Category Archives: United Kingdom

Hero’s return in Surrey Stakes

Lexington Times

5.15 Epsom: Surrey Stakes (Listed), 7f

This looks a wide open contest and I find it hard to get warm with the favourite Aces. Clearly a talented individual and open to improvement, but that could easily be said about half of the field.

I’ve decided to go with one my ‘tracker horses’: Hail The Hero. This Former aiden O’Brien inmate cost 500k as a yearling and is extremely well bred. He didn’t quite fulfil the promise of his pedigree yet and remained a maiden in three starts as a juvenile – though he showed talent when close runner-up behind Vert De Grece, who subsequently finished less than a lengths beaten by Gleneagles and ended the season with a Group 1 success in France.

Hail The Hero has changed yards over the winter, is now with David O’Meara. He was excellent on his debut for new connections back in March when he landed a Doncster maiden in impressive fashion. He meat in-running trouble that day but was still able to produce a blistering turn of foot when finally in the clear and won easily.

Upped in class subsequently, he couldn’t land a blow in either the Craven Stakes nor the Guineas. But now dropped in Listed class, he may have a more realistic target. The drop back to 7f should suit as well, so will the ground.

Hail The Hero @ 14/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

Keep faith in Carlo

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2.35 Epsom: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 2f

A Handicap competitive in its nature, though nothing obvious sticks out. Many have to deal with high marks and are tasked with a career best. Fire Fighter could be one who is able to achieve this. He won well at Redcar with a bit in hand when last seen, and under a penalty he is likely to be a big runner.

But it might worth to give What About Carlo another chance. He was progressive last season, won here at Epsom a competitive 10f Handicap and is now only 1lb above this last winning mark.

He’s slipping down to a rating of 95 due to some poor recent efforts. This blip in form comes a bit as a surprise as he finished the Lincoln at Doncaster in eye-catching fashion, over a trip too sharp. He was outpaced but stuck gamely to the task and run out a creditable 4th place.

If What About Carlo can bounce back to form he could take all the beating today I feel given that he is one of only very few in this field who are potentially well handicapped. Conditions should suit down to the grounds.

What About Carlo @ 11/1 Stan James – 5pts Win

The Big Race: Epsom Oaks

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The general perception is that the Oaks are a better race than the Derby this year. And yes, there’s certainly some merit to this. The Oaks field looks absolute delicious -and that’s not only because the brilliant 1000 Guineas winner Legatissimo standing her ground over the much longer Oaks trip. No, it’s the strengths in depth that really intrigues me.

Of course the Wachman filly couldn’t have been more impressive at Newmarket. The drop in trip to 1m didn’t seem to suit beforehand, but it worked absolutely in her favour given the way the race panned out. Racing off the frenetic pace, once she started her big move, she picked them all up one by one, filly after filly, until she was left alone in front.

No doubt, she is a very strong favourite to land the Guineas & Oaks double. The longer trip is rather certain to suit than not, the ground won’t be an issue and she looks a well balanced filly who’s likely to handle Epsom’s undulations.

If you want to find question marks than it has to be the draw. Legatissimo has to start from stall 1 – which would be in any other sport the pole position – but not at Epsom where the record in the Oaks for fillies drawn in one is disastrous. Lucky she is, though, as she has Ryan Moore in the saddle….. there’s some people thinking he’s the best jockey in the world. He may be able to get her out of this dilemma.

Honestly, after making this case for her, I find it hard to oppose her. But I have to. At 3/1 or even shorter I can hardly see any value in the price. It’s a competitive field with strong opposition. Legatissimo is not invincible.

Main danger could be Stoute’s Crystal Zvezda. Lightly raced, she seems to have tons of potential. Her eye-catching success in a Newbury listed race on her seasonal reappearance promises allot. However Epsom is a completely different track compared to what she has seen at flat Newbury. Will this inexperienced filly handle the tough assignment which the Oaks will undoubtedly provide? Maybe. I could be tempted at 4/1, but also believe better value can be found in this field.

