Tag Archives: Holywell

Grand National: Many Clouds the one to Beat

It’s the big one – Grand National Day has arrived! A race that captures the imagination like no other. A worldwide TV audience of over 100 million tunes in for the greatest horse race of them all!

It puts racing on the front pages, it demonstrates the resilience, power and beauty of the race horse and the sport. Yet it can swiftly produce those shocking images of dying horses, asked to do the near impossible, jumping error free those huge fences.

Animal welfare is always a huge concern, a huge issue on this particular day. Those fanatics who want to ban the sport will sit in front of the TV, a mouse click away from publishing their articles on cruelty of the sport, though their conflict of interest, wanting to slate the sport for the “love of the animal”, yet their need for dead horses to fulfil this purpose – I feel sorry for these poor souls.

Let’s focus on what’s important: the race is safer than ever. Through changes made it might have lost some of its brutal spectacle of the past but in my mind it remains the ultimate test for horse and rider – just a bit safer, not necessarily easier.

I’ve been to Aintree myself last year, my first National “in flesh”. Some experience, indeed. I saw the brilliant winner Many Clouds, who was far more superior than the winning margin suggested.

Can he do it again? Possibly! In my mind Many Clouds is the one defending champ who has the best chance in a very long time to actually defend his crown. That is because the conditions are near perfect for him, but more importantly he retained his class and will to race after winning the big one. So many National winners never really came back – he sure did!

Many Clouds has been in excellent form throughout the season, with the National the ultimate aim. He looked brilliant in his final prep run at Kelso. Yes, you could say his handicap mark is five pounds higher than last year, but I say it’s a fair reflection of his improvement and well being and unlikely to stop him. He was easily those five pounds better than the rest last year, and I suspect it does still not reflect his true ability.

I do really fancy his chances! He’s proven over this special test, he’s a good traveller, he jumps really well, has the form in the book – he’s the one to beat, no doubt. At 10/1 I’m in!

There are two other horses I do quite like too: Sir Des Champs is one. Ruby Walsh had to give up the ride due to an injury sustained when he fell on Vautour yesterday. Replacement Nina Carberry is equal to the task.

I always had a soft spot for Sir Des Champes, probably because I won big on him at Cheltenham. But this brute of a horse has an aura…. It was great to see him winning on his comeback this season after a long absence. He was found out for class the last two times, but in fairness you don’t need to be a Grade 1 horse to win the National. You’ve got to have the right attitude, have a good  handicap mark and be a sound jumper.

All that is Sir Des Champs. On a mark off 154 dropped into a handicap he should go close I believe, considering this represents a huge drop in class too. Stamina and jumping are his game, so I would expect him to perform really well. He’s a fine 25/1 shot.

The other one I like is Holywell. It’s really not difficult to see why. He usually comes alive at this time of the year as he prefers the slightly better ground. He proves to be in excellent form after finishing a gallant runner-up in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham. The winner of that particular race has bombed out yesterday, although when thrown into Grade 1 company.

The National could be the right test to bring out the best of Holywell. His mark is clearly fair, could actually underestimate his true class, given he goes so well at Aintree, in spring, on this type of ground. He’s a 16/1 shot.

Both Sir Des Champs and Holywell are available at those prices with Bet365 where you can get half your stake refunded for an each-way bet. That sounds’s pretty fair to me. Good luck – and fingers crossed all horses come home safe.

Preview – Aintree Grand Opening Day 2015

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Day one of the Aintree Grand National Festival. A brilliant card of top class jump racing is awaiting us – four Grade 1 races – that is simply sensational! The Aintree Hurdle in particular shapes as a cracker with the likes of Jezki, Arctic Fire and Rock On Ruby tackling the 2m 4f trip. Probably not a race to bet on, but to simply sit back and enjoy. Betting wise I’ve two selections for the day:

1.40 One Magnificent City Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

The first four in the betting have all been beaten by the same horse at Cheltenham… in fact they have been demolished. A sigh of relive for connections – there’s no Un De Sceaux here today! Josses Hill was the one who fared best last month, he finished a creditable third. He got a very good ride that day but was clearly ridden for a place. Things are different today and for that simple reason he looks short enough in the betting. He may not be able to ride his own race in a way he could do it the last time.

Vibrato Valtat may get closer this time with a different ride. He remains with potential, while Clarcam needs to show big improvement to be competitive. You could pick holes in each of the three better fancied runners here and I feel this might be one for an upset.

If there is a horse that looks potentially capable of causing an upset then it is Cash And Go. He’s been a decent hurdler, finished 3rd in a Grade 3 here at Aintree last season. He improved gradually this season over fences. Unseated his rider on his Chase debut, battled and won well the next time and demolished a small field in a minor race most recently.

He is still learning his game over the bigger obstacles and needs to improve his jumping if he wants to be competitive here. But he is a nice prospect, with more improvement to come and he may well be up to this class. I like to select him as a big price against the better fancied market leaders.

Cash And Go @ 20/1 Bet365 – 5pts win

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3.25 Aintree: Betfred Bowl Chase (Grade 1)

It’ll be interesting to see how much the big guns have still left in the tank after a tough season and Cheltenham in particular. That says I’m surprised how the betting shapes for this race. Holywell looks an exciting prospect, no doubt, and he wasn’t disgraced in the Gold Cup at all. But I feel he is a wrong favourite. And improving sort with loads of potential – yes. But he hasn’t done yet what a Silviniaco Conti has done.

Conti was certainly disappointing at Cheltenham. However this was his only poor performance this season, ignoring his seasonal reappearance. Cheltenham doesn’t suit Conti, but Aintree does. He won this very same race last year, and the fact that he was such an impressive winner of the King George, should give him every right to be the favourite for this race.

The mare Ma Filleule is a consistent individual, always well fancied in the big races with her sex allowance, but she hasn’t been able to get her head in front in her last three races, where she had every chance to do so. She looks just a tick below the very best horses in this field. Don’t underestimate Menorah. On his day he could always spring a surprise. He’s kept fresh and has conditions to suit. But on most occasions he has been beaten by Conti in the past, and that should be the fate here again today.

Silviniaco Conti at 3/1 is a full point too big in my mind. It remains to be seen what damage the Gold Cup has done to him. But he bounced back last year to win this race, so I don’t see a reason why the same shouldn’t happen today again. He’s the class act in the field and I expect a big run with conditions sure to suit.

Silviniaco Conti @ 3/1 Bet365 – 10pts win