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Betting Talk, Uncategorized

Friday Racing Tips

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2.30 Musselburgh: Maiden Stakes, 5f

This shapes like a two-horse-race with slightly more experienced Faithful Promise heading the betting at the moment, closely followed by Fahey’s colt Shobrom.

The filly was arguably unlucky the other day when an agonisingly close runner-up. However she goes against boys now for the first time and it won’t be any easier.

Shobrom ran well on debut in a decent Newmarket maiden that already works out okay and should have decent potential for improvement. Richard Fahey’s form with two year old maidens at Musselburgh is quite tremendous over the years, so Shobrom’s chance is enhanced in my book.

Given both, Faithful Promise and Shobrom, ran to pretty similar form the last time rating wise, you would hope that the colt has more upside given he achieved it first time out.

Selection:
10pts win – Shobrom @ 13/8 Paddy Power

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3.40 Lingfield: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

This looks like an ideal opportunity for Mark Johnston to follow on from his tremendous record as this track with fine sprinter Highly Sprung. The four year old ran with plenty of credit at Leicester when last seen and remains on his last winning mark too.

However he drops to 5f, a trip he only ran twice over in his career. With his early pace and a decent draw this could suit perfectly here at Lingfield, where Zebedee offspring has a sensational CD record.

Given Highly Sprung ran numerous times to higher RPR’s than his current handicap rating and having been rated 10lb higher only back in September 2016, there is a pretty good chance that he has a bit in hand with conditions very likely to suit.

Selection: 
10pts win – Highly Sprung @ 9/2 Bet365

United Kingdom

The War Front Debate

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Another winner today – though not the one I expected most: Make On Madam landed the odds in the lucky last at Beverly in great style. Compare that to Seven Heavens who finished a slightly underwhelming third in the European Free Handicap.

The Frankel son was taken to post early, looked warm in the preliminaries of the race and then pulled his way through the first couple of furlongs. Given all the hype before the off in all the usual racing outlets as well as on social media, it was a bit disappointing to see him finish with zero left in the tank.

Seven Heavens looks still raw, green and like a schoolboy in first grade who finally has to face the realities of school life. It’ll be interesting to see if John Gosden can get this lad to settle – if he does, then Seven Heavens can still be an exciting prospect for the future.

The winner of the race, though, Aiden O’Brien’s Whitecliffsofdover, already looks a fine prospect. The 2000 Guineas on the radar now? Surely, after this commanding experience. A first time tongue-tie saw him finish the race strongly. He was striding clear in the closing stages, thoroughly enjoying the demanding task the Rowley Mile is.

This son of War Front looks not only quite big and scopey  but has also clearly trained on. Which is nice to see because in the past we often heard something along the lines “War Front’s don’t train on”. Not an unreasonable shout. There is undeniably some truth to it.

Declaration of War, the one example brought up over and over again to demonstrate that War Front can produce excellent older horses indeed, is certainly a valid one, but there is also a fact that – solely looking at UK runners here – performance does drop off dramatically from two to three year old offspring – 26.9% strike rate (55.8% placed) for 2 year old’s versus 11.3% (24.6% placed) for 3 year old’s.

And for the one incredibly impressive winner we saw today, there were two fancied War Front daughters that bombed out in the Nell Gwyn Stakes.

This is a persisting trend year after year and therefore can’t be denied. However there is also the mare that has a role to play and we have seen with The Factor or the mentioned Declaration Of War can be top class beyond their juvenile season.

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4.40 Lingfeld: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

An open and rather competitive race for this grade, though the short favourite could improve yet again after a couple of big performances and therefore might have too much on his plate for this lot.

Nonetheless I’m more interested in potential improver Caledonian Gold. The four year old mare is still without a win, however is totally unexposed over the one mile trip and has dropped to a career lowest rating, despite running to solid form the last handful of starts over shorter trips.

She has tried this sort of trip only once last season when she failed miserably, which was more down to her pulling way too hard in the early stages of the race. She looked one paced over 7f in all her races though, still always running to the line at least, suggesting that now where she is potentially wiser and more mature that she really wants an extra furlong.

The very fact that the dam won a race over 10 furlongs on the Lingfield All-Weather gives enough confidence to suggest that this step up in distance can help. And if it does edge out a bit of improvement then Caledonian Gold could easily take advantage of her falling mark.

The yard seems to expect a performance as the jockey booking of Robert Winston looks significant. A “job jockey” I would call it, he has only two rides on the card, the next one after this race nearly two hours later, and he has a very healthy strike rate for this yard either, suggesting he’s not making the trip in the afternoon just for fun.