Many have been impressed by Jack Naylor’s performance in the Irish 1000 Guineas. So have I. She stayed on from an unfavourable position, trailing the field for most parts of the race, and finished an encouraging fourth in the end. Jack Naylor has a good chance to stay the Oaks trip, albeit it’s a dramatic step up from a mile to 1m 4f. And might the bounce factor kick in? Only 12 days after having a tough race in the Guineas she’s here at Epsom.

Aiden O’Brien is represented with three fillies. Qualify is likely to be deployed as a pacer maker – that’s my best guess. Diamondsandrubies was a very good winner of the Cheshire Oaks. Soft ground may be key to her, so the drying ground seems against her. She also needs to take another massive step forward to win.

Probably the best of the O’Brien trio is Together Forever. A Group 1 winner as a juvenile, after what her trainer said she might be more a Guineas type than one for the Oaks as she shows more speed than expected. Well, here she is in the Oaks, on the back of a very encouraging runner-up effort in the Musidora Stakes over 1m 2f.

The winner had the run of the race from the front that day and Together Forever – albeit making eye-catching progress from four to two furlongs out – appeared to be flat footed once the pace setting filly kicked on. But she kept fighting and stayed on strongly. She almost caught the eventual winner on the line.

On pedigree Together Forever looks certain to stay the Oaks trip, and not only that, she may easily improve for it. I would expect her to come on from her comeback run too. If she handles Epsom, she must rate a very big runner.

Her Musidora form is tied to Star Of Seville, who won the race. A smart filly in her own right, but 10f looks to be her optimum, if not even the limit of her stamina.

That should not be the case for Cummani’s Lady Of Dubai. She impressed at Goodwood in a Listed event and has a very fair chance to get the Oaks trip. Frankie Dettori’s mount Jazzi Top was a good Listed winner last month as well, though stamina is a bit more of a question mark for her.

It is very hard to see either Al Naamah or Bellajeu good enough to land a blow in the Oaks.

Verdict: Legatissimo is likely to be found on any short-list, for obvious reasons – but as mentioned before, she is not a price I’m particularly fond of. Same applies to Crystal Zvezda. I like her and look forward to see her running, but she not a price for me.

Lady Of Dubai is a filly I believe can run a big race and no doubt she is an interesting price. But most intriguing individual is Together Forever. Potentially she has so many things in her favour here. It’s likely that she can improve for her seasonal debut as well as the step up in trip. She’s already a Group 1 winner, so clearly has the class, and has a good draw, which isn’t quite without importance.

Together Forever @ 10/1 Coral – 5pts Win

Quite Smart’s dangerous off featherweight

Wet Dundalk Polytrack

7.50 Chelmsford: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Fair little Handicap with Richard Hannon’s Thahab as the clear favourite. There are good reasons why this lightly raced Dubawi colt is as short as he is. Thahab is the only one with course form in this field – He won a maiden here earlier this year in taking style, albeit against rather poor opposition. He wasn’t disgraced in two subsequent hot sprint Handicaps, but this here is easier today and the step up to 6f will certainly suit.

The likeliest danger is going to be the filly Quite Smart. She has the advantage of bottom weight and is going to make her Handicap debut. She won a 7f Redcar maiden well enough from the front a fortnight ago, despite hanging badly in the closing stages. The drop to 6f must not be an inconvenience today as it should be a fast and furious race with emphasis on stamina in the closing stages.

Mambo Paradise was a fair Wolverhampton maiden winner in April. One could make excuses for her performance at York three weeks ago when she meat in-running trouble on multiple occasions. She deserves another chance but has still to prove that she is up to her current mark. She might be a better prospect than Elis Eliz long term, who was a close runner-up at Wolverhampton behind her but was unable to be competitive off a revised mark subsequently.

Top weight Teruntum Star won a good Class 2 Handicap as a juvenile, though failed to fire on his seasonal reappearance. He may improve for the run but has to overcome a big mark. Mimy Ridge has a second place over CD to his name but looks quite exposed. He’s likely to struggle here, while Frostman was a winner of a poor Bath maiden recently and has to improve a good bit.

