Global Racing

Monday Selections: Mass can Rally home

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Naas

2.30 Nottingham: Class 5 Nursery, 1m

Money is floating in for Harlequin Rock and it’s easy to see why. This Rock Of Gibraltar son hasn’t shown anything in three maidens but will be very suited by the step up to 1m on his nursery debut. He gets into this race off a very low opening which may underestimate his potential.

First time gelded, which works well for sons of ROG, he is from a mediocre family, although his dam has produced horses that who have been competitive off mid-60 marks. Here’s a fair chance that Harlequin Rock is underestimated in this field.

Harlequin Rock @ 8/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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3.45 Ripon: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

A couple of these have a big shout but at the given prices veteran Mass Rally makes appeal. He’s slipping down to a realistic mark, in fact hasn’t been racing of such a lowly mark since 2012 when he won the Ayr Silver Cup off 94.

He is still competitive as he proved at York earlier this year. He has to bounce back today after a dismal run at Hamilton, but now down to a mark off 95 as well as dropping in class, he should be very competitive with softish conditions to suit.

Mass Rally @ 8/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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4.25 Naas: Conditions Race, 7f

Not too many make appeal, but Weld’s Katimavik could be well in here. He was an impressive scorer at Fairyhouse over seven furlongs last year, after which his trainer said this lad needs better ground. He was disappointing on his seasonal reappearance but made amends subsequently in a three-runner handicap when hanging tough against a mid-90 rated individual.

On that evidence the drop in trip should suit. Katimavik still had only four career starts and with trip & ground to suit he could be a good ten pounds better than his current rating which would give him a prime chance in this field.

Katimavik @ 5/1 Betfred – 5pts Win  

(Edit: Katimavik is a non-runner)

Global Racing

Piri Wango can land the Ahonoora

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Gordon Lord Byron

3.15 Chester: Queensferry Stakes (Listed), 6f

You can pick holes into any horse here, even the rather shortish favourite. Eastern Impact’s Royal Ascot performance sets obviously a very high standard, but earlier this season he wasn’t capable of winning a listed event. So while the drop in class is significant today, it doesn’t mean he’ll have an easy task.

With the rain falling, I like to give proven soft ground performer Canny Kool a chance here. He tries 6f for the first time and will have raise his game in order to feature. But he should be well suited by the trip on pedigree and may well be able to pull out more. He has a good draw and is usually up with the pace, which always helps at Chester.

Canny Kool @ 12/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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3.50 Chester: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Apostle need to have things fall inch right for him in order to win, as happened exactly one year ago when he landed this very same race. He is down to the very same mark today, hasn’t been disgraced in a very hot handicap lately and therefore should be in with a fine chance here.

The draw isn’t ideal and it appears to be a deep enough race, so chances are that he may not get the all clear run he needs. But despite the quality on offer in the field, not many are well handicapped, unlike Apostle.

Apostle @ 10/1 Bet365 – 5ps Win

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3.20 Galway: Ahonoora Handicap, 7f

A surprisingly lacklustre affair, with a clear lack of quality on offer. Only a handful of horses should be good enough to feature. That makes it easier to narrow down the field. Last years winner Baraweez ran well earlier this week at Festival and must have a prime chance off the same mark today. I can see why Hidden Oasis features prominently in the betting, but the step up in trip is a worry.

Beau Satchel won earlier this week and loves the track, so does old boy Pintura – both make plenty of appeal, but the money is coming in for Ger Lyons’ charge Piri Wango and there is a strong case to be made for him.

He is proven over course and distance, finished runner-up in the Topaz Mile last year and in good form lately. He’s the class act in the field with excellent Group form to his name, but that is also the reason why he has to carry top weight. It’s a tough ask but he performed well under big weights in the past and should love the conditions today.

Seven furlongs is as sharp a trip as he likes it these days, but blinkers and a good draw will clearly help to see him early in position. I believe he has a prime chance to go close today.

Piri Wango @ 7/1 Bet465 – 5pts Win

South Africa

Preview: Champions Cup

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fuvleg

4.05 Greyville: Champions Cup (Grade 1), 1m 1f

Realistically a two horse race, South Africa’s two top drawers meet once again. The score is 3-1 in favour of Legislate. and the one time Futura got the better of him, was in the Queen’s Plate earlier this year when Legislate was not right as we know.