Selection:
10pts win – Caledonian Gold @ 15/2 Bet365

All-Weather Racing

Good Friday Racing

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Good Friday, long Easter weekend, no Alcohol….. something isn’t right in this list. I have to work while everyone doesn’t and I’m not allowed to down a well deserved drink in the pub afterwards…. What’s good about that???

Well, what’s certainly good about Good Friday is the excellent All-Weather Champions Day which has been going from strengths to strengths since its introduction a couple of years back.

If you enjoy the sand racing – as I do – and if you enjoy even more so decent horses running on it, well, then Friday is indeed Good Friday!

Some selections for the day as follows below – hopefully following on from two winning days in succession – what a rare feast that has been for quite some time. But thanks to Outcrop on Wednesday, who won at tasty odds of 8/1, things look slightly less bleak than they did a week ago or so.

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2.10: Lingfield: AW Marathon Championships, 2m

I have set my eyes firmly on First Mohican here, fourth in this race last year, when incredibly unlucky. He travelled like the winner for most parts but didn’t get a run whatsoever.

He had a busy campaign subsequently, ended it winless, however was placed in some big Handicaps, including an excellent runner-up effort in the Cesarewith!

After a small break during the winter he returned in a conditions race at Kempton, finished a fine third, then went on to win the Fast Track Qualifier over the 2m at Lingfield last month in good style, suggesting he is still as good as ever.

Now, he can start slowly and might be outpaced early on, as a result may well find himself far off the pace, similar to last year. No doubt he will need all things to fall right in order to win, but in an open race he’s a very big price.

Selection:
10pts win – First Mohican @ 20/1 Bet365

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3.10 Lingfield: AW Sprint Championships, 6f

Most of these have collateral form and it is quite hard to split them. Royal Birth looks a prime candidate if he could bring his form to this longer trip, though the form selections would be Kimberella and surely the most likely winner has to be Lancelot Du Lac.

Front running Mythmaker from pole position has the ability to steel the race wheres Boom The Groom at his best has a huge shout.

The “x-factor” in the race is Godolphin’s Pretend. He won this very race two years ago. Since then things did not go right. After yet another absence he returned to the track at Kempton in February and showed that still possesses above average ability when easily sprinting away in a slowly run race, travelling powerfully in rear throughout.

The next two times here at Lingfield things went horribly wrong. In the Cleves Stakes he got a bump soon after the start and was set alight as a consequence, despite racing keenly he found extra in the closing stages but was then short of room when it mattered most.

Dropped to 5f the next time he bottled the start and in a race where you had to be at least prominently positioned in order to have a chance he lost the race right there. Nonetheless sectionals tell its own story and he ran a huge race according to them, though he looked fairly awkward in the home straight.

Making excuses for a horse twice is a never a good sign but I’m inclined to do so for Pretend. He’s better than what he has shown the last two times, is a former winner of this race, a Group 3 winner on the All-Weather and his overall record suggests he is the most talented individual in this race.

The wide draw does not help today, or does it? I suspect it’s better for him so he can come with a big sweeping run on the outside turning for home and then his electric change of gear might see him pick off the leaders, instead of facing a wall of horses.

Selection:
10 pts win – Pretend @ 5/1 Skybet

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4.40 Lingfield: AW Middle Distance Championships, 1m 2f

Favourite Convey produced a massive performance on his reappearance lto and is fancied for good reasons. But is he that much better than the rest as the odds suggest? Unlikely in my book.

You can make a case for a handful of horses, yet the most interesting is Battalion. He loves this course and distance, won twice here this winter, including a listed contest.

He is clearly a quirky character as seen in the Winter Derby and those antics cost him every chance. as a standard he is slowly away and that will make life difficult in a race without a lot of pace today yet again.

But despite his antics he ran incredibly well judged on sections the last two times and that swerve in his direction: if he is on a going day then he clearly has the ability to pick them all up and win.

Selection:
10pts win – Battalion @ 6/1 Bet365

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2.55 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Against the odds I feel Ruth Carr’s five year old gelding Chaplin Bay looks an overly big price on his seasonal reappearance. He ran well as a fresh horse in the past so it would not be a surprise to see him return to form.

He seems to be an exposed sort on turf, however not so much on the sand, where in two career starts he finished runner-up in a Dundalk maiden and fourth in a hot Handicap last season.

