Global Racing

Saturday’s Racing: On The Hunt For Winners

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Newmarket Rowley Mile tight finish

2.20 Sandown: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

Whether some of the more lightly raced individuals can improve to a level that’ll see them going close is debatable, but the very much in-form Jacob Black is sure to have a prime chance once again.

The four year old is getting better with every race, and after getting close in a hot Newmarket Handicap on his seasonal debut, he made all to win here at Sandown a fortnight ago. The winning margin was tight in the end but Jacob Black got a bit lonely in front inside the final furlong and was actually eased down towards the end. He had still a bit in hand.

The Handicapper has given him a chance to prove his class and raised his mark by only 3lb. He may not be able to dictate this bigger field as he did the last time, but he has a good draw and should be in an ideal position when it matters.

Jacob Black @ 6/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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2.45 Navan: Handicap (60-95), 6f

Quick ground is a rarity in Ireland so there isn’t too much fast ground form on offer in this field. However Lily’s Prince is sure to appreciate the underfoot conditions. She has been it pretty good form in recent weeks. A fine success at Cork, followed up with a sixth place in a hot Tipperary sprint.

On paper this last performance doesn’t look inspiring, but the drop to 5f wasn’t suitable and she lost something at the start. She appeared dangerous briefly from 2f out but was found out for speed eventually. This slightly longer trip is what she needs, and with conditions to suit, she may have still a bit to offer from her current mark in an open enough affair.

Lily’s Prince @ 10/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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3.10 York: Ganton Stakes (Listed)

The race evolves around the question whether Wannabe Yours is 100% today and if he’s improved from three to four. Last years form is outstanding and gives him a leading chance no doubt. 3/1 looks tempting I admit, but with these question marks flying around I do opt for the form horse at twice the price.

That’s Lincoln winner Gabrial. Conditions come just right for him today with a bit of rain getting into the ground and his recent 4th in Listed Handicap over course and distance gives him a big chance. That day as top weight he had a really tough task assigned and was just beaten in the closing stages by progressive horses with less weight.

The form works out really well, though and Gabrial should find this here actually a bit easier, given he’s on level weights with his rivals. He is holding his form well and is likely to run his race today – which may be good enough to win.

Gabrial @ 7/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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5.25 Chester: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

I agree with the betting here: Bowson Fred is a very worthy favourite and has plenty in favour. Good draw, form and conditions. But the fact that he has gone close in all his recent starts without winning suggest he is vulnerable nonetheless.

In contrast if you can forgive Snow Cloud his recent poor showing, you’ll see a progressive, talented and improved filly. Ripon’s 6f in softish conditions were just not what she wanted but she showed true class on her seasonal debut at Redcar in quick conditions over 5f.

Travelling strongly, and producing a nice turn of foot, she looked to have loads in hand. Judged on that performance she might be still better than her current mark off 81, although this is a tougher race and Chester from draw five is something of an unknown experience to her. If she handles it, she is sure to be a big runner.

Snow Cloud @ 7/1 Coral – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Ogbourne Downs fancied to defend his crown

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Naas

3.50 Bath: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Quick conditions at Bath, seems to suit most in this small but competitive field. You can see why Hannington is well fancied. Won well lto and only 3lb up seems lenient. A good 7lb claimer on board gives him every chance to run big, given more is likely to come from this lightly raced gelding. This is a much tougher race today, though, against good opposition. So not it’s worth to look for alternatives to take the short priced favourite on.

Drop in trip should suit top weight Stosur. He should run well but isn’t particularly well weighted, given his record. Mister Musicmaster is in top form this year and may have his best ever chance to achieve a career best. Starlit Cantata in contrast may not enjoy the drop in trip, despite good recent form.

Most interesting runner is Ogbourne Downs in my eyes. He won this very same race last year and won again last season at Kempton of his current mark. He started 2015 in very hot Handicaps and this here represents a much easier task. Down to his last winning mark, with a 7lb claimer on board, he should feature prominently and looks overpriced.

