All posts by Florian Christoph

Photographer & Runner - lives in the land of rain.
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Preview: Monet’s Garden Old Roan Chase

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Aintree Racecourse

A hugely competitive renewal of this Grade 2 race, certainly a tougher contest than the one Wishful Thinking won last year. The 12 year old has a difficult task on hand to try and defend his crown. Because he is down to last years handicap mark he is not completely out of it, but others make certainly more appeal.

Jonjo O’Neill’s Johns Spirit is one of those well fancied runners. He’s done remarkably well as a fresh horse in the last number of years, so a bold bid is expected. A career best is required, but this progressive chaser has a good chance to go close judged on his fair effort in the Grade 1 Melling Chase when last seen at this very same venue.

Rajdhani Express has won here at Aintree over the Grand National fences on his final start last season. He is competitive on that particular form obviously, although his win record isn’t all that impressive and a big mark makes life not easy today against excellent opposition.

Always improving over the last two seasons has been Paul Nicholls’ charge Sound Investment. The seven year old won four of his ten starts over fences and was placed in three more of those. He rounded up last season with an excellent Grade 3 success at Newbury and connections will hope for further progress this year.

He already has a prep run under his belt – he run okay in a competitive Grade 3 hurdle a fortnight ago and was lucky not to exit the race after the first when his young jockey almost fell off. He’s expected to come on for the run and that should put him right into the mix here of a good mark.

Another rather lightly raced sort over fences is Buywise, who already has a Grade 2 success to his name. Last season he only won over hurdles, although he was competitive in strong races, mostly around Cheltenham. He’s on a competitive mark but will need to prove that he can act on this flat speed track as well.

Duke Of Navan is an interesting contender. So far mostly tested over two miles, he will step up in trip and we find out whether his stamina holds up. If he stays the distance he’ll be right there when it matters I suspect.

It’s hard to trust Splash Of Ginge these day but on best form he can be in the mix. The Irish bring over Lord Ben. A versatile chaser, who was not disgraced when last seen at Listowel behind a good Gigginstown winner, although more is required here.

You can’t fully rule out Brave Spartacus who has fitness on his side. He’s already a Listed Chase winner and could improve again. It’s harder to make a case for Surf An Turf and also Le Bacardy, as those two will have to prove their worthiness in this competitive field.

Summary: This is an excellent renewal: competitive and close to call. Price wise I feel Sound Investment makes the most appeal though. He’s expected to be fit and is a progressive sort, probably not at the end of the road yet in terms of improvement and should love the conditions here. His mark gives him every chance and connections had this race in mind for a long time.

Sound Investment @ 9/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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Newbury Preview: St Simon Stakes

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Newbury

2.25 Newbury: St Simon Stakes (Group 3), 1m 4f

Hard to put much face into any of the nine horses – although Romsdal, judged on his placed efforts, would be an obvious pick. But his strike rate is poor, and the fact that he only won on the Kempton All-Weather and never really excelled in similar races like this today means he is one to oppose.

Favourite filly Koora is a likeable, lightly raced sort with room for further improvement. But given what she has done so far it’s impossible to see any value in her 5/2 price tag.

I like Rawaki from the older horses. He has a profile to do well here, if in the right mood. You definitely can’t rule out progressive three year old filly Melodious either, though she has to prove that she can win on this level over a trip that far.

The most intriguing contender, and clearly the one with the most scope for improvement, is three times raced Moderah. She comes into this race as a relatively fresh individual, having only two starts this season. She made a big impression when getting off the mark last month in a Leicester maiden. Travelling all over her modest rivals, finding plenty when given a tiny bit of reign in the final furlong.

Obviously she has it all to prove, stepping up dramatically in trip. But with the fair chance of improvement this seemingly talented individual makes loads of appeal to me. In the context of the race I believe she is too big a price.

Moderah @ 6/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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Saturday Betting: Cheltenham

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Nice drift for Dark Spirit today, who won nicely at 11/1 in the end, storming up the hill for her inexperienced rider in the saddle. A relieve, a nice, big winner – finally again! It didn’t continue that way. Drumlee Sunset finished only 2nd. He was beaten for speed in the end.

2.10 Cheltenham: Class 2 Handicap Chase, 2m

Question marks surrounding most of this field, but I do really like Going Concern for the in-form Evan Williams yard. a progressive sort last season over fences, he has won three of his last six starts. He has to defy a career highest mark and was disappointing when last seen in April, but has done well off a break in the past.

Conditions should suit down to the grounds, with the rain expected over Cheltenham tomorrow not having to be an inconvenience

Going Concern @ 11/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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4.30 Cheltenham: Class 2 Novice Chase, 2m 4f

I was initially very much drawn towards Parlour Games. The classy Novice hurdler left a lasting impression but whether this flat bred gelding can take to chasing is very much up in the air. Also I had the perception that he is best on a flat track and that Cheltenham doesn’t quite suit.

