Competitive affair. Comedian Leader looks possibly overpriced back over this course and distance but the way the pace shapes and the new headgear combination is a worry for me.
Favourite Capuchinero won last time out with a bit in hand. A 5lb penalty makes life much harder, though. She never won off such a high mark and has to improve on speed ratings a handful of pounds too.
Haworth Star is the one most intriguing. Drawn wide, perhaps away from where the race develops in a slowly run race isn’t ideal one would think.
But making a move on that far side from a wide draw seems not too detrimental at Newcastle at all, so possibly negates conventional wisdom.
In any case, the lightly-raced gelding shaped like he’s significantly ahead of his mark when third at Wolverhampton last time out. The handicapper took notice and gave him a 2lb rise for the effort. Probably not enough.
That day he wasn’t quite the sharpest early on from gate 7, pulled quite hard in a tight and compact field as he tried to settle riding against the inside rail off the pace.
Yet, approaching the home straight he was still on the bridle, although he equally had a lot to do from the back of the field. He made strong progress, finding gaps as they appeared, without ever getting a smooth and clear run.
He appeared awkward and possibly intimidated in a tight finish deep inside the final furlong. Though, it was quite tight and the race was over at that stage no matter what, I reckon. Haworth Star also managed to run to a 61 speed rating, despite in less than ideal circumstances here.
Big odds suggested there weren’t high hopes riding on his back that day or eleven days earlier on handicap debut. The improvement from that Leicester run off a small break as well, was noteworthy in its own right.
Today is an easier race. This is only his third run in handicap company. This straight track may suit better than the ever turning Wolverhampton. He finished the strongest last time out, despite meeting trouble. So the stiff 7f could be exactly the test he wants, as long as they don’t crawl, which is a risk, truth told.
Newyorkstateofmind drops down to the minimum trip today, at Newcastle, off a fair mark – this looks like an ideal test with a solid pace expected, to help him settle and finish strongly.
The 6-year-old gelding is fully exposed, however, has ran only once over this course and distance, earlier this year, and finished a strong third off 3lb higher in a race that wasn’t run at a rapid clip.
His last two runs over 6 furlongs were highly encouraging, though, and he seems to hit strong form. Todays race is competitive but on speed ratings he’s the one I have come out on top, if he runs to form.
Especially after two eye-catching efforts in the last two weeks over 6 furlongs.
At Lingfield, when last seen, he couldn’t quite get to the pace early on and settled near midfield, though he also showed signs of keenness. A good pace and shorter trip should suit today, hence.
He then made strong progress from 3f out and made a gigantic effort toward the dreaded inside rail at Lingfield to even contest the lead over 1f out, before inevitably getting tired.
He was well-fancied that day, perhaps also related to the huge effort prior to it, at Wolverhampton. With that in mind, there is a danger that he can’t run to the same level a third time in this short pace of time.
But I feel the pace, the trip and the stiff finish will suit him really well, being also drawn in and around the pace, he can then track, and granted a clear run, should be able to finish strongly.
Guiteau won well last night. Brilliantly executed ride by Oisin Murphy, who must have read my preview beforehand, as it turned exactly that way – he made most of his draw and the lack of early pace, moved forward, and had enough in the tank to fend off the odds-on favourite.
Sometimes it works out that way. More often than not it doesn’t. A solid confidence booster, nonetheless. Two winners within a week now – what an unknown feeling that is… or was.
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8.15 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
The likely hot pace in this race should ensure this is going to be a fair contest over the minimum trip over a CD that often can turn into a “grab the lead and it’s game over”.
There’s probably too much pressure on any of the early leaders today, and that may set it up for someone who’s tracking the pace without getting involved in the early tussle for the lead.
No question the race is competitive, but that helps provide a healthy market with value on offer. One I’m waiting for a handful of months to back is Murbih, who’s certainly too big in the betting, if in it to win it.
