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Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham Festival 2017 – Tuesday Preview

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Here it is – Cheltenham is upon us! Well, nearly. Two more sleeps (or even less ,depending when you read this) then it’s the legendary roar that’ll send the horses on their way round Prestbury Park .

This four day bonanza: craziness, beauty, drama and excitement showcasing the best horse racing has to offer. It’ll be a roller coaster week, a draining week, a hopefully rewarding week. Great sport, great races, great horses…. and hopefully great money to be won.

Let the games begin & let us find some winners!

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1.30: Supreme Novices Hurdle

It all kicks off with the Supreme – a surprisingly wide open affair this year. No outstanding star in the line up to get us off to a flyer. Though Willie Mullins saddles the favourite yet again.

However I’m  not yet convinced by Melon – though he might well be the real deal – his lack of experience is a big concern, particularly at a short enough price in a race with plenty of substance and alternatives.

Experience and a bit of stamina usually counts for allot in the Supreme and with that in mind two bigger prices come on to my radar:

There is Nicky Henderson’s progressive River Wylde on one hand. An impressive Grade 2 winner at Kempton in February, he’s shaping like an ideal candidate with the likely decent ground sure to suit.

A point to point recruit, he’s been improving all the time since moving to the Henderson yard, resulting in three wins on the bounce, culminating in a slick performance in the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle.

He beat Elgin that day, mainly because he jumped better. Nonetheless the runner-up is the other one I like here. Not as slick,  bit more workmanlike, but a fine second behind classy Neon Wolf earlier this year, he’s also not stopping to improve with each run and the Alan King yard is quite upbeat about a big run.

Both should be able to outran their price if they are able to keep up with the frantic pace that’s sure to bet set early on.

Selection: 
5pts win – River Wylde @ 10/1 Paddy Power
5pts win – Elgin @ 25/1 Bet365

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2.10: Arkle Tropy

Altior will win this barring something dramatic to happen. He’s way too good for the rest of the field. That makes the betting market without the favourite interesting.

Couple of horses I do like: that’s the Mullins runner Royal Caviar, who’s an excellent jumper, despite the fall at Leopardstown when last seen. Top Notch is another talented individual, though whether this test is what he really wants remains to be seen.

The one I feel who could outrun his price tag is Paul Nicholls’s Le Prezien. The French recruit has had a good  – albeit – light season so far, including a Grade 2 success here at Cheltenham. His Novice hurdle form is excellent too, so it’s fair to assume he might still have a bit more to give than what his current rating suggests.

He seems to be a soft ground horse but I hope he is one who could be staying on up the hill when it matters to pick up the pieces behind Altior.

Selection:
5pts win (w/o Altior) – Le Prezien @ 10/1 Bet365
Edit: 13/03/17, 8.30pm: non-runner (see update below)

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The Ultima appears to be a minefield in my eyes – the two I would be interested in case they do run, are Heron Heights and Champers on Ice, but both are unlikely to line up here, so I leave this race alone.

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3.30: Champion Hurdle

No superstar of the previous years in the race this time around, but that doesn’t make it any less exciting. In fact this incredibly open renewal of the Champion Hurdle has added intrigue given the entry of Buveur D’air who quickly established himself as a leading chance in recent weeks.

Favouite Yanworth has done little wrong and it’s fair to assume there is more to come. The likely frantic pace will suit him and he is a fair favourite, the one they all have to beat. Yet I’m far from excited and am not sure if he is really that much better than some others in this field.

I want to see that he’s a Champion Hurdle horse, given connections also had a good look at the Stayers Hurdle because Yanworth surely is not the most explosive hurdler the world has seen.

The chances of Buveur D’air may hinge on the weather. Rain, to be precise, is needed. If it would arrive he may even go off as favourite, I imagine.Whether that is warranted remains to be seen, but it’s fair to say he’s more home over hurdles than fences and connections did well to change the plan.

Nonetheless, the seemingly underappreciated horse is Petit Mouchoir. Admittedly, I’m not a huge fan of the Gigginstown inmate and the critics are right in saying we don’t know what his form is worth. He seems a solid, but not spectacular individual, one who hasn’t beaten anything of note, yet.

