Tag Archives: Aintree

Grand National

Preview: 2017 Grand National

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Who’ll rule the world this year? We gonna find out soon! Last year’s fittingly named Grand National hero does not attempt to defend his crown, but runner-up The Last Samuri tries to go one better this time.

Kim Bailey’s charge has to defy top weight, though – a tough assignment and presumably one that makes it incredibly difficult to win, I’m afraid. Nonetheless Last Samuri looks a very decent each-way shout at the very least.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqpzVHxSADA

You could argue there’s half a dozen in the field who’ll have a decent shout too. What quite clearly becomes evident is the number of younger, to some extend less exposed and certainly classier individuals having a go at the huge Aintree Grand National fences.

This is a trend we’ve seen develop over the last of years and one that has certainly not slowed down.

So, who’s going to win? Well, it’s hard enough to pick the winner so I’ll give you three that instead I do feel are overpriced and can outrun the odds – whether that is enough to get the head in front remains to be seen.

Nr. 10 – Blacklion @ 14/1: The eight year old will have to race off a four pound higher mark in the future, that meas he’s potentially well in here. In fact he’s got a near perfect profile for the National, one could say he is some sort of a sexy trend horse.

Fact is he’s got the form in the book, ran really well this season, has come close a number of times and has form that ties in with other very well fancied National contenders. He’ll stay and enjoys decent ground – also he’s never been a faller in his whole career.

Nr. 29 – Vicente @ 25/1: Potentially a smart horse who’s recently been purchased by the connections of previous National winner Many Clouds.

Fair to say things did not quite pan out as hoped this season after a fantastic 15/16 campaign that culminated in a Scottish Grand National success. You have to trust his trainer to have him right for the big day but if that’s the case then Vicente must have a big chance of his weight with conditions sure to suit.

Nr. 7 – Wounded Warrior @ 80/1: had his issues lately and has to be trusted to find back to his best. But apparently schooled well and is in fine order.

Clearly a classy individual on his day with Grade 1 chasing form in the book. He stays all day long and won’t mind the fast ground either. A decent sixth place finish – albeit a long way beaten – in the Theystes Handicap shows there is still some life in him.

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3.40 Betway Handicap Chase

I loved the run of Potters Legend at Cheltenham in the Kim Muir last month. This progressive first season Novice Chaser won a couple of races earlier this season and then finished with plenty of credit in better grades the next four times.

His Festival run clearly the most eye-catching one. He made a serious mistake three from home and nearly came down, but rallied incredibly strongly to get on terms with the leaders half a furlong out, to eventually fade into 4th place.

The ground and flatter track may suit him well here and if he can hold his form after a long season – and that is in my mind the most pressing question – he’s got to be a serious contender.

Selection:
10pts win – Potters Legend @ 12/1 Betfair SB

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4.20 Liverpool Hurdle 

Yanworth comes here with a big reputation. Plenty speaks in his favour if he does what he promises: staying the trip. Question: after a long season and a below par run at Cheltenham, does he still have enough left in the locker? And if he has, is he good enough against some seasoned stayers?

In my book he is a fair price. You can argue that Coral Cup winner Supasundae is probably better value. Equally progressive but stays the trip and acts on the ground.

However this should be the pay day for a previous World Hurdle hero: Cole Harden. He was not favoured by the watering and slower than expected ground at Cheltenham last month, still ran a huge race in fourth.

Blinkers on, good ground here a given and a not overly hard season on the clock; Cole Harden looks primed to run a big race from the front and will take allot of beating.

Selection:
10pts win – Cole Harden @ 11/2 PP

Aintree

Bristol holds the Key

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Here’s Aintree! The jumps are back! Wait, what? Wasn’t the flat just back? Well, yes…. and no. It’s one of those strange anomalies of the racing year where the start of the flat overlaps with the end of the jumps season.

It’s kinda strange, confuses me every year anew – the Lincon’s run, the first good flat horses are out, yet here we are gearing up for the Grand National?!

Whatever. Monday nights at Windsor are only four sleeps away. Until then we have one last hooray for hurdles and fences.

Admittedly, due to anomaly mentioned above, I clearly am not as excited about the Aintree Festival as I’ve been for Cheltenham. My gut feeling is I’m not the only one who shares the same sentiment.