As the value alternative I really like Double Shuffle though. Bred to be a chaser, he is still lightly raced, was progressive last year, has form in an Irish point to point and will love the trip. He has only won at flat tracks yet, so Cheltenham is very much an unknown. But with the low weight he makes appeal.

Double Shuffle @ 12/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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Friday Betting: Cheltenham Selections

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The Festival

3.20 Cheltenham: Class 2 Hurdle, 3m

I missed the big prices for Dark Spirit but still feel the current odds represent some fair value in this field for a mare that likes the track, the ground and has won over this sort of trip in the past. Her record fresh is fine and the drop back into handicaps will suit.

She wasn’t disgraced in much better races towards the end last year, however clearly found out for class there. She remains a progressive mare nonetheless and is on fair mark. The help of a decent 10lb claimer is a bonus though, given that the yard is going strongly in recent weeks too.

Dark Spirit @ 6/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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4.30 Cheltenham: Maiden Hurdle, 2m

Drumlee Sunset is a very exciting prospect. Connections paid some good money for him at the sales after he won a pretty good point to point in Ireland. He justified optimism when landing an Exeter NHF in February.

He should be ready to go and instead while the quick ground in combination with the minimum distance is a slight concern, I would expect him to have too much on the plate for his rivals here. Connections could have targeted a better race to start off but want to give him an “easy” race to start the campaign off, building from here on.

Drumlee Sunset @ 11/8 Coral – 10pts Win

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Tuesday Selections

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2.20 Windsor: Class 5 Nursery, 6f

Recently gelded and with first time cheek-pieces I feel Another Boy deserves another chance. He drops in class as well has been given a chance by the handicapper after a couple of decent, albeit far from exciting performances. He third placed effort in a three runner race lto doesn’t look exciting at all. though it came against two pretty decent rivals and the form looks good. The race wasn’t run to suit him, yet he stayed on to be beaten only two lengths after all.

A return to a bigger field should help. And if the gelding op and headgear have any sort of positive effect, he should go close today – although the draw isn’t the kindest. He seems a bit overpriced nonetheless.

Another Boy @ 12/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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8.40 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 1f 103y

Horrible race with not much recent form on offer. However Vastly makes plenty of appeal here, dropping in class and stepping up in trip after two very respectable efforts on the All-Weather over 1m. The gelding didn’t appear to like Chelmsford lto and was badly outpaced, though was game and genuine in the closing stages in a race that looks not too shabby on paper in terms of how the form has worked out since.

Vastly has won over course and distance in the past, albeit pre-tapeta times. He’s done that in February 2014 of a mark off 68, had since then only four more starts, the last two respectable, as mentioned. He’s 6lb lower rated at the moment, so that gives him an excellent chance in this field to find back to form.

A decent 3b claimer has been booked for the ride, which adds to the arguments pro Vastly here. If he can only improve slightly for the last two outings and the trip, he’s gonna go very close.

Vastly @ 9/2 William Hill – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Big Race Preview: Canadian International

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Second Step

No surprise to see the Europeans dominating the betting for Canada’s major Group 1 on turf. Sir Michael Stoute brings over fast ground loving Cannock Chase who seems to hit top form at the right time of the year. He’ll love this track, fast ground and the trip plus first time Lasix administered will give him the edge – he’s the right favourite….

….. but at the same time a very skinny price given thathe hasn’t fulfilled the promise this season yet. While in good form at the moment, no doubt, it is a big step up from winning at Listed race to go on to win at the highest level. While I have him down as the likeliest winner nonetheless, I can’t trust him betting wise.

On ratings and form Luca Cumani’s Second Step is the biggest danger, if not the horse to beat. A Group 1 winner in Germany this season, he found the Ledger trip in Ireland a bit too far subsequently but should be more home in this race today. Questions marks arise over his racing style. He’s a hold-up horse and it can be difficult to come from the back the field here, particularly on fast ground. No Lasix is a disadvantage too.

Sheikhzayedroad has won a Grade 1 at this venue last season. From a good draw he can’t be discounted today either, though he hasn’t shown anything this year to believe he is in the same sort of form. He’s no price to be overly excited about either.

What’s the home opposition like? Modest. And that puts everything said about the Europeans into context. Whether they have the right form on European standards does matter little, given that most US rivals in this field aren’t quite up to standard here.

Although two contenders stand out: that is formerly Australia trained Habibi. He made some big progress in recent weeks, landing a Stakes race here at Woodbine in August and following up with a big runner-up effort in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer Turf Stakes. He came from the back off the field that day and with a slightly clearer run my have finished even closer than the final 1/2 lengths margin behind Interpol.

This Interpol is here today too, and in my mind is by far the most intriguing contender, even more so given his rather enormous price tag. He’s a late bloomer but really has hit the ground running in recent months. He caused a huge upset in the Grade 2 Sky Classic over 10f here at Woodbine, but proved this wasn’t a fluke when following up with a gutsy win in the Northern Dancer.

