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Monday Selections: 19th June 2023

Never Ending Story ran a super race for 2nd place in the Diane. But again, nothing to shout about, I’m afraid. She had absolutely no chance with sensational Blue Rose Cen.

Alligator Alley went off too hard and faded for 3rd. Michael’s Choice ran a shocker, after being punted into 5/2f. Typical, at the moment.

27 down and getting rather too close for comfort to the all-time longest losing streak of 31 from last autumn. I guess, if hitting a rotten spell, then let it be one for the ages.

More often than not selections beat SP, so I’m not too worried. The last 4 month things went only one way; at some point it has to go the other way.

Variance is real, and can be painful. And it happens regularly, I need to remind myself. There were multiple runs of 12-20 consecutive losers this year already, and yet it’s a winning year – so far. The average odds back then were not much different to what I’m backing now. What’s happening right now is, to the most part, random, and down to ‘luck’.

I find it helpful in these dark days to consult my records but also always remember Hugh Taylor’s excellent educational piece many years ago:

Saying that, I would lie if I would say this current run doesn’t weigh on my confidence at least a little bit. A winner would help, sooner rather than later.

……

6.55 Nottingham: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

A handicap for horses winless this year. It looks competitive on the outset, however the pace scenario could compromise the chance of some of the better fancied runners, like Good Luck Fox and Strong Power.

The one I’m fascinated by is Jojo Rabbit, who goes from #1 one and who may enjoy the company of Eeh Bah Gum, who’s also a pace horse and drawn right beside him If these two move ahead, I think it’ll compromise the chances of the higher drawn runners.

Jojo Rabbit showed a clear return to form last time at Ayr. The form hasn’t quite worked out but he ran extremely well from the front for a long time, always under pressure.

He dropped another 2lb, now down to 73, that’s a whopping 12lb below his last winning mark, which was a class success over this course and distance last summer.

Fast ground and minimum trip seem to bring the best out of the gelding and this will be the first time he should find ideal conditions this season. With his lowed mark and possibly good pace scenario he looks dangerous.

Saying that, I made this bet on the basis of an earlier weather forecast which said there wouldn’t be too much rain tomorrow, expect some showed tonight but warm and sunny on Monday. That has changed now: it seems to be coming badly now.

It wouldn’t be the end of the world. Jojo Rabbit has some solid form with some cut in the ground. But it’s far from ideal. My money is down, though, and that’s that.

10pts win – Jojo Rabbit @ 6/1

Wednesday Selections: 14th June 2023

Grim stuff today. I was quietly confident to back a winner, maybe even somewhat hopeful of landing the double, as I thought both Muy Muy Guapo and Revoquable were seriously well-handicapped in their races.

They may have been. Both ran – given the circumstances – not bad races. Although, Revoquable was eased after his big mid-race effort couldn’t make up for the disadvantage he had to overcome after the start. Muy Muy Guapo had too much to do from the back of the field and didn’t get the best of runs either.

It was a risk – and I willingly played the risk, so can’t complain and only wonder whether my judgement was correct – both horses are prone to sluggish starts to their races. So it happened, and that was that for their chances, basically.

This game can throw you off course rapidly. Only Monday a week ago I was still on a great run, having backed seven winners in a fortnight…eight days later, and it’s 17 losers on the bounce. Autsch.

It’s the usual up and down. Even last month, a solid green month, there were sequences of 14 losers and 10 losers. It happens. Over these last days there are perhaps two bets I would like to have back. The others I’d do again in the same situation.

Also many have ran well, but circumstances were against them. I back low-grade horses mostly – small things can change their fortunes dramatically. That’s all part and parcel of the game.

………

7.50 Hamilton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

A hot race, pace wise, that’s for sure. I’m less sure about the depth of this class 4 contest. Not many of these 7 runners appear well-handicapped or open to any unknown improvement.

That could play into the hands of Pearle D’or, who remains lightly raced and somewhat unexposed as a four-year-old.

He caught the eye last week at Yarmouth wearing a hood for the first time. That day he quickly established the lead and clearly enjoyed the front, without showing the signs of keenness he did on his seasonal debut.

He kicked on well over 2f out and broke the hearts of most of his rivals, bar a strong winner who stayed on strongly from off the pace to wear him down inside the last 150 yards.

That was his 2nd start for a new yard after he changed hands for 40k and moved over from ireland.

The last two seasons trained by Dermot Weld, the gelding showed some promise, especially when landing a 6f maiden on his racecourse debut at Naas, when he also achieved a noteworthy 76 speed rating.

Things went downhill from there and he’s probably not quite as good as initially hoped after that debut win. But he’s down a possibly lenient 82 mark right now, and showed a proper sign of form last time out.

Decent ground should suit, he certainly acted on the fast surface at Yarmouth. Hamilton’s stiff finish could suit as well, given he won so well at the equally stiff Naas over this trip.

He also has options to move up in trip on pedigree. This extra bit of stamina, coupled with decent early speed, may be the ideal combination in this race with a hot pace expected up the Hamilton hill to the line.

10pts win – Pearle D’or @ 9/2