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Betting

All-Weather Monday Selections: 6th March 2023

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5.30 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Mustaffiz ran a huge race last week at Chelmsford when 3rd in a seriously hot race where the first and second ran to career-best or near career-best speed ratings.

He was tracking the pace from an advanced midfield position and travelled really well as he approached the home straight. Switching for the centre of the track may have cost him momentum, when perhaps going for the clear passage toward the inside would have been the better option.

Suddenly he found himself with a clear a passage and bumped into the eventual winner in a fight for space. He held on for third but had no chance with the first two home.

The gelding has nicely progressed from run to run lately, since his mark has dropped to a more realistic level and when he caught the eye as a potential improver early last month, as he ran quite well, slightly better than the 5/10 finish would make you believe the next time, followed by the aforementioned lto performance.

This is an easier race as he drops into 0-60 but stays on the same 60 mark. He’s been given an obvious chance to win and has the added bonus of a nice low draw and should enjoy the fast pace to track.

10pts win – Mustaffiz @ 13/2

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6.00 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

The handicap newcomers could be intriguing contenders, you just don’t know what you going to get with them. The more proven form in the race is certainly beatable.

That says unexposed over the 6 furlong trip is also Turbo Tiger, who showed promising signs when last seen over the minimum trip at Newcastle last month.

That day he moved quickly and keenly forward, probably wasting quite a bit of energy in the early part of the race. He was swamped over 1f out, seemingly flat footed, before coming back for more in the final half furlong.

That was impressive. Only a horse in good form can do that. It also appeared he clearly has the stamina for 6 furlongs, given how he seemingly enjoyed the stiff finish at Newcastle.

He was freshly gelded only a few weeks prior and it was good to see that he improved a bit from his previous seven career runs. Although, he wasn’t disgraced in the majority of those, ran with credit and didn’t always got the luckiest of runs.

There is a danger that he is too keen over 6 furlongs, but I feel everything we saw so far points to him wanting the additional furlong and confidence grows as he’s a full-brother to a decent sprinter who does his best over 6f, with a 2/2 record on the All-Weather over 6f.

This here represents a drops in class, taking on slightly lesser opposition and may be more significant than the paltry pound he lost in his official rating.

Having the #1 is a huge bonus in a race with not too much pace. He can just move forward easily to grab the lead and hopefully never to be seen again.

10pts win – Turbo Tiger @ 11/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 27th February 2023

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7.30 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Competitive race that should be fast and furious as many are keen to go forward. I also have three eyecatchers running here. I still want to get involved.

Favourite Glorious Charmer is one of those who will look to get some of that early pace. Bidding for a hat-trick, the #5 draw may not be an issue, but he must overcome a new handicap mark of 56. He hasn’t run beyond a speed rating of 52 in the last two years. Looks poor value.

Bang On The Bell down in trip after a recent comeback run makes a lot of appeal. He may be able to come with a strong finish thanks to the fast pace. But a #9 draw is a disadvantage and has a poor record over this C&D.

Of course I have to like the chances of Proclivity, and to a lesser extend Prince Of Rome. The former ran a huge race last time out. He should run his race, though possibly showed too much of his hand lto to be considered well handicapped in this field and pace scenario.

Prince Of Rome won’t have his own way up front. I felt there were not too many excuses last time. 2lb lower than lto is intriguing but the fact he hasn’t run speed ratings that match or better his current mark in a long time tell the tale. Not giving up quite yet on him, but it has to be another day.

Veteran Astrophysics was an excellent winner over course and distance two weeks ago. This is tougher but he could get a nice lead into the home straight from the #3 draw.

No question, though, the one I want to be on here is the filly Sharron Macready. I am more than happy to give her another chance after last weeks poor effort at Southwell.

She finally dropped to the minimum trip there but after an awkward start was once again mad keen. She just went off too hard and burned out quickly.

There is no doubt she is better than that. She was often overly keen in many of her races over 6 furlongs. But ran well, often better than the bare form. The September performance here Wolverhampton over 6f was especially noteworthy. I also liked her Kempton run two starts ago when she kept answering the challenges.

This will only be her second ever opportunity over the minimum trip. She is still lightly enough raced to remain open to improvement, especially if she can settle better.

