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Newmarket

Preview: 2000 Guineas

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The wintry weather of the last couple of weeks has hardly got me into the mood for flat racing. I went to Punchestown on Wednesday and was greeted with a mix of sleet and hail – but hey, here we are, the first classic of the new season right in front of us! Madness!!!

Ground wise it seems Newmarket has done pretty well. It’s good to soft with a dry day expected and given that the Rowley Mile dries up quickly, we can expect fair conditions.

That’s particularly important for red-hot Guineas favourite Air Force Blue. Sure, he’s won on yielding ground before, but he’s also a son of War Front so is probably best on decent ground. That says the conditions today won’t be an issue, I reckon.

What is slightly puzzling is the fact that he’s fitted with a tongue-tie for the first time. Aiden O’Brien has done similar with other good horses in the past, so it’s not necessarily a negative, however it may also imply there is some sort of issue with his breathing.

I personally am not a fan of tongue-ties; sure they don’t look nice on the eye, but – without knowing for a fact myself since I’m not a horse – horses generally don’t enjoy them is the saying from horsemen I trust.

Look, it’s probably all fine and well with him, the vibes are positive anyway and it’s just some assistance Aiden thinks Air Force Blue benefits from on the ground today. Given he’s the best horse in the race on all form we know, it is very hard, if not impossible to oppose him.

That says he is a short price. Rightly so, one can argue. Or not? You can never be quite sure if these beasts really train on until you see them race again. At 4/6 – or whatever he is right now, I’m prepared to take him on with something bigger.

SO: Who else can make a race of it? Racing Post Trophy winner Marcel must be in the discussion. He doesn’t mind cut in the ground and has improved nicely throughout his juvenile season. Truth told though, he was a bit lucky at Doncaster on the day. Whether the form flatters him or not, it leaves me with doubts.

Frankie and Hugo Palmer have been bullish about Galileo Gold. He was supposed to run in the French Guineas, but he’s been wintering and working so well, he’s been re-routed to Newmarket. I can see why. He looks bound to improve as a three year old and showed plenty of promise last season. He’s a son of my all-time favourite Paco Boy – he’ll run a fine if he handles the track.

Will Buratino get the mile? This precocious, speedy juvenile is not sure to have found much improvement over the winter. I find it hard to make a case for him, given he looks more like a sprinter without much scope and definite stamina doubts.

Much more of interest is recent Craven Stakes winner Stormy Antarctic. An excellent runner-up in the Group 1 Criterium International when last seen as a two year old, he looked mightily impressive landing the Craven a fortnight ago. He’s no mug but would clearly prefer the rain clouds to return. Drying ground is a slight concern.

Lightly raced Masaat finished second behind Air Force Blue in the Dewhurst. With a bit of improvement over the winter he should be right there when it matters, given he’s proven to handle this track – with the only question mark the trip. He’s to prove his stamina and I’m worried he’s not getting home.

Aiden O’Brien’s second string Air Vice Marshal is clearly an exciting prospect. Lightly raced, maybe not quite seen to best effect in the Superlative Stakes, he should develop into a nice three year old.The step up in trip is clearly in his favour, though whether the ground is fast enough for him to be seen to best effect is the big question mark.

Jim Bolger has proven in the past that he can get horses ready for the first classic. His Herald The Dawn, a full-brother to 2013 Guineas hero Dawn Approach, didn’t quite fulfill the early promise in the latter part of his juvenile season. But it’s fair to believe he could be a better three year old.

I like the fact that Ribchester has already a run under his belt this season, albeit I’m not sure what to make of it. Hanging badly in France earlier this month, he was subsequently demoted from second to fifth. The step up to a mile poses no problem for him, whether he is good enough is the question.

Verdict: It is probably not wise to oppose Air Force Blue, who looks the real deal on anything we know. He’s as short in the betting as he should be on all we know. However if you’re like me, trying to get these shorties beat, you can find some reasons to do so here. For me it’s the tongue-tie. I’m puzzled why this one would be applied if there isn’t a slight concern about his breathing.

From the bigger prices I’m intrigued by his stable mate Air Vice Marshal who cost a fortune as a yearling and could be much better than what we have seen from him as a two year old. This here might not be the race to see him to best effect, he may need the run and does probably need faster ground. At 40/1 he’s worth a shot nonetheless.