Being mindful of the fact the gelding has an entry on Monday at Newcastle, a CD he achieved a career-best back in March.
However, I feel Murbih is well-suited to Wolverhampton, as his record reads 5-1-3, and in some of those races he was quite unfortunate not to finish closer than he did. He usually runs well here.
In addition, the 5-year-old has been in excellent recent form. His latest run earlier this month over this CD was a huge performance. A strongly-run race, he was positioned in midfield, travelled strongly into the home straight. He got past one of the early pace setters approaching the line, however he was also beaten by two horses from off the pace, who were ridden with more restraint.
His two runs prior at Wolverhampton warranted an upgrade due to different circumstances also. In any case, he’s in excellent form, although, on the surface, perhaps also in the grip of the handicapper.
Murbih is down to a 67 handicap mark now, though. A modest reduction from last time-out. He’s not been this low for a while, though, and ran seriously well off higher, including achieving strong speed ratings this year.
And with that in mind I do believe he’s handicapped to win, also keeping in mind the way this race could shape: the #1 will give Murbih the opportunity to let the pace setters from wider draws storm ahead, and he can slot in just behind on the inside saving ground today.
In an ideal world he gets the gap as they turn home and then picks them off to win by half a lengths.
Obviously, he’s a frustrating sort who often runs well and doesn’t win all that often. But this looks a great opportunity, for a horse in form, with a good draw, a lovely mark at his preferred course and distance.
If Redcar makes it as far the third race on their card today, then I’d be really keen on High Opinion to outrun his price tag.
The gelding was fancied all season but hasn’t quite delivered the goods. He caught the eye on a number of occasions, though, striking me as somewhat unfortunate to remain on a single career-win.
Clearly, judged on speed ratings he must be given a more than fair chance to change the current state today: now down to a 57 handicap mark, with the assistance of solid 3lb claiming Andrew Breslin in the saddle.
He ran 54+ speed ratings four times this year, and arguably his best performance at Ripon (56) came in a hot race where he was desperately unlucky not get a good deal closer – if only for a clear run.
The subsequent performances were a good deal better than they may appear on paper. High Opinion confirmed his wellbeing and was possibly just looking for a bit of help from the handicapper, a slightly easier race and a flat straight five with cut in the ground.
The 4-year-old is 1/14 throughout his career, hence one who often finds trouble. Today could be an ideal opportunity, though. His career-best runs came over 5 furlongs and deep ground.
He’s right drawn beside the likely pace, so in an ideal world, unless he badly misses the start, should get a nice lead into the final part of the race.
A possible negative is if they don’t go a solid gallop. High Opinion has tendencies to pull and a possible pace scenario leaves space for a somewhat slowly run race.
I highly rate the dangers of Northcliff, who despite his 0/19 record could have a class edge here, as well as Rajmeister who enjoys these conditions and won off the same mark earlier this year.
If High Opinion would be the one of the shorter prices he was in most his runs this season I’d probably give it a miss today. He’s not a winner, finds trouble, and may end up pulling his chances away. However, he’s simply a superb price, that compensates more than enough for those negatives, because he’s clearly handicapped to win, if all goes well.
Ideal Guest was a winner on Wednesday – thankfully, finally, one that did what was expected. There’ve been some lean weeks recently. As the gelding romped home at 5/1 SP, half the price I got in the morning, it brought solace to my beaten up betting soul.
🥇 Fantastic to have Mikkel ride a winner for us! His first for us and many more to come we’ve no doubt! Thanks for letting him be a part of our team 1 morning a week @FellowesRacing! pic.twitter.com/l5JZufTE6A
— George Margarson Racing (@MargarsonRacing) August 16, 2023
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4.00 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
This looks a seriously competitive race for this class and track and this time of the year. Even more so as I’ve got four eyecatchers lining up also.
Nonetheless, the one who does stand out as potentially enjoying this easier grade is 3-year-old gelding Paddy’s Day.