Verdict: Favourite Thahab has found a good opportunity to score, but isn’t a price to invest in. A better choice could be the scopey filly Quite Smart. She is a fine looking individual and got off the mark a fortnight ago. With more experience she is supposed to improve. Going into this race with light weight, with an additional 3lb claim by talented Cam Hardie, she should be very dangerous as long as she takes to the surface, which is the key question mark.

Quite Smart @ 11/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Preview: Sandown – Heron Stakes

Newmarket Rowley Mile tight finish

It’s massively exciting to see see Consort finally making his long awaited debut as a three year old. He missed the Guineas, though, and that for a reason. It’ll be interesting to see if he is fully wound up tomorrow as bigger targets may be on the agenda. If this is only a prep race, then others must have a chance to land the spoils.

There are Additional question marks whether Consort has trained on and is able to fulfil the promise. It’s important to keep in mind that so far he is only a maiden winner, albeit an impressive one.

Not quite the same – but to an extend at least – the same applies to Johnny Barnes as well, who makes his belated seasonal reappearance. He was a fine runner-up in a soft ground French Group 1 towards the end of last year. Race fitness and quick ground are obvious question marks.

The Makfi colt Ijmaaly was as impressive a debut winner as you will ever find. Questionable what he beat, but the way he did it was simply breathtaking. Eased down half a furlong out and he still won it by 12 lengths. This here represents a dramatic step up in trip and he is unproven on quick ground. But he’s clearly an exciting prospect.

Much more experienced is stable mate Emirates Skycargo. He has gradually improved and argubly his strongest performance to date came on the 2000 Guineas card at Newmarket in a good Class 2 Handicap when he was extremely unlucky to finish only third in a photo finish. He’d have won with a clear run despite giving loads of weight away to smart rivals.

Proven over trip and ground, he set the standard in this race in my mind. He looks capable of stepping up to Listed level and seems a rather big price in my eyes.

Emirates Skycargo @11/2 Coral – 5pts Win

Preview: Sandown – Brigadier Gerard Stakes

Twilight Son

Godolphin’s exciting Tryster is back on turf after an extremely prolific winter on the All-Weather where he landed the Winter Derby as well as the AW Middle-Distance Championships. Can he be as effective on the grass? We’ll find out soon. He’s to beat some very tough opposition, that’s assured.

Most notably Sir Michael Stoute’s Arab Spring. Progressive last year and successful on his return to the track last month, he took a Group 3 over 12f and is one who’s expected to have a big season ahead. Not sure if the drop in trip to 10f will suit, though. He seemed to need every inch of the 1m 4f trip in the John Porter Stakes.

John Gosden’s Eagle Top was a runway winner of the King Edward VII Stakes last year but subsequently wasn’t in the same mood in the King George. Lightly raced and talented, he remains with loads of potential, but again, the drop in trip seems not to suit. He has never races shorter than 11f in his career.

Western Hymn won the Gordon Richards Stakes over course and distance last month. He beat some really good horses and this form works out well. He may have had race fitness on his side that day but proved that he can cope with a faster than soft surface. He showed guts and class, and seems to have physically improved over the winter.

Tullius was a long way beaten in the very same race and the trip is a big question mark. Niceofyoutotellme shouldn’t be good enough in this class.

Verdict: It may turn out at the end of the season that others have progressed past Western Hymn, but he seems to have found an ideal opportunity to get another Stakes win on the boards here. With race fitness assured, he seems overpriced to my eyes, particularly given that he is a true mile and a quarter horse, which can’t be said about all his rivals.

Western Hymn @ 5/1 Coral – 5pts Win

Tuesday Selections

Leicester Racecourse home straight

2.50 Redcar: Maiden Handicap (Class 6)

Normally this type of race wouldn’t be my cup of coffee. Too much guesswork required who is in it to win and who uses it as a public gallop. This Maiden Handicap is pretty poor, it’s simply the nature of the race. Some lightly raced individuals with low opening marks take dramatic step ups in trip and may well improve for it. Dew Pond is one who jumps out in that regard.

