Never Ending Story ran a super race for 2nd place in the Diane. But again, nothing to shout about, I’m afraid. She had absolutely no chance with sensational Blue Rose Cen.
Alligator Alley went off too hard and faded for 3rd. Michael’s Choice ran a shocker, after being punted into 5/2f. Typical, at the moment.
27 down and getting rather too close for comfort to the all-time longest losing streak of 31 from last autumn. I guess, if hitting a rotten spell, then let it be one for the ages.
More often than not selections beat SP, so I’m not too worried. The last 4 month things went only one way; at some point it has to go the other way.
Variance is real, and can be painful. And it happens regularly, I need to remind myself. There were multiple runs of 12-20 consecutive losers this year already, and yet it’s a winning year – so far. The average odds back then were not much different to what I’m backing now. What’s happening right now is, to the most part, random, and down to ‘luck’.
I find it helpful in these dark days to consult my records but also always remember Hugh Taylor’s excellent educational piece many years ago:
Saying that, I would lie if I would say this current run doesn’t weigh on my confidence at least a little bit. A winner would help, sooner rather than later.
……
6.55 Nottingham: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
A handicap for horses winless this year. It looks competitive on the outset, however the pace scenario could compromise the chance of some of the better fancied runners, like Good Luck Fox and Strong Power.
The one I’m fascinated by is Jojo Rabbit, who goes from #1 one and who may enjoy the company of Eeh Bah Gum, who’s also a pace horse and drawn right beside him If these two move ahead, I think it’ll compromise the chances of the higher drawn runners.
Jojo Rabbit showed a clear return to form last time at Ayr. The form hasn’t quite worked out but he ran extremely well from the front for a long time, always under pressure.
He dropped another 2lb, now down to 73, that’s a whopping 12lb below his last winning mark, which was a class success over this course and distance last summer.
Fast ground and minimum trip seem to bring the best out of the gelding and this will be the first time he should find ideal conditions this season. With his lowed mark and possibly good pace scenario he looks dangerous.
Saying that, I made this bet on the basis of an earlier weather forecast which said there wouldn’t be too much rain tomorrow, expect some showed tonight but warm and sunny on Monday. That has changed now: it seems to be coming badly now.
It wouldn’t be the end of the world. Jojo Rabbit has some solid form with some cut in the ground. But it’s far from ideal. My money is down, though, and that’s that.
10pts win – Jojo Rabbit @ 6/1