Ended last week with a bang – Teodoro made all to win easily at Yarmouth despite drifting out to 8/1. So broke even for the week in the end. Not a bad result given how badly it started.
Can things look brighter this week? Granted today is my birthday, here’s hoping for a big winner!
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4.30 Ripon: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f
Monticello struggled the last two times, however a drop in class may help. He also tackles older horses with WFA allowance still an advantage I feel.
He’s won only twice in his career, over 7f, though showed strong performances over 10f in hot class Handicaps earlier this year. The drying ground should help too.
Sire Teofilo does extremely well at this track and trip, and the usually prominent racing style of Monticello can often be a bonus at Ripon.
Brilliant Saturday, two winners from five selections paid off handsomely! Impressive 7/1 Ripon winner Sole Mission was the highlight, but Alfarris drifting out to 4/1 and still landing the hot 4.45 Handicap at Doncaster was also quite enjoyable to watch. It’s been really a super week! Hopefully it can be concluded with a final winner today!
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4.35 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 1m
Eagle Creek has to be trusted to have fully recovered from his injury that led to a dismal performance at Newmarket and it remains unclear how good he really is. A mark of 95 could still underestimate him but for what we know about him at this point in time looks plenty stiff enough.
A smarter choice given prices is Lomu in my book. Unbeaten on turf and the one time beaten in his four career starts on the AW he still ran well in quite a hot race.
He is improving all the time, won cosily at Ayr when seen last – a performance better than the bare form suggests. He was extremely keen early on, didn’t have quite a clear passage in the home straight and still won going away.
Stepping up in trip to 1m is not a concern on pedigree. He’s certainly every chance to get it, no doubt. I’m more concerned about his keenness. He may have run his race before it really starts. Also his hold-up style at track that favours strong front-runners with the main rival being one of those potentially is dangerous.
Nonetheless it is worth a crack as Lomu appears to be open to any amount of improvement tackling the new trip. He gets a bit more mature as well as hopefully with experience settles better.
Great Sound made my Friday. Superb win, different class in his race. Shame that Dreaming Time faded badly in the home straight when seemingly travelling well for most of the time. Owen The Law was a non-runner.
Big weekend ahead – I may shove my ass down to the Curragh on Sunday in fact – however Saturday looms large with a tremendous amount of great racing. Winx already kicked us off with a special performance in the Warwick Stakes this morning over in Australia, Arrogate will follow tonight, whereas there are some compelling Stakes races on offer in the UK and Ireland.
However I set my sights, as so often, on the slightly lower end of the class scale. Here we go!
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3.15 Ripon: Class 2 Handicap, 6f
Big and wide open sprint handicap, I feel Right Touch with Franny Norton on board is a massive price to give a bit of a chance here. He is down to his last winning mark, and while ideally the ground would be a bit softer, he does run well on genuine good ground.
He’s been not setting the world alight this season yet, mostly campaigned over 7f. The drop down to 6f should suit him, though, and given he is a also a course winner means at 25’s it is worth a nibble.
Selection:
10pts win – Right Touch @ 25/1 Bet365
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4.05 Newbury: Maiden Stakes , 1m 4f
Those with experience haven’t achieved an awful lot I feel, so to give a newcomer a chance isn’t that big a deal. John Gosden’s Gns750k yearling with the slightly unflattering name Erdogan, is a super interesting newcomer, one we have waited a long time to see.
A son of Frankel out of the superb Dar Re Mi who already has produced noticeable stakes performers no less so with So Mi Dar, Erdogan boosts the most magnificent pedigree.
Whether he is ready to go we will find out today, but given we’re midway through the season with some big targets on the horizon, one would think he has to run well today in order to have a chance to compete in the big stake races in autumn.
Selection:
10pts win – Erdogan @ 7/2 Coral
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4.40 Newbury: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f
Black Bolt bolted up on his second career start in a Kempton maiden back in December. Not seen since fitness is taken on trust.
However he has the pedigree to do well as a three year old and should enjoy the step up in trip to 10f. His sire Cape Cross has a significant record in softish conditions at this track too.
An opening mark of 82 in a race where the main rivals are seemingly older horses could be lenient.
Selection:
10pts win – Black Bolt @ 13/2 William Hill
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4.45 Doncaster: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f
Bidding for a hat-trick, Barwell can easily find still a bit more and is very dangerous here, however I’m firmly in the Alfarris camp. The Shamardal son is still lightly raced and has improved with each run after landing an All-Weather maiden earlier this year.
His runner-up performance at Chelmsford in May rates strongly with the form book and his subsequent run at Ascot in a hot class 2 Handicap is equally a strong performance. He was carried to the left by the eventual winner over 2f out but more importantly looked disorganized which meant he could not finish closer than 4th.
Head-gear applied for the first time should help in this case, he also drops back to suitable 10f and quite a bit in class. He could have too much on his plate for this lot I feel.
Selection:
10pts win – Alfarris@ 10/3 Bet365
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5.35 Ripon: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f
Chocolate Box looks ready to strike and may regret betting against him, however Sole Mission is equally a sporting chance, however a better price and has already proven he can get his head in front.
So he did at Carlisle on his penultimate start in excellent fashion. Things did not quite work out the next time however we can probably draw a line through that run and give him another chance.
He has been improving this season which one would expect from a very late May foal. Being a hold up horse is something i usually feel not totally comfortable betting on, however his sire Sea The Stars boots a tremendous record at this track.
Beaten in the dying strides – life as a horse racing punter can be an agonising affair. Cloud Computing got the better of Classic Empire in the Preakness Stakes. The fresher horse, with the better, less aggressive and more economical ride, won in the end.
