Tag Archives: November

Betting

Preview: 2024 Betfair Chase

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3.05 Haydock: G1 Betfair Chase, 3m1½f

The 2024 Betfair Chase looks an intriguing affair and could evolve around how the pace develops in the first half, given the likely deep ground, with all the additional rain that’s falling.

Possible pace angle The Real Whacker showed excellent early season form three weeks ago when he won the Charlie Hall Chase thanks to a brave performance and a strong finish.

We know he likes to go from the front, although he can follow as well. That versatility could prove crucial in a race where some others may or may not want to go forward as well.

I have slight doubts whether only three weeks after such a huge run he can back it up in a strong field over a this trip in deep ground, especially if the pace is hot early on. Everything needs to fall right for him to win.

For all that, he’s an intriguing price to possibly find out with some small money, if they don’t press him early, he may have enough in the tank to stay in front for quite a while.

Bravemansgame has never quite looked the same horse he was in that brilliant 2023 season. Today fitted with blinkers, 2nd time after a wind operation, he’s hard to trust today – although Paul Nicholls has done it before, lest we forget the magic Kauto Star produced in this very race.

Ahoy Senor got the racing bubble talking after his recent seasonal reappearance – for all the wrong reasons, given the ride he received on the day, not quite giving him the best opportunity to win.

Up in trip will suit today, he should be okay on the ground and will strip fitter for the recent run. He’s not one to trust with your life, and I can see him struggling with his jumping if this turns into a proper test from early on.

Without the rain Hewick would have been a serious contender today. I quite liked his Down Royal return and this track will suit. But all his best form is on better ground. Hence he’s 14/1+ in the betting, and rightly so.

Exciting second-season chaser Grey Dawn is a fair favourite today. Progressive as a novice, he has shown he handles deep ground, has form over 3 miles and could see his King George and Gold Cup prospects improve significantly with a strong performance today.

The fact he’s only raced twice over 3 miles and never beyond yet is a question mark for me. He could well be capable, but he’s a short enough price to find out, and not good value in my book, for all that if he does get the trip in these conditions he’s certainly the one to beat.

Returning 2023 Betfair Chase winner Royale Pagaille has been only sighted once in the meantime – that was in January when he jumped badly and fell in the Cotswold Chase. He won this as as a fresh horse twelve months ago, so the absence isn’t a negative per se.

This course and distance and the deep ground is obviously what he loves, given his 4-3-1 record. You simply can’t deny that Royale Pagaille is a different horse here.

On the other hand, he’s a 10-year-old now. And younger legs may outrun him, ultimately. If he’d be a 6/1 chance I could be tempted. At 10/3 it’s not a bet I like to make.

I find it hard to fancy Gold Tweet, who would be a disappointing winner for the class of this race. Capodanno may prefer better ground over this longer trip, and isn’t one to fancy, either.

Limerick Lace progressed nicely over fences in the last two seasons, culminating in her victory in the Mares’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

She didn’t have the best of days in the Grand National subsequently, but there are valid excuses, and ultimately, she still managed to finish a gallant 10th, given all the things that went wrong there.

The mare clearly thrives in deep ground and could be a real danger toward the end of the race today, if she’s still in touch. She has yet to prove that she’s truly homer over 3 miles plus, although her Troytown runner-up performance gives hope.

She can be a bit sketchy jumping wise, and that’s a danger. If they go hard up front, and she gets too far behind, jumping poorly, it’ll be game over soon. At the same time, if they start racing from early on, her more patient running style could prove vital in the long home straight at Haydock.

From a price perspective, with the upside the progressive mare has, ground okay, trip possible okay, and the pace scenario possibly playing into her hands, she’s a nice bet that has still some juice left in the price.

Selections:
7pts win – Limerick Lace @ 8/1 SM
3pts win – The Real Whacker 15/1 SM
Betting

Tuesday Selections: 19th November 2024

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4.15 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Princess Shabnam was perhaps a little bit too keen at Chelmsford when last seen, but still ran a big race for 3rd place, only a 1¼L beaten in the end.

She may get the opportunity to dominate today again – if she can overcome the #7 draw once again. That’s often a significant advantage at this track.

After that recent Chelmsford performance she’s now down to a mark of 75 and drops in class – for the first time into a class 5 Handicap.

