4.05 Juvenile Stakes (Group 3), 1m

Tricky renewal with some hot prospects in the line-up. Bolger’s Sanus Per Aquam makes plenty of appeal with excellent form in the book and the step up in trip sure to suit. He’s a very short price though in a race where plenty of potential is still unlocked.

Ballydoyle has a strong hand in this renewal, which Aiden O’Brien won with John F Kennedy last year. Shogun looked smart when he got off the mark at the Curragh earlier this year, but didn’t enjoy soft ground subsequently. So the overnight rain is a big concern, as the inside track is unlikely to dry out enough to suit him.

Seemingly second string, albeit you never really know with this yard, is Johannes Vermeer. Equally an exciting prospect, he impressed me with his nice action and change of gear at Killarney. He put stamina questions to bed as he never seemed to stop in the 1m 100y contest. He may not be too inconvenienced by the ground, given his pedigree.

Dermot Weld’s True Solitaire is another one to like. A big winner at the Galway Festival, he doesn’t mind rain softened ground and is sure to respond well to the step up to 1m.

Restive for Ger Lyons looked a bit lazy, albeit smart enough to held off his opposition in a Curragh maiden recently. He’s a scopey individual, but may not run due to the ground. His other charge Waipu Cove has been in excellent form lately and could do still better, however is more exposed than others here.

Conclusion: Hard to predict what happens. Nonetheless I believe the 7/1 for Johannes Vermeer is rather over the top. I like his pedigree, he’s bred to be precocious, gets the trip, has a good draw and should be okay on the ground.

Johannes Vermeer @ 7/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win