The expected fast pace can only help her I believe here. So does the #1 draw. She can move forward, using her early speed to get to the front, while others have to do more to get to their preferred position.

Tongue tie and hood are fitted. That could help her to settle better. If it does indeed then I am more than hopeful she proves better than her current 64 handicap mark.

I also take it as an encouraging sign that connections run her so quickly back to back with the new headgear. Strike while the iron is hot – she seems ripe to win, if she can relax a bit better.

Not that it means much, perhaps, but the early prices have quickly vanished as well, but I am more than delighted having snapped up across the night an overall price that is possibly quite a number of points too big as it gives the risk of the filly not settling too much weight, in my view.

She is probably the second best horse in the race with the likelihood of an ideal trip she has no excuses and every chance to outrun the price tag.

10pts win – Sharron Macready @ 7/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 20th February 2023

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7.00 Newcastle: Classified Stakes, 1m

This is a seriously poor race but Otto Oyl looks to have a clear edge in this contest, especially with an eye catching jockey booking after an eye catching recent run.

Hence I am prepared to get involved at a price that I still think is at least a point too big. I rarely back horses at prices this short. But I feel as confident as can be that the short odds still represent value, for a variety of reasons.

Current favourite Odd Socks Havana, who won this very race last year, comes here in solid form, as he won last time out. Nonetheless, I don’t think he should be close to the same price as Otto Oyl. He’s clearly an inferior horse, I believe.

In 34 career runs Odd Socks Havana posted a career best 45 speed rating. That’s even in the context of this poor contest desperately low.

No Diggity looks the main danger. He also won last time out. His last two efforts suggest he’s in fine form, having ran pretty close to his career best speed rating – not that it would set an incredibly high standard, though.

Otto Oyl, in contrast, looks clearly a level above his opposition, if he can follow up from his eye catching effort produced last week at Wolverhampton.

That day he moved forward from the widest draw to grab the lead just before entering the first turn. He gave ground away throughout as he went wide round every turn, seemingly difficult to steer.

The lady Amateur jockey on book clearly had issues controlling the gelding. Nonetheless, he travelled notably well for long enough, still going okay entering the home straight, before getting badly tired.

He came off a small break there and can be upgraded for the run. On speed ratings Otto Oyl has a clear edge in this field and with Oisin Murphy booked he must have a cracking chance over a trip and its stiff finish likely to suit. He looks hard to beat.

10pts win – Otto Oyl @ 5/2

Betting

Monday Selections: 13th February 2023

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May Remain ran a huge race for 3rd place after setting off way too fast in the not quite so ‘luckly’ last at Southwell.

Obviously having to overcome the wide draw didn’t help, and Elle-May Croot wasn’t capable to slow things down once she got the gelding to the front of the race, before he tiered into 3rd in the final furlong.

I was surprised about the drift to SP 11/1. I maintain that he had a much, much better chance than that and the run confirmed this. It wasn’t the result I hoped for, but even in defeat I must say this was probably my strongest bet of the year, despite the lower price I backed. I would have done this one every time.

Important to acknowledge a winning bet isn’t always a good bet and a losing bet isn’t always a bad one.

Getting in early for Monday – not sure if this sort of price holds up for the selection; I hope it doesn’t as that’s the first positive sign; but similarly to May Remain on Sunday, I was surprised to see this price available and getting it matched to my full stake, so early in the evening, for whatever that is worth.

……..

5.00 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Good draw, minimum trip, reduced mark and poor opposition: I couldn’t asked for a better scenario for Prince Of Rome. He must be a huge chance here.

It was nearly four weeks ago that he caught the eye over this course and distance after an awkward start from a wide draw, as he bumped into a rival, settled off pace, swerved very wide around the bend relegated to last, but finished very much the best, despite not having a clear run.

That was his Comeback run after a long lay-off. He also changed yards in January. He was possibly a bit disappointing when last seen over the same C&D, although, I think the widest draw was a contributing factor as he travelled wide on the outside chasing the pace for the first half of the race.

