Tag Archives: Handicap

United Kingdom

Kempton: Menelik a prime chance with Coackley booked

Leave a comment

Dundalk All-Weather

7.10 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

My attention is drawn to three horses here in this low grade Handicap. Favourite Bridge Of Sighs won a poor class 7 race the last time, however on his first try over 1m. His lightly raced profile, modest rise in the mark and 3lb claimer on board gives him a decent chance to follow-up.

Two form horses but at the same time with eye-catching runs the last time are Thermal Column and Menelik. The former on is clearly very consistent since changing yards.

Three starts in the last weeks resulted in a placed effort, a hard fought win and an eye-catching runner-up effort most recently. Off an unchanged mark he is a serious contender, although a poor draw makes life difficult.

Menelik is down to a very handy mark at the moment and has been placed the last two of his current rating off 60. He caught the eye the last time at Wolverhampton when he overcame a wide draw and engaged in a fierce fight for the lead early on.

He made allot in those first two furlongs of the race but eventually settled in fourth, tracking a mad pace. He travelled strongly around the home turn approaching the straight leading the pack but was soon headed by the eventual winner and worn down by him as well as the runner-up in the final furlong.

He still came clear a long way of the rest and wasn’t beaten fast. Given that first and second came from way off the pace while he committed allot this rates as a very strong performance.

The slight drop back to 1m will help here, so will the kind draw. Most interestingly is the jockey booking. A good Irish 5lb claimer is over to ride this one race at Chelmsford. His allowance gives Menelik a prime chance in this field.

Menelik @ 8/1 Bet465 – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Kempton: Salient Can Outrun Big Odds

Leave a comment

Dundalk All-Weather

19.55 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

Really only one horse stands out here: Salient. He’s quite a big price which opens the question whether today is his day. However his record says he can cause an upset alright. He meets ideally conditions here in terms of field size, trip and is down to his last AW winning mark.

His Kempton record is slightly concerning, given Slient is usually an excellent All-Weather horse. But then those poor runs came all over much shorter trips. He was found out for class in a class 4 Handicap at Epsom when last seen but won back in September at Goodwood.

He gets the assistance of talented 7lb claimer Callum Shepperd who has ridden Salient in most of his races this season and won twice on him, including back in May at Lingfield’s All-Weather over 12f off the same mark Salient is on at the moment. Plum draw should suit to go forward.

All depends whether Salient is on a good day – if so he’s going to be a big danger to the short priced favourite Jack Bear, who has fair credentials but doesn’t look like a 2/1 shot at all!

Salient @ 16/1 VC – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Windsor: St Saviour Can Bounce Back

Leave a comment

Lexington Times

5.00 Windsor: Handicap (Class 4), 1m 2f

If the ground dries further it’ll be a big help to favourite Freight Train who is sure to try and make all. There is a bit of pace in the field though and with a bit of rain expected around Monday afternoon, soft patches are likely to remain in the ground, so it could expose the in-form Mark Johnston inmate.

Devonshire Place makes appeal dropping back to 10f. I’m worried though that his racing style will leave him with too much to do when it matters.

I feel St Saviour deserves another chance and could be quite a bit overpriced. After a below par effort at Sandown last month he has been dropped to a mark off 79 but in reality could be easily be a bit better than that.

He showed plenty of promise when 3rd here at Windor in a super hot maiden back in April, a form that works out extremely well. He got off the mark two starts later in a small field at Brighton but flopped subsequently as mentioned before. But it was a very competitive race in bottomless conditions off a higher mark – so lets draw a line through the performance.

Good to Soft ground at Windsor should suit well though as he acted well on it at Brighton, and with Oisin Murphy in the saddle, St Saviour may bounce back here.

St Saviour @ 12/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Saliisbury: Radhaadh deserves another chance

Leave a comment

Newmarket July Course

4.00 Salisbury: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 2f

Raw Impulse looks a strong favourite but at 9/4 is hardly a bet for me. Fellow three year old Radhaadh seems a big price compared, though. The filly got off the mark in a Chelmsford maiden over 10f two starts ago and did that in most impressive style.

Upped in trip to 1m 3f the next time in a hot handicap, she was racing for the lead, kicked on to win the race with the race leader over 3f out, however faded inside the final furlong. The slight drop in trip will surely suit better and the jury is still out whether she is up to her current mark.

She is related to smart Munaaser, though and well bred, which suggests there could be still more to come. She has the perfect draw today to accommodate her aggressive racing style – only concern I really have is the ground. She may well prefer a quicker surface. The sun over Salisbury will help though to dry out the last patches of soft… hopefully.

Radhaadh @ 16/1 Coral – 5pts Win

Ireland

Rule The World Can Rule The Kingdom

Leave a comment

Rule The World, runner-up Irish Grand National

3.45 Listowel: Handicap (Class 1), 9f

Heavy going all around at Listowel, we have to feel thankful for the fact that can race, actually. A pretty open looking handicap this is here, but I feel Water Sprite is quite overpriced. She couldn’t make her name count on the beach last week, but return to this track, where she won a CD handicap last season, should help.

She is also proven on soft ground and can stay further where needed. From a good raw she may go out aggressively  and make this stamina count on a tight track where it certainly is no disadvantage to be up with the pace. She has been pretty rubbish in her last three races, but for mentioned reasons should be competitive today, even more so with a decent 10lb claimer in the saddle.