Off his current mark he may could still find a bit of improvement on the All-Weather; in fact his breeding suggests there might well be more to come. Fastnet Rock offspring outruns the odds year after year, even more so over the 7f trip and very much so this season at Newcastle.

Selection:
10pts win – Chaplin Bay @ 16/1 PP

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3.30 Bath: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 3.5f

Richard Hannon’s Hushood is thrown into the deep end here on his handicap debut of a rather biggish looking opening mark, judged on what this lad this as a juvenile.

But he is expected to improve big time for the trip. He’s nicely bred and a full-brother to Group 3 placed Seaport. His family is stamina laden and has also form on fast ground, though Hushood himself showed his best  in a maiden on good to soft last year, beating a short odds-on favourite from the Gosden yard, who subsequently franked the form.

Interestingly Hushood is by sire Champs Elysees who has a tremendous record over this trip and on firm ground, which gets even better at this Bath track  – a small sample size it is, but the numbers look significant.

All in all Hushood makes appeal as there is a good chance he finds the improvement needed in these conditions to overcome a mark of 86.

Selection:
10 pts win – Hushood @ 13/2 Skybet

United Kingdom

Exciting Eagle Creek one for the Future

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Nice to see confidence justified – at last! I said it last night, the opening maiden of today’s Lingfield card unleash a potentially smart colt in the making. And so it was.

Favourite Eagle Creek (SP 9/4) didn’t make any mistake on his seasonal reappearance. He grabbed the lead soon after the start and never gave it away. He won with ease by six lengths, never touched.

Jockey Andrea Atzeni, who made the journey to Lingfield Park for this sole ride, was delighted afterwards:

“He enjoyed himself in front and picked up really well. He was always going to be a better horse as a three-year-old.”

The future looks bright for Eagle Creek now. How bright remains to be seen. But he looked physically improved, gave the impression of a strong and scopey colt. It clearly helps that he hails from a good family by Raven’s Pass out of listed placed Blue Angel and a half-brother to listed race- and multiple Meydan winner Viren’s Army.

What’s next? I’d say they step him up in class rapidly to find out how good he really is. He does not look like a handicapper but more like an individual with a future in some nice pattern races. Certainly one for the tracker, one way or the other.

Race Video – 2.00 Lingfield

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4.30 Catterick: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

It’s always difficult to make a decision if you fancy two horses in the same race, so do I here with Coquine, who seemingly finds her first real opportunity on turf after a fruitful winter. She could potentially remain well handicapped with blinkers fitted.

But tentatively I side with Lackaday who won this very race off 8lb higher last year. He was no chance given by the handicapper subsequently but has finally dropped down to a very handy mark again.

He changed yards in the meantime and ran extremely well on his reappearance over sharp 5f at Newcastle last month. He finished an excellent 3rd that day – a performance that suggests he finds back to his best form.

Selection:
10pts win – Lackaday @ 6/1 Betfair SB

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2.20 Nottingham: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

It’s only the second start for the filly Blitz since moving to the UK from Ireland where she showed plenty of promise as a juvenile. She finished a close second on her seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton in February which was also her UK debut.

That day she tried to make all and set a good pace from the front but just got a bit tired in the end it seemed while also still showing signs of greenness at the start and turning around the final bend.

This form looks rock solid and a return to turf on a straight track with fast ground could see her putting her best foot forward. In similar conditions she went only half a lengths down in a Curragh maiden behind a subsequent Group 3 scorer last year.

Selection:
10pts win – Blitz @ 9/2 Bet365

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5.20 Nottingham: Class 5 Handicap, 10f

Outcrop, the son of Rock Of Gibraltar makes plenty of appeal on his Handicap debut over a trip more suitable than what he raced over in three maidens as a juvenile.

His opening mark looks potentially lenient given he already ran to a similar RPR on his final start last season over a trip likely to short. He looks one who’s sure to improve with age and experience too.

Lightly raced sons of ROG tend to improve dramatically over the 1m 2f trip and if that isn’t enough then trainer Hughie Morrison has a fine record at this course over the last number of years.

Selection:
10pts win – Outcrop @ 7/1 Betfair SB

Betting Talk

Wednesday Selections

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

Three All-Weather meetings on a Wednesday – flat racing at its finest! Ah, well, not quite, I guess. But soon the proper racing on the green grass is back in all its richness. Until then we have to deal with what we got and that is low-class sand racing.