On the positive side: Petit Mouchoir seems a better horse this season. He stepped up his game, has two Grade 1’s to his name and in the end he can’t do much more than beating what#s put in front of him. And let’s not forget he was only narrowly beaten by Buveur D’air at Aintree last season. Both horses may have improved since then, but given all we know, there is likely to be very little between the two.

That means 7/1 seems overpriced. The same could be argued for progressive Brian Power to some extend, while Moon Racer is the dark horse. All in all an intriguing contest, but at given prices and form it’s hard to argue that Petit Mouchoir is not worth a punt in my mind.

Selection: 
10pts win – Petit Mouchoir @ 7/1 Skybet

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4.10: Mares’ Hurdle

Surprise, surprise! Both Limini and Vroum Vroum Mag locking horns in the Mares’ – who’d thought that?! The latter one sets the standard as the convincing winner of this race last year, but she was clearly not right when last seen at Doncaster and whether she is quite 100% after the virus infection is up for debate.

Fair to say that on all evidence plus factoring in potential improvement Limini is the correct favourite. She could have run in the Champion Hurdle and would have not looked out of place there. So she has a serious chance in this race. But I wonder: should she be three or four times the price of Apples Jade? I argue: absolutely not.

The two met last month and Limini won well, but one could argue Apples Jade was back from a small break and will come on for run – probably more so than Limini will. Gorden Elliott’s mare remains to be lightly raced with further progress far from impossible

It’s also been noted by Wullie Mullins that Limini is quite hard on herself, meaning each race takes its toll on her. I wonder whether a big performance as the one she produced only three weeks ago might haven take more out of her than ideal?

All in all at the given prices I do prefer Gordon Elliott’s progressive five year old.

Selection: 
5pts win – Apples Jade @ 5/1 PP

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4.50: National Hunt Novices’ Chase

Every man and his dog seems to be on A Genie In Abottle and that makes perfect sense. But there is no juice left in the price, so looking elsewhere is worthwhile.

Highly speculative and risky, still I like to put forward the case of Tiger Roll. A shaky character, who clearly didn’t quite life up to the promise of his early career. But on his day he can be a classy individual and least we forget he used to be a Triumph Hurdle winner back in the day. Now lining up in a 4 miler seems odd and he may well be found out for stamina, if not for class.

His rating entitles him to have a decent shout, though, and he put a string of decent performances together over the last six races, including a success in the Munster National.

This is a different kettle of fish, but he goes well on decent ground and performed admirably off a break in the past, so it would not surprise me if he outruns his price tag.

Selection:
5pts win – Tiger Roll @ 20/1 Bet365

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5.30: lose Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase

Big field and you can easily make a case for at least a handful of these. But two stand out in terms of potentially being well handicapped: Itsafreebee is an obvious one. Third in the Neptune behind Yorkhill last year, he’s been not reaching those heights over fences yet but a handy drop in the weights and potentially decent ground should ensure he has a huge chance.

From Ireland I like the chance of Tully East. I feel he he hasn’t been seen to his best in his last two starts, probably with this race and his handicap mark in mind. He won over fences back in December and ran really well in the Martin Pipe last year.

Selection:
5pts win – Itsafreebee @ 12/1 Paddy Power
5pts win – Tully East @ 20/1 Bet365

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Update: Arkle Trophy

With Le Prezien out, my interest is now firmly around Willie Mullins’s Royal Caviar. As mentioned in my initial preview of the race, he strikes me as an excellent jumper and most likely would have won the Irish Arkle if – ironically – not for a fall at the last.

His overall win record is dismal, but he’s rarely been out of the money and I would expect him to run a fine race, with a good chance of finishing second or third behind Altior.

Selection:
10pts Place – Royal Caviar @ 6/4 Skybet

Racing Talk

Tuesday’s Racing Talk

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OFF to a flyer for the week. Simcock’s maidens delivered once again. I needed it after some pretty shocking days.