I keep my betting to a bare minimum but as ever will try i vein to find the winner of the National Lottery….. that’s for Saturday though. Only one race I care about today at Aintree – that’s the “poor cousin’s Gold Cup” – the Bowl Chase.

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2.50 Aintree: Bowl Chase, 3m 1f

Cue Card greets from the top of the betting. The old boy still goes strongly as he proved this season. Question: what did yet another fall in the Cheltenham Gold Cup did to his psyche?

Empire Of Dirt flies the flag for Ireland. Slightly disappointing in the Rynair Chase, but he’ll love this trip and track and is my idea of the most likely winner.

He’s not my idea of a value bet, though. That’s at given prices clearly Bristol De Mai. Of course I have to say this, because I fancied this lad for the Gold Cup quite a bit too. He’s got some issues, jumping is sketchy, however he posses an abundance of ability and is still only a six year old.

The track will suit him, he did not have a n overly hard season and may be the one who has still something left at this stage of the year.

Selection:
5pts win – Bristol De Mai @ 6/1 Bet365

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6.45 Chelmsford: 1m Handicap, 3yo

Andrew Balding’s Drochaid jumps out here. He’s a big price – too big in my eyes. He is nicely bred and was progressive as a juvenile, won a good maiden at the fourth time of asking, with subsequent winners behind in second and third.

He’s bound to improve as a three year old and returns to the track after a seasonal break. He drops into a class 4 Handicap on his AW debut with a mark that might underestimate him.

Mastercraftsman offspring tend to perform well at Chelmsford and the Balding yard is flying high in the last handful of weeks. It has to be said Drochaid encounters a strong favourite with Hannon’s Mustarrid here and this might be only a pipe opener, but at 16’s I’m inclined to have a small bet.

Selection:
5pts win – Drochaid @ 16/1 Skybet

Grand National

Grand National: Many Clouds the one to Beat

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It’s the big one – Grand National Day has arrived! A race that captures the imagination like no other. A worldwide TV audience of over 100 million tunes in for the greatest horse race of them all!

It puts racing on the front pages, it demonstrates the resilience, power and beauty of the race horse and the sport. Yet it can swiftly produce those shocking images of dying horses, asked to do the near impossible, jumping error free those huge fences.

Animal welfare is always a huge concern, a huge issue on this particular day. Those fanatics who want to ban the sport will sit in front of the TV, a mouse click away from publishing their articles on cruelty of the sport, though their conflict of interest, wanting to slate the sport for the “love of the animal”, yet their need for dead horses to fulfil this purpose – I feel sorry for these poor souls.

Let’s focus on what’s important: the race is safer than ever. Through changes made it might have lost some of its brutal spectacle of the past but in my mind it remains the ultimate test for horse and rider – just a bit safer, not necessarily easier.

I’ve been to Aintree myself last year, my first National “in flesh”. Some experience, indeed. I saw the brilliant winner Many Clouds, who was far more superior than the winning margin suggested.

Can he do it again? Possibly! In my mind Many Clouds is the one defending champ who has the best chance in a very long time to actually defend his crown. That is because the conditions are near perfect for him, but more importantly he retained his class and will to race after winning the big one. So many National winners never really came back – he sure did!

Many Clouds has been in excellent form throughout the season, with the National the ultimate aim. He looked brilliant in his final prep run at Kelso. Yes, you could say his handicap mark is five pounds higher than last year, but I say it’s a fair reflection of his improvement and well being and unlikely to stop him. He was easily those five pounds better than the rest last year, and I suspect it does still not reflect his true ability.

I do really fancy his chances! He’s proven over this special test, he’s a good traveller, he jumps really well, has the form in the book – he’s the one to beat, no doubt. At 10/1 I’m in!

There are two other horses I do quite like too: Sir Des Champs is one. Ruby Walsh had to give up the ride due to an injury sustained when he fell on Vautour yesterday. Replacement Nina Carberry is equal to the task.

I always had a soft spot for Sir Des Champes, probably because I won big on him at Cheltenham. But this brute of a horse has an aura…. It was great to see him winning on his comeback this season after a long absence. He was found out for class the last two times, but in fairness you don’t need to be a Grade 1 horse to win the National. You’ve got to have the right attitude, have a good  handicap mark and be a sound jumper.