I’m stuck with Herrald The Dawn too. I punted him ante-post roughly eight months ago at 40/1. Doesn’t look all that smart today – it’s the same price you can get this morning. Shows this lad hasn’t improved in the expected way from the moment on I backed him. But as mentioned before there is good reason to believe he has scope to be better this year. The Guineas is his target and if he can find a couple of pounds – he will have to if he wants to feature – I can see him going close.

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Saturday’s Flat Tipps

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Newmarket Rowley Mile

3.10 Newmarket: Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1), 7f

Two super exciting colts go to post to fight it out here: Aiden O’Brien’s Air Force Blue and Godolphin’s Emotionless. Both created big impressions this season, both look special.

However I feel Air Force Blue should be a clear favourite here, given he already is a two times Group 1 winner – in fact he landed the two most important races for two year olds in Ireland, the Phoenix Stakes and National Stakes – and he seems to get better with each run.

The son of War Front has no issues with the ground today, after winning on yielding ground before. And he looked even more home over the 7f trip in the National Stakes than the sprints.

Air Force Blue @ 6/5 Racebets – 10pts Win

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5.35 Newmarket: Darley Stakes (Group 3), 9f

Mutakayyef is a very fair favourite to land this race but his odds offer no value so I go with lightly raced Ooty Hill who could easily be good enough to win at this level. He looked smart when getting off the mark last year at this venue but has had only two starts since.

A very promising runner-up effort behind subsequent Group 1 scorer Starof Seville was followed by a setback and a half year long lay-off. When he repapered at Newbury last month in an Arc Trial trainer Roger Charlton warned that Ooty Hill will most likely need the run.

The three year old colt dropped out tamely over 3f out which is a worry but he didn’t get a hard time either and one would hope the race has brought him along nicely for today.

Whether that is the case remains to be seen. Some horses never recover from their injuries. Ooty Hill deserves his chance today, though, and if he can find back to his form he’ll be a big runner with conditions very much to suit.

Ooty Hill @ 14/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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6.05 Chelmsford: Nursery (Class 5), 1m

Cogent makes his nursery debut and looks a very likeable sort. An opening mark off 70 looks stiff enough, but given the fact that he was far from disgraced in a super hot maiden when last time seen gives the indication that is a fair start. This son of Paco Boy is related to plenty of decent All-Weather winners and steps up to 1m which on pedigree will suit perfectly.

First time gelded today after a bit off a break, he makes plenty of appeal, given that sons of Paco Boy have often improved quite dramatically after a gelding op in the past. A good draw today is a help too – so in an open race, Cogent could easily outrun his odds.

Cogent @ 12/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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Preview – Lightning Spear has the class!

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Newmarket July Course

It has been rather quite this week for me personally…. there was brilliant racing on offer the last number of days at Newmarket, but I couldn’t been arsed. Life is busy, and some days off the horses can do the world of good sometimes. I feel fresh and rejuvenated in that sense at least. Let’s give it a proper go today – there is top class sport on offer!

2.45 Ascot: Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2), 1m

I’m prepared to take on favourite Arod. He’s clearly top class but the slight drop in trip is not sure to suite on lightning fast ground. He is a fair price, but nothing more.

In the same ownership, progressive Lightning Spear made giant strides this season. He followed up on an impressive display at Lingfield with an even more impressive performance at Salisbury last month. Bumped at the start, stuck in traffic until late, he stormed clear under 9st 10lb when finally in the clear. He’s a major player today.

The joker, if you wanna say so, is Bow Creek. Excellent last season, he was clearly not himself on his seasonal reappearance at Sandown earlier this year. If he can find back to his best he’s dangerous.