Mystic Dawn provided win number 10 of 33 runners in maidens for the Simcock yard this year – but even more impressive how he gets his juveniles ready: a 50% strike rate with 2 year olds first time out is nothing short of remarkable!

Controversial Racingpost Cover

It must be a real slow-burning morning if  the racing world’s discussing passionately today’s Racingpost front cover. It talks about some type of ‘celebrities’ and second tier football players being banned from racing after misbehaving at the Cheltenham Festival, which – if you might wonder – lies more than five month behind us!

I honestly haven’t heard of these guys before, though remember there were some ugly incidents at the Festival. It seems to spark some sort public debate, so it’s probably fair to be reported on.

Whether it has to grace the front cover of the “racing bible” is debatable, but then it could be argued the Racingpost didn’t exactly stood out for quality reading content in the last number of years anyway.

Can’t remember when I picked up a ‘Post the last time. It’s just not worth it. Very few interesting articles, mostly banal betting previews plus race cards. Where’s the value for money? I don’t see it.

Every half decent newspaper offers racecards and some articles on the sport on any given day. If I want to pick up a fine racing related publication then it has to be the Irish Field, which is a weekly paper, and provides plenty of compelling content.

Legislate the Stallion

The 2014 Durban July winner Legislate seems to settle in nicely in his new job. After four highly successful seasons on the race tracks of South Africa, here’s hoping his offspring can emulate his brilliant daddy once they hit the track.

He’s been one of those horses that found a place in my heart.Quick, flashy, good looking, lovely turn of foot, durable, tough, classy.

A 4 times winner in Grade 1 competition, who was able to stay the demanding July trip, but also was quick enough to be crowned champion miler.Just a pity we never saw him outside of South Africa, which was very much down to the harsh quarantine restrictions placed on the country.

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Tuesday Selections:

Only one for today. Wonderfully well bred Aflame was an excellent winner over course and distance the last time and looked to have plenty in hand, albeit she idled a bit once in front. A 5lb rise in the mark is unlikely to stop her.

4.30 Yarmouth: Aflame @ 6/4 Skybet

Cheltenham Festival

Third Time Lucky Annie!

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Cheltenham is well and truly alive! But beware, blink with an eye and it’s all over! Not quite yet though… thankfully. Now, the opening Tuesday has been a remarkable day. For many different reasons. Some good, some not so good. First of all let me confess: I had a shite day punting wise.

By hopes rested firmly on the back of Identity Thief – boy oh boy, he bombed out! All the hype, I wanted to believe it. Forget it. He looked beaten halfway through the race. Silver Concorde? Never seen closer than last.

On a side-note: William Hill was gracious enough to allow me a €2.38 stake on a longshot in one of the big Handicaps. Not 30 quid, not ten, not five, and no – certainly not €2.40. The risk was too high of me robbing them of their annual profits, it seems!

Anyway, let’s quickly recap what happened; writing this while watching the replay package on Racing UK.

Bin those Mullins Accas

Altior, what can you say. That was f***ing impressive! Got a peach of a ride and the way he flew up the hill… imagine he’d be trained by Willie M! Bookies would beat each other over “who makes the silliest ante-post quote for Cheltenham 2017”.

Says, there actually where some questionable quotes flying around soon after Altior crossed the line….

Min jumped like a 15 year old chaser. Sometimes big and round, sometimes clumsy, but certainly not as sharp as expected. Maybe he didn’t like the track. The hype around him has certainly stalled. But I wouldn’t give up on him. He remains a nice prospect. The prospects for all those wild accumulators including Willie Mullins’ horses are bleak after this, though. Call that off to a bad start….

Douvan, Douvan, oooohhh you lovely Douvan

What a superstar. Watching him jump his fences is a thing of beauty. So athletic, so accurate – it’s beautiful. Simple as that. He’s made all and won comfortably. As expected.

To be fair he didn’t really have a race on his hand once jumping the second last, mainly because Vainteux fell, who was trying to challenge hard, but even more so because the wobbling Vainteux hampered the eye-catchingly strong travelling The Game Changer big time!