Headgear is off today also, that’s intriguing, given four of her five career wins came without any headgear, and she clearly remains with appetite for the game, judged by her recent runs.

Her Southwell performance in October caught the eye in no uncertain way: she went right to the front and set way too hot early fractions. It wasn’t a surprise to see her fade away eventually but it was a strong run, nonetheless, confirming the excellent form the mare produced over the last weeks and months.

Especially her Kempton 2nd place in September counts as seriously strong form, given the way she held on for so long, with the winner ridden with a lot more patience, as she achieved a 80 speed rating also that day – close to her career-best on the sand.

The yard isn’t in great form, though, but the runners tend to perform better than expectation at this track. Others see more money this morning in the betting, so Princess Shabnam drifted out from early 9/2 to 6s+ readily available.

10pts win – Princess Shabnam @ 6/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 16th November 2024

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6.18 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

Not much pace in this race, that could play natural front-runner Jumeira Vision into his hands, who won’t mind getting an easy lead on his own.

The gelding impressed last month over this course and distance when he led for most of the race, setting a hot pace, with a trio of horses closely following on his heels.

He kept going nicely, while they fell away in the second half of the race, and kept on for a decent 4th place finish, outrunning his 28/1 price tag.

This was a serious performance and suggests this stiffer test over a mile at Newcastle could really suit, given on the AW his best came over a bit further.

He won well last November over 9.5f at Wolverhampton off 4lb higher (also career-best speed rating) and earlier this year on turf over 8.5f off his current 58 rating.

If today doesn’t work out he still has the option to drop down to an easier grade, and remains of high interest, given all his wins came in class 6 in the past.

But with the CD and pace possibly to suit, in an open contest, Jumeira Vision should have a proper chance to out run his price once again, at the very least.

10pts win – Jumeira Vision @ 8/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 7th November 2024

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5.05 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

The pace scenario could play into the hands of possibly quite well-handicapped top-weight Strong Johnson. He drops ever so slightly in class, after a couple of strong runs lately.

He can track the pace but is also happy enough in front on his own – with not too much other pace to worry about here in this race today, he could be in an ideal position when it matters most.

His most recent third place effort at Southwell was a big run. That piece of form looks already quite strong the way it starts to work out. He could be the next nto winner.

That day he was soon chasing the leader, having a perfect #2 draw, but also he was doing a lot in the first half of the race, as did the other more prominent races.

Nonetheless, he travelled quite well into the home straight and showed and excellent attitude in the closing stages as he kept going strongly in an attempt to fend of multiple challengers

He achieved a 70 speed rating there, which matched his current mark. He also showed a handful of decent performances this season without getting his head in front, though.

The handicapper has been kind, left him on 70, and given he won off a good deal higher twelve months ago over this course and distance, he must be a prime chance today.

10pts win – Strong Johnson @ 9/2

………

8.00 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Princess Shabnam could be the lone speed here, if she can overcome the #7 draw. That’ll be a huge advantage to this speedy, who’s showing excellent form lately.

A fortnight ago over this course and distance she went right to the front and set way too hot early fractions. It wasn’t a surprise to see her fade away eventually.

This was a strong run, nonetheless, confirming the excellent form the mare produced over the last weeks and months.

Especially her Kempton 2nd place in September counts as seriously strong form, given the way she held on for so long, with the winner ridden with a lot more patience, as she achieved a 80 speed rating also that day – close to her career-best on the sand.

She’s down to a mark of 76 now, and ideally would drop in class, but today looks a weak 0-78 Handicap. With a possible pace advantage, she must go close.

10pts win – Princess Shabnam @ 7/2

Betting

Monday Selections: 4th November 2024

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7.45 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Oso Rapido looks poised for a big run here as he returns to the course and distance he caught my eye three weeks ago in no uncertain manner.

The 7-year-old gelding drops ever so slightly in grade as well, and should find this an ideal trip on the sand for him, given the pace scenario could also help to make it a gruelling test today.

Not as prolific on the All-Weather, as on turf, Oso Rapido had no too many opportunities to run 6f on the AW, though:

Found out for class in class 3 a few years ago, but he managed a win and the most recent excellent 3rd place in his four starts over 6 furlongs on the All-Weather.

Three weeks ago at this course and distance, he overcame the widest draw thanks to a rapid start, charging up wide to grab the lead just before the bend. He kept going for 3rd place – a massive performance in a decent field.

