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Betting

Sunday Selections: 7th July 2024

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It was good to back a winner yesterday. In fact it was a nice & comfortable win for God Of Fire at Beverley. He was on the pace, in the right position throughout, and simply didn’t stop.

The same fortune didn’t apply to my Durban July selection Future Swing. He clearly wasn’t ready when the gates opened, not standing straight, leaning awkward to the side in the stall and it was a shame the starter let it go. He had no chance.

Whether he would have been good enough on the day with a fair start will be an unknown forever. Credit where it’s due, though: it was a sensational ride by J P v’d Merwe on the winner Oriental Charm, in any case.

Double figure draw? No bother. Once in front, he rode them to sleep, set a perfect tempo for his mount, who wasn’t certain to stay the July trip. But he has speed and travelles and just kicked on hitting the home straight with plenty in hand, and rivals from behind had too much to do as Oriental Charm was able to sustain his effort all the way.

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2.45 Hamburg: Group 1 – German Derby, 1m 4f

An open enough contest that may evolve around the way the pace develops with some of the better fancied runners having to overcome double-figure draws.

Likely front-runner Geminiano is a non-runner now, hence this may not turn out into all-out stamina test. It should prove vital to have a good early position, not too far off the pace, which means the likes of Narrativo and Wintertraum, currently the top two in the betting, have to be used up a little more than ideal, possibly, from their 10 and 11 gates early on.

Narrativo heads the market at the time of writing. A superb winner of Union-Rennen, a traditional leading Derby trial, he produced a lovely change of gear from off the pace.

He was a solid 3rd in the strong renewal of the Prix Hocquart behind Calandagan, so that’s proper form and a colt nicely improving with each run.

Wintertraum gets the assistance of Oisin Murphy and was an equally highly impress winner of a Derby Trial at Düsseldorf. He didn’t get a clear run until 300m out and sprinted away in superb style.

I don’t like the double-figure draws both leading betting chances have, and think they’re no more than fair prices, although, they are obvious chances to run well.

I’m quite interested in Wintertraum’s stable mate Augustus, though. He’s a tough sort, improving, and looks a stayer in the making who’ll appreciate the softish ground and the new trip.

He impressed when winning the Derby Trial at Baden-Baden last month as he was doing much the best of those up or chasing the hot pace. He came under pressure, seemingly outpaced over three furlongs from home, also looking still a bit green in the closing stages, but showed tremendous attitude to outstay smart Wilko.

Augustus should be ridden positive from the #1 gate and has the pedigree to improve for the step up to the Derby distance. He’s progressing nicely, as he followed on from a solid seasonal reappearance at Munich with the strong Trial win.

The second horse I’m giving a huge chance, who’s going to be my main bet, is already a Derby winner: Borna. He won the Derby Italiano in brilliant style back in May.

He overcame a wide draw and travelled wider than ideal for the majority of the race, nonetheless he made nice progress on the outside and travelled strongly on the bridle hitting the home straight. Two furlongs out he was all alone up there, and seemed to get a bit lonely, wandering and looking around. Ultimately he won with authority.

That looks strong form. The second, Royal Supremacy finished a fine 3rd at Royal Ascot in the King Edward subsequently. Borna looks a progressive sort, who should only get better with age and experience.

He was beaten by Wintertraum last season, though that was over a mile. He’ll have to prove that he can stretch out over the Derby trip, an additional furlong compared to Capannelle, but then the dam was placed over 1m 7f, so there’s a decent chance.

I like the fact from the #4 gate he’ll get it easy early on to find a decent position not too far off the pace, and given he’s a strong traveller he should be suited by the Hamburg track.

6 pts win – Borna @ 13/2
4pts win – Augustus @ 11/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 31st July 2022

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1.20 Munich: Group 1 Grosser Dallmayr-Preis, 1m 2f

Intriguing Group 1 action in Germany today as we see the return of Derby hero Sammarco.

As tight as the outcome of the Derby was, I always felt he was the best horse on the day. I am a huge fan of this son of Camelot and backed him to win at Hamburg.

The step up in trip was clearly in his favour, and I maintain that – if connections would go down the route – he could have a legitimate shot in an Arc this year.

Saying that, dropping in distance to 10 furlongs does the opposite to my excitement about Sammarco’s chances – at least today. This doesn’t look the deepest Group 1 and class may prevail, yet the drop in distance doesn’t do him any favours I reckon.