The Game Changer looked for a split second like he’d be able to transform his name into reality. Turning for home, approaching the second last, he clearly came with a huge run…. for second.

Annie Jumps the Last

She did it, but I’m sure thousands of punters collectivity held their breath when Annie Power approached the last hurdle clear of the rest. She didn’t fall this time, so she won – and she won well.

She was the class act, received 7lb from her male rivals and as called out in my preview of the race she made full use of her tactical advantage – to run the finishing kick out of her male rivals. How could they let her go off at 5/2?! Sounds all so easy in the aftermath. Of course I didn’t back her. But I’m delighted for the mare. She deserved this.

My Tent or Yours ran a tremendous race finishing second. Almost two years off the track, all those niggling problems , yet travelling so well here. Excellent training performance Nicky! The New One wasn’t good enough though. Can connections except that? They seemed to find it hard conceding defeat in the past, that’s for sure. But let me say this: TNO is a good two miler, however not a brilliant one.

Vroum Vroum all class in crappy Mares’ Hurdle

Class prevailed. Never in danger, never in doubt, Ruby gave Vroum Vroum Mag an ultra confident ride. She had way too much on her plate for the rest of the field. It wasn’t exactly competitive racing, and while that can happen if one horse stand head and shoulders above the rest, the Mares’ Hurdle is a crap race.

VVM is a really nice mare, to make her run a race against inferiour opposition, a race where most are clearly not up to the highest level – it’s an insult to the mare, it undermines her class. She deserves to be tested in a real championship race, where she can show off her true talent. Personally I’d scrap the Mares’ Hurdle right away.

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Wednesday Outlook:

An intriguing Champion Chase is awaiting us tomorrow as well. UDS wins with a clear round of jumping, right? I made that point in my Champion Chase Preview as well as waving the flag for a big run of Sizing Granite. Though I’d really love to see Sprinter Sacre running one more big race. How awesome would that be?!

I also mentioned before I do fancy Very Much So in the bumper. He’s currently on the drift. Probably not a good sign, admittedly. Other than that I haven’t have a strong opinion on any of the other races yet, except for the Cross Country Chase!

 

4:10 Cross Country Chase

I’m a big fan of this race and that makes me probably a loner in the world of horse racing. Most people slate cross-country races, in fact hate them with passion – which is fine – though I love the purity of it, the diversity of the course and fences, the enormous test it provides for horse and rider. It’s a race for the eyes as well, it brings out the beauty of jump racing.

Last years winner Rivage D’Or – one of my brighter moments writing this blog, I tipped him for a huge price last year – is going to post to defend his crown. However there is very little evidence that he’s in any sort of form to go even close. I pass him over this time.

I find it hard to make sense of the field, with a rather short-priced favourite, who ticks plenty of the right boxes, but it simply a very short price for a race where plenty of different scenarios can play out.

We saw it last year, where Quantitativeeasing travelled really well but was bumped out at one of the last jumps towards the end of the race. He may have won the race that day and therefore must be a good thing this time around again. I just don’t feel confident about it, maybe because he had his chances here in the past and didn’t take them. As an 11 year old there is very little chance for more improvement too.

I want to find something unexposed with the potential to take to this type of race and bit of improvement potentially left. So the older horses aren’t doing it for me. But I got stuxk with nine year old Dolatulo.

Not necessarily an unexposed type, but one who’s progressed into a fair stayer last season, who took well to the National fences and who acts on better ground. He’s rated to be in with a fair shout if he acts on the cross-country course. He’s schooled over it in the past, so I guess connections have a good feeling of throwing him into this. So have I. This test could be tailor made for Dolatulo. He’s 28/1 with Paddy Power, which looks a tremendous price.

Selection: Dolatulo

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The Vautour Saga

One last thing: There was a bit of hysteria in the twitter world  when it was made public this morning that Vautour is not heading for the Gold Cup, instead goes for the shorter Ryanair Chase! It’s easy to see where most critics are coming from, nonetheless I feel there is a fair bit of hypocrisy in the outcry too.