But it is the horse at the head of the weights who clearly is the most intriguing runner. The Cashel Man hasn’t shown allot as a juvenile in Maidens last year. But gelded over the winter, which often works wonders for High Chaparral’s and particularly for trainer David Simcock, he may leave those forms behind, now going handicapping for the first time.

Not only that, but The Cashel Man also takes a dramatic step up in trip, which on pedigree should suit very well and see him improving a good deal. He is a full-brother to decent Handicapper Thunder Pass, who took a similar route last year and improved from maidens to handicaps when stepping up in trip.

An opening mark of 63 is stiff enough for what The Cashel Man has shown so far, but this poor race represents an ideal opportunity to get off the mark with conditions very much to suit him.

The Cashel Man @ 5/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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8.00 Ballinrobe: Beginners Chase. 2m 1f

A rare trip to the jumps for me in the middle of the flat season. The reason is A Sizing Network. A lightly raced five year old who makes his chasing debut today. I have been waiting for this for a while, basically since he got off the mark in a maiden hurdle back in November. A Sizing Network was always going to be a chaser. He jumps big and bold and has the frame to be one.

It didn’t quite work out over hurdles for him, though he performed with credit in two of his three subsequent starts. He got beaten on the line in a handicap hurdle last month at Punchestown, when he made a big move maybe a bit too early and also seemed to idle in front after jumping the last. His only poor showing, leaving the debut out, came at Leopardstown over 2m 4f in soft conditions.

Two miles on good ground seems ideal and I imagine he can leave his hurdling form easily behind over fences. There should be plenty of improvement to come from this fresh, young individual. He has probably a bit to too find with the other market principles on pure form and ratings, but should be easily capable of doing so.

A Sizing Network @ 9/2 Bet365 – 5pts Win

Medrano can outrun the odds in Cocked Hat

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4.00 Goodwood: Cocked Hat Stakes (Listed)

Really hot Listed contest with a very strong favourite: Best Of Times won well on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket earlier this month. They went the first half of the Newmarket Stakes (Listed) pretty quick but BOT stuck to the task. He’s now on a four-timer and unfortunately any value in his odds has diminished. At 6/4 I have to take him on. There is a lot to like about him, but he has to give 3lb away in a competitive field.

John Gosden’s Mr Singh makes obvious appeal. He got off the mark in a strong Newbury maiden over 1m3f and there is a good chance that he can improve big time for the run. Great Glen is still a maiden but made a good impression on his first start this year when staying on for second place at Newmarket. The additional furlong should help today, but it remains to be seen whether he is on the same level as some of the better fancied rivals.

Storm The Stars is a likeable sort. He was always sure to improve as a three year old and his 2nd in the Chester Vase behind Hans Holbein rates a strong piece of form as he came from an unfavourable position. That says he looks a skinny price at 11/4 and I fail to see why Medrano, who finished a fair 3rd in the Vase, is five times the price. Medrano wasn’t favoured by the run of the race either but finished well enough behind Aiden O’Brien’s Derby hopeful.

Obviously Medrano is more exposed than most and had already three starts this year. Albeit a good deal beaten in two of them in France, he finished in the place money behind good horses. It remains to be seen how he handles the better ground, though the trip should suit down to the grounds. There’s every chance that others in this field have the ability to progress to a level beyond him, but these unknown improvements are seemingly reflected in the betting, while he sets a fair actual standard on form. He’s not my ideal idea of a winner here, but he is certainly overpriced.

Medrano @ 20/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

Richard of Yorke Bound For Big Run

Curragh

7.35 Sandown: Class 3 Handicap, 1m2f

This race looks utterly competitive with some really promising sorts going to post. That says I’m not sure if the market has got it right here at all.