He’s going to enjoy the #1 draw tis time to help attack the race from the front, or certainly close to the pace. It’s likely that Boom The Groom and Battle Point want to rush forward from their wide draw to grab the early pace, but that can only suit POR who could sit on the inside in second or third, ground saving, relishing a good gallop.

Down to a mark of 57 he looks potentially well-handicapped now, given he ran better than the bare form on his two last runs since the return to racing.

It’s also noteworthy in the context of his overall profile. He’s a better horse on the All-Weather, and didn’t have too many chances to race on the sand since late 2021. Down to a career-lowest mark, 12lb lower than his last AW run prior the his comeback this January, he appears to be a fair bit classier, than most of his rivals here.

The market looks unsettled and undecided as this early stage, so I am getting in as early as possible as I hope to have got it right in saying this is his “D-Day”. Smarkets and Matchbook combined matched my full stake at a price that represents sensational value in my book.

Battle Point is another eyecatcher for me in this race. But his wide draw could see him him use too much energy early on, I imagine. Hopefully we get another day with him, as he remains of interest.

10pts win – Prince Of Rome @ 7/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 6th February 2023

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It was lovely to continue the good start to the month of February when Mogok Valley ran away with his race at Kempton in the final furlong as his stamina kicked in.

I must say I was surprised to see him go off 11/1 BSP. I felt he was a more than solid 9/2 shot at the very least. Obviously, everything worked to perfection with a hot pace to aim at and MV finding a super spot just a few lengths off the pace.

Call it luck, that it went this exact way,… perhaps I was due some fortune, anyway.

New eyecatchers will likely drop Monday evening. The bank holiday weekend helps to clear the backlog of races to watch. Quite excited about the ones that caught the eye already. Now, all that’s needed is me being brave enough to back them. The amount of winners I missed out on in January isn’t funny.

That shows: finding the winners – in theory – is the easy bit. It’s the psychology of the game that’s the difficult part.

…….

5.30 Wolverhampton: Class H&H Handicap, 7f

I am dipping my toes into a type of race I normally avoid. Dark Design looks a strong chance, no doubt; however, if he gets the trip, then Big Impact could run away with this.

He ran an number of strong races lately, the last two especially are excellent form – he’s top-weight here for a good reason. This is much easier than all the rivals he encountered in the last while.

Two back he had the widest draw and was less than two lengths beaten behind two in-form horses. Last time out he caught my eye even more so, giving the impression he’s possibly ready to strike.

That day he reared in the stall, was bumped right after start, still moved forward quickly to grab solid spot tracking the pace. Held up behind the leaders, hew was slightly impeded as much as squeezed around the home turn, briefly losing some momentum as a consequence. Hi finished well enough against inside rail.

He’s a pound lower today, and has ran a number of times to speed ratings in the 50’s – his last seven since November read: 56, 51, 57, 11, 54, 56, 50. One lesser run, all other runs solid to strong.

Usually he is a solid starter and up with the pace, travelling well as much as one-paced and honest. Those seem ideal characteristics for a hands & heels race.

The trip is the question mark. He never tried to race beyond 6 furlongs. In his races, especially when he won, he tends to find in the closing stages, though.

His sire Lethal Force is all speed but his offspring gets 7f on the All-Weather just fine, especially if fancied. A god #3 should ensure Big Impact get’s it easy enough to find a good spot behind the pace setters. Obviously dropping in would the worst case scenario.

Trainer Robyn Brisland has a 30% strike rate (A/E 1.75) in Apprentice Handicaps over last year, while jockey Liam Wright rides well in hands & heels races. This feels worth the risk at given prices.

10pts win – Big Impact @ 17/2

Betting

Monday Selections: 23rd January 2023

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Two lovely winners this week, yet it was a week filled with frustration, nonetheless. Put simply: all too often I was “riding” the wrong horse, or conversely: not riding the right horse.

Saturday epitomised this fact in no uncertain ways: Paddy K – well backed from 7/1 to 9/4 – finished a good runner-up… behind Ustath. Of course. It couldn’t have been any different. The same Ustath I backed 24h earlier, when he finished 2nd.

My mood wasn’t lifted when I saw that Eye Of The Water – another eyecatcher I have been monitoring for the right day for quite some time – won the Wolverhampton opener. Unbacked. Of course.