Since when do people take words from owners and trainer literally? And whatever, if you punt ante-post you know the rules. It’s that simple. Horses are no machines, can get knocks any given second. If that happens, plans can suddenly  change. Yes it’s true, Richi Rich told the world Vautour would go for Gold or nothing, but at the very same time one didn’t have to look very hard to find rumours stating the opposite. So there was something surely not as 100% clear within the yard as it seemed through the Ricci word.

But was Ricci simply forced to be bullish? All those questions, any given day, the speculations, anyone with an opinion, particularly on the Preview Nights Circus, which is more like an industry these days. All the hype, starting month and month in advance. Why not let the people involved with the horses do their job? Why do we need clear-cut answers weeks in advance? Can’t we not wait until the Festival is finally upon us? I understand, people love an ante-post bet. But hey, if you do so, you know the risks involved.

This is not nesascarily an excuse for what happened. What happened is clearly quite unfortunate. It’s just some thoughts that came to my mind when I read all of it this morning. There are always two sides to the coin and the truth generally lies somewhere in the middle.

That says I would have loved to see Vautour trying the Gold Cup trip. It added to the intrigue of the big race. However for some weeks now I also have a big wager on him in the Ryanair with the NRNB insurance. I’m pretty happy right now cause this was a win-win

If Vautour would runsin the Gold Cup he gets outstayed by Don Poli (yes, that’s the winner of the 2016 Cheltenham Gold Cup=. But having him in the market helped to get a bigger price on the Gigginstown horse. The only concern for my Rynair bet now: Vautour’s apparently only 90% and doesn’t show the same sparkle as last year. I’m not so worried about the fitness as more about the spark. Did the King George took too much out of him?

Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham Thoughts Part II

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Some more thoughts on a couple of races – anything else will be posted throughout the week. Then I’ll be concentrating mainly on the handicaps on with a new rating system, which may or may not prove profitable. We shall see. Btw. if you can’t get enough of reading other people’s Festival previews, well, then you may wanna check out my Cheltenham Thoughts Part 1 and not to forget the Gold Cup Preview either!

 

Tuesday: Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (Grade 1)

All about Douvan here of course. It should be a procession of pure class if all goes to plan. And that’s fine with me cause I only need my selection from the w/o Douvan merket to finish runner-up. Easy!

No seriously, I find it slightly odd that Gordon Elliott’s The Game Changer doesn’t get any love at in the betting. It seems his chances are are almost entirely dismissed by the general public, what seems to favour Vainteux and Sizing John to play second and third fiddle behind the almighty Douvan. Which is fair enough. Both are certainly progressive Novice Chasers in their very own right, and sure, their form is a bit more sexy I guess. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they are better prospects than The Game Changer. Right?

The Game Changer hasn’t run since Punchestown in October, when completing a hat-trick of wins. He’s had a wind op since then, which is a bit of a concern. But we also didn’t see him because connections didn’t want to waste him on bottomless ground which prevailed oh so often over the winter here in Ireland this season .

Thankfully the sun is out, the ground is drying at Cheltenham, a fact that will very much suit this lad who loves a sound surface. In fact those conditions may even bring out some further improvement particularly in combination with the wind op, given he already was already a progressive individual before his break.

More to like: The Game Changer’s. It’s accurate. Plain and simple. Also he travelles strongly through his races more and than not and posesses a nice turn of foot if he gets his ground. He’s comfortable travelling off the pace and I can see a scenario where he’s ridden with restraint, having place in mind, where he’s held together for as long as possible, but staying  up the hill to finish 2nd, outstaying those who tried to match Douvan earlier.

In the w/o Douvan market he looks a tasty price at 4/1 and no worse a chance than the other two ahead of him in the market. In fact The Game Changer is battle hardened from races outside Novices company, has got his breathing sorted and is sure to love the ground. A big run is clearly on the card.

Selection: The Game Changer (w/o Douvan)

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Tuesday: National Hunt Chase

I probably missed all the good prices but in this type of races I rather prefer to wait and see what line-up we’ve got field and what’s the ground like. It’s out of the hat now, so is there still any sort of value to find? Yes I do believe so.