Lightning Spear @ 7/2 VC – 5pts Win

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2.35 Newmarket: Superlative Stakes (Group 2), 7f

Hard to look past Aiden O’Brien’s extremely well bred Air Vice Marshal. He was pretty green on his debut but came on a truckload the next time. Admittedly, the maiden he won at Gowran Park isn’t worth an awful lot but the way he did it was ultra impressive. He could have won by any distance. He is good looking, big and scopey and has the pedigree to do well as a juvenile

Main danger is William Haggas’s War Department. Forget his Ascot run, it just wasn’t to happen for him that day. He looked good on his debut though and should be competitive today. But on the prices, I feel the Irish raider is  overpriced and should be a full point shorter in my book

Air Vice Marshal @ 3/1 Coral – 10pts Win

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3.45 Newmarket: July Cup (Group 1), 6f

Two big prices against the two hot favourites: Due Diligence is one. I’m inclined to give him one last chance. At this time last year he had the world at his mercy, yet things didn’t go right from there on. Two disappointing efforts this year, a particularly dismal one at Royal Ascot – it might be that he has never recovered from his injury – but Aiden O’Brien wouldn’t bring him over if he wouldn’t think Due Diligence is in with a chance.

The other one I like is Danzeno. Rather lightly raced, he may still be able to pull out a bit more. He was unlucky at Newcastle last month following his excellent seasonal reappearance in the Temple Stakes. Trip, track and ground are sure to suit perfectly.

Danzeno @ 20/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win
Due Diligence @ 25/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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4.55 Newmarket: Class 2 Nursery, 7f

Favourite Majdool was very impressive at Chelmsford over this trip, albeit it was a poor maiden. He was fair runner-up behind Beaverbrook before, however, so is clearly the one to beat today on that evidence. Spongy shares collateral form with him and has a chance on the weights today, but probably needs a bit further given the way he stayed on to win lto.

Mark Johnston has his juveniles in top form this season. Aleko is no exception. Off the mark in a 6f maiden in excellent style, he failed to follow up at Epsom, though. Might be wise to ignore that run as he missed the break and was never comfortable at the track throughout. The step up to 7f is sure to suit on pedigree, and this well bred individual should do better now in nurseries.

Aleko @ 4/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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5.05 Ascot: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 4f

Space Age performance at Royal Ascot was freakish to a point, given his wide draw and the frenetic pace he set – yet it seemed it suited him to be in front alone. H deserves to be hot favourite today. He is up by 8lb but could be well able to defy this new mark.

But it’s Dartmouth who appears to be quite well handicapped, given he wasn’t disgraced in the very same race and can race off the same mark. He had a wide draw to overcome and had to travel three wide. throughout. Given the circumstances he ran a fine race. He is well bred, still lightly raced, and can do better today.

Dartmouth @ 8/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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Oracolo can outrun his price!

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Newmarket Rowley Mile False Rail

8.30 Newmarket: Handicap, Class 4

I really like the Cape Cross gelding Oracolo in this open looking race. Rated a fair 71 on his handicap debut, he appeals as the type to improve with age.

He needed three attempts to get off the mark last year, finished third on his second start in a good Redcar maiden and won at Wolverhampton eventually in a decent race. Thhat day he gave the impression of talent individual as he had to overcome a wide draw which is never an advantage there, but made eye-catchingly progress from 3f out on the wide outside and won the race in a photo in the end.

Step up to 1m is sure to suit on pedigree, Jamie Spencer booked may indicate that a good run is expected on his seasonal reappearance. Interestingly he has also been gelded over the winter. In a nutshell – there could be plenty more to come. In this open little race he looks a big price!

Oracolo @ 16/1 Coral – 5pts win 

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Guineas Weekend Review

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The flat season is well and truly alive! Not only that, but time moves quickly and we now have also the first Classic of the new season behind us! So let’s quickly recap on what happened over the last weekend….

Gleneagles’s a proper miler…..

Isn’t he? You couldn’t say anything else after an impressive display over the Rowley Mile on Saturday. Yes, he had pretty much everything going for himself. Perfect draw, ground to suit and gaps opened when you would have wanted them to open for him.

Says he got an inch perfect ride from Ryan Moore and had the class to take advantage of the gaps when it was most needed. He romped home, stayed strongly the new trip and the 2¼ lengths winning margin is a fair reflection of how much better he is than the rest. For the moment at least.

Gleneagles


No excuses for…..

Estidhkaar! Yes, it probably was an advantage to be in the stand side group, but no, that isn’t an excuse for his flat performance. Hanagan hard at work from over three furlongs out – Estidhkaar was simply not good enough.

My assumption proved right that the Greenham result was a rather freakish one, and I find it amusing that connections now try to blame the quick Newmarket ground on his poor Guineas performance, when he performed so well in blistering quick conditions at Newbury before.


