Royal Ascot is nearly upon us. One more sleep. It’s THE most exciting week for any flat racing fan. Brilliant racing, top-class horses. Good ground (hopefully). I love watching it.
Although, from a betting perspective it’s never been a big week for me. Last year I had only three bets the entire week (2 the year before)! Which included the Maljoom race that gives me nightmares to this day.
Hence, I’m somewhat surprised to find myself having as many bets on day one already! Ominous. Certainly given my current form.
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2.30 Ascot: Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes, 1m
One of my favourite races all year, and how can it be any different when my favourite colt Paco Boy made a name for himself in this very race back in 2009: he travalled like a dream, produced for his trademark turn of foot to win in style (shamefully it seems no video footage has survived).
That’s the past. The future is now. And this future shapes like a match-race between Inspiral and Modern Games. At least in the betting.
Current favourite Inspiral (may change by the time of posting) hasn’t been seen since a lackluster effort in the QEII last October. That’s a worry.
However, her victory in the Jacques le Marois last August is the standout piece of form in this field, especially on (more recent) speed ratings. She ran well fresh in the past, and yet it requires a lot of trust to back her at short odds.
Modern Games is the “recent form” horse after his Lockinge Stakes success. He didn’t ran an overly impressive speed rating that day (91) and his career-best 98 from last June in the French Guineas is certainly solid, without being exceptional, especially not for a 9/4 shot in a Group 1.
Native Trail, is the one with the most consistent speed ratings, having ran multiple times to 100+, including three times last year. His comeback run after a break and wind op was okay, but hard to gauge from that whether he’s back to anywhere near his best.
If he is, and you trust him to be, he’s a clear danger and arguably value in the betting, given a stiff mile at Ascot should suit, especially if the pace is on.
Mutasaabeq got the better of Native Trail him at Newmarket in fine style from the front, but couldn’t follow up in the Lockinge. He may well set this race up for someone else, I feel.
Chindit was runner-up in the Lockinge Stakes and his performance warranted an upgrade. He won a Queen Anne Trial on his seasonal debut nicely and is a rock solid chance. For all that, he’s not overly exciting and didn’t impress on speed ratings for a while.
That brings me back to one of he horses I fancied to have a huge 2022: Cash. He was one of my 5 to follow last year. His issues have been well documented and those prevented him from realising his true potential so far.
Given the tremendous impression he made on his debut in October 2021, and then on his seasonal reappearance at Sandown in the Classic Trial in April last year, where he was a seriously unlucky 2nd behind Westover, one may wonder “what if”.
“What if” may be here and now. For one he may get his ideal race: a fast pace to track over a mile that should ensure a test of stamina over the trip. And he looks to be ideally drawn to follow the lead.
I loved his two runs this year. The second behind Chindit over this course and distance when he finished the best in a sprint finish. And when last seen in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown.
He tried to move up in trip, but the pace wasn’t really on and he was – unsurprisingly – way too keen in the first three furlongs. It was still eyecatching to see the way he made smooth progress once the pace increased from over 4f out.
He fell away late but it was a huge effort behind strong Desert Crown and Hukum. Given all the question marks over most in this Queen Anne field, it nearly feels like a drop in class, somewhat.
Cash is a massive price. Too big here. Yes, he’d prefer a bit of rain for ideal conditions, but that’s unlikely to happen now. But track and trip will suit. He’s unexposed and open to improvement. Can he deliver some well needed cash for my decimated betting bank?
10pts win – Cash @ 20/1
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3.05 Ascot: Group 2 Coventry Stakes, 6f
Intriguing race for myriad of reasons. There’s certainly a social media aspect to the race: the clock vs the eye, who’s going to prevail? That’s the simplified narrative of the last few days on Twitter as all the pre-race talk evolves around River Tiber and Asadna.
Aiden O’Brien has been really positive about his lad, River Tiber, who’s 2/2 this year and looked an exciting colt on debut. So is Ryan Moore. That’s definitely something to take serious.
River Tiber must have learned plenty at Naas the next time, where he also bettered his excellent debut 77 speed rating. There is tons more to come, especially as he moves up to 6 furlongs.
Asadna on the other hand, was visually incredibly impressive on debut, but also ran a sensational 90 speed rating. He couldn’t have done more to impress that day at Ripon.