Ogbourne Downs @ 5/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Newbury Preview: Ballymacoll Stud Stakes

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Newbury

Bit of a shocker yesterday – neither Bartholomew Fair nor Tamasha could land a blow and finished down the field. While Tamasha looked dangerous for a moment and may needed simply the run, Bartholomew Fair was very keen throughout and didn’t run any sort of a race.

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3.25 Newbury: Ballymacoll Stud Stakes (Fillies’ Listed)

It’s easy to see why Encore L’amour is favourite to land this Listed event. Her creditable runner-up effort behind subsequent Oaks third Lady Of Dubai is the best form on offer. She may well improve from the run and you have to think this looks an ideal opportunity to score for her.

I feel she is opposable on the basis of her short price, though. As she was beaten at Goodwood by quite a margin nonetheless and it’s not unlikely that something else in this race can improve in a way to be a real thread.

I like lightly raced Jasmine Blue. She is better than the bare form of her last run at Newbury. Speedy Boarding is another unexposed sort with potential of dramatic improvement.

However I feel the Irish raider Hot Sauce is overpriced. John Murphy’s inmate is a good looking, big and scopey filly who’s certainly progressive. She won a hot Gowran Park maiden on quick ground – this form works out pretty well. She stepped up into Handicap company and ran a huge race in a competitive field at the Curragh last month. Just beaten in the dying strides in a wild finish by an equally progressive sort who went on to win again subsequently.

She deserves a go at Listed Level and with more improvement to come from here, she must be a major player today, given conditions are going to suit her down to the grounds.

Hot Sauce @11/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Lightly Raced Tamasha Can Improve Big Time

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5.10 Haydock: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 4f

Satellite wasn’t too far beaten in a very tough Handicap at York the last time. He didn’t have the run of the race and can come on for it. Back up in trip, down in grade and dropped 2 pounds he’s a key contender today. That says he’s to raise his game too, given that his only win was a maiden success over a year ago and since then he hasn’t finished in the money.

Revitalized Chancery goes back to 12f and has already shown some fine form this season. He needs to be back to his very best to win off his current mark and I’m not sure if he is really up to it these days. English Summer is on a workable mark without giving the impression to be overly well handicapped. Chance on best form, but not shown anything this year so far.

The race will inevitably evolve around lightly raced filly Tamasha. She was very impressive winning a maiden at Salisbury last year and was clearly not disgraced in a hot Listed event on the Lingfield All-Weather subsequently, when she got a troubled trip due to a wide draw.

As a daughter of Sea The Stars she is likely to improve as a three year old and out of a Group 3 winning Sadler’s Wells mare she is sure to relish middle-distance trips. Race fitness and quick ground are questions marks, but if she can overcome them she is entitled to run a big race of a mark which could easily underestimate her true potential. At 4/1 I’m rather on her than against her in this field.

Tamasha @ 4/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Bartholomew Fair Hard To Oppose in lower grade

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3.10 Haydock: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Stoute’s Pleaidas might be better than what he has shown in two starts this year, but he becomes increasingly a frustrating sort and is one to avoid today. I did like the way Steal The Scene won over 7f the last time. He looks scopey and needed the fist seasonal outing before. But the trip is a worry today. Purple Rock may still improve and back over a mile with a career lowest mark is certainly interesting.

However the top weight Bartholomew Fair is very hard to oppose in my eyes. I missed the good prices but still think he is too big a price in this field. He was found out for class and stamina in the Derby trial at Lingfield the last time on his seasonal reappearance but one would expect him to come on for it.

Drop back to 1m will suit so should the quick ground. This extremely well bred colt won a Yarmouth maiden last year in very taking fashion and wasn’t disgraced in a subsequent Group race where he ran better than the bare result suggests as he was always wide without cover didn’t help and he didn’t handle Newmarket either.
It’s a dramatic drop in class today, he takes on potentially inferior opposition and of a mark off 90 he should have no problems to come on out on top. I liked his athletic looks, he seemed to have improved physically too, and if he can find to anything of the class he showed in his maiden win and to what his pedigree is pointing to, he’ll be hard to beat today.