In fact, the three horses in chasing pack that followed Oso Rapido have won in the meantime. Oso Rapido himself was a bit disappointing at Redcar last week, but he was beaten by the way the race developed in another pretty hot class 5 Handicap for this time of the year.

Today is much easier, although the pace could be hot. The positive thing is that Oso Rapido doesn’t have to lead, he can follow who ever wants to make it. In fact, a good pace will be to his benefit, given he can stretch out to 7 furlongs as well.

10pts win – Oso Rapido @ 11/2

Betting

Friday Selections: 1st November 2024

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7.00 Dundalk: Handicap (50-80), 1m

Punk Poet could have found an ideal opportunity to get back to winning ways. He returns to the mile trip, his preferred course and distance, will enjoy a decent draw and showed plenty of encouraging signs three weeks ago at this venue.

That day over 7 furlongs, he had to overcome a wide #12 draw but quickly managed to grab the lead moving up on the outside in the first furlong, just before hitting the bend.

Largely leading uncontested – he also did a lot to keep it that way – Punk Poet travelled best into the home straight, kept going strongly under pressure, before getting tired in the final furlong to finish a gallant 3rd place.

This was a huge run, following on from two decent prior runs, as he starts to take advantage of an easing mark. He’s dangerous off 73 over CD, 5lb lower than his last win twelve months.

He doesn’t look too far off that form, judged by this big performance, that also warranted a decent speed rating and a piece of form that works out well, given the 7th and 9th of that race performed strongly in the meantime.

Punk Poet could be hard to beat today, as he should be able to slot in right behind the likes of No Knee Ever and Rampage, should they elect to want to lead, or he can simply to his own thing from the front. The #5 draw allows for multiple options, and all should suit.

10pts win – Punk Poet @ 9/2

Betting

Saturday Selections: 11th November 2023

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Bit of an unlucky spell right now. Haworth Star beaten in a photo. Probably was ahead right behind the line. Bunch of good runs for my selections lately, half of them placed, but no wins to show. Agonising.

Especially when you leave some unbacked that turn out to win…. the normal ups and downs of betting, I guess. A winner would be nice, though.

……

6.30 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

A weak contest and a weak favourite. I can’t have Cavalluccio in this race at all. Even though he seems to go better after a wind op, he still has to find something on speed ratings and isn’t exactly unexposed after 21 runs.

In contrast, I love the look of Blue Yonder dropping down to class 6, with the visor added, from a good draw, in a race with little pace to fight off in the early stages.

The gelding ran with plenty of credit this season, and his last two runs confirmed he’s back to his best, in my view.

He finished 9/12 last time at Newcastle but travelled well for most of the race in a competitive affair where, perhaps, things didn’t quite work out with the way the race ultimately developed. It was a better performance than the bare form suggested, though.

Prior at Wolverhampton he was only beaten in a tight finish, where the ride he received versus the rider the winner received made all the difference. With that in mind, off the same mark today, he is well-handicapped in my view.

That’s without taking into consideration a better jockey booking today and a pace scenario that will ensure Blue Yonder can move forward and be in the right spot throughout the race, which will surely be up with the pace.

He won twice earlier this year, up to 10 furlongs on soft turf. So the trip isn’t an issue. He also won on the sand over 9.5 at Wolverhampton, and was subsequently only a neck beaten at Weatherby off 69 where he achieved a 72 speed rating.

Blue Yonder seems equally as effective on sand as on turf, and that’s in line with the observation that a mark of 67 is probably lenient as this point in time.

10pts win – Blue Yonder @ 15/2

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Friday Selections: 10th November 2023

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6.20 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Competitive affair. Comedian Leader looks possibly overpriced back over this course and distance but the way the pace shapes and the new headgear combination is a worry for me.

Favourite Capuchinero won last time out with a bit in hand. A 5lb penalty makes life much harder, though. She never won off such a high mark and has to improve on speed ratings a handful of pounds too.

Haworth Star is the one most intriguing. Drawn wide, perhaps away from where the race develops in a slowly run race isn’t ideal one would think.

But making a move on that far side from a wide draw seems not too detrimental at Newcastle at all, so possibly negates conventional wisdom.