It’s always good to see work validated, the eyecatchers have been running sensationally well this winter so far. But their victories found their way into my P & L sheet not nearly as often. Decisions, decisions…

Anyway, the latest edition – with 16 largely new entries to the list – can be found here: All-Weather Eyecatchers.

On a different topic: we’re less than a week away from the Cape Met. South Africa’s most important Group 1 race over 10 furlongs. I am fairly sweet on recent G1 Paddock Stakes winner Make It Snappy.

Top-class fillies have a strong record in the race. Make It Snappy’s brave style of racing reminds me of one of my all-time favourite fillies: Igugu! She won the Met 11 years ago, against a backdrop of pre-race worries and during the race when she looked beaten only to come back for more.

Class, guts, all heart: Igugu.

…..

1.50 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Favourite Lordsbridge Girl hasn’t really impressed on speed ratings yet, hence I’m more than happy to take the filly on with a recent eyecatcher, that is 5-year-old gelding Wake Up Harry.

He should have a massive chance up in trip and significantly down in class (he drops from 0-75 into 0-65) after an excellent run over shorter 7 furlongs at Lingfield earlier this month.

That day he was restrained after a path forward was blocked early on, then travelling smoothly off the pace. He was still going well when turning for home, although perhaps turning wider than ideal, before unleashing a solid challenge in the home straight from to furlongs to the final furlong marker. He didn’t quite have the speed to get to leaders and came from too far back, and wasn’t able to sustain his effort in the closing stages.

Nonetheless, he appears to be hitting peak form. He didn’t race over the right trip the last two runs and one can forgive the comeback run after a long break.

He looks all set for being unleashed here tomorrow, though. A mile suits him really well, he’s got a 4-1-2 record but hasn’t ran over it since his final run before a gelding operation back in May 2021.

It’s clear that he was well too highly rated after a promising in maiden and novice races, but is down to a more than fair 65 handicap mark. John Egan comes here for this one ride only, which could be significant, too.

I usually don’t get involved in such a short price, but this gelding should be still quite a bit shorter, in my book.

10pts win – Wake Up Harry @ 11/4

Betting

Monday Selections: 16th January 2023

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4.20 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 9.5f

Tricky opener to Wolverhampton’s Monday card: every horse in the field attempts a new trip or is going to make their handicap debut – it’s a somewhat muddy picture.

At the same time I believe there is about three horses with a prime chance: those are Densetsu, Marmara Star and Smooth Ryder.

The two fillies look bound to improve for the trip on handicap debut, so should the gelding, especially back on the All-Weather. If I can, though, I try to oppose fillies and mares during the winter, hence I am more interested in Smooth Ryder.

This US bred son of Smooth Daddy cost quite a bit of money as a yearling and looks clearly bred to excel over this sort of trip on the sand. He’s not fulfilled the promise of his price tag, and has been gelded in November. However, he showed some promise, at least for what’s required on this lowly level, in his first two starts especially, in my view.

Those came on the All-Weather, incidentally. He was green and raw on debut, but made some solid progress in the home straight, after a rough start to his life as a racehorse.

His second run over the same CD – 7 furlongs at Chelmsford – was quite eye-catching, as he jumped quickly and led the field, setting solid fractions and travelling well into the home straight, before fading.

Those horses ahead of him are all much higher rated today – the winner even as high as 98, other in the 80’s.

Given the trip was certainly on the sharp side, Smooth Ryder ran seriously well that day. When last seen on heavy ground he clearly didn’t enjoy the going, and it’s a form best to ignore.

An opening mark of 61 looks more than fair, judged on the Chelmsford performance, especially as he is back on the sand, and goes up to 9.5 furlongs. Franny Norton is in the saddle, for this one ride only today.

Given the gelding has shown alertness from the gate I expect him to move forward from the #1 draw. There aren’t too many concerns about the trip on pedigree, so a positive ride shouldn’t compromise his chances.

A concern is the drift in the betting. But I reckon not many will truly have a grasp on what we get from this bunch today and I happily back him at what looks potentially generous odds.