Legislate fought back form his illness, won the Gold Challenge on his return comfortably, beating Legislate in third, for whom it was merely a July prep run, though. Futura ran with loads of credit in the big one subsequently, given the massive weight he had to shoulder. While Legislate surprisingly popped up in one of the hottest sprints of the year where he finished an excellent 3rd.

The trip today should suit both down to the grounds and it will be interesting to see who is the better one. Both are exceptional horses but Legislate always strikes me as the “special one”. He may have a tactical advantage today too, he can make all from the front without a problem and use his superior speed to kick on when it matters.

At the given prices, the value clearly lies with Legislate.

Legislate @ 5/2 Coral – 10pts Win

United Kingdom

Betting: Saturday Selections

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Legatissimo

Been some tough few days but Malabar steered the ship back into the right direction. Her 10/1 win was badly needed but as always in racing, one big winner, and you’re back in the game. Last day of Glorious Goodwood today – hopefully ending it on a high note.

2.35 Goodwood: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 4f

I like the profile of Melodious here. This progressive filly is beautifully bred for 12f and showed excellent improvement this year. She should come into her own with time so may have not shown her best yet. Unlucky to be piped on the line at Newbury the other day, she tries this trip only for the second time and remains on a fairly decent mark.

Melodious @ 12/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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3.10 Goodwood: Nassau Stakes (Group 1), 1m 2f

Burned my fingers in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh when Diamondsandrubies held on to win against Legatissimo. I believe the Wachman filly can turn the table today. She had a tactical disadvantage at the Curragh and is the better filly of the pair.

I was inclined to leave this race as it is, as there are some other good fillies in the field too with French Oaks winner Star Of Seville or English Oaks third Lady of Dubai. But Legatissimo is now available at 5/2, which I didn’t expect and deem as too big.

Legatissimo @ 5/2 Betfred – 10pts Win

Global Racing

Friday Selections: Goodwood & Galway

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Newmarket Rowley Mile tight finish

2.35 Goodwood: Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3)

Bold entry from Mick Channon to send his classy filly Malabar into the race. But then, there are good reasons for it. Goodwood is the place of her biggest triumph, when she landed a Group 3 here last year. Since then she contested at the highest level against top class opposition while performing consistently well. She is however a filly who runs consistently into trouble as well.

She was unlucky in a handful of her starts, most recently in the Irish 1000 Guineas and subsequently the Prix De Diane. She drops markedly in class today and I believe that should make all the difference. She just doesn’t have quite the high cruising speed or change of gear you need at Group 1 level.

But down in Group 3 class, she should be a major player in this wide open race. Visors fitted may help her to stay focused until the race is over as she often travelles well but seem to lack sharpness when it really matters. Negative is De Sousa who just can’t ride Goodwood. But it’s worth the risk as Malabar strikes me as a filly with a massive chance.

Malabar @ 10/1 Sportinbet – 5pts Win

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3.10 Goodwood: Betfred Mile Handicap, 1m

This should be an incredibly close race and I feel Ocean Tempest is very much overlooked. He hasn’t really excelled at Meydan and seemed to feel this tough campaign on his UK comeback in the Lincoln. Back from a break now, he is finally dropped to a realistic mark again in a grade where he belongs.

He has the draw to get into a positive position right from the start here, which should suit. He may not get an easy lead, but tracking it would work too. Off 105 he must certainly enter calculations if back in form, given he won off ten pounds higher last year.

Ocean Tempest @ 33/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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4.20 Goodwood: Nursery, Class 2, 6f

Richard Fahey’s filly Zahrat Narjis makes plenty of appeal here on her Nursery debut. She is very well bred, by a sire who gets often excellent 2 year olds, out of a Group 3 winning dam. She showed promise in all her three maidens and now switched to this company should help her. She could easily be better than her opening mark off 72.

Zahrat Narjis @ 12/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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6.50 Galway: Guinness Handicap, 1m 4f

Dermot Weld’s Show Court went close in this last year when runner-up off a 2lb higher mark. He travelled strongly but maybe hit the front a bit too early. 12f seems his absolute limit stamina wise and the same scenario could very well happen today again – but at 7/1 I’m rather on him, given that he appears to be well handicapped now.

Show Court @ 7/1 Betfed – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Thursday Selections

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Cheltenham Festival

2.35 Goodwood: Qatar Richmond Stakes (Group 2)

Long Island at 6/1 is a huge price in my mind. Forgive him the run at the Curragh which came too soon after a big performance at Royal Ascot. He’s more suited to 6f though and after a bit of rest should be back to his best today. He went into the Royal meeting as the most exciting 2yo and I think it’s too early to give up on him.