All that is Sir Des Champs. On a mark off 154 dropped into a handicap he should go close I believe, considering this represents a huge drop in class too. Stamina and jumping are his game, so I would expect him to perform really well. He’s a fine 25/1 shot.

The other one I like is Holywell. It’s really not difficult to see why. He usually comes alive at this time of the year as he prefers the slightly better ground. He proves to be in excellent form after finishing a gallant runner-up in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham. The winner of that particular race has bombed out yesterday, although when thrown into Grade 1 company.

The National could be the right test to bring out the best of Holywell. His mark is clearly fair, could actually underestimate his true class, given he goes so well at Aintree, in spring, on this type of ground. He’s a 16/1 shot.

Both Sir Des Champs and Holywell are available at those prices with Bet365 where you can get half your stake refunded for an each-way bet. That sounds’s pretty fair to me. Good luck – and fingers crossed all horses come home safe.

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Aintree: Jonjo’s second string a big player

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Aintree Grand National

1.55 Aintree: Class 2 Handicap Hurdle, 3m 149y

Intriguing to see Shutthefrontdoor back over hurdles. The former Irish Grand National winner should enjoy the conditions and trip and has done well as a fresh horse in the past, however as top weight of a mark off 146 he would have to be at his absolute very best to land this, given the last hurdle race he won was off 135. He may well be a better horse nowadays, nonetheless, it’s not an easy task.

Favourite is race fit Our Kaempfer. I was quite interested in this lad the other day at Chepstow. He ran well but was still a good deal beaten. He has to prove that he can stay this trip now, but if he does he’d be a major chance, given this is an easier race and he’s still quite unexposed.

To an extend the same goes for Broybourne. Quite a good handicapper on the the flat, winner of a 2m handicap when rated 89, he has taken well to hurdles. He has been placed in a Listed handicap Hurdle back in April and that form gives him a good chance if his stamina holds up, although he’s much higher in the mark now and will certainly need to take another step forward.

Shotavodka is quite an interesting contender. He was an excellent second on his seasonal reappearance last week and is certainly down to a handy mark judged on past performances. Question mark is the trip. He has been placed over 3m before but his best performances are all over much shorter.

Jonjo O’Neill’s second string Join The Clan has been progressive last season, winning twice in Handicap company over hurdles over three miles plus. He couldn’t match those performances when upped in class subsequently but comes back as a fresh horse now which might be the secret to him. Down to a fair mark at the moment, he’ll certainly any rain that’s falling until the start of the race.

With conditions sure to suit I think this lad has as good a chance as anybody in this wide open race. Having the assistance of excellent 7lb claimer Patrick Cowley, who has won on Join The Clan before, is also a big plus. He seems a rather huge price in my eyes and should outrun this price tag.

Join The Clan @ 14/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

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Wincanton: Don’t underestimate Best Boy Barney

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Aintree parade ring

2.30 Aintree: Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Class 2)

It’s easy to see why Danimix is favoured to complete a hat-trick today. He was utterly impressive in his last two, for whatever reason clearly a rejuvenated horse and this race doesn’t look too deep. Question mark is a career highest mark.

Better value than the 5/2 favourite may be Grade 2 winning chaser Ely Brown. It is a concern that he didn’t complete either of his last three races, but the break will likely done him the world of good and his record as a fresh horse is remarkable. He has won twice at Aintree before and also over the 3m 1f trip.

He gets a big chance by the handicapper, having been dropped to 135 now – his last winning mark, albeit over hurdles. But judged on Novice Chase Grade 2 success, he could be leniently treated today, if he can find his old sparkle back. Top jockey is booked, so he has every chance to run well.

Ely Brown @ 6/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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2.45 Wincanton: Handicap Chase (Class 3)

Competitive stayers contest where most of the eight starts are in with a fair chance. The “sexy” horse the Nicholls favourite Cowards Close but given the competitive nature of this race, he’s a skinny price. If According To Trev could find back to his best form, he’d be a prime selection for this race, but his last three starts are clear reason for concern.

I do like Handy Andy as the bottom weight to go well, his poor win record puts me off though. Forgotten Gold and Standing Ovation have a decent shout in this, but Best Boy Barney looks underestimated in this field.