He ran in better grade the last few times, and did so without disgracing himself. In fact, he caught the eye, a number of times for various reasons.
His last two runs especially suggested he’s in pretty good form, albeit finding the opposition a bit too good, still.
Last time at Haydock I also felt Paddy’s Day wasn’t ideally drawn on the far side because race and pace developed away from him to the most part.
He was going okay for a long time, though, and in fact ran the fasted mid-section, yet when it mattered most he struggled to get a clean run through due to horses shifting right in front of him in the closing stages multiple times.
It’s debatable how much of a difference that made as he may have been done by that time anyway, but at the very least he was a theoretical chance to finish closer denied.
Paddy’s Day drops down to 75 and could be dangerous in this easier race, given he showed some promise in the past, including a class 5 Lingfield win off his current mark back in March.
On the negative side, he’s yet to run a speed rating that suggests he’s better than class 5 and the #1 can bring its own dangers.
Brilliant run by Beccara Rose last night at Sandown. With a furlong to go I thought she had it. Sadly she got tired, and two horses from off the pace came to catch her.
Shame, still searching for a winner after my return. Dartman faded away rapidly from two furlongs out.
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4.00 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
Better ground and a drop in trip should do the trick for lightly raced Captain Cuddles.
This race looks probably a little bit easier, although the same grade, as when he caught the eye a few weeks ago at Ascot.
That day he tracked the hot pace before he made good progress from three furlongs out to move into the lead eventually as the front-runner faded away.
He wasn’t able to sustain the effort but good third and only one in the mix late from those tracking the pace. Winner and runner-up came from well off the pace, instead.
He remains a lightly raced 3-year-old with scope for improvement off 80. I feel the drop in trip can only be a positive, as he may not quite got home over 7 furlongs at Ascot, especially with cut in the ground.
Captain Cuddles is a 6f winner on fast ground as a juvenile, and has only been seen three times since, including this latest return to form. The 5lb claim of solid apprentice Alec Voikhansky can only be a bonus today.
Waipiro delivered the goods. He won with so much in hand – I was hopeful he’d be too good for this field with a clear run, but this performance was a surprise, especially given the way the race panned out.
He definitely did it the hard way. It didn’t look like it would happen for a long time. A bad bump by a rival soon after the start, lit up, far off the pace, didn’t seem to travel well, the gap wasn’t opening…. until it magically did and whoosh off he was, never to be seen again by his rivals.
Let’s not forget what a huge eyecatcher he was in the Derby, and also how well he ran twice earlier this season. A drop to 10 furlongs, with a good pace… he was always to go close if he could get a run.
Not unhappy with Physique. He was right there for a long time. He faded in the final furlong, but that’s okay. It was a run for the money and a big price.
Good week overall; yet, longing for a “normal” winner in some random class 5 or 6 Handicap as well. Tomorrow?
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4.20 Ascot: Coronation Stakes, 1m
It’s hard, if not even impossible to oppose Tahiyra after her sensation performance in the Irish 1000 Guineas where she quickened away like a true superstar.
That performance wasn’t quite as strong on speed figures as it was visually, but the Dermot Weld trained filly produced a career-best and excellent 104 speed rating at Newmarket in the British equivalent last month.
She’s clearly extremely talented, at the same time possibly vulnerable given this is her third Group 1 in the space of six weeks on the quickest ground she has ever encountered.
Dermot Weld was on the record saying prior to the 1000 Guineas that he felt the filly could have done with an additional two weeks of preparation. Has she been rushed to run twice in this short space of time?
There are dangers here, also from a tactical point of view. On the round course it can be an advantage to make all or be certainly close to the pace. You would think Mediate could be in a prime spot when turning for home. Runner-up at the Curragh, this race could be run to suit her perfectly.
That says, bar Meditate, there is little opposition likely good enough to match a Tahiyra, even if not quite at her peak. Unless one of the other fillies in the race can step up significantly.