Two horses in particular I like: Vicente for Paul Nicholls is probably an obvious one here: acts well at this course, looks a stayer through and trough, has still scope for further improvement and will absolutely love the good ground. He should go well as a fresh horse with conditions sure to suit.

Not much more original is to side with Ballychorus, and admittedly value has almost dried up. But I still like the mare from the bottom off the weights with her sex allowance. She can mix it up with the boys as proven in the past. I loved her Leopardstown run over Christmas bar the fall at the last, so it was good to see her back to best subsequently at Thurles. She acts well on good ground, is likely to get the trip and is still open to a fair bit of improvement on what is only her seventh start over fences.

Both horses have good amateu riders in the saddle who should give their moments a fair chance to run to their best. 16/1 and 12/1 respectively is still good enough for me price-wise too.

Selections: Ballychorus & Vicente

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Wednesday: Champion Bumper (Grade 1)

I’m not telling a secret in saying this is a wide open race… take your pick! I pick one of the Mullins armada, which is probably brave enough as those guys are difficult to distinguish.

Nonetheless, Very Much So intrigues me most. I loved the way he won a bumper at Punchestown two years ago. Green like a ripe lime, he overcame his cluelessness and stayed on very strongly, without seeing too much off the whip at all. He just found another gear, which was mightily impressive.

I like even more that the form came on good ground, so very similar to the conditions most likely on Wednesday at Cheltenham. And there is this little fact that this form has worked out tremendously well with plenty of subsequent winners coming out of that race.

There’s a big negative about his chance though: We haven’t seen him since his debut run… which dates back roughly two years now! He’s reported to be in good nick though and there is every chance he’s going to outrun a 16/1 price tag.

Selection: Very Much So

United Kingdom

Cheltenham Preview: Greatwood Hurdle

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2.40 Cheltenham: Greatwood Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap), 2m

Despite the big field and natural competitiveness of the Greatwood, two horses stand out for me: Bouvreuil and Totalize. The former one is only a four year old and surely will have a future as a chaser but should profit from another season over timber, now more experienced and stronger, the Nicholls inmate looks an exciting prospect.

He finished an excellent runner-up in the Fred Winter at the Festival last season which is very strong form in its own right. Back from a break the Greatwood was his early season target, so he should be ready to go today on ground which he’s sure to love. Big field, good pace, soft ground – perfect conditions. Of a mark off 139 looks one with plenty of scope.

Totalize is a different sort. He hasn’t been seen over hurdles for quite a while, instead had not a bad season on the flat. However reportedly he has a schooling run over hurdles in the meantime and seemingly looked good. So does his hurdle form in general.

Back in January 2014 he finished a creditable runner-up here at Cheltenham in a Handicap Hurdle behind classy Lac Fontana. If he could run to that sort of level he’d be right in the mix today off only a 3lb higher mark. Given he may well have improved since then as well as that this is only his eight start over timber, he has some scope as well.

Bouvreuil @ 16/1 William Hill – 5pts Win
Totalize @ 11/1 Racebets – 5pts Win

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Shloer Chase: Can Sprinter bounce back?

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Cheltenham Racecourse

2.10 Cheltenham: Shloer Chase (Grade 2), 2m

Quite an intriguing contest that obviously evolves very much around the question: how good is Sprinter Sacre? His trainer is less than quietly confident, in fact he’s actually been bullish in his comments earlier this week.

Personally I’m not convinced. The problems this former superstar had are well known. Is he really 100% on his seasonal debut? I doubt it. The ground turning softer than you want it for him with all the issues around the breathing is a big question mark, so is the Cheltenham hill these days.

As much as I would love to see Sprinter Sacre back to something close of his best, so much I have to doubt he’ll ever be. In my book he is more like a 6/1 chance in this field than the 5/2 currently on offer. With the ground in mind he may well be taken out anyway.

Another of the old guard of former superstars is Somersby. Surely never been reached the heights of Sprinter Sacre, though the veteran is a multiple Champion Chase runner-up as well as 19 times placed in Graded company! That says he has won only a handful of those and can be best described as a depressing brides mate.