He has been mostly competitive in his last handful or so starts, rarely goes really wrong. He won at Kempton back in April a good chase and followed up with another nice performance at the same venue when runner-up behind Champion Court – a very strong piece of form.

He didn’t quite run to the same sort of form the next two, but this here looks a bit easier, and with conditions sure to suit as well as fitness assured, he could run a big race.

Best Boy Barney @ 12/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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Preview: Monet’s Garden Old Roan Chase

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Aintree Racecourse

A hugely competitive renewal of this Grade 2 race, certainly a tougher contest than the one Wishful Thinking won last year. The 12 year old has a difficult task on hand to try and defend his crown. Because he is down to last years handicap mark he is not completely out of it, but others make certainly more appeal.

Jonjo O’Neill’s Johns Spirit is one of those well fancied runners. He’s done remarkably well as a fresh horse in the last number of years, so a bold bid is expected. A career best is required, but this progressive chaser has a good chance to go close judged on his fair effort in the Grade 1 Melling Chase when last seen at this very same venue.

Rajdhani Express has won here at Aintree over the Grand National fences on his final start last season. He is competitive on that particular form obviously, although his win record isn’t all that impressive and a big mark makes life not easy today against excellent opposition.

Always improving over the last two seasons has been Paul Nicholls’ charge Sound Investment. The seven year old won four of his ten starts over fences and was placed in three more of those. He rounded up last season with an excellent Grade 3 success at Newbury and connections will hope for further progress this year.

He already has a prep run under his belt – he run okay in a competitive Grade 3 hurdle a fortnight ago and was lucky not to exit the race after the first when his young jockey almost fell off. He’s expected to come on for the run and that should put him right into the mix here of a good mark.

Another rather lightly raced sort over fences is Buywise, who already has a Grade 2 success to his name. Last season he only won over hurdles, although he was competitive in strong races, mostly around Cheltenham. He’s on a competitive mark but will need to prove that he can act on this flat speed track as well.

Duke Of Navan is an interesting contender. So far mostly tested over two miles, he will step up in trip and we find out whether his stamina holds up. If he stays the distance he’ll be right there when it matters I suspect.

It’s hard to trust Splash Of Ginge these day but on best form he can be in the mix. The Irish bring over Lord Ben. A versatile chaser, who was not disgraced when last seen at Listowel behind a good Gigginstown winner, although more is required here.

You can’t fully rule out Brave Spartacus who has fitness on his side. He’s already a Listed Chase winner and could improve again. It’s harder to make a case for Surf An Turf and also Le Bacardy, as those two will have to prove their worthiness in this competitive field.

Summary: This is an excellent renewal: competitive and close to call. Price wise I feel Sound Investment makes the most appeal though. He’s expected to be fit and is a progressive sort, probably not at the end of the road yet in terms of improvement and should love the conditions here. His mark gives him every chance and connections had this race in mind for a long time.

Sound Investment @ 9/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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Photos – 2015 Grand National Weekend

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WOW – It’s been a massive weekend! I’m just back from Aintree… and sorting my photos. That says, the National day started with a huge disappointment for me personally actually, when I was refused entry with my camera. Though, I got lucky at the end, when after the last race – I was handed back my cam by this time – they paraded Grand National winner Many Clouds in front of the stands once again – so I took the chance, went back in and got my lucky snaps of the champ!

The day before I had a quick stop-over at Leicester Racecourse. A beautiful track. Cosy and relaxed. It was from there where I got to know the big result from South Africa & Saratoga Dancer – my 10/1 Friday selection at Greyville! It’s going well in that sense lately. On the other hand my ante-post National fancy Rocky Creek didn’t do the job. But that’s alright, the National was won by an absolute superstar!

So, here’re some photos from Leicester, The Grand National and of course Many Clouds. Hope you enjoy them as much as I enjoyed taking them!

Grand National winner Many Clouds

Aintree Grand National

Leicester Racecourse

Click Images to view in full size
All Photos: Credit Florian Christoph

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIad3T4W2UA

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Preview – Aintree Hurdle

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Jezki

I wasn’t sure about this race but seeing how prices develop I find it impossible to not have a small interest in Rock On Ruby. Now available at 4/1, I believe he is too big. This race looks very competitive, and evolves mainly around the first three in the market. It’s hard to distinguish them but I feel that Rock On Ruby is the one who has conditions 100% to suit.