The one I would have hopes to improve significantly with experience is Remarquee. She was a huge disappointment at Newmarket, where she didn’t seem happy at any stage and found zero once under pressure.
But I can’t shake off the huge impressions she gave in her first two career runs, once on debut last year at Salisbury when she finished like a train, and no less so at Newbury in the Fred Darling two weeks ago.
She looked raw and green on both occasions. The speed figures weren’t strong, but her finishing speed screams talent. The better ground is intriguing. Even though her two wins came on soft, I have the feeling decent ground can bring out more improvement.
Prior to the Guineas Ralph Beckett was quite hopeful that he would have a potential star filly on his hands. There is still the potential for her to turn out and become a proper Group 1 filly.
Whether the race is going to be run to suit remains to be seen. Nonetheless, at the given prices she’s worth a shot at this.
10pts win – Remarquee @ 33/1
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5.00 Ascot: Class 2 Handicap, 1m
Coppice is an intriguing filly, and one from my horses to follow list this season. There’s every chance she’s well handicapped off 97 after her successful return to form in a Novice Stakes where she made amends for a disappointing defeat in the Nell Gwyn.
She hasn’t achieved any speed rating of note yet, and I’m not yet convinced that she truly gets a mile when the pace is on.
This test in a large field and with a stiff finish doesn’t strike me as the right one, especially as she can be slowly away as well. She’s certainly too short to back.
The pace side should be the stands’ side, with high numbers likely to dominate. That brings a filly into play that caught the eye earlier this month at Kempton.
Marksman Queen finished seriously well in a Handicap there over a mile, nearly overcoming a sluggish start as she travelled well off the pace was held together until about 2f out before showing a strong response when asked for an effort to come home much the best.
She couldn’t quite get back to the 4-year-old winner, who ran well for a long time in the Kensington Palace earlier this week.
She wasn’t slowly away in any of her two starts prior, hence I hope it was just ‘one of those days’. A poor start would severely compromise her chances in this competitive field.
But if she gets way well, then she could be very well handicapped, off 86, only 2lb higher than at Kempton. She won well at Southwell on her seasonal reappearance as well.
I reckon that perhaps the hood took off some of her early excitement at Kempton. She was keen in her previous races. Hopefully she is better used to it now.
Given her breeding Marksman Queen may have options to move up in trip, but a strongly run mile looks ideal for now. She should also improve for switching to turf on fast ground.
10pts win – Marksman Queen @ 15/1
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5.35 Ascot: Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes, 1m 4f
King Of Steel ran a massive race in the Derby on his seasonal reappearance and a return to that level of form will see him certainly with a prime chance. Can he repeat such a tremendous run?
Different track, different pace scenario, stiff finish. And he got the splits when needed, having enjoyed the near perfect race. He was clearly beaten by a brilliant horse on the day, and the same opposition isn’t present here.
But taking into account that this is going to be a totally different type of race, one can question his odds-on price tag. Also, I am not sold that he would stay a properly run 12 furlongs, especially with a stiff finish.
Also: on speed ratings he ran to a fine treble digit figure of 100. But the Aiden O’Brien trained Continuous achieve a 99 speed figure at York in the Dante over a trip possibly slightly short of his optimum when he also needed the run, most likely.
Continuous is one my horses to follow this year and I can forgive him that poor French Derby run. He didn’t have any real excuses, other than that it was a competitive renewal. So wellbeing is taken with some question marks attached.
Ryan Moore remains quite positive whenever he speaks about Continuous, so that’s certainly noteworthy. There should be more to come, given he didn’t have an ideal spring preparation, and strikes me as a relentless galloper who should enjoy Ascot.
The other one I do like is Artistic Star. I liked him for the Derby, and even though things didn’t work out on the day or him, the inexperienced colt showed great promise in the second half of his race.
After a solid start he didn’t travel well, niggled at various stages. Perhaps inexperience in such a big, tight field was to blame.