It’s still a surprisingly compelling day of racing with some interesting fields across the board at Southwell, Lingfield and Kempton. And while I try to stay away from these type of races as much as I can these days, I couldn’t help myself but find three horses to back:

2.30 Southwell

Comprise looks a fair favourite and is likely hard to beat if anywhere near full race fitness which looks assured with Spencer coming to Southwell for this single ride. But there is at least a small question mark on that front as well as whether the gelding has wintered well.

Hungarian Rhapsody will enjoy the step up in trip after running well the last too times when fancied in the betting. But newcomer Bowed Not Broken looks value at 11/2 in a race where only these three horses appear to be in with a realistic chance.

The daughter of classy sprinter Casper Netscher has the assistance of the excellent Martin Harley in the saddle, while the Burke yard goes strongly recently and did well in the past in these type of races here. It also looks significant that a hood is fitted for the first time.

Selection: 
10pts win – Bowed Not Broken @ 11/2 Sky

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3.50 Lingfield

Muthraab Aldaar has been treated leniently by the handicapper despite a massively eye-catching return after a seasonal break last month at Kempton. He broke very badly that day, was still last with two furlongs to go but made incredible headway marching through the whole field to finish what looked moments before an unlikely runner-up.

He should come on for the run and given he is down to a career lowest rating after having been put up way too high as a three year old after a maiden success he’s here a huge chance in my book.

The trip is a slight worry because he stays a good deal further and Lingfield is a speedy track, but with so many things on the plus side he looks a good thing at tasty odds.

Selection:
10 pts win – Muthraab Aldaar @ 5/1 PP

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6.55 Kempton

Those with race experience seem vulnerable so chance is taken with well bred newcomer Altyn Alqa. The filly favours well in the weights and has a fine draw to start off her career in a very winnable race.

The Cox yard didn’t have many runners lately but those send out ran extremely well. Furthermore Clieve Cox did well in these Kempton maidens and can get them ready for their debut Luke Morris in the saddle rides this track and trip quite well too.

Selection:
10pts win – Altyn Alqa @ 9/2 Bet365

Racing Talk

Tuesday Selections

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Jamie Spencer

A day of seconds and thirds… let’s not dwell on it. Much more fun is to watch he ATR “Ride of the Month”! As always the At The Races team  selected a number of spectacular rides seen at tracks they show racing from.

I honestly find it hard to get excited about jumpers at this time of the year, so to see those type of rides appearing on my screen…. It feels odd, regardless of how spectacular they are.

Nonetheless, I want to give Ruby Walsh an honourable mention for the heroics he had to perform to get Penhill over the line at Galway. Any other month it might be the ride of the month….

But it’s the flat season, so for me the three top rides were:

  1. Jamie Spencer – Deavuille
  2. Pat Smullen – Xsquared
  3. Josephine Gordon – Dltripleseven

Of course Pat Smullen on a slipping saddle was horsemanship at its best, but I got to give it to Jamie Spencer.

Usually at the receiving end of stick of an army of armchair jockeys (predominantly on social media), he gave Deauville a peach of a ride from an impossible draw in the Belmont Derby, and miraculously had the horse in a prime sport turning for home, while saving enough fuel for when it really mattered. Well done!

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Tuesday Selections:

6.00 Nottingham: Champion Harbour @ 7/1 Bet365
6.15 Lingfield: Great Expectations @ 13/2 Bet365
7.00 Nottingham: Atlan @ 11/4 Skybet
7.45 Lingfield: Kristjano @ 7/1 Bet365

United Kingdom

Saturday Tips: All-Weather UK

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2.20 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

I expect a brisk pace here which should suit the short priced favourite. Hold Tight should definitely go well and won’t mind the drop in trip, but bottom weight Luis Vaz De Torres looks excellent value after an impressive performance lto.

He pulled extremely hard throughout the race in a slowly run affair which doesn’t suit him well, nonetheless he quickened nicely and looked good for more. The handicapper has been lenient, so this is a big opportunity to achieve a career best.

Luis Vaz De Torres @ 8/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

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2.45 Chelmsford: Conditions Stakes, 7f

No doubt, Lamar sets a very high standard and on ratings looks hard to beat. The drop to 7f isn’t a problem for the prolific mare and she is sure to run her race.

But I feel lightly raced My Call will give her plenty to think about it and might get the better thanks to receiving 3lb and further improvement very likely. She won really nicely when last seen, which was only her third start and while this is tougher, she is expected to have learned plenty and take another big step forward, particularly with the step up in trip sure to suit.