This four year old English Channel colt looks a very genuine, tough sort, who battles hart once in front. He always held the charge of Habibi last month, despite being in front for the whole long Woodbine home stretch. He usually races more up with the pace, which should be an advantage today on fast ground. Question mark is whether he can overcome his wider than ideal draw.

If he can, and the past has proven he has gate speed, he’ll be right up there when it matters. Whether he is good enough against the Europeans remains to be seen. But he’s a huge price and by no means deserves to be four times the price of favourite Cannock Chase.

Interpol @ 12/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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Kempton: Maputo A Rock Solid Favourite

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3.20 Kempton: Novices’ Hurdle (Listed), 2m

Maputo looks rock solid favourite and very hard to beat if he progresses as he promised in all his start over hurdles so far. A Group 3 winner on the flat and Group 2 placed as well, he has taken well to this discipline. Three starts, three wins, and a very impressive performance two weeks ago at Huntingdon brings him along nicely.

He didn’t win by much but was hardly off the bridle that day – the runner-up won a decent race subsequently by a country mile – so it’s fair to assume Maputo is potentially well up to Grade 3 level.

Swansea Mile is an interesting alternative. He wasn’t quite lucky on his debut run at Market Rasen. I feel he may have not the speed required over flat 2m on quick ground though. Returning Midnhight Shot hasn’t been anything of note so far but is open to improvement.

I believe Maputo is a clear favourite hear and should be odds-on. Coral’s evens looks out of place.

Maputo @ EVS Coral – 10pts Win

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Wolverhampton: Amazing Blue Sky Can Make All

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20.45 Wolverhampton: Handicap (Class 6), 1m 4f

There is not much depth in this race and that is the reason why San Quentin is such a short favourite. He certainly has the form to land this but has to overcome a career highest mark. He may well do so, as the only other real danger seems to be A Little Bit Dusty, who has form over course and distance.

But what is very much evident in this race: lack of pace. That brings notorious front-runner Amazing Blue Sky into the equation. The 12f trip is his absolut stamina limit, so one has to hope that no surprise comes out and presses for the lead – on paper ABS should have it all to himself and that can often be n advantage at Wolverhampton.

The veteran hasn’t too much in the form book at the moment and the yard is not in any sort of form. It’s a speculative pick, based on the facts of Amazing Blue Sky finding here the perfect conditions today, which means he can be competitive if he’s on a good day.

Amazing Blue Sky @ 16/1 Coral – 5pts Win 

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Selections for British Champions Day

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Territories

1.55 Ascot: British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1)

I’m a big fan of lightly raced Sea Calisi who seems to have the right traits to land this Group 1. She has been progressive all year, making the transition from Group 3 to the highest level seamingless. A Group 2 winner in her native France in June, followed an impressive performance in the Yorkshire Oaks where she was unlucky not finish closer than her third place, one and a half lengths beaten by Pleascach.

Sea Calisi was a long-shot in the Arc Trial Prix Vermeille last month, but ran a big race when third behind Treve – who that day, was from another planet.

There is every reason to believe that this likeable three year old filly can still improve – I certainly believe a big victory is due! Her high cruising speed will allow her to make the progress from the back of the field from 4f out where it’s usually the crucial point for those held up.

Sea Calisi @ 13/2 Betfred – 5pts Win

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2.30 Ascot; Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)

Still unclear what the situation is with Gleneagles. The ground is against him, so much is sure. Sollow in contrast is certain to run and will appreciate the underfoot conditions. On form he’s very hard to beat here. But Territories is an interesting alternative. The three year old with the weight advantage, has very strong form and should love the trip on slightly easy ground.

3.05 Ascot: Champion Stakes (Group 1)

Difficult race. I believe Jack Hobbs is not as much a clear favourite as the odds say, for the reason of his poor draw and the ground not really what he wants.

However from the older horses Fascinating Rock is a fascinating contender. He’ll love the ground and the trip, has been in excellent form this season and proved his class at this level – he should be right there when it matters.

Both Territories and Fascinating Rock have good chances to go close and be placed at least. They offer some “each-way-value” combined as a double.

Territories+Fascinating Rock @ 164/1 Paddy Power – 2.5pts E/W

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Kempton: Cascading potentially well in

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Wet Dundalk Polytrack

8.15 Kempton: Fillies Handicap (Class 4), 7f

Milady could be too good if she stays the trip, which isn’t unlikely, but given the prices I feel fellow three year old Cascading is better value. She has been in excellent form in recent weeks, without getting her head in front. When last seen here at this scene, albeit over 1m, she looked the winner one furlong out, just to get a bit tired and get beaten by a shoulder eventually.

I’m not 100% whether she really has the speed required to win over 7f, but it is worth dropping back and try as despite a revised mark, she could still be well in, particularly in a race like this today, where most appear exposed.

Cascading can race as the bottom weight, and it should help going head to head with her own sex this time too. From a good draw, she should be in the perfect spot when it matters and it’d be disappointing if she isn’t in the money at least, given she finished only once in seven starts on the AW outside the placings.

Cascading @ 13/2 Bet365 – 5pts Win