Currently trading as favourite is Dubawi son Dartmouth. He made an OK seasonal reappearance over course and distance last month, though it remains to be seen what a 12l beaten 4th behind Jack Hobbs is worth. Maybe not too much in this field I fear. Nonetheless he remains open to improvement and is on a fair mark. It doesn’t inspire me to trough money at him, though.

Godolphin’s Rare Rhythm was a good maiden winner in a decent field at Newmarket when last seen in 2014. He should improve for the step up to 10f but looks vulnerable today given his pretty stiff opening mark. Soluble was a bit unlucky at Salisbury recently, he may be better than the bare result suggests. He isn’t a price to get involved, on the other hand.

I really like the pedigree of Duretto. He’s sure to relish the new trip, however it’s questionable how much he beat when he got off the mark in 1m Kempton maiden back in November. I’m sure he is much better, but given his price and opening mark, I feel others offer better value.

None more than Richard of Yorke. I’m surprised to see him not at the head of the betting. This Oasis Dream son really impressed me on his debut run at Windsor. He was green and had to overcome one or another difficulty throughout the race. Coming from off the pace, not getting the gaps when needed, having to be brave, and yet getting up eventually, beating the eventual runner-up who had the run of the race – that’s is something to do first time out! The second went on to win a maiden by 15 lengths subsequently…

Another one to mention is Istinfaar. One of the long-shots in the field but I feel he could be much better than the 20/1 price tag. I liked the way he won his maiden at Wolverhampton recently, albeit he didn’t beet much. But he looks a scopey sort, lightly raced, with much more to come. He’s sure to relish the step up in trip too. Well bred, out of a 1m 2f Listed winner with Hanagan in the saddle, I can see him able to outrun the odds.

Richard of Yorke @ 5/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win
Istinfaar @ 20/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

Kempton: Exciting Majeed Bound To Progress!

Dundalk All-Weather

Dundalk seems to become a happy hunting ground these days – Cape Wolfe travelled all over the opposition and won it quite easily in the end. A nice 12/1 winner… much needed! The Ger Lyons inmate is Royal Ascot bound now.

7.40 Kempton: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 3f

The flat season is in full flight, yet we have some really interesting racing on Kempton’s All-Weather tonight. This intriguing Class 3 Handicap for four year olds and older horses appears to be an open enough contest with seven out of the ten runners having previously won at this venue.

The betting suggests Andre Balding’s lightly raced Smiling Stranger is the one to beat and won’t lack fitness after 291 days off the track. He showed some promise in maidens last year, though was found out for class on his handicap debut. Gelded over the winter, he could be one with plenty of improvement to come, given a fair handicap mark. Personally I wouldn’t like to be on him at 5/2 though. Despite all the positives there are also a couple of question marks and such a short price doesn’t represent value in my eyes.

Equally lightly raced Majeed didn’t show any rustiness to land a Chelmsford Handicap in March coming off a 1½ year long break. The five year old had obvious problems in the past but looked big and strong at Chelmsford. He travelled off the pace and had plenty enough to do 2f out but really motored home in impressive style. Only 3lb up, with a very useful 5lb claimer in the saddle today, he looks a major player with further improvement likely to come off a potentially lenient mark.

From the former course winners, Double Discount can’t be ruled out. He’s weighted to be competitive if he is back to his best. Jacob Cats won a CD Handicap in March and on that form must rate a danger. The Gay Cavalier loves it around Kempton and should be a big runner if he can bounce back from his last poor run. All-Weather specialist Troopingthecolour is rated below his last winning mark but has to find back some form. First time cheek-pieces may help him. All of these have plenty of questions to answer, though.

Verdict: I like the favourite’s profile. If Smiling Stranger is fit after the break, he could be hard to beat off a fair mark now as a gelding. But from a value perspective lightly raced Majeed makes more appeal. He’s also on a very fair mark and has the assistance of a very good apprentice, which effectively sees him racing off 2lb lower than when winning at Chelmsford. I was really impressed with that performance and 9/2 looks a big price in this field.

Majeed @ 9/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win