Finally a winning selection! Cappananty Con (8/1) did a nice job to land the spoils at Wolverhampton, albeit in a desperately tight finish. Betting wise I needed that, as it was not a good week and some of my decisions were poor.
Memo to myself: stop backing newcomers, regardless how “sexy” they look on paper. It’s not a viable long-term investment!
It’s a bleak Sunday for racing. Little there to excite. Certainly on the domestic front. All the negative talk about Dundalk’s surface, it seemingly shows to impact field sizes today. At least over in France, the return of Persian King is something to look forward to!
4.15 Dundalk: Handicap, 1m 4f
This looks a poor race on paper and that leaves the door wide open for top weight Construct making a winning debut for his new yard. He was a rather expensive purchase out of Ralph Beckett’s, formerly running in the famous Juddmonte colours.
Construct comes here fresh off a break, in the meantime having been gelded as well, a first time tongue tie spotted is interesting as a bit of money seems to be arriving in the market also.
Form wise he’s the one to beat in my mind. He was well on top winning a minor 3-runner-handicap last summer at Pontefract, but followed up on the All-Weather in two hot contests, finishing creditable runner-up at Chelmsford and Kempton respectively – the form as been upgraded significantly in the meantime.
A mark off 78 doesn’t leave a lot of wriggle room, to be perfectly honest, nonetheless. Construct may still have a bit of improvement left, though – if change of scenery and the gelding has had any positive effect.
10pts win – Construct @ 8/1 Coral
5.20 Dundalk: Handicap, 1m2½f
Quite Subunctious is a frustrating sort to follow as, despite looking dangerous on a number of occasions and showing a little bit of promise – his 2.5l sixth-place-finish at Galway off a 59 handicap mark for example – he can’t get his head in front. He came desperately close at Wolverhampton in February, only swooped late to lose the race on the line.
Even though it was a poor race, this performance of a mark off 48 handed him a TS rating of 47, which looks not too far off the mark judged how the race has worked out since then (winner and third have followed up with fair performances next time out).
The 4-year-old gelding hasn’t looked the same in his subsequent starts, however his Newcastle run can be upgraded in my mind. Quite Subunctious made way too much, leading the field by half a dozen lengths turning for home; as the last time, two miles were simply too far.
The drop in trip should suit, given Quite Subunctious showed his best form in and around a mile in the past, even though showing a couple of additional furlongs aren’t an issue.
He’s got the assistance of a 7lb claimer who hasn’t won a race in quite some time; nonetheless, if on a going day, this weight allowance can be quite handy.
I’m under no illusion Quite Subunctious may never win a race, but in this poor contest, I can make a good argument for him being overpriced, judged on above facts.
10pts win – Quite Subunctious @ 34/1 MB