Three furlongs from home he was relegated to last even, before the penny seemed to drop and he motored home in the 4rd fastest final 3f split to pass many tired horses.
He’ll have learned plenty and remains at this stage an exciting prospect after two excellent career performances prior where he ran strong speed ratings for an inexperienced horse.
I’ll split my stake here: I really only can see three horses to win. Those are the aforementioned. Because Arrest over 12 furlongs, fast ground, stiff finish, looks not the test to suit him.
Fiftyshadesofred was rather unfortunate the other day at Catterick when he missed the start somewhat, as he can do, got behind and stuck on the inside rail and found himself badly short of room at a crucial stage over 3 furlongs out.
He ran pretty well in the circumstances and confirmed the excellent performance shown weeks earlier at Ayr.
That day he overcame a sluggish start and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. He found plenty under pressure and was only beaten late by two rivals from off the pace.
Before that he didn’t stay a mile but two runs back ran seriously well at Chelmsford over 7 furlongs. That looks his trip, and the fact he ran to 65 and 64 speed ratings now the last two times over this trip, on two different surfaces, gives his form credibility.
Another pound down, he looks seriously well-handicapped off 64, as he ran to a 65 speed rating at Ayr, in line with another 64 at Chelmsford in April.
This straight track may suit him better than sharp turning tracks. The field is competitive but with the 5lb claim of Connor Planas he should have too much in hand.
10pts win – Fiftyshadesofred @ 4/1
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5.16 Redcar: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
A race for maidens. Some of the higher rated horses make appeal as this is easier for them. But I’m intrigued by Lola’s Moment, who knocked on the door a few times before and ran a huge race last time at Wetherby.
She was slightly sluggish away but quickly found her stride and moved forward to track a hard pace. Eventually she took up the lead from the 2 furlongs marker until she got heavily challenged from over one furlong out.
She briefly accepted the challenge before she ran out of gas and faded away.
This was her comeback run after a break since September 2022. The filly looks potentially exposed but may be capable of progressing as a 3yo. Sprint trips look her game.
She’s a full-sister to recent 5.5f winner Alfred Cove (OR57). As she now drops to a similar rating she may be underestimated over a fast five with a good draw that she has got here.
10pts win – Lola’s Moment @ 10/1
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7.50 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
I firmly believe this is Latin Five’s for the taking. He is in excellent form, as evidence by his last two runs. Especially last time out at Nottingham he ran to a level of form that should see him hard to beat here if he can repeat.
He travelled seriously well on the far side, covered up behind the pace. Pulled out over 2f out and kicked on well to lead, before late beaten by a horse on the stands’ side.
The acceleration mid-race was quite something, for this level. He also achieved a 53 speed rating. He ran to 51 and 54 this season as well, so that 1lb hike doesn’t make too much of a difference.
He’s certainly well handicapped on last-years form. Now clearly back in form he’s the one to beat with a good draw to attack from as well.
19 and counting… worst losing run in a while. Griggy a big drifter on the day, never spotted in the race. Making a habit of it right now. On to tomorrow…
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6.05 Goodwood: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f
Barrier is one of the Handicappers to follow and I feel this looks an ideal Handicap debut for the filly. Judge her on a poor seasonal reappearance at your peril, dare I say…. this is a completely different proposition than what she encountered at Newmarket.
She dropped out rapidly and seriously badly from 4f out, but you could also argue until then she ran quite well, given she missed the break badly. actually.
That was tough opener, against strong opposition to the most part. It served the purpose to qualify for Handicaps, though. She can start off a 67 mark, which could be significantly underestimating her.
The drop to 10 furlongs doesn’t worry me too much, although she may turn out to be better over further. The opening mark is simply so low, I find it hard to believe, especially as she showed promise as a juvenile, on her final start in 2022 at Ascot, where I felt her run warrants an upgrade.