It makes perfect sense to get a Group 1 over 10 furlongs on board for a future stallion career. He probably find many better opportunities than this. Though, simply from a betting perspective I can’t back him today.

The French mare Ebaiyra is the favourite and quite a short price. She sets a very good standard thanks to her close 3rd place in the Dahlia Stakes back in May. She has tons of strong form in Group races to her name, although winning at the top level has eluded her so far.

Today looks an ideal opportunity to rectify this. The good to soft ground suits, the trip fine and she comes here in fine form after a recent Listed success at Chantilly that will put her spot on.

I still think she’s a little bit too short in the betting. Clearly a consistent mare, she’s no superstar and is potentially vulnerable to an improving sort.

The Andreas Schütz trained Dawn Intello is another well-seasoned performer at Group level. Consistent and solid are words to describe him. If the market principles falter he’ll be bang there, though he always looked a bit short of class to land a major one.

Last years fine Unio-Rennen winner Best Of Lips doesn’t appear to be quite the same horse this season. Rubaiyat may not quite stay 10 furlongs well enough against this strong level of opposition. Amazing Grace will only feature if they go a crazy pace.

Leaves Andreas’s Wöhler’s Queroyal, who fits the bill of a possible improver. The 3-year- old colt is still lightly raced and unexposed over ten furlongs. After a light juvenile campaign he won a 7.5f contest at Mülheim on seasonal reappearance before stepping up significantly in distance when landing the Derby-Trial at Baden-Baden in convincing fashion.

He kicked on as the field entered the home turn and never looked back, always holding, seemingly a shade cosily, the opposition. Connections were not surprised afterwards, saying they thought he’d be a smart prospect.

Although not the likeliest to stay the Derby trip, Queroyal was supplemented for the Hamburg Classic. He travelled strongly for a long time that day, but from a high draw he was forced to wide for the entirety of the race and travelled significantly farther than Sammarco, who had a perfect trip on the inside in contrast.

Queroyal flattened out in the final two furlongs, hanging badly in the home straight and eventually wandering around, clearly at the limit of his stamina. Nonetheless he was only 3 lengths beaten in the end.

The drop in trip is key today. Whether he is truly a Group 1 horse remains to be seen. The Derby-Trial form hasn’t worked out particularly well. But he looked a class above the opposition in any case and should be capable of improvement for his sixth career start and only second attempt over 10 furlongs. In my book he is significantly overpriced in this field.

A live stream for Munich can be found on Youtube.

10pts win – Queroyal @ 12/1

Global Racing

Graasten can shock in German Derby

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4.10 Hamburg: Deutsches Derby (Group 1), 1m4f

Without Karpino and Quasillo the German Derby has lost its main attractions. Which makes it now quite an intriguing affair. Shimrano is a fair favourite nonetheless. He has the form in the book. His win in the Oppenheimer-Union-Rennen is the best trial form on offer. From a betting perspective he makes zero appeal though. 2/1 in a big field with many unkown quantities….

I’ll be going with a massive price – Graasten. He was well beaten behind Shimrano at Collogne, however didn’t quite get the run of the race in home straight and was staying one late. He clearly would appreciate an additional furlong and won’t mind the Derby trip at all.

Fitted with blinkers for the first time today, it may help this very raw and green colt to keep his focus better than he has  in done all of his career starts. He’s often sluggish at the start, but has been best when ridden from the front. He enjoys a good draw today, so with the blinkers fitted, one would hope he is much sharper and is going to be well positioned.

This son of Sholokhov is a relentless galloper, big and scopey build, he could be hard to pass over the Derby trip once he is in front. Of course only if he has the class as well. He has to improve dramatically on what he has shown so far. But he has a chance to do so in my mind – a better one than his massive price tag.

Graasten @ 66/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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4.10 Ayr: Handicap (Class 3), 1m

Wide open race, not many appear well handicapped, although Pintura might well be, judged on his former best. He is down to a lowly mark off 89 now – that might well reflect his true potential now – but he seemed to regain something of his best when a fair third over course and distance here at Ayr back in May. He was a good runner-up that day coming of a long break.

I happily ignore his latest run at Haydock in unsuitable quick conditions. This today should suit rather well though. There is a bit of juice in the ground as he likes it and could be underestimated.

Main danger is obviously the lightly raced favourite Obsidian who could easily have still more to offer and should really close. However he’s a short enough price, while Pintura offers a bit of value.

Pintura @ 16/1 Stan James – 5pts Win