Dante, which may have added to the 6 lengths defeat, which looks more dramatic than it may have been otherweise.
Not sure whether he needs it much softer, though. His best performances come with plenty of juice in the ground. There is good to soft left, but it continues to dry. At 6/1 I feel he’s just about a fair price.
Derby Trial winner Ambiente Friendly couldn’t have been more impressive visually at Lingfield. He may have been really well suited to how the race developed, though, and it was a poor renewal of the race. Hence I’m intrigued whether he can confirm that seemingly impressive performance.
Glenagles siring a Derby winner would be quite something, too. He’s got some decent progeny that stayed this trip. But this is a different level than a Group 2 in France, where they crawl the first three quarters of the race.
Los Angeles has been touted as the “ideal Derby horse” by some experts. He certainly did well to win the Derby Trial at Leopardstown and given the yard he hails from, you’d expect nothing less than improvement today.
Lightly raced, clearly more to come and the trip probably fine, given he’s a son of Camelot, he’s a big player. However, I don’t like the fact that he’s yet to run any significant speed rating.
The one I’m most interest in from a price point of view is clearly Dancing Gemini. He’s got the right pedigree, with dam and damsire both having been Derby winners. He’d be a Classic winner if for a better ride, I believe, too.
It was an outrageous crime that Dylan Browne McMonagle wasted a superb draw and a fine start to the French Guineas. He was shuffled back and ultimately had to delay his run until 150m out, when Dancing Gemini stayed on strongly, and perhaps a couple more strides would have won – or if Dancing Gemini would have gone into the clear a tiny bit earlier.
The son of Camelot travelled nicely throughout, was fairly well settled and showed a tremendous attitude and bravery in the closing stages.
Obviously, moving up to the Derby trip is an unknown. But he’s got the pedigree, and perhaps the #15 draw means he can easily move forward, to track the pace, without wasting too much energy early on.
I also like his general experience: six career runs, two wins and he improved significantly with nearly each run.
He hinted no uncertain amount of talent when sprinting away at Newbury with a first maiden success in August, before romping home in the Scotsman Stakes.
Perhaps committing too early in the Futurity Stakes, Dancing Gemini ran still with plenty of credit in a hot renewal back in October last year. Having clearly trained on, he should be well capable of outrunning his price tag today.
10ps win – Dancing Gemini @ 11.5/1
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5.50 Epsom: Class 2 Handicap, 6f
Can’t leave Mums Tipple unbacked today after another highly credible effort at Newmarket recently. His chances were severely compromised by the draw and it was impressive how he kept going to finish 4th.
Mums Tipple impressed prior to Newmarket in two of his three runs on the sand and suggested the way he finished those races that he retains plenty of talent.
He proved that at Newmarket, and before caught the eye at Kempton in no uncertain terms as well, when runner-up behind smart Mount Athos.
He travelled in rear and wasn’t advantaged by a slow pace, being poorly positioned, compared to the winner, who enjoyed an easy race from the front. Mums Tipple made eyecatching progress from over 3f out as he finished the final three furlongs fastest as well to be denied by a head in the end.
He pulled too hard in a slowly run race over 7f prior at Wolverhampton but was seriously unfortunate when held up from the widest draw and not getting in clear run while hard held on his seasonal reappearance at Lingfield.
He’s not the most prolific winner these days, but off a mark of 96 given he was competitive off marks in the 100s not too long ago.
The 6 furlongs trip will suit – his career-best performances have come over this trip and and any softish patches in the ground won’t be an issue, neither any further drying.
Ideally he would be drawn a little bit lower today, I reckon, given that’s where the pace will most likely develop. It’s a risk that he may end up running on well as happened at Newmarket, but never gets a chance to be in the race for real.
It seems I’m too late to the party, given nearly all juice has been squeezed out of her price this morning, but I still feel there’s a tiny bit of value left in a race that probably will very much develop toward the stands rail.
With that in mind, Matilda Picotte is perfectly placed to utilise her excellent gate speed to grab the rail. The ground is slightly quicker than ideal, the drop in trip also a slight question mark. But the filly has shown she can handle both.
Her recent run in the Saudi Turf Sprint, then over 7 furlongs, came on quick ground. She stormed out of the widest gate to grab the lead after an early tussle with Art Power. That early speed will be of huge help today. She led until the final furlong after setting a hot pace, and it was no surprise, after those earlier exertions, to see her fade back to 5th.
I believe, given the hot pace to be expected today, with a handful of horses usually keen to get on with things, plus the nature of the uphill finish at the Curragh, her stamina will be a useful asset as well.
Given, Matilda Picotte has won over 6 furlongs, in actual fact she’s a course and distance winner, the concerns over ground and trip are much smaller than her overall profile would suggest.
10pts win – Matilda Picotte @ 13/2
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3.05 Curragh: Listed Orby Stakes, 1m 4f
Demot Weld’s filly Sumiha must have a big shout, having been seriously unfortunate not to win at Cork when last seen. That was only her second ever career run. Slight concerns remain over the much faster ground, and any improvement is very much factored into the price already.
Raise You loves this course and distance and has a decent shout if he can take another step forward after his fair return off a long break in the Alleged Stakes back in April. He’s a short price, too, given it still requires faith that he can get back to his form from two years ago.