New headgear may help her to get her race off a bit sharper. She missed the break in all her starts, so that’s a concern. The fast ground is somewhat of an unknown, too, given it’s hard to take anything away from that lto run.
Nonetheless, I can’t leave her unbacked at this price, even though I would hope there is some support in the market later. It could also mean I’ve got it spectacularly wrong in my assessment of this filly.
10pts win – Barrier @ 20/1
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4.25 Sandown: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
Absolutely no doubt Bell Song is well-handicapped off 72 in her second run in Handicap company. She showed plenty in each of her three starts this year, including on Handicap debut last week, but has been given a real opportunity by the handicapper, who couldn’t have been any fairer.
Last week at Chelmsford she had the widest draw to overcome., which was a major disadvantage. She was caught wide and didn’t find cover for the first half of the race.
As a consequence she moved forward, used up loads of energy, to find a suitable position, eventually. It was impressive how she was able to kick on approaching the home straight and also the way she stayed well to the line despite all the trouble.
She was only beaten by one ridden with more restraint from a low draw. How good the form is remains to be seen, but the filly couldn’t have done much more to catch the eye. She has been left, surprisingly, on a 72 mark.
Which in itself looks on the low side, given her excellent seasonal reappearance at Southwell that looks quite strong form, where she didn’t get a clear run, otherwise she would have finished closer.
She may need to move up to a mile to be seen to best effect, but 7 furlongs seem fine for now. The pace looks somewhat muddling in this race. That’s a good and a bad thing.
One hand it means she should have no issue overcoming the #8 draw and follow the lead of likely front-runner Taritino drawn right beside her. She should be in an ideal position if all goes well. But she can be a bit keen as well, and may prefer a decent pace to aim at. There’s a risk.
Saying that, the risks are possibly outweighed simply by the fact that the filly could have way too much in hand in this field, I believe, on what is her turf debut, with fast ground probably to suit, given the pedigree. I don’t get this price, at all.
10pts win – Bell Song @ 11/1
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3.35 York: Listed Ganton Stakes, 1m
This race and pace scenario screams for an upset. Shining Blue is expected to go off as favourite. That’s fair. He won really well in Handicap company when last seen over 7 furlongs and does stay a mile.
On the other hand, the shorter trip is probably his optimum. His best speed rating came in January at Meydan over 7f. Purely judged on that he’s the one to beat.
A mile, fast ground, muddling pace, is a somewhat different scenario, and outside Meydan his form isn’t all that impressive. Therefore, he could be more vulnerable than the short price suggests.
El Drama is the pick on career-best speed ratings. But he may like it a bit longer than a mile and he hasn’t ran any faster than speed ratings in the 70s in over two years. That’s normally not good enough for this level. But then, this isn’t an overly strong race, either.
Chichester should find this easier than the last time and ran well on the All-Weather before. Though, he might be outpaced if this turns into a sprint for home and he could be poorly positioned in rear.
Longshot Silver Screen can’t be fancied, however Azano has all the right attributes to outrun his price here.
He’s only rated 92, and has a lot to find on Official Ratings and normally wouldn’t be too likely to land a blow outside Handicap company. Yet, this race may fall into his lap.
On the plus side, he showed fine form in his last two runs this year. Last time at Sandown he did too much to get to the front from his wide draw when he made the donkey work for those from off the pace, basically.
His Newmarket run in May, though, was strong, and a repeat of that form could be good enough to win this Listed contest.
That day he made the most of the standing start when he quickly moved forward to lead, as he set a strong pace and had the field on the stretch from 3 furlongs out. He ran home well and even rallied in the final furlong, but was eventually beaten by a strong winner.
I do rate that performance, as it represented somewhat of a return to close of his best form. Hos best gives him a definite chance her. Especially over a mile on fast ground where he may find himself able to dominate.
Although the earlier prices of around 40s seem rapidly disappearing since having started writing this post, I think what’s on offer is still a huge price given the likely circumstances of this race, and I’d be pretty certain Azano will outrun these odds.