Both are drawn at opposing ends of the field. The way this race develops from a pace angle could decide who’s more likely to win. They have solid pace around them to potentially provide a lead into the finish.
However, the pace may develop more toward the middle and higher drawn horses here, and that may play into the hands of Asadna, but also could bring other horses into the equation.
There are many tasty prices on offer, and it’s not easy in a field full of unexposed horses to make the ‘right’ call.
A case can be certainly made for Army Athos, who was visually an impressive winner on debut, who seems an uncomplicated sort as well and may provide good early speed from gate #12. He ran a low speed rating, though, hence has to show more here if he wants to go all the way.
Amo Racing has some interesting contenders: Cuban Thunder looks potentially well drawn between speed horses, to get a nice lead, if he’s good enough to take it.
Stable mate Bucanero Fuerte could be even better drawn, close to likely speed horses Army Ethos and US raider Fandom. He could be in an excellent spot two furlongs from home.
He impressed me on debut at the Curragh early in the season over the minimum trip, as he travelled well, tracked the pace and kicked clear in impressive manner eating up the uphill finish at Irish flat racing HQ as he ran to a fine 80 speed rating as well.
It was rain softened ground, so the form may be a bit suspect, and hasn’t worked out all that well in the meantime. Nonetheless, the way he finished that day – strongly sprinting all the way to the line – suggests that moving up to 6 furlongs will certainly to his advantage. He’s a full-brother to some smart siblings. Whether he handles the better ground is the key question.
Bobsleight and Haatem, first and third at Epsom recently, are others who are interesting as they appear progressive and have a bit of experience already.
Hard to know how good Fandom is for Wesley Ward. What’s to be expected is the colt to show blistering early speed. Though, there are many with solid early pace in this race this time and also right beside him. I feel he may burn his fuel too early.
The other one who may get a nice lead into the race, drawn more on the outside of the pace I expect to come toward the centre of the track, is debut Windsor scorer Chief Mankato.
The form may be underestimated, because it was just a Windsor Class 5 Novice race. However, it seemed a surprisingly hot one. The form looks strong, has worked out well in the meantime, and visuals meat the clock here.
Even though he was possibly well drawn, he didn’t get the ideal race early one with shifting horses pushing him ever so slightly back. His acceleration from 3f out, though, was impressive, and he reeled the leaders in to run home strongly.
The overall time as well as the pace they ran for the first three- and four furlongs compares strongly to the other 5- and 6 furlong sprints for older horses on the same card. This lad must have a serious engine.
5pts win – Chief Mankato @35/1
5pts win – Bucanero Fuerte @ 19/1
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3.30 Thirsk: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Ascot Adventure ran a huge race when last seen at Beverley, and left on the same mark, 5lb below his last winning mark, he looks a big chance with a good draw and pace scenario possible in his favour.
The Beverley race was a hot affair. He moved quickly forward to push a strong pace as part of a leading duo. He rolled down the hill and overall ran an inefficient race.
Still, he was able to actually kick on once again in the home straight – Impressive to see, before getting understandably tired late.
He achieved a joint career-2nd best speed rating here, even though 7.5 furlongs may stretch his stamina to the absolute limit.
The slight drop back to 7 furlongs here at Thirsk will suit. He acts in all sort of ground conditions, so any rain is not a major worry. Off 80 with the #4 draw and a track that favours those up with the pace he looks to have a serious chance.
10pts win – Ascot Adventure @ 5/1
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4.20 Ascot: Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes, 1m
What a race! Pretty much all the right horses are here. This presents also the opportunity for English and Irish 2000 Guineas winners to meet.
The ground could play a major role in who’s going to brevail in this battle. It looks pretty clear that Chaldean prefers cut in the ground. It may not rain enough between now and tomorrow afternoon to turn Ascot to proper soft.
I also feel Chaldean got pretty much the run of the race at Newmarket. He ran a fine treble-digit sped rating, that gives the performance substance, and yet I have reservations, not least at his short price.
If the ground stays decent enough I would certainly favour Paddington. I was present at the Curragh three weeks ago and saw an individual with plenty of scope. I loved how he kicked on in the final furlong and he looks an exciting prospect for the future.
In saying that, the fact he hasn’t managed to run a speed rating beyond the 60s is concerning. Perhaps, he didn’t have the opportunity yet, could be a fair argument. He looks capable of doing it, but given his short enough price there is better value to be found.