British visitor Candleford has been friendless in the market but the William Haggas trained gelding makes plenty of appeal on his seasonal reappearance, despite having to give weight away.
For one, he goes well fresh. He also should be in a decent spot, not too far off the pace when it matters most. Also his 2023 form is clearly the strongest on offer, especially the runner-up performance at Kempton behind Bay Bridge rating highly, as he also achieved a 101 speed rating.
The 1m 4f trip on decent to fast ground should be ideal for Candleford to show his best side.
10pts win – Candleford @ 5/1
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3.40 Curragh: Group 1 Irish 2000 Guineas, 1m
Rosallion looks a fair favourite. He’s proven to get (just) home over a mile and handled faster ground on his excellent racecourse debut last summer.
A fine runner-up in the English 2000 Guineas, where he achieved – no surprise – a career-best on multiple fronts. For all that, a mile does seem to stretch his stamina to the absolute limits, and the stiffer finish at the Curragh will test it to the max.
With that in mind, plus the fact a best 98 speed rating after five career runs, makes him look somewhat vulnerable. He’s a price to take on… saying that, this Irish 2000 Guineas field looks weak.
Of course you must rate Aiden O’Brien’s chances in this race. He’ll have River Tiber ready for his seasonal reappearance. On pedigree, a mile won’t be an issue.
He’s got to take a significant step forward, though, after his form tailed off toward the end of his juvenile campaign, and he’s yet to run a speed rating that screams “superstar”.
Craven Staked winner and English Guineas 3rd Haatem loos a rock solid chance to be right there when it matters most. He looks quite exposed, though. How much more improvement is there to come?
The value for me appears to be with Unquestionable. Clearly things didn’t quite go to plan this year so far. Aiden O’Brien admitted as much. While there’s every chance the Wootton Bassett gelding will need the run, I’ve no doubt this won’t be merely a public gallop. This is the Guineas, after all.
His juvenile form stands up, given his strong runs in the first half of 2023, and subsequently his excellent second in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere behind Rosallion, which warranted an upgrade, given he was closer to the pace and seriously keen.
Unquestionable proved his unquestionable talent at the Breeders Cup with the final race last year. He was always tracking the pace and showed an impressive turn of foot as he kicked clear in the last two furlongs.
With that in mind, fast ground today won’t worry him. In fact it may suit him more than others. He stays the trip, no issues there and is drawn right beside the likely pace in Take Me To Church.
Right now I’m once again in a most depressing phase of my betting journey. You know the feeling, when whatever you touch, it turns into a stinky brown turd? Yeah, that’s exactly it.
Backing Too Friendly at 14s, well supported before to off to start a 9/2 second favourite, just to bomb out. It must been weeks now that a selection was even within a shot for a place with three furlongs to go. Properly depressing.
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3.00 Lingfield: Listed Derby Trial, 1m 3.5f
This looks a wide open renewal that lacks a clear favourite and superstar…. at this stage, at least. Ballysax third Illinois heads the market, though hard to fancy him with a significant amount of confidence, judged on what he’s done so far.
On the other hand, he’ll likely enjoy the better ground, and the AOB yard seems to have kicked into gear this week, in no uncertain terms. Hence a fair default favourite, but nothing more than that.
Camelot son Defiance was a fast finishing second in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom. That gives him an obvious chance to feature, if he can get off to a better start and doesn’t find himself too far back.
The pace should be decent, so that may play into his hands. But he’s a skinny enough price, and I probably would fancy Illinois in a match bet.
The Euphrates is another AOB trained colt. Really nicely bred, he should also enjoy the better ground and you’d expect him to improve significantly on the bare form he’s sown in three career runs to date.
Meydaan could be a lot better than he showed on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket where he dwelt and made life difficult for himself. He looked an exciting prospect on his sole juvenile run last year.
Arabic Legend has to improve, given his 1/4 record and having been keen enough over 10 furlongs at Epsom last month. Salamanca, a son of Sea The Stars, has a lot to find after two winless career runs, while Ambiente Friendly was well-beaten in his last two runs and doesn’t give the appearance of a Derby prospect.
No doubt, the one I must follow here is Imperial Sovereign. He was quite an eye catcher on his seasonal reappearance at Kempton in a hot Novice race. Only a head beaten behind a possibly seriously smart winner (British Camp one of my horses to follow this year).
That day Imperial Sovereign wasn’t smartly away from the gates, but soon recovered and tracked the pace. He then travelled much the best, on the bridle until 2f out, before being all out to the line to be beaten by a better horse on the day, as close as it was ultimately.
He showed a likeable attitude putting his head down and answering ever call, though. That was only his second career run and he won well on debut last autumn.
From a pedigree perspective the trip isn’t impossible, if not a given that he sees it out. Nonetheless, he’s bred to be classy, and everything he has shown so far points to the son of Frankel certainly having the ability to win at this level.
The dam did her best work with a bit of juice in the ground. Therefore the faster the going gets, the bigger the questions to answer on that front. However, it may help him to stay the trip a little bit better.
In any case, given the open nature of this contest, I feel looks certainly overpriced, given what he’s done so far, and the opposition he encountered (if I’m right that the Kempton race is a strong piece of form, indeed).
10pts win – Imperial Sovereign @ 15.5/1 SM
……
May add one or two additional selections on Saturday morning, depending on how markets develop.
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