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4.10 Ripon: Class 3 Fillies’ Handicap, 6 Furlongs
Open enough looking contest and I take a chance on bottom weight Savannah Slew. Other three year old’s in the field are better fancied and this filly has questions to answer given that she already had eight career runs, is a bit temperamental and wasn’t convincing on her seasonal reappearance.
However she should strip fitter now and will enjoy the return to six furlongs, a trip she won two starts back. Ground wise it won’t be a big deal if any cut is left as her two victories came on softish ground although on pedigree better ground is what should be her optimum.
A mark off 78 is stiff enough and she will need to improve, though juvenile form gives her every chance given she already ran to an RPR of 81 and should be home in the conditions encountered here at Ripon.
Bottom weight Art Obsession could be massively underestimated if the drop in trip does the trick for him. Still lightly raced, one can excuse his latest performance which the first below par one in his career. He proved to be consistent in six starts before.
He’s unproven over 6f and it could well be all happing a bit too quick here for him, but he usually shows good early speed over 7f, so it may well work. He has form on soft ground as well, so on balance might find conditions just about right. With an excellent 5lb claimer on board today he comes into this race as an absolute feather weight, and I find that hugely attractive.
Art Obsession @ 16/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
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4.15 Newbury: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f
Super well bred Illusive has never lived up to his pedigree (full-brother to Rip Van Winkle) and has left Aiden O’Brien’s camp over the winter. Leaving his seasonal comeback run aside, he has performed with loads of credit in his last couple of starts. Stepped up to 9f at Goodwood the last time, he was probably a shade unlucky as he didn’t get a clear run ofer 2f out but finished like a train.
He is 3lb up for this effort, however goes up another furlong in trip which could work well for him. More importantly he gets soft ground for the first time since winning on this type of ground a competitive maiden at Leopardstown almost exactly one year ago. That may enable him to pull out a bit more today.
Illusive @ 8/1 Beftred – 5pts Win
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8.05 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f
Fine Tune hasn’t anything in three maidens for John Gosden last year. Subsequently sold, he starts for a new yard today in his first handicap. He has been gelded in the meantime, which is why I’m mostly interested in him. This often works wonders for his father Medicean’s offspring.
He hasn’t shown anything to warrant an opening mark of 55 and the yard is in poor form. So he well finish last. But the trip should work in his favour and he is related to some decent individuals, which means potentially he could be better than his current rating. It’s worth a try.
Good win for Harlequin Rock yesterday. Feels always good to get things right, as it doesn’t happen too often! Mass Rally looked to come storming home on the outside but faded away eventually. He needs more help from the handicapper these days. Katimavik was NR.
7.35 Ripon: Class 3 Handicap, 5f
This could be an excellent opportunity for the old boy Noble Storm to get back on the score sheet. The nine year old hasn’t been exactly close to winning this year but more often than not wasn’t disgraced nor far beaten.
He drops to a very handy mark now which should see him competitive in this grade, particular today with ground conditions sure to suit well.
Noble Storm @ 16/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
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7.50 Chelmsford: Class 3 Handicap, 10f
The two fillies at the top of the market could be hard to beat here. Talawat of bottom weight will go very close if she gets the trip against this better opposition. Martlet makes more appeal as she is proven over track and trip.
However I feel Taaqah is overpriced here. She went close over a mile at Chelmsford earlier this year, when runner-up behind Boonga Roogeta. She hasn’t been seen to best effect in her last two starts but the return to the All-Weather may help. She steps up in trip and that is the factor which may see her improving a bit again.
On pedigree she has every chance to do so as a son of Arch out of a Gone West mare who has a stake in multiple St. Leger winner Leading Light.
Taaqah has only one maiden win to her name yet, and that over 6f. It’s is not given that she appreciates the new trip. But it’s possible. There aren’t too many in this field with a realistic chance on handicapping terms and therefore I believe she is a rather big price here.
Taaqah @ 16/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win
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8.00 Cork: Give Thanks Stakes (Fillies’ Group 3), 1m 4f
This two times races filly Zhukova progressed nicely from her debut run when she landed a Navan maiden in fine style back in June. Trainer Dermot Weld was quite happy and was hoping she would make into a nice Stakes filly over further. Today is the chance.
She lacks experience in this field but is extremely well bred and should appreciate the step up in trip. With natural progression she can go close.
Money is floating in for Harlequin Rock and it’s easy to see why. This Rock Of Gibraltar son hasn’t shown anything in three maidens but will be very suited by the step up to 1m on his nursery debut. He gets into this race off a very low opening which may underestimate his potential.
First time gelded, which works well for sons of ROG, he is from a mediocre family, although his dam has produced horses that who have been competitive off mid-60 marks. Here’s a fair chance that Harlequin Rock is underestimated in this field.
Harlequin Rock @ 8/1 Betfred – 5pts Win
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3.45 Ripon: Class 3 Handicap, 6f
A couple of these have a big shout but at the given prices veteran Mass Rally makes appeal. He’s slipping down to a realistic mark, in fact hasn’t been racing of such a lowly mark since 2012 when he won the Ayr Silver Cup off 94.
He is still competitive as he proved at York earlier this year. He has to bounce back today after a dismal run at Hamilton, but now down to a mark off 95 as well as dropping in class, he should be very competitive with softish conditions to suit.
Mass Rally @ 8/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win
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4.25 Naas: Conditions Race, 7f
Not too many make appeal, but Weld’s Katimavik could be well in here. He was an impressive scorer at Fairyhouse over seven furlongs last year, after which his trainer said this lad needs better ground. He was disappointing on his seasonal reappearance but made amends subsequently in a three-runner handicap when hanging tough against a mid-90 rated individual.
On that evidence the drop in trip should suit. Katimavik still had only four career starts and with trip & ground to suit he could be a good ten pounds better than his current rating which would give him a prime chance in this field.
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