Belsito makes a lot of appeal as he moves up in trip again. Over the minimum trip he seemed to be taken off his feet at crucial stages of races, but he always showed great attitude in the final stages of his last two runs especially, while also showing solid early speed at the same time.
That says, on his seasonal reappearance at Musselburgh he fell out of the gate, before he overcame that awkward start quickly, moved forward rapidly to lead after the first furlong even. He did way too much to get there and ran really well in those circumstances overall.
He followed up next time at Redcar when he set a strong pace and fought gamely to finish third eventually.
He’s a full-brother to a Group 3 winning miler, so going up to 6 furlongs should be a positive.
He tried it twice early in his career, without success, but he had valid excuses on those days, I think.
10pts win – Belsito @ 9/2
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4.40 Thirsk: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Stalingrad is cherry ripe I feel, yet on fast ground I’m not sure I want to trust this 22 race maiden here as the favourite in the betting.
Trust is needed to back Dream Together as well after a recent breathing issue and wind op.
He certainly looked amiss after a weak finish when last seen at Haydock, after he actually travelled quite well on stands’ side there for a long time, which was potentially not ideal being high drawn in this race, as he was racing away from where the pace developed.
He travelled strongly to 2f out before his effort petered out and we now know why that is. If the recent operation has rectified any issues he’ll be a huge chance.
He could easily get a perfect position closer to the stands’ rail and dominate the race from there in a field where not to many want to move forward.
He’s another 2lb down and well-handicapped now based on the fact that he ran pretty well most of the time in recent weeks. Also he achieved speed ratings last season that if he can run somewhere close to those here today – now that he’s hopefully healthy again – makes him a stand out horse from a handicapping perspective.
10pts win – Dream Together @ 5/1
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7.00 Goodwood: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
Yellow Lion was a serious eyecatcher at Newmarket when last seen and looks the one to beat if he can run to the same level of form.
He drops in class, but perhaps even more importantly he drops in trip. He didn’t seem to stay a mile at Newmarket. However, he travelled sweetly for a very long time, in a manner of a talented horse. He did so without cover on the outside of the field as well.
The colt showed good early pace and fine cruising speed before he dropped out quickly from 1.5f out and doing so without having an ideal race and against solid opposition.
That was his handicap debut, he’s lost 2lb off his opening mark in the meantime, so has been given a real opportunity by the handicapper.
The way he travelled gives the impression that he may enjoy proper fast ground. I could envision that he may even would enjoy the drop to 6f, but 7f is certainly worth a go here.
10pts win – Yellow Lion @ 4/1
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7.20 Haydock: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
Cuban Breeze ran a lovely race earlier this week at Wolverhampton when 2nd behind one who was potentially well-handicapped on old form, and who got the run of the race from the front.
This here is easier. A fillies’ 0-80; Cuban Breeze is clearly in excellent form as evidence of her last two runs. Wolverhampton was a strong performance, so was her Windsor run prior.
She made too much there from the front in deep ground conditions but confirmed some of the positive signs she showed in most of her more recent runs.
She’s now 4lb lower than her last winning mark, which cam off 85 over 6f on fast ground last August.
The fact that visually she made good impressions in recent weeks but also that she ran to a 79 speed rating at Kempton at the end of April points to the suggestion that she’s in strong form, ready to win.
10pts win – Cuban Breeze @ 4/1
……..
7.55 Haydock: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Batchelor Boy could be seriously overpriced in this field where many have questions not answer, not least on the handicapping front.
The gelding showed signs of form the last two runs, since coming back from a break. He bumped into a well-handicapped one on his seasonal reappearance and ran a tremendous race from the front the last time at Brighton over 7 furlongs.
He flew down the first half of the race, was over a full second faster to the 3f marker than the eventual winner. He gradually tired but was game to the line.
