6.20 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
I might rue my decision in the end, because I strongly feel that Consequences is most likely a well-handicapped individual. He’s ran to higher topspeed than his current mark, he did so, in fact, when last seen at Chelmsford when nothing more could have gone wrong for him. Untouched by the handicapper, he has a massive chance if things fall right for him.
However, he is an individual who seems to draw misfortune. Hence at prices I go with the other I fancy nearly as strongly, who also appears to be potentially “well in”: Tathmeen.
Whether 6 furlongs is truly his trip is still kind of a question to be answered. Given he is 1 from 8 over the trip (the one win is incredibly poor form) and has won more races over the minimum trip. But on the other hand his career best speed ratings came over 6 furlongs.
Down to a mark of 72 now, Tathmeen has ran to TS 76 on the AW and 79 on turf in the past. A career best on the All-Weather was achieved back in February at this track, albeit over 5 furlongs, when he ran out a strong victory, form that is highly credible and he did so of his current 72 OR.
Fine 3 lb claimer William Cox is on board. With a few horses already out, the draw that looked pretty bad initially doesn’t look quite as challenging any more.
10pts win – Tathmeen @ 11/1 MB