10pts win – Smooth Ryder @ 6/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 9th January 2023

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5.30 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Apprentice Handicap, 7f

I’ve got three running from the latest Eyecatcher list. Not ideal. Thankfully I’ve got clear conditions set out for Jupiter Express and Desert Dream, and they aren’t met here.

They should still be fancied runners. In contrast, few in this field I regard as serious contenders. But knowing this race isn’t ideal for either Jupiter Express nor Desert Dream means they aren’t value for the win, in my view.

That leaves Healing Power. This looks a perfect opportunity for the 7-year-old gelding, in comparison. Let’s first review his most recent effort, that got him an entry on the eyecatchers:

Three weeks ago at Lingfield, he lead from the front, albeit pestered by a rival throughout. He set a good, even pace throughout. He was still leading at the final furlong marker, before headed over half a furlong from home by the eventual winner and runner-up, who came from off the pace. He managed to hold on for third eventually.

I believe this is strong form – on an individual level, because speed ratings confirmed an excellent figure of 59; form wise – because winner and second ran to higher than- or equal speed figures to their handicap mark. The winner went back-to-back and followed up with another strong 2nd place afterwards again.

The handicapper has been surprisingly friendly, having dropped Healing Power by 2lb for this strong performance, that at very least was very much in line with his then current rating, actually.

Off 62, in the right race, Healing Power will be handicapped to win in my view. He ran to 64 and 65 speed ratings within the last half year over 7 furlongs on the All-Weather, and this lto effort confirms his excellent current form.

Is this the right race? Yes and no. It’s not because this is Wolverhampton, Tapeta. His best sand performances all came at either Lingfield or Chelmsford on the polytrack. He also has to overcome a wider than ideal draw in #7. The Furtado yard has a poor spell right now, is 0/16 in the last fortnight.

But the positives outweigh all the negatives. He only raced three times on the Tapeta, was placed once in a hot class 5 contest, with the other two runs came over 6 furlongs and a mile, neither an ideal trip, off higher marks as well.

In class 6 over 7 furlongs he’s 1/5 and placed in 3 more, all those runs with Elle-May Croot in the saddle, who is on board here once again, and who maintains her 7lb claim even in this Apprentice race – with that she has a positive weight advantage to some other apprentices in this field, if they would meet in an ordinary Handicap, in fact.

The draw isn’t ideal, yes; thankfully Healing Power is a quick starter and there isn’t too many horses who are likely to charge forward in this field. The only one is Jupiter Express, who is likely to pull for his head over this trip, but at the same time will give Healing Express a nice focus point, something like a lead horse, who will be setting a fast pace that will suit him help to settle, as otherwise he’s known to pull early, as well.

The yard ran a bit better than the bare form suggest. In the last week 3/6 were placed, while the average SP was in the range of 23/1 for all runners in the last 14 days. Context is key, hence, if talking about the form of a yard.

In summary, Healing Power should have a cracking chance and perhaps should be considered the favourite to win the race, in my view.

The prices on the exchanges are total bonkers for the moment (and you can get on a proper stake; there is even bigger available, but I got the price I got). Of course, you never know in these races. There might be a reason for that. But the price doesn’t put me off at all; I doubt at this stage anybody knows who’s going to be on a going day here.

10pts win – Healing Power @ 10/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 19th December 2022

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Before talking about more mundane things, such as a 0-70 Handicap at Kempton, I must mention the sublime: Charles Dickens!

South Africa has a new superstar – perhaps the most exciting colt for a long time, indeed. When someone like Mike de Kock says this, you must take note:

 “….the best I’ve seen since our own Horse Chestnut won the Guineas 23 years ago”

I’ve been following the progress of this son of Trippi for a while, and certainly felt ever since his Grade 3 Cape Classic victory he could be something special.

Of course, you hope, but you never can be totally sure whether such bonkers performances are real or simply down to some freak conditions on the day. Well, Charles Dickens followed up in similar style, before going into the Grade 1 Cape Guineas as the heavy odds-on favourite on Saturday.

He delivered in the most incredible way possible, in a strong renewal of the Cape Guineas, left his rivals standing still as he changed gear over two furlongs from home. You won’t see many easier winners in a Grade 1.

Spectacular, sublime, unreal, brilliant, outrageous… take your pick. I struggle to find actual words to properly describe this performance!