The drop to 6f is sure to suit, so does the fast ground. Haydock as a more conventional track is intriguing, as most of his racing has been done at Brighton.
It’s a concern that he hasn’t run a significant speed rating in over two years, but I give him the benefit of the doubt given that most recent strong performance have suggested he’s in the same form as when winning races in the last two years.
First time visor looks intriguing, too. He won in first-time blinkers in the past.
Good start to June: Flying Secret got there just in time as he caught he long-time leader.
It was a confident, patient ride by Charlie Bishop, who didn’t panic when the leader established a healthy advantage. The on-screen sectionals said it was a red hot pace, so the front-runner was always going to tire badly, eventually.
The 8/1 SP was no good to me, as always. I felt 11/2 was big value if he is allowed to run on merit, and so it proved to be. Happy enough.
It could have been a super day. Victors Dream was only beaten in a photo. He didn’t have any excuses, though, and every chance to win. It’s always unfortunate to lose in a photo, but these things tend to even itself out over time.
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2.50 Carlisle: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Two I like here: Stormy Pearl is sure to do better in this easier race on fast ground. So should Capofan, who is too well-handicapped to leave unbacked as he drops in trip.
Hence she’s the one I go for, as Stormy Pearl may have another day in her when she’s better to catch.
Capofan was a serious eyecatcher three weeks ago Musselburgh where she took quite a grip for the majority of the race. She clearly did way too much, especially around the home bend.
Nonetheless she made a huge move from 4f out to get to the leaders challenge them in the home straight, before she fell away in the closing stages.
She’s still a maiden and not one to trust too much, as she didn’t achieve a good speed rating yet. However, she seems to cry out for a drop in trip and decent ground should suit as well.
I feel she’s dangerous off a career-lowest mark an may found the ideal opportunity to get off the mark.
10pts win – Capofan @ 10/1
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3.25 Carlisle: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
I backed Azaim the last time which was an incredibly disappointing run when he was beaten before the race got hot. I’m prepared to forgive the performance because Catterick is a specialist track and the application of the hood seemed to backfire as well.
He gets another chance over 6 furlongs, though, which I think is ideal, especially based on his eyecatching run at Musselburgh last month where heshowed plenty of speed in the middle of the race but fell away rapidly from over 2f out.
He can be sluggish at the start, which he was last time but also at Musselburgh. With the difference at Musselburgh he was able to overcome it and then set a red hot pace, before he tired badly. At Catterick he never stood a chance, in contrast.
Musselburgh was also a hot race with first and second probably quite well-handicapped. Hence the performance warranted an upgrade.
He doesn’t stay 7 furlongs, and neither did he have a chance to get home in the majority of his recent races. Still lightly enough raced, he’s an intriguing runner over 6f, though, especially with new headgear to provide a spark, potentially.
10pts win Azaim @ 11/1
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3.35 Chepstow: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f
A poor contest and that’s the reason why Dundory appears to be the default favourite as the clear form horse. But all his best form comes with cut in the ground. Fast ground and Chepstow is different gravy.
The same could be argued for Age Of Sail, who ran well on the All-Weather when last seen and who has plenty of soft ground form in his pedigree.
However, at least we know for sure he does act on decent to fast ground as he was placed multiple times in these conditions last season, although never on quite as fast ground as expected here.
In any case, he’s one of my older Handicappers to follow this season and I waited patiently for his return to turf. I liked his two runs this year at Lingfield:
He was outpaced on his season reappearance in a sprint finish travelling off the pace, but he finished best in the final furlong, actually. Up to 1m 5f the next time with a visor applied, he tried to steel it from the front but tired badly in the closing stages for third place.
A slight drop back to 12 furlongs looks fine for this son of Frankel, although there is plenty of stamina present in his pedigree. The visor is retained and he may be able to dominate here once again. Off a 73 mark he looks potentially well-handicapped in this race back on turf. He caught the eye a few times last season already.
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