Bartholomew Fair @ 3/1 Paddy Power – 10pts Win

United Kingdom

Scopey Sirheed’s the type to improve

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Moheet and Frankie Dettori

2.55 Salisbury: Maiden Stakes. 7f

Hard to know what to expect from some individuals in this race,, nonetheless I find it rather easy to narrow the field down to four, five contenders.

I’m most intruded by the Richard Hannon trained Sirheed on his three year old debut, though. He has been gelded over the winter which could help him to be mentally more ready for the job. This Rip Van Winkle son cost a bit of money as a yearling and is pretty well bred, related to a good family.

He looks the type likely to improve with age and should be able to leave his juvenile form easily behind. That says he appeared well framed and scopey last year. I like his performance when last seen at Kempton over 1m. He showed early gate speed, made all and looked the winner entering the final furlong. He tired late and got caught in the final fifty yards.

The drop in trip looks a good thing judged on that effort. There is speed on his dam line and it’s interesting that Dettori makes his way to Salisbury for this one ride only. One would suggest Sirheed is race fit today.

Sirheed @ 5/1 Coral – 5pts Win  

Ireland

Newsletter can score in Ballyogan Stakes

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Newsletter

3.40 Curragh: Ballyogan Stakes (Fillies’ Group 3)

Widen open renewal on paper but I find it rather easy to narrow down the field.

Ger Lyons’ Ainippe heads the betting at the moment. This filly was a Listed winner last year over 5f and seemed to train on well over the winter. She was a close runner-up in a hot Conditions Race at Navan last month behind smart Toscanini – though she had everything going for herself. She received plenty of weight from the favourite and had a very good 10lb apprentice in the saddle too. She certainly will find it tougher here where the weights aren’t favouring her as much as the last time.

Recent Haydock Listed winner Blhadawa improved dramatically for first time cheek-pieces. She drew well clear and her lightly raced profile gives every chance for more improvement. She’s a top chance in this field. However she has to give weight away to some smart three year olds and that becomes increasingly difficult at this time of the year where things swing in favour of the younger horses.

I feel his main danger is going to be Newsletter. This 3yo filly was a smart juvenile, but took her form to a new level this year. She shaped with promise on her seasonal reappearance at Bath over 5f but subsequently enjoyed even more the additional furlong at Nottingham. She won the Listed Kilvington Fillies’ Stakes in fine style, beating some decent opposition. This success came on soft ground but she also done well over much quicker in the past, so the likely good ground at Curragh won’t be an issue at all.

Stormfly ran well in the 1000 Guineas and the respective trial, but the drop to 6f isn’t sure to suit. Same could be said about Iveagh Gardens, who beat Found recently. The drying ground is clearly against her. Hard to fancy either Steip Amach nor Cape Factor on form.

Verdict: Two horses stand out for me: Blhadawa and Newsletter. Both lto winners gave strong impressions. Hard to say who is the better one but the weight may decide in favour of the three year old filly. She gets eight pounds here which is allot, given that she has beaten some decent older horses when last seen.

Newsletter @ 4/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

USA

Preview: Belmont Stakes

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11.50 Belmont: Belmont Stakes (Grade 1)

Pretty clear storyline tonight: American Pharoah wins the Belmont and becomes the first conquer of the Triple Crown in ages. That’s the theory at least, or what the betting is telling us. Well, in fact many experts were making strong cases for this scenario as well. Pharoah’s relaxed attitude, lack of real opposition and so on where all brought up. And rightly so.

It would be massive for our sport if American Pharoah could make it happen – the sport needs superstars. Pharoah already is a star, of course. He won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. But win the Triple Crown and immortality beckons. While he was still heavily challenged in the Derby, he hacked up at sloppy Pimlico – but here’s the all important question: can he show the same class over in the Belmont Stakes, a race which puts an alien like test to him?