Royal Scotsman was an excellent third at Newmarket behind Chaldean. He was possibly a little bit unfortunate that day. He flopped at the Curragh and his well being has to be trusted. He should be in the mix if healthy.
Craven winner Indestructible bombed out in the Guineas. The Craven performance gives him a chance, if he could be back to that level of form. Galeron ran on well in the Irish equivalent, a bit of an eyecatcher. So was Charyn, who didn’t get the clearest of runs. Both may not be good enough, though, I suspect.
Isaac Shelby was a comfortable in the Greenham with a good speed rating and ran with tons of credit when runner-up in the French Guineas. The #3 draw here is ideal for him to move forward and find a good position. I like him a lot.
Unbeaten Cicero’s Gift has been talked about a lot. He looks open to plenty of improvement. A danger, if he does progress, indeed. However, he has to find quite a bit on speed ratings.
That leaves unexposed Mostabshir. He’s one of my horses to follow after his impressive debut (and sole) run as a juvenile last year at Kempton where he quickened nicely and overcame a wide draw.
His eagerly anticipated seasonal reappearance in the Craven Stakes was disappointing, but he left that run firmly behind when winning a competitive contest at York the next time.
That day he finally looked like the exciting colt we saw on the Kempton polytrack again, an he produced a scintillating turn of foot to win easily by five lengths. If ridden out he’d have won by half a furlong, perhaps.
The pace wasn’t truly on that day, nonetheless an ordinary horse couldn’t do what he did there, I firmly believe. The form also looks strong thanks to the runner-up and fourth who went on to win subsequently.
Nonetheless, on form terms and speed ratings much more is needed here against the best of the three-year-old milers. The likes of Chaldean and Paddington are Classic winners, and Isaac Shelby was a runner-up in the French equivalent. It’s a significant step up from a Novice race at York.
On the other hand, he had only three career runs so far and in two of them he was a hug eyecatcher. It’s also fair to assume that possibly needed the run in the Craven and possibly enjoyed the fast ground at York as well. With that in mind, any significant rain at Ascot could be a concern.
He’s bred to improve with age and experience, though, and I feel there is an awful lot more to come. His damâs offspring often improve with time. At give prices he looks clearly overpriced given the likely upside.
10pts win – Mostabshir @ 8/1
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5.35 Ascot: Listed Wolferton Stakes, 10f
Saga looks a poor favourite. He may not stay and could struggle for a run. Buckaroo could run over his preferred trip and the yard is quite bullish. Saying that, he hasn’t run a serious speed rating yet.
This is wide open and much will depend on pace and whether horses get a clear run. The one I’m keen on is Royal Champion who caught my eye a number of times last year.
This is a Listed race and he has to carry a penalty which isn’t ideal. Nonetheless, I think he could be capable of giving the weight away as he may well deserve another crack at Group level and he looks significantly overpriced here.
There a a few reasons why he is a big price, the weight penalty aside, and they are valid, though. The #12 draw isn’t ideal. There is plenty of pace and he may be caught wide or too far back. If the rain arrives it could compromise his chances further.
In saying that, right now it seems good ground is the worst to expect on Tuesday afternoon. The gelding has shown to be versatile in his running style, possessing excellent cruising speed, which is what’s needed here in this likely chaotic race.
He drops in class after a poor effort in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes at Chester. That came over 10.5f in the mud and was his comeback run. I thought he ran better than the bare result suggested given he was there right until they turned for home, actually.
He was found out for class in the Champion Stakes in his final race in 2022, but prior to that enjoyed an excellent campaign: two fine victories over 10 furlongs in Handicap and Listed company, and a strong third in the Group 3 Winter Hill Stakes at Windsor.
He ran to a 104 speed rating there – a race that has worked out well in the meantime – and backed that up with an ultra-impressive victory in the Listed Doonside Cup at Ayr where he travelled incredibly strongly and made eyecatching progress from 4f out to win comfortably.
That particular piece of form may not be the strongest on offer, though the way he did it was visually quite taking nd simply confirmed that he’s a proper horse, in my view. The way h quickened was impressive.
If he can run to same level of form that he was able to run to last summer he has a chance to win here, especially if the way the race develops gives him a clear run at it in the home straight.
10pts win – Royal Champion @ 33/1
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