Water Sprite @ 12/1 Coral – 5pts Win

————-

4.20 Listowel: Kerry National (Grade a Handicap). 3m

Rule The World is a bit an unlucky horse. He travelled so strongly in the Galway Plate the other day, just to slip two out. He would have gone mightily close, one would assume. He has never won over 3m, however he shouldn’t have a problem staying the trip, given he was second in last seasons Irish National.

What adds more weight to his chance: clearly the ground. He is so much better when it’s bottomless. While his mark went up 3lb for the strong Galway run, he has the fine 3lb claim from David Mullins.

Rule The World @ 7/1 William Hill

United Kingdom

Redcar: Almuheet can take advantage of low mark

Leave a comment

booker

3.50 Redcar: Class 4 Handicap, 1m

Down to class 4 and dropped to a mark off 80, Almuheet must have a big chance to go close if he can find back to his form. He has been knocking on the door a couple of times last season and also earlier in a hot Kempton Handicap, but high marks prevented him from being competitive in largely better races.

He gets a chance from the handicapper now and with conditions sure to suit at Redcar today I feel this is an excellent opportunity to bounce back. He is quite an attractive given the scenario.

Almuheet @ 12/1 Coral – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Sunday Selections – York

Leave a comment

Newmarket July Course

2.30 York: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Two three year old fillies stand out in this field: Distain is the first one. She didn’t quite stay the 1m 5f trip at Chester the last time, but now dropped back to 10f she could be a real force. I was impressed with her change of gear when getting off the mark at Redcar in a maiden on only her second start. 10f here at flat York in a big handicap with a hot pace, she could be ideally suited and better than her current rating off 80.

Bottom weight Pamushana is equally one who could have easily more to offer. She is on a potentially very lenient mark after following up on an ultra impressive maiden success with a strong 3rd place in a better class at Nottingham last month. She looks big and scopey, apparently progressing well this season and wit handy weight and draw a big chance in this race.

Pamushana @ 8/1 Betfred – 5pts Win
Distain @ 10/1 Coral – 5pts Win

———

5.10 York: Class 4 Apprentice Handicap, 1m 4f

His most recent Newmarket performance was too bad to be true, so one may forgive Endless Credit that poor run and better judge him on his excellent runner-up performances before. If he could run to that sort of form, he’ll be in with a big chance, given that he has the perfect draw for his positive running style.

A mark off 69 seems high enough, though; yet seen in the contest of the jockey booking, seems less of a problem. Young Fitzpatrick claims valuable 5lb and is very much worth every single pound. He’s riding out of his skin at the moment and is clearly a talented young jockey – that’s a bonus in this type of race.

Endless Credit @ 14/1 VC – 5pts Win

United Kingdom
Leave a comment

Iron Major Dundalk

5.15 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Hard to look beyond progressive Commodore here. He was quite unlucky not to finish closer the last time over course and distance when a fine runner-up after overcoming the widest draw and a tactical disadvantage.

He wasn’t at his best at Newmarket when he probably didn’t quite handle the track either but ran a huge race at Sandown in June when second again, a form which works out strongly.

He has the benefit of a much kinder draw here, which should help him to get into a decent position early on. There is not too much to fear here in this field and with his 3yo weight allowance giving him a huge chance.

Commodore @ 7/2 Betfred – 10pts Win

United Kingdom

Leicester: Mezzotint hard to beat

Leave a comment

Leicester Racecourse

7.55 Leicester: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

You have to be wary of the three year olds in this race, one of them might be able to step up his or her game, but it’s practically impossible to look beyond top weight Mezzotint.

He didn’t have things going right on a couple of occasions lately, but judged on his Newmarket performance last month when only 3l behind Athletic in a hot Handicap, despite having been badly hampered that day, proved he is still up to his mark.

He’s been dropped to a career lowest mark off 78 now while still capable of running up to something in the mid 80’s – he’s also dropped into a much easier race here today. With conditions very much to suit and a CD success to his name, he’s a handful for anyone in this race.

Mezzotint @ 4/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Fields Of Athenry can prove his class in Ebor

Leave a comment

Aiden O'brien

3.45 York: Ebor Handicap, 1m 6f

The competitiveness of this race is obvious, so is the almighty task which Fields Of Athenry faces. The 3 year old colt has to defy a handicap mark as high as none before has won from in a British Handicap from. In addition he has been allocated the widest possible draw. A big negative for a front-runner.

For all those reasons Fields Of Athenry has drifted from 6/1 out to 11/1 over the last couple of days. This price is too big in my book, though, and I become quite interested in this smart Leger contender. Why? It’s easy to see why. He is lightly raced, has potentially more improvement left in him, and despite a high mark, profits from the weight for age allowance as well as enjoys a handy 5lb claim from talented Donnacha O’Brien in the saddle.

One could have only have been impressed with his last two wins in Listed and Group 3 company. This lad has no problem to stay the distance and is one of the rare talent who can actually quicken from the front. He did this most impressively in the Listed Challenge Stakes at Leopardstown last month. More is required here today, it’s a much stronger field, but rated at 119, he is the class act.

He will have to be a genuine Leger contender if he wants to overcome his big mark today – I feel he has a good chance to do that. The wide draw is a problem, but he can be able to get across soon and track the pace. At 11/1 I’m rather with him than against him.

Fields Of Athenry @ 11/1 Stan James – 5pts Win