Not getting any younger, the eleven year old veteran would need to be close to his best to win today. Reportedly he’s in good order and I assume he’s geared up for a big run. Whether he has still the class, we’ll find out. He had it last season, certainly, when he finished second – yet again – in the Champion Chase at the Festival.

Having his poor strike rate in mind and the fact that Somersby has actually never won at Cheltenham, he’s probably easy enough to oppose. However in the context of this race, where he receives four pounds from rivals lower rated than him, as well as 10 pounds from Mr Mole, he’s has to have strong credentials, nonetheless.

Mr. Mole, albeit seemingly not really enjoining Cheltenham in the past, would be a huge runner today, if he wouldn’t have to give an awful lot of weight away to the rest of the field. His record as a fresh horse does offset this fact to an extend, but he would need to run to a new level to win this. As a seven year old he could do that, if you want to be positive about his chances.

Croco Bay and Savello are the outsiders in this field, and given their ratings of 151 and 154 you’d expect them to come up short. You can argue both have fitness on their side and – at least in the case of Savello – course and distance form on offer. So neither of them is completely out. Taken the quality of the rest of the field into account I struggle to see them going close, though.

Without the shadow of a doubt Simply Ned has the race at his mercy. The eight year old was runner-up in this contest last year, a race which turned out to be extremely strong form. He has a run under his belt as well, returning to the track in successful manner at Kelso last month.

He looks an improving sort, possible to be even better this year and that gives him a prime chance today. He didn’t land a blow in the Champion Chase last season, though, and has to give 4lb away to Somersby and Sprinter Sacre, despite the fact that these two are higher rated. So he will have to improve again, a bit at least, although those two lads may regress as well.

Summary: Crunch time! This should be exciting to watch. I believe Simply Ned has an excellent chance to take his form to another level. He’s a fair price to do that and clearly is the one to beat. But betting wise I feel the 5/1 on offer for Somersby is generous. Despite his underwhelming win record, the fact that he finished runner-up in the Champion Chase last season gives him the strongest possible credentials in this race.

He receives four pounds from what I believe is the main danger. He’s likely to be fully wound up for the race today and has no issues with the conditions whatsoever. This looks an ideal opportunity to win a race at the jump racing’s HQ at last.

Sommersby @ 5/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

PP Gold Cup: Art Mauresque worth the gamble

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Cheltenham Festival

1.50 Cheltenham: Handicap Chase (Grade 3), 3m 3F 71Y

Some interesting horses in this race but I feel it’s worth a punt to go with still unexposed Knockanrawley. A seven year old who has done pretty well as a fresh horse in the past, he could be on a lenient mark. He won off 6lb lower a big Handicap Chase at Newbury last December and he’s one who won’t have an issue staying the trip today, although 4m 1f seemed a bit too far after all on his final start last season, albeit he was far from disgraced in 4th in the Eider Handicap Chase.

This trip today looks ideal and the arriving rain shouldn’t be an inconvenience. In fact he is two from three in good to soft. It’ll be only his seventh start over fences and the testing Cheltenham course should work in his favour – for a red hot yard and jockey I feel he is a big price.

Knockanrawley @ 14/1 Paddy Power – 5ps Win 

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2.25 Cheltenham: Paddy Power Gold Cup (Grade 3), 2m 4f

Is this the one for Art Mauresque to lose? I feel so. well, it depends on how much more rain we get, but if it stays as it is now, it shouldn’t be too much of a problem for this rapidly improving Paul Nicholls inmate.

He was good on his debut run but improved big time here at Cheltenham last month when he landed a decent Novice Chase. Yes, Parlour Games was disappointing that day, but the runner-up has franked the form yesterday, to an extend at least. I was mightily impressed with Art Mauresque though, how easily he closed the gap to the leader and how he stormed up the hill.

Of a mark off 147 he is potentially well in here, given the five year old has had only six starts over fences yet, and took each test in his own stride. There is almost certainly more to come.