Alien like because the 12f trip is a marathon distance for US racing. Something comparable with 2m in Europe. That’s down the nature of US racing. Emphasis is on early speed, unlike in Europe.

Personally I’m wary. I was sceptical before the Preakness, back then voicing concerns about the potential third leg of the Tripe Crown. American Pharoah doesn’t give me the impression to be a stayer. He’s speedy and powerful, but on pedigree you would give him very little chance to go as far as 12f.

Now, he has the right attitude, he really has! And he usually hits the line strongly – so happened in the Derby and the Preakness – plus there is there general perception of the lack of classy opposition in the Belmont Stakes, which many believe there is just nobody who’s capable of beating him.

My view is: that all counts for nothing if he doesn’t stay the trip. It’s that simple. Yes, my heart is with him tonight, all fingers crossed when he enters the home straight. But my money won’t be.

So let’s check out Pharoah’s opposition, shall we? I’m a huge fan of Mike De Kock and South African racing, so I’d love to see Mubtaahij running a mighty race. He swerved the Preakness, which was probably the right decision. But I’ve trouble to see him getting home over this trip. Unfortunately.

Derby fourth Frosted is thought to be the biggest danger to American Pharoah. He also comes here as a fresh horse and seems likely to appreciate the trip. He wasn’t well positioned at Churchill Downs, staying on well from the back. On pedigree he has a fair chance to stay 12f, but it’s not a given either.

Tale Of Vale came from a long way back to finish second in the Preakness, albeit still decisively beaten by Pharoah. Not sure if this performance reflects his true ability. He didn’t really excel in minor races before. So I’m rather cautious – he might not be able to back it up. Though the longer trip may well suit.

Staying on in the Derby was Materiality. A son of Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex, he may appreciated the trip. Whether he is good enough is another question. At least he already is a Grade 1 winner, so can’t be easily discounted. Might be an interesting alternative against the red hot favourite.

However I find Keen Ice more appealing at a much bigger price. He also didn’t go to Pimlico, and is closely matched with Materiality on the Kentucky Derby form, as he finished behind him in 7th. Keen Ice encountered a troubled run, travelling way off the pace. He was hampered and short of room in the closing stages, but finished the race well enough.

He’s a son of Belmont Stakes runner-up Curlin, who can get offspring capable of staying the Belmont trip, like in 2013 with Palace malice – his stock sometimes needs a while to hit best form as well. Keen ice has some fair Belmont form in his dam line too.

That brings me to my final point: the heart is with American Pharoah – if he wins tonight he’s to be considered one of the all-time greats. My head and money is with Keen Ice, though, who seems to have good credentials to appreciate the Belmont trip and who looks still a big price, despite some money pouring in for him.

Keen Ice @ 16/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Pack Leader Can Surprise

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5.15 Epsom: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 4f

A 19 runner strong Handicap – of course it is ultra competitive! That says I do really struggle to see anything obvious and believe this is as open as it gets. A massive upset wouldn’t be a surprise. If I’d have to tip the likeliest winner it’d be Jakey, who has the right credentials to go close.

But there is better value to find in this field: 40/1 long-shot Pack Leader is the one I have my eyes on. Yes, he’s even a long-shot in my book, though probably more like a 20/1 chance. I felt he improved physically from three to four, evident on his seasonal reappearance at Kempton last month. He looked rusty and not very sharp that day, however big and strong, and should come on for the run.

Pack Leader has already form at Epsom, when third here last year. He also proved stamina over 12 furlongs in the past, when runner-up at Salisbury in a Handicap off his current mark. His strike rate is worrying, he won only single race to date – though in fairness that was a very good maiden at Goodwood last June – this form works out really well, indeed!

I can see him able to outrun his price given that track and trip should suit perfectly plus the possibility of improvement from his seasonal debut run.

Pack Leader @ 40/1 StanJames – 5pts Win

South Africa

Clash Of The Titans: G1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge

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fuvleg

The race is on and I couldn’t be more excited. The Group 1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge gives us the mouthwatering clash of South Africa’s heavyweights Legislate VS Futura. The two stars have made it through their preparations and trainer Justin Snaith is happy to let them take each other on.