Long Island @ 6/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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3.00 Galway Handicap (90-60), 1m

Top weight of ten stone and a wider than ideal draw are tough asks, but lightly raced Champagne Or Water makes plenty of appeal in this field nonetheless. She came out off her seasonal break really well at the Curragh earlier this month when she won a good Handicap in fine style.

She came miles clear with the runner-up and might well be able to pull out more, despite a rise off 9lb in the mark. She is overpriced here.

Champagne Or Water @ 9/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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3.10 Goodwood: Goodwood Cup (Group 2), 2m

I like to think that Pallasator is capable to bounce back today. He’s a really interesting runner – the three year old filly Vive Ma Fille is the one that intrigues me most. She is wonderfully bred, is a full-sister to Group 1 winning Vif Monsieur and she stepped up successfully to Listed class at Royal Ascot last month.

She tried 2m for the first time and attempted to make all. She set a steady pace and was in with a big shout over one furlong out, however hang her chances literally away. Whether this performance is prove enough for her ability to truly stay 2m isn’t clear yet as on pedigree she hasn’t really a right to do so, but it was an encouraging effort in a competitive field.

Today is tougher of course in a better grade against seasoned stayers, and the fact remains that she has won only one single race to date. But she has been very consistent in her form. What I like is thee fact that she receives a truckload of weight from the rest of the field. The Johnston yard is flying too, so there’s plenty to like about her chances.

Vive Ma Fille @ 20/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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4.45 Galway: Galway Hurdle, Handicap, Class 1, 2m

It was Diakali first, the rest nowhere on his seasonal comeback at Tipperary eleven days ago. If this doesn’t come too soon today, it’s hard to look beyond him. This six year old is the class act, still improving and as long as he takes to the track, will take all the beating, despite top weight. I feel 5/1 is rather generous.

Diakali @ 5/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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7.15 Ffos Las: Class 6 Handicap, 10f

I’m sure Kingdom Of Alba is better than what he’s shown in three maidens yet with the yard going strongly, but the same could easily apply to Rebel Yell who makes plenty of appeal on his handicap debut either. He’s pretty well bred and should be very well suited by the step up in trip.

Gelded since his last run will help to focus him more on the task ahead. Usually this works well for Shamardal offspring. This is very winnable race, so with plenty in his favour, he’s a worth a nibble at 10/1.

Rebel Yell @ 10/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

Ireland

Wonder Holy bound to improve

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6.40 Galway: 3yo Handicap, 1m

The trip is a concern for the favourite, although the light weight is a huge advantage for Laganore. I feel the horses higher up the marks facing quite a stiff task and my interest mainly applies to the lower weights.

With Laganore making not much appeal due to a shocking price, the next best choice appears to be Wonder Holy. Of a mark off 79 with a useful 5lb claimer in the saddle, he is an intriguing sort.

He hinted a bit of ability in a maiden at Fairyhouse when he finished strongly coming from an impossible position. He got off the mark the next time at Killarney, when again not favoured by the way the race was ran, but he got there in time.

Today represents a massive step up in class, but I believe there is a good chance he is a bit better than his current rating. He has a good draw today and the ground won’t bother him at all – therefore he seems quite a big price.

Wonder Holy @ 20/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Preview: Gordon Stakes (Group 3)

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2.35 Goodwood: Gordon Stakes (Group 3)

I feel depressed to say it, but I have to oppose Highland Reel firmly. He was the most exciting horse to look forward before the start of the season but he didn’t fulfil the promise he showed as a juvenile. I tend to agree, though, that his Derby performance was too poor to be true and he might be seen in a better light today. Yet he could be vulnerable to some progressive sorts and is not certain to stay thus far anyway.

Medrano is a fair alternative and should run his race, however the drying ground might not be quite what he wants. Disegno would have to take a big step forward to feature, I feel, and he doesn’t look all that likely to do what is required to win.

The two individuals most likely to improve are Scottish and Space Age. Both have improved in recent weeks and deserve a shoot in this company. I struggle to favour one over the other, though. I fancy both and feel they are overpriced. So I go with both.

Scottish is a full-brother to Group 3 winner Royal Empire. He was beaten on his seasonal reappearance by smart Mr Singh but got off the mark subsequently in fine style. Stepped up in trip at Royal Ascot, he was an excellent runner-up behind Space Age but had to delay his run until 2f out at which point Space Age was long gone. He looks clearly on the up.