………….

2.50 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

This is a rather competitive race for a modest Monday card at Kempton. You can make more or less solid cases for probably half the field. The pace scenario is certainly intriguing. Hard to call what’s going to happen.

Favourite Brains is handicapped to win, no doubt: the handbrake was off last time out, when he wasn’t quite the luckiest, though; same mark today, 9lb lower than his last winning mark and a solid 3lb claimer on board.

Obvious chances, however, quite a short price, one I wouldn’t want to trust with my money in a hot race as this, I must say.

There is solid opposition in Covert Mission, who may be a touch too high in the ratings now, but he loves this course and distance and has the form in the book to go close.

Buick on board of Exciting News, on her All-Weather Handicap debut. She will enjoy this additional furlong today and is dangerous off her rating, but ultimately difficult to gauge.

Lost In Time caught the eye two races back – if this is a muddling affair he’s not out of it; although I prefer to see him over 7 furlongs.

No question, though, the one I am really interested in from a betting point of view is Havana Goldrush. A massive eyecatcher when last seen, he confirmed his excellent form, as I felt the two preceding runs deserved to be upgraded for various reasons.

Last time out at Kempton, then over 7 furlongs, he had to overcome the widest draw, was bumped by a rival as the gates opened, was pushed to the outside as a consequence, and had to regain momentum. He found his stride swiftly, and then travelled strongly in the middle of the field.

Seemingly going best in the home straight, when looming large 2 furlongs from home, he failed to put the race to bed, apparently hanging in the closing stages and possibly paying for the trouble at the beginning of the race.

As touched on, his two runs prior to this most recent October race were noteworthy as well: a strong 3rd place in September at Chelmsford over a mile, when he attempted to make all, and possibly was doing too much too soon. A few weeks earlier he finished third over the same CD, when badly hampered at crucial times of the race.

Those performances indicate Havana Goldrush is holding his form quite well, and is ready to strike, when he gets a clear run.

It’s a slightly easier race today, and get the assistance of apprentice Taylor Fisher, who’s value for his 5lb claim. The downside is a wider than ideal draw, although perhaps less of an issue with only seven other rivals in the race.

Havana Goldrush tends to hang in finishes, he’s clearly a tricky sort. Nonetheless, I feel, even in this competitive Handicap, if he gets a clear run, he’s going to be difficult to beat today.

10pts win – Havana Goldrush @5/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 28th November 2022

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One of those times again: not quite happening for me. Three of the last five selections placed. And then there was the the ‘killer’ on Saturday: Milbanke. Backed him a week ago with confidence, when he ran huge for third place, but then let him go unbacked on Saturday, when of course, he won. Autsch.

It’s a frustrating year, in that sense. Too many of those stories. It looks likely to be a losing year now – the first in over five years.

It was also frustrating to see my Summer Cup selection Safe Passage beaten in 2nd place at Turffontein on Saturday; he ran a cracker, but was probably doing too much too soon, going forward from the #10 draw, while the winner, gutsy Puerto Manzano, got a much more quiet ride, always sitting off the pace.

Later that evening Making Music ran a shocker; the drift to 20/1+ gave it away beforehand. I could really do with a nice winner today….

………

3.15 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

I can’t avoid backing Thrave today. Somewhat a ghost I am chasing all season long. Is today the day?

If the handbrake is off Thrave will go close. No question about that. He’s racing over 7 furlongs, down t a mark off 61 – I couldn’t have dreamed up a better opportunity for the seven-year-old gelding.

Last time out the handbrake was clearly on. Even a blind man would have seen that. That run aside, perhaps the Newcastle performance prior was surprisingly poor. Especially because Thrave showed consistency this season, ran well and caught the eye a number of times all year long.

He ran four times to speed ratings of 62+ on turf, although it can be argued he’s a better horse on the All-Weather. In any case, he’s down to a career lowest mark, races over the right trip, with a good draw in a race where he shouldn’t have an issue to be right up with the pace.

Even though age may start to catch up with him, Thrave is better than those last two poor showings. This isn’t a strong field and if allowed to run on merit, is clearly overpriced.

10pts win – Thrave @ 13/1