Ivawood and The Brave One….

Ivawood - 2000 Guineas

There were plenty of horses a bit unlucky of not getting the best of runs in the 2.000 Guineas. But two individuals do stand out for me in terms of proving a point:

Ivawood clearly stayed the trip and his third place is a very strong result given the fact that he didn’t have the benefit of travelling in the favoured stand side group. Only two horses from single figure stalls finished in the top eight eventually – he was the best of them.

Ivawood was gutsy and showed loads of talent, while not having quite a smooth ride as he had to angle out and fight for his gap. The Irish 2.000 Guineas is next on the agenda for him where he’s going to take on Gleneagles again. He may be able to finish closer then.

Home Of The Brave is an unlikely eye-catcher but in fact he was a strong one for me. He set a true pace for the stand side group and was there till the final furlong marker but didn’t quite see out the trip in the end.

He still finished a good sixth for all of that and he may can win a less demanding pattern race over a mile with an easy lead, or probably preferably, would be dropped back to 7f. He clearly confirmed that his fine victory in the Free Handicap (Listed) was no fluke.


Telescope finds a way to get beaten… again!

Telescope

He was the short priced favourite in a four runner affair and looked certain to win the Jockey Club Stakes. But he got beaten – once again. Probably Ryan Moore let him loose a bit too early, yet he should have been good enough to fend off Second Step.

In his last seven starts Telescope was either short favourite or joint favourite. He won only one of these and becomes an expensive commodity to follow. Bookies on the other hand are likely to erect a statue for him.


Twilight Son is Pattern Class….

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It was only a Handicap, but it’s also been only his third career start. Twilight Express was impressive to win the 6f sprint for three year old’s. Particularly in the way he did it.

This race resulted in the fastest finish on the card and Twilight Son ran just 12.18s for the concluding uphill furlong.  There is clearly much more to come from this Kyllachy son.


Legatissimo a legitimate Oaks favourite!

David Wachman’s filly stormed home to land the 1.000 Guineas in some style. Though this may be a slightly disappointing result for the fillies’ mile division – as she is clearly not a miler but very much a middle-distance horse.

Many of the better fancied fillies didn’t handle ground or trip or track or all of that combined. But you can’t make excuses for everything and personally I’m slightly disappointed with the race. Lucida is potentially the one to take out of it, though. She got hampered at the start and ran out a nice second place.

Legatissimo on the other hand came into this race on the back of a Listed success over 9.5 furlongs. So to see her romping home in the way she did, dropping back to a mile, was impressive and says allot about her individual class, but also about the lack of class of most of her rivals in the field.

Anyway, she is obviously a very legitimate Oaks favourite now. On pedigree she is entitled to stay thus far, no problem. Out of a Montjeu mare, you would hope that there is more to come once she steps up in trip again.


False Rail is a positive move….

Newmarket Rowley Mile False Rail

Admittedly, the newly introduced false rail didn’t prevent the field from splitting into two groups in the 2.000 Guineas, nonetheless it is a positive move and I would hope this experiment will continue. More tracks should follow suit.

Why? Because it helps to prevent horses from finding themselves short of room on the inside rail when coming from off the pace. It works at Dundalk rather well for example, where this was a huge problem for many years before the introduction of a false rail.

It also works well in other racing jurisdictions. I In this context I always like to point to South Africa where false rails are a common theme at every track. It makes for fair and exciting racing more often than not. There is no reason why it shouldn’t be in place over here as well.


Tiggy Wiggy….

Impressed me in the 1000 Guineas. She performed much better than I would have thought. Positive tactics and fast ground helped her to get home rather well over a trip that stretches her stamina to a maximum.

She’ll be reverted back to sprinting now and will be a force in that particular division this season I’d reckon.


Personal Experience….

National Stud

It’s been the second year running that I went over to Newmarket to witness the 2.000 Guineas. Becomes a bit of a tradition now?! I really like the Rowley Mile. It’s a nice track, good facilities, good viewing (if binoculars on hand) and despite a huge crowd on Saturday, it never felt uncomfortable at all. Perfect!

Took in this time also some proper sightseeing as I already arrived on Friday. Walking up the legendary Warren Hill was quite an experience. Knew this place only from the comfort of my couch and TV. It’s really steep, isn’t it?!