Space Age’s win at Royal Ascot was freak-like. Overcoming the widest draw, setting a hot pace but held on gamely in the closing stages. He was beaten in 2nd off his revised mark in his next start by a well handicapped individual, but most importantly had to give loads of weight away that day while deploying an aggressive racing style once again.

Both look well up to pattern class in my mind and should run big races with conditions to suit.

Space Age @ 9/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
Scottish @ 8/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win 

Global Racing

Tuesday Selections

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Massinga

After some busy weeks in real life and disappointing results on the racetrack I’m getting back into the mood – Glorious Goodwood and the Galway Festival are surely helping. Some serious racing is on offer today, and I’ll try to enjoy it as much as possible. From a betting perspective I feel the bookies have made some errors:

3.45 Goodwood: Notarised @ 8/1

Naturally this is an ultra-competitive Handicap, but the ground doesn’t play into the hands of many. However it should suit progressive Notarised. He is hard to pass once in front, as shown when winning at Haydock recently where he prevailed in a tough fight. He pulled clear with the second, who’s a good horse in his own right too.

Notarised has won at Goodwood before as well as over 2m. He should have all in his favour, including the possibility to get a soft lead. He has to overcome a career highest mark, but can be able to pull out a bit more once again, particularly with conditions to suit so well today.

> Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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6.15 Galway: Kind Of Magic @ 4/1

The Aiden O’Brien filly should be much shorter here. She was a big eye-catcher on her debut when she ran green and was poorly positioned when the race unfolded. But she finished in impressive style without getting a hard ride. She’ll have learned plenty that day.

Softish ground today should be in her favour as her dam won a Listed race on bottomless ground. She has not much to fear in this field as the Weld favourite doesn’t make any appeal at all at a very skinny price over a trip potentially too short for Simannka. I expect Kind Of Magic to turn the table with Bolger’s Siamsaiocht too.

> 4/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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6.50 Galway: Galway Topaz Mile – Aussie Valentine @ 25/1

Dermot Weld’s runner proves popular for many reasons. Surely the lightly raced Stay The Night is primed and bound for a big run. But in a competitive race like this you have to oppose him at the given prices.

In my mind Aussie Valentine is a huge price given the excellent improvement he has shown in some tough handicaps this season. A bit unlucky in the Lincoln, when runner-up behind an exciting improver, he made no mistake at Leopardstown subsequently. The Alleged Stakes came a bit too soon after those big races and he didn’t show his true form.

Back off a break today should suit him well. He usually runs best when fresh. More rain is expected which is surely in his favour and the trip is perfect too. Obviously the track is an unknown and the draw a concern, but at this price something I can live with.

> Bet365 – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Preview: Pomfret Stakes

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4.00 Pontefract: Pomfret Stakes (Listed), 1m

The boys in blue have a red hot favourite here in Let’s Go. This three year old gelding recently smashed some decent handicappers on only his second ever career start and on that evidence, given the weight for age allowance, he might be hard to beat today.

However it’s completely different – i.e. stronger – opposition as well as a different surface he meets here – we’ll find out how he handles it. Given his skinny price I look elsewhere.

I feel there isn’t much between the others well fancied rivals. Mondialiste can bounce back from a slightly disappointing effort at Royal Ascot. He’s having a strong season nonetheless and his third behind French Navy in Group 3 company sets the standard.

Short Squeeze ran his heart out at Windsor last month; he’ll be competitive today as long as he can overcome the track bias. He usually comes from well off the pace, however Pontefract suits more prominent runners.

Consistent Fire Ship is unbeaten over course and distance and has some creditable performances to his name this year: a fair third behind Top Notch Tonto when last seen, and an excellent 3rd in a hot Leopardstown Group 3. He’s hasn’t won since 2013, though.

Birdman has been a revelation this season. He’s now as highly rated as he has been back in his promising juvenile days. He deserves a shot at this race but I feel this could be too hot for him. The other 3yo in the field, Hail The Hero, will find this a tough assignment her, despite WFA in his favour.

Verdict: Whether the quick ground will hold up with rain falling right now, I’m not sure. But if it goes into the ground it shouldn’t inconvenience too many. However I feel Fire Ship is overpriced in this field. He loves it around this track, won’t mind the rain, and has been in good form. I don’t see why he is twice the price of Mondialiste. There isn’t much between them.

Fire Ship @ 8/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Horse Racing Around The Globe