In any case, the lightly-raced gelding shaped like he’s significantly ahead of his mark when third at Wolverhampton last time out. The handicapper took notice and gave him a 2lb rise for the effort. Probably not enough.

That day he wasn’t quite the sharpest early on from gate 7, pulled quite hard in a tight and compact field as he tried to settle riding against the inside rail off the pace.

Yet, approaching the home straight he was still on the bridle, although he equally had a lot to do from the back of the field. He made strong progress, finding gaps as they appeared, without ever getting a smooth and clear run.

He appeared awkward and possibly intimidated in a tight finish deep inside the final furlong. Though, it was quite tight and the race was over at that stage no matter what, I reckon. Haworth Star also managed to run to a 61 speed rating, despite in less than ideal circumstances here.

Big odds suggested there weren’t high hopes riding on his back that day or eleven days earlier on handicap debut. The improvement from that Leicester run off a small break as well, was noteworthy in its own right.

Today is an easier race. This is only his third run in handicap company. This straight track may suit better than the ever turning Wolverhampton. He finished the strongest last time out, despite meeting trouble. So the stiff 7f could be exactly the test he wants, as long as they don’t crawl, which is a risk, truth told.

10pts win – Haworth Star @ 11/2

Betting

Thursday Selections: 9th November 2023

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8.00 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Crystal Dawn looks seriously well-handicapped in this poor field today as she drops in class and drops down to her most recent winning mark after a seriously noteworthy lto run.

A fortnight ago at Wolverhampton the mare wasn’t the sharpest at the start and subsequently wasn’t helped by a mad keen rival who kept her on the outside.

As a consequence she travelled wide throughout the race, although seemingly going strongly approaching the home turn. The jockey made zero attempts to actually improve position, though, and started riding when it was way too late.

She wasn’t expected in the betting on the day at all. So no surprise to see her finish the way she did. However, she did ran a number of solid races this year, suggesting there’s some mileage left.

Crystal Dawn is now down to a 53 rating, the same she won off last September over this course and distance, and subsequently off 3lb higher at Wolverhampton as well.

The help of a solid 7lb claimer is an added bonus today. Without a doubt she’s a real standout chance here in this poor 0-52 contest, a much easier race than the one she contest the last two times.

Cheek pieces are added and help, hopefully, with sharpness out of the gate, with the aim to utilise the #3 draw to best effect.

10pts win – Crystal Dawn  @ 7/2

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 8th November 2023

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4.20 Dundalk: Handicap, 1m

Garrick Painter goes back over a mile after two highly encouraging efforts at Dundalk since he moved to Ireland.

He’s been claimed last month on the back of a strong effort over 10 furlongs. From a wide draw he moved quickly forward to get to the front and the stayed for a long time to finish second.

That performance was very much in line with his previous eye-catching run over 7f, on his Dundalk debut. There he utilised a low draw to best effect but also made a lot in front.

He remains still lightly enough raced and these two runs are in line with some of his best efforts, as he ran to 72 and 79 speed ratings last year in the UK on the All-Weather.

Todays looks an ideal scenario, if new connections want to win. 1m should be his optimum trip. He’s got a low draw in a race that lacks competition for pace.

This natural front-runner should be able to dominate and get the run of the race, which often is an advantage at Dundalk.

10pts win – Garrick Painter @ 15/2

……..

8.30 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Competitive little race, but how’s the pace? Not too many obvious front-runners who are sure to move rapidly forward and set a strong pace here.

I feel those from wider draws have a chance. That brings King Of The Jungle into the mix, who was an eyecatcher last time out, but from #12 may find a way to get beat for these connections, hence another day may be more likely to see him run to form.

The one who makes plenty of appeal from the wider drawn horses is Bluebells Boy. He caught the eye twice now in the space of a month at Chelmsford.

Two back it was a massive effort from the widest draw when he only got caught late off his current mark. Last time up in trip, it was a somewhat unfortunate day in the office.

He was a bit awkward soon after the start, keen in the early part of the race when restraint off the pace. His jockey still took a pull 4f out as he travelled notably strongly into the home straight, where he met all sorts of trouble and had no chance.

Bluebells Boy was well-backed the last two times and looks seriously competitive off this mark, especially as he ran to a 56 speed rating back in July this year, and his two recent runs suggest he’s up to that level of performance still.

10pts win – Bluebells Boy @ 7/1