Medrano can outrun the odds in Cocked Hat


4.00 Goodwood: Cocked Hat Stakes (Listed)

Really hot Listed contest with a very strong favourite: Best Of Times won well on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket earlier this month. They went the first half of the Newmarket Stakes (Listed) pretty quick but BOT stuck to the task. He’s now on a four-timer and unfortunately any value in his odds has diminished. At 6/4 I have to take him on. There is a lot to like about him, but he has to give 3lb away in a competitive field.

John Gosden’s Mr Singh makes obvious appeal. He got off the mark in a strong Newbury maiden over 1m3f and there is a good chance that he can improve big time for the run. Great Glen is still a maiden but made a good impression on his first start this year when staying on for second place at Newmarket. The additional furlong should help today, but it remains to be seen whether he is on the same level as some of the better fancied rivals.

Storm The Stars is a likeable sort. He was always sure to improve as a three year old and his 2nd in the Chester Vase behind Hans Holbein rates a strong piece of form as he came from an unfavourable position. That says he looks a skinny price at 11/4 and I fail to see why Medrano, who finished a fair 3rd in the Vase, is five times the price. Medrano wasn’t favoured by the run of the race either but finished well enough behind Aiden O’Brien’s Derby hopeful.

Obviously Medrano is more exposed than most and had already three starts this year. Albeit a good deal beaten in two of them in France, he finished in the place money behind good horses. It remains to be seen how he handles the better ground, though the trip should suit down to the grounds. There’s every chance that others in this field have the ability to progress to a level beyond him, but these unknown improvements are seemingly reflected in the betting, while he sets a fair actual standard on form. He’s not my ideal idea of a winner here, but he is certainly overpriced.

Medrano @ 20/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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