Snaith, who is in the unique position to train both of them, recently said when talking about this: “I had good horses before. But these are the real deal. They would take on anything in the world – they are THAT good.”

LEGISLATE

Reigning horse of the year, reigning Durban July champ,  Guineas and Daily News winner – he’s done it all in 2014. Heading into the Queen’s Plate back in January, South Africa’s Premier Mile race, he was thought to be virtually unbeatable. Weeks before he stuffed his rivals, including Futura, in the Grade 2 Green Point Stakes, when returning from a deserved break after winning the biggest race of them all, the Durban July.

That’s when the problems started. After Aan unusually dismal performance in the Queen’s Plate it emerged that Legislate suffered from a severe lung infection. That took him out for months to get over it. He also missed his intended return to the track recently, when he injured himself while loading into the stalls.

So, how much ability can Legislate retain? Is he 100% today? According to Justin Snaith, Legislate couldn’t be any better. He’s ready to go, though it’s hard to know whether he’s back to his brilliant best. One the positive side: Legislate looked sensational in his public work, effortless floating over the ground.

What’s more, Legislate usually runs very well as a fresh horse. He always made a successful return – bar the Queens Plate race, where we know he wasn’t right. He’s also unbeaten at Greyville and clearly has the speed and turn of foot for 1.600m as a former Guineas winner.

FUTURA

A hype horse at this time last year. Futura was a massive market mover for the Durban July, South Africa’s most important race. But he wasn’t tested in Grade 1 company yet back then. He looked an emerging star – or a bubble ready to burst – whatever way you wanted to see it. But he proved his class when running out a strong third in the July, with the run of the race clearly against him. He redeemed himself soon after, landing a deserved first success on the highest level.

He hasn’t looked back since then, bar one race: When put into his place by Legislate in the Green Point Stakes. But he subsequently completed the Queen’s Plate & Met double – which is a rare feast! The handicapper reacted, put Futura’s rating up to massive 120 – which means he’s one of the top rated horses in the world now – mind you, 3lb better than Legislate!

Futura had a little break afterwards but was back as strongly as ever when winning a minor race in preparation to the Rising Sun Gold Challenge last month. The general perception is that 1.600m is not an ideal trip for him – 2.000m seems the distance. However his record over 1.600m speaks for itself. 6-4-1-1. Never been out of the money.

BEST OF THE REST

Of course this is not a two-horse-race. Ten more or less well fancied rivals try to land a blow against the two big guns. Ice Machine with Anton Marcus on board is the closest pursuer in the betting. He was an impressive winner of his prep race recently and loves the trip. Not one you want to underestimate but on bare form has has a little to find.

The rest of the field can only hope that the race turns into a muddling affair, which may not quite suit the heavyweights, and as a result they may encounter in-running trouble. There was a shock winner in this very same race twelve month ago, so it’s not quite out of the world. A sprint finish would probably suit Willow Magic most. He ran well in a big Grade 1 sprint recently but stays 1.600m.

VERDICT

I believe a Legislate at his best is the best horse in South Africa – better than Futura too. Before his injury troubles this was the general perception. He was virtually unbeatable, went into the Queen’s Plate a 9/20 chance! Over 1600m he has an advantage against Futura as well. But only if he can find back to his brilliant best.

The race will tell us if the old Legislate is back. Visually he looked superb in his work. He goes well fresh and I give him the benefit of the doubt today. He he’s almost twice as big in the betting as Futura. Convert his odds into a percental chance: 11/4 = 26.6667%.

So if I ask myself: Is Legislate a better chance in this field, if anywhere near his best? Absolutely! I’d nominate Willow Magic as the joker in the race and wouldn’t be surprised if Halve The Deficit can outrun his big price tag – although both shouldn’t be anywhere good enough if things go normal.

2.45 Greyville:
Legislate @ 11/4 Sportingbet – 10pts Win

Horse Racing Around The Globe