Says this is obviously an enormously competitive race and a bit of luck is sometimes required. Irish Cavalier, Buywise and Johns Spirit are others I fancy to do well here today, and you could name plenty more that have a fair shot to land the prize.

But at 14/1, despite the uneasy ground, I’m more than prepared to take a gamble on this exciting Art Mauresque, who in my book is overpriced.

Art Mauresque @ 14/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win 

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Cheltenham Preview: Triumph Hurdle Trial

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Cheltenham Festival

12.40 Cheltenham: Triumph Hurdle Trial (Grade 2), 2m

Realistically there are three standout horses in this line-up. I find it easy to discount Coo Star Sivola and Wolf Of Windlesham, although to distinguish the other three runners isn’t that easy.

However, on the fact that Oceane seems to be a good ground lover I’d be slightly concerned about the rain coming. Leaves us with the two French imports Romain De Senam and Fingertips. Both met in France earlier this year, where the Paul Nicholls recruit got the better of the new David Pipe acquisition. It was a very close race, though, only half a lengths between the pair in the end.

Romain De Senam has since been blowing away some minor opposition on his UK debut and should be fit and ready to go today, with the rain a non-issue. In contrast we don’t know whether this here is any more than a pipe opener for Fingertips. The Pipe yard doesn’t really go strongly at the moment, so that is a real concern.

However on a pure price basis I find it hard to ignore Fingertips. Previous form suggests there is not as much between the the pair as the odds suggest. I would imagine connections want to see what they have got and the horse is ready to. Ground should suit though we have to find out how he handles the track.

Fingertips @ 4/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Saturday Betting: Cheltenham

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Nice drift for Dark Spirit today, who won nicely at 11/1 in the end, storming up the hill for her inexperienced rider in the saddle. A relieve, a nice, big winner – finally again! It didn’t continue that way. Drumlee Sunset finished only 2nd. He was beaten for speed in the end.

2.10 Cheltenham: Class 2 Handicap Chase, 2m

Question marks surrounding most of this field, but I do really like Going Concern for the in-form Evan Williams yard. a progressive sort last season over fences, he has won three of his last six starts. He has to defy a career highest mark and was disappointing when last seen in April, but has done well off a break in the past.

Conditions should suit down to the grounds, with the rain expected over Cheltenham tomorrow not having to be an inconvenience

Going Concern @ 11/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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4.30 Cheltenham: Class 2 Novice Chase, 2m 4f

I was initially very much drawn towards Parlour Games. The classy Novice hurdler left a lasting impression but whether this flat bred gelding can take to chasing is very much up in the air. Also I had the perception that he is best on a flat track and that Cheltenham doesn’t quite suit.

As the value alternative I really like Double Shuffle though. Bred to be a chaser, he is still lightly raced, was progressive last year, has form in an Irish point to point and will love the trip. He has only won at flat tracks yet, so Cheltenham is very much an unknown. But with the low weight he makes appeal.

Double Shuffle @ 12/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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Friday Betting: Cheltenham Selections

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The Festival

3.20 Cheltenham: Class 2 Hurdle, 3m

I missed the big prices for Dark Spirit but still feel the current odds represent some fair value in this field for a mare that likes the track, the ground and has won over this sort of trip in the past. Her record fresh is fine and the drop back into handicaps will suit.

She wasn’t disgraced in much better races towards the end last year, however clearly found out for class there. She remains a progressive mare nonetheless and is on fair mark. The help of a decent 10lb claimer is a bonus though, given that the yard is going strongly in recent weeks too.

Dark Spirit @ 6/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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4.30 Cheltenham: Maiden Hurdle, 2m

Drumlee Sunset is a very exciting prospect. Connections paid some good money for him at the sales after he won a pretty good point to point in Ireland. He justified optimism when landing an Exeter NHF in February.

He should be ready to go and instead while the quick ground in combination with the minimum distance is a slight concern, I would expect him to have too much on the plate for his rivals here. Connections could have targeted a better race to start off but want to give him an “easy” race to start the campaign off, building from here on.

Drumlee Sunset @ 11/8 Coral – 10pts Win