Arctic Fire obviously is very attractive. He shapes as a horse that needs this trip, as he usually runs on strongly over two miles. His runner-up effort in the Champion Hurdle behind Faugheen was visually impressive. However he had a couple of hard races already, and the fact that he usually finds one or two too good, makes is somewhat worrying for – a 7/4 shot at least!

The 2014 Champion Hurdle winner Jezki has been a disappointment this season so far. He has to show much more and I’m not sure if he can suddenly step up big time. He’s a spring horse as we know, and has won a Grade 1 over this trip in the past. That’s the clear positives on the other hand. I rather don’t want to find out with my money if he can find back to his best, though.

Rock On Ruby in contrast, skipped Cheltenham and should be fresh and spot on for this race. He finished a gallant runner-up last year and 2m 4f appears to be his optimum trip these days. Ground conditions are sure to suit and he showed himself in good light this season. A bold bid is very much on the cards today and he looks the value against the other two.

3.25 Aintree: Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1)
Rock On Ruby @ 4/1 Paddy Power – 5pts win

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Preview – Aintree Grand Opening Day 2015

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DSC_0330

Day one of the Aintree Grand National Festival. A brilliant card of top class jump racing is awaiting us – four Grade 1 races – that is simply sensational! The Aintree Hurdle in particular shapes as a cracker with the likes of Jezki, Arctic Fire and Rock On Ruby tackling the 2m 4f trip. Probably not a race to bet on, but to simply sit back and enjoy. Betting wise I’ve two selections for the day:

1.40 One Magnificent City Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

The first four in the betting have all been beaten by the same horse at Cheltenham… in fact they have been demolished. A sigh of relive for connections – there’s no Un De Sceaux here today! Josses Hill was the one who fared best last month, he finished a creditable third. He got a very good ride that day but was clearly ridden for a place. Things are different today and for that simple reason he looks short enough in the betting. He may not be able to ride his own race in a way he could do it the last time.

Vibrato Valtat may get closer this time with a different ride. He remains with potential, while Clarcam needs to show big improvement to be competitive. You could pick holes in each of the three better fancied runners here and I feel this might be one for an upset.

If there is a horse that looks potentially capable of causing an upset then it is Cash And Go. He’s been a decent hurdler, finished 3rd in a Grade 3 here at Aintree last season. He improved gradually this season over fences. Unseated his rider on his Chase debut, battled and won well the next time and demolished a small field in a minor race most recently.

He is still learning his game over the bigger obstacles and needs to improve his jumping if he wants to be competitive here. But he is a nice prospect, with more improvement to come and he may well be up to this class. I like to select him as a big price against the better fancied market leaders.

Cash And Go @ 20/1 Bet365 – 5pts win

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3.25 Aintree: Betfred Bowl Chase (Grade 1)

It’ll be interesting to see how much the big guns have still left in the tank after a tough season and Cheltenham in particular. That says I’m surprised how the betting shapes for this race. Holywell looks an exciting prospect, no doubt, and he wasn’t disgraced in the Gold Cup at all. But I feel he is a wrong favourite. And improving sort with loads of potential – yes. But he hasn’t done yet what a Silviniaco Conti has done.

Conti was certainly disappointing at Cheltenham. However this was his only poor performance this season, ignoring his seasonal reappearance. Cheltenham doesn’t suit Conti, but Aintree does. He won this very same race last year, and the fact that he was such an impressive winner of the King George, should give him every right to be the favourite for this race.

The mare Ma Filleule is a consistent individual, always well fancied in the big races with her sex allowance, but she hasn’t been able to get her head in front in her last three races, where she had every chance to do so. She looks just a tick below the very best horses in this field. Don’t underestimate Menorah. On his day he could always spring a surprise. He’s kept fresh and has conditions to suit. But on most occasions he has been beaten by Conti in the past, and that should be the fate here again today.

Silviniaco Conti at 3/1 is a full point too big in my mind. It remains to be seen what damage the Gold Cup has done to him. But he bounced back last year to win this race, so I don’t see a reason why the same shouldn’t happen today again. He’s the class act in the field and I expect a big run with conditions sure to suit.

Silviniaco Conti @ 3/1 Bet365 – 10pts win