Next stop was the National Stud. Said hello to Toronado and Dick Turpin and rounded up the day with a beautiful walk along the July Course and the Rowley Mile in splendid sunshine. Saturday followed the Guineas – it’s been fantastic I have to say.

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All Photos Credit: Florian Christoph

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Marma’s Boy can exploit lenient opening mark

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Intriguing Handicap for three year old’s. I feel there is a wrong favourite at the top of the market, or at least the favourite is way too short compared to the rest.

That says Muqtaser done really well to finish a close 3rd over course and distance last month here. He is proven in these conditions and is sure to give a good account. But on that exact performance he doesn’t appear to be particularly well handicapped off a 1lb higher mark. He had the run of the race that day compared to some others and still wasn’t capable of winning. This here doesn’t look much easier. He’s opposable at short odds.

Godolphin’s Global Force looks more like a good price. He won a CD maiden last month and gave the impression to be a smart individual. I like him and he may well up to pattern class, but he has to be if he wants to overcome a pretty high opening mark of 94. The handicapper has allotted him a pretty tough assignment for a start. He may well be good enough, but not sure if I really want to find that out with my money with better alternatives from a handicapping perspective.

The only positive for Mustard is the jockey booking of Ryan Moore. Otherwise he looks too slow and on a high enough mark considering his handicap debut at Leicester in a lesser race. The step up in trip doesn’t seem to suit Azraff on pedigree. He is a good price but I find it hard to fancy him here off a big mark. Lostock Hall has to prove that he really wants 10f.

The two most intriguing runners are certainly the two bottom weights. Brotherly Company stepped up to 1m 2f in a Redcar maiden last month and won easily on quick ground. He defies his pedigree and that is something I’m slightly worried about. It was not a particularly strong race, he had it all from the front – this is tougher. But off 81 he is one that could be better than the mark if he truly gets the trip.

Without a question Marma’s Boy is overpriced. Yes, he didn’t beat much at Wolverhampton last month when he got off the mark in a 10f maiden on his seasonal reappearance. But he couldn’t have been more impressively. It was only his fourth start, his first over 10f and there is more to come with the trip surely to suit and the switch to turf and quick ground seemingly not an issue judged and last years maiden form. It remains to be seen if he is up to this class, but an opening mark off 79 could be lenient.

5.25 Newmarket: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f
Marma’s Boy @ 9/1 Coral – 5pts win

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Preview – 1.000 Guineas

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Rowley Mile

The ground for Sunday remains quick at Newmarket’s Rowley Mile – perfect conditions for an exciting renewal of the 1.000 Guineas. The field may lack an obvious superstar at this stage, but  maybe there’s a new one born as soon as the horses have been crossing the winning post? We will see. It certainly looks a wide open affair.

The Favourite:

Godolphin’s Lucida is currently at the head of the market. She replaced long-time favourite Found in that particular position. The Ballydoyle filly is out, though, and her abscense has ripped a big hole into the betting market. Lucida is currently trading a 6/1 chance – not exactly a favourite in the true meaning of the word, is it?

The Shamardal filly hasn’t done too much wrong in her career. She was a progressive juvenile, finishing a close second behind Cursory Glance in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, while following up with an impressive success in the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket. Subsequently stepped up to 1m on her final start in 2014, she finished only fourth but the soft ground was probably against her.

One would think that on pedigree the 1m trip is ideal, so is the quick ground. Question mark is – did she train on? We haven’t seen her this season yet and have to find out this afternoon. She is a pretty good chance on her two year old form, though.

The Challengers:

Fadhayyil, currently a 7/1 chance, finished a good runner-up behind Lucida at Newmarket last year in the Rockfel. She has only had three starts to date and won only a maiden, but the step up to 1m looks sure to suit. If she can improve a bit for experience and distance, she is fairly closely matched with Lucida. We haven’t seen her this year either, though.

Lightly raced Jellicle Ball only won a Kempton maiden to date but clearly stepped up to pattern class when she repapered last month in the Fred Darling Stakes over seven furlongs. She is well bred and talented. With the recent run under her belt she’s bound to come on a good deal for an excellent runner-up effort that day. She is supposed to be better over further, so 1m looks a perfect trip for the moment. She is a big runner and money is coming for her.