My Call @ 7/4 VC – 10pts Win

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3.20 Chelmsford: Class 2 Handicap, 10f

Quite an open race, albeit very competitive. The underestimated runner could be William Haggas inmate Our Channel. Not quite a straightforward individual, but surely talented, he impressed at his comeback run last month at Lingfield.

I expect him to come on quite a bit for that runner-up effort. He steps up to 10f now, a trip he has won at in the past – back in 2012 the Derby Trial Epsom, in fact. Off a mark off 95 he travels quite nicely into this race too.

Our Channel @ 6/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Lingfield Preview – Churchill Stakes

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Wet Dundalk Polytrack

3.10 Lingfield: Churchill Stakes (Listed)

An ultra competitive race with plenty of pace – it should suit lightly raced favourite Let’s Go down to the grounds. He was only beaten by the best All-Weather horse in the country when last seen and should enjoy the new trip.

That says he is a very short price in a very hot race. There is better value to find. I like a couple but for pure price reasons find it impossible to ignore John Gosden’s Tempus Temporis. He’s made a name for himself as a really good horse on the synthetics last winter, winning two and being placed in a super-competitive All-Weather Championship Finale.

He wasn’t disgraced when last seen at Newmarket when third behind two smart horses either. Off since then it’s hard to know what to expect today from him as a fresh horse. However Gosden has his string is excellent order so one would assume Tempus Temporis will have a fair shot at this.

He tried the 10f trip for the second time. The jury is out whether he truly stays it. From a pedigree perspective he’s got every chance. With a top jockey in the saddle I feel this lad is massively overpriced.

Tempus Temporis @ 20/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Lingfield: Lamar Can Bounce Back

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booker

It’s annoying – another second yesterday! Salient ran a blinder at 20/1, but didn’t win. Three second places this week so far, all good prices, none went in. It’s a tough game from time to time.

3.20 Lingfield: Fleur De Lys Fillies’ Stakes (Listed), 1m 1f

Lightly raced Godolphin filly Very Special has to be respected, given she has the weight for age allowance and is open to any amount of improvement after an impressive success at Kempton when last seen. However this dates more than 200 days back, which is a concern. Whether she stays the additional furlong while stepping up in class is another question mark.

The other three year olds in this race make not too much appeal to my eyes. Pack Together and Alfajer ran second and third in a good Ascot Listed event earlier this month. But the step up to 9f is a major concern as their pedigree doesn’t scream stamina.

Form wise it is hard to oppose Rekdhat. Third in a Group 3 in Turkey recently, she looks primed for a big run here, if she is able to overcome the wide draw and slight stamina concerns. Those concerns are valid, though, and could find her out here.

Top rated Dusky Queen can’t be discounted, although she has to give weight away and has concerns about trip too.

Very little in this field stands out and that brings Lamar very much into contention. She has been poor on turf, couldn’t confirm her strong winter form. But she is back after a break which may have helped her as in the past it did seem to do her the world when she returned as a fresh horse.

She won two competitive Conditions Stakes at Wolverhampton and Lingfield back in January, confirmed this with a runner-up effort in the Winter Derby Trial and ran out another impressive second when dropped to 7f in the Fillies’ and Mares All-Weather Championship.

Trip and track will suit her perfectly today, she has a good draw and might be able to dominate here from the front. Other than that she is one of the best All-Weather fillies around and that gives her a prime chance today.

Lamar @ 4/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win 

United Kingdom

York: Melvin The Grate a likely improver

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3.05 York: Handicap, Class 2, 1m

As competitive and wide open as it gets, but I like the big price for Melvin The Grate. Surely still an improving individual, he has to show further improvement to feature, but may well do second time out after a break. He ran well at Sandown last month, travelling well throughout.

But this here today will suit better. He needs a fast pace, which is guaranteed, and he won’t mind any soft in the going description. His mark off 95 and light weight gives him a good chance to feature.

Melvin The Grate @ 25/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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8.00 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

Freshly gelded Steevo could be overpriced here. He’s seems a pretty tricky customer, who won a 7f Handicap on the All-Weather last year, a form which works out well. He came back this season with a decent 3rd at Bath over 1m but seemed awkward and one-paced. The next time over 9f at Lingfield he was pulling all the way throughout the race, running his race before it really started.

That could happen here over 10f again. But he may have learned from this last outing and settle better. He can get the trip as there is plenty of stamina on the dam side. The gelding op should help him to be more relaxed now and if that is the case he can go close here off a low enough mark with a goof 5lb claimer in the saddle.

Steevo @ 16/1 Betfred – 5pts Win