David Wachman’s exciting Legatissimo won a Listed event over 9.5 furlongs last week. She loves the quick ground and is clearly very talented, but the drop in trip isn’t sure to suit her. However she is the choice of Ryan Moore and has to be respected for that simple reason.

Royal Ascot winner Osaila proved that she trained on thanks to a gutsy success in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes over 7f last month. She has good form over 1m from her only start over this trip when she ran out a fine 3rd at the Breeders Cup. She will need to improve a good deal, though, in order to be competitive today, I feel.

The Raven’s Pass filly Malabar proved her class in hot Group 1 races last year. Good performances in the Prix Marcel Boussac and Moyglare Stud Stakes give her a fair form chance if she has trained on. Recent Fred Darling scorer Redstart is not out of this either. She won well but has to improve for the new trip here again and one would think that runner-up Jellicle Bell is a better prospect, given that Redstart had everything going for herself from the front, which might not be the case here today.

The Outsiders:

There is plenty of money coming for Tiggy Wiggy. She is now into 10’s which is madness in my eyes. Apologies for the harsh words – but I have to be honest here. Maybe I eat my words afterwards, but that’s fine. I simply can’t see her stay. She is all speed on pedigree. She is all speed on visual impression. And she has been a precocious two year old sprinter, who doesn’t look to have grown allot over the winter. Others make simply much more appeal.

UAE Guineas and Derby winner Local Time is an interesting runner. She won at Newmarket over 7f last season but has particularly excelled on the Dirt this year at Meydan. if she can translate this form to turf now, she is not out of it. That says more is required here and others may have more scope.

Aiden O’Brien’s sole runner is Weld Park Stakes winner Qualify. She was a good two year old but has to step up a good deal here, as well as has to overcome a trip that looks like stretching her stamina. Irish Rookie won a Listed race over course and distance last November. Much more is needed today and the ground is a question mark too. Kodiac filly Terror looks up against it over this new trip.

Leaves me with the biggest outsider of them all – Queen Nefertiti. This Galileo filly, trained my David Wachman appears to be pretty overpriced in my eyes. A 33/1 shot at the moment, you can get 1/4 odds and 4 places with Paddy Power – this looks big value. Why? Well, this filly won on her debut last year a good maiden in pretty taking style and was ever since thought to be a Guineas horse.

She made her seasonal reappearance at Dundalk recently, the day when I was there and to be honest I really liked what I saw. She looked excellent in the parade ring, clearly has trained on and finished a nice third in a hot little race while only beaten in a very tight finish. She travelled strongly throughout, but gave the impression of greenness in the closing stages when she seemed to be a bit intimidated by the other horses beside her. She was literally sandwiched in the final half furlong, and didn’t stick her neck out as a consequence.

I would expect Queen Nefertiti to come on a good bit for the run. She should have learned plenty as well and with trip and ground very likely to suit, this extremely well bred filly could be able to outrun her big price tag. She is my selection against the field, in a wide open renewal, where I probably most like the Gosden filly – but can’t see 7/1 as a particularly appealing price.

1.000 Guineas – Newmarket; 1m, Group 1
Queen Nefertiti @ 33/1 Paddy Power – 0.5pts e/w

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Educate will relish Newmarket conditions

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A couple more selections for Newmarket’s Guineas card. The supporting races are pretty good, though not overwhelmingly classy. However the last race on the card, the 1m Handicap, looks the pick of them all in terms of future prospects and it’ll be particularly interesting to see how the favourite Mutasayyid fares – he beat my Guineas fancy Intilaaq in a maiden last season in quite good style!

Says this is not a race I want to have a bet in. But there are two other races that do offer some value indeed:

2.00 Newmarket: Suffolk Stakes (Handicap, C2)

In the context of the race I feel Educate is a rather big price. His recent form isn’t all that inspiring, but he ran in hot Group races with credit. He drops back into a Handicap now and with that comes a further slip in the ratings.

In fact he is now down to his last winning mark off 104. Off this mark he was successful in the prestigious Cambridgeshire, back in 2013 over course and distance. That says today’s conditions at Newmarket are no problem for Educate by any means.

He loves fast ground, as he won the Cambridgeshire in similar conditions as another two races on good to firm. With William Buick in the saddle, he is bound to be ready for a big run today.

Educate @ 8/1 PP – 5pts Win

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2.30 Palace House Stakes (Group 3)

This looks a race that should be all about the fast conditions. For that reason I do like the filly Online Alexander. She usually gets beaten when the word soft appears in the ground description but won three times on anything faster than good.

I do like sprinters to improve from three to four years of age and she might be one that has more to offer now as an older filly. Matured and more experienced, there could easily be more to come.

Fresh off a break, she gets her conditions today and could easily improve for that in a way that would see her going close. That says fillies have a horrible record in this race, so I only have a small punt. But on price, she is the one that sticks out to me.

Online Alexander @ 14/1 Stan James – 2.5pts Win

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Exciting Intilaaq good enough to win Guineas

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Wide open renewal this year – a shame that my long term ante-post pick Highland Reel isn’t going to run. So I had to look for an alternative. I felt seriously tempted to take the 7/2 available for Gleneagles this morning. He was so much shorter earlier the week, but has now been pushed out to an attractive looking price.

Gleneagles has been a brilliant, precocious juvenile, a winner of five of his six career starts. His trademark turn of foot saw him beating good rivals in in multiple Group races, including the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh – the top 2yo race in Ireland.

He’ll be primed for the race today. It is his big target and he should have a good chance to go close. That says later the year I would expect others to improve past him. And what about today? Well, I feel already in this Guineas field there might be enough rivals able to improve to a level close- if not better. He can be beaten and after all he is a fair price, but there are alternatives.

Stable mate Ol’ Man River is equally a very attractive prospect. He is out of a 1.000 Guineas winning mare. Question mark is his sire: Montjeu. His offspring usually doesn’t quite excel over 1m at the highest level. At 8/1 I can oppose him.

Estidhkaar is the hype horse. I know many like him – I don’t Personally I can’t believe his recent strong seasonal reappearance in the Greenham until confirmed again. Today is his chance to do so. That race was a strange one and I thought he doesn’t look like one likely to improve an awful lotfrom what he has done as a juvenile. The jury is out on him today.

I’m not sure if Ivawood truly stays the trip. He finished okayish in 3rd in the Greenham but more is required here. Elm Park has the Derby on the forefront of his mind and conditions today may not suit.

The one I feel is really overpriced is the exciting Roger Varian inmate Intilaaq. Lightly raced – he had only one start as a juvenile, and repapered at Newbury last month for his second career outing. Always in front, he set a frenetic pace and produced a dramatic turn of foot to win easily. Albeit only a maiden race, ordinary horses don’t do that.

This was a mightily impressive performance and he is bound to improve quite a bit. He is lovely bred and should be able to progress with time and age. That’s what his pedigree is pointing to. It’s a tough ask nonetheless for an inexperienced horse to go to Newmarket and try to win a Guineas. That days Intilaaq seems to be an extremely talented individual and he has a better chance of winning the race than his price suggests.

3.45 Newmarket: 2.000 Guineas
Intilaaq @ 11/1 PP – 5pts win

United Kingdom

Azmaam’s overpriced in Newmarket Stakes

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Newmarket Rowley Mile

With Aiden O’Brien’s Aloft out, this looks a strange little race. Nothing really sticks out and everything depends on the potential improvement to come from each individual runner. That says on pure form I believe Azmaam is hugely overpriced. This lightly raced Dark Angel colt is bound to run a big race!

His three year old campaign started in the 200k Tattersalls Millions over course and distance last montj. Azmaam was a fair juvenile but went with clear doubts about his stamina into this race. He travelled like a dream though, but didn’t get a run whatsoever until the final furlong marker when he got finally into the clear, albeit only briefly, producing an instant turn of foot which looked like to be a decisive move, just to run out off room again soon after.

It’s fair to say that with a clear run he probably would have won. The winner of the race went on to finish a creditable runner-up in a Group 3 subsequently, so this form looks not a bad one at all.

Same conditions here for this 1m 2f contest at Newmarket and Azmaam must have a big chance to win this if he is in the same kind of form and can get a clearer run this time.

Newmarket Stakes (Listed), 1m 2f
Azmaam @ 7/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win