Tag Archives: Pontefract

Betting

Sunday Selections – 20th August 2017

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2000 Guineas Field going to post

Brilliant Saturday, two winners from five selections paid off handsomely! Impressive 7/1 Ripon winner Sole Mission was the highlight, but Alfarris drifting out to 4/1 and still landing the hot 4.45 Handicap at Doncaster was also quite enjoyable to watch. It’s been really a super week! Hopefully it can be concluded with a final winner today!

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4.35 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Eagle Creek has to be trusted to have fully recovered from his injury that led to a dismal performance at Newmarket and it remains unclear how good he really is. A mark of 95 could still underestimate him but for what we know about him at this point in time looks plenty stiff enough.

A smarter choice given prices is Lomu in my book. Unbeaten on turf and the one time beaten in his four career starts on the AW he still ran well in quite a hot race.

He is improving all the time, won cosily at Ayr when seen last – a performance better than the bare form suggests. He was extremely keen early on, didn’t have quite a clear passage in the home straight and still won going away.

Stepping up in trip to 1m is not a concern on pedigree. He’s certainly every chance to get it, no doubt. I’m more concerned about his keenness. He may have run his race before it really starts. Also his hold-up style at track that favours strong front-runners with the main rival being one of those potentially is dangerous.

Nonetheless it is worth a crack as Lomu appears to be open to any amount of improvement tackling the new trip. He gets a bit more mature as well as hopefully with experience settles better.

Selection:
10pts win – Lomu @ 11/4 Bet365

Racing Talk

Sunday’s Racing Talk

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Mondialiste won the Arlington Millionen – what a job by David O’Meara yet again, giving this horse every chance to score at the highest level. This trainer knows how to get the most out of his stock!

Mondialiste would certainly not be able to win a Group 1 in the UK or Ireland, but against slightly lesser opposition, he took full advantage of conditions to suit him down to the grounds at Chicago last night.

Sure, the lasix treatment helps – let’s not be fooled, it’s not only the good hay and sunny air in North America that sees this horse improve so dramatically.

On his three visits to the US, Mondialiste now won two major Grade 1’s and was a fast finishing runner-up behind Tepin in another one.

That could be surprising, but given lasix as race day medication is clearly performance enhancing, with quite often dramatically positive effects on European trained horses, it’s actually not a surprise.

But take nothing away from trainer and horse  – the rules are there for everyone and David O’Meara plays within them. So well done!

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2.55 Deauville: Prix Jacques Le Marois (Group 1)

What a race in prospect! Several classy milers go to post at Deauville this afternoon and that makes it hard to pick a winner.

2000 Guineas hero Galileo Gold is the 7/4 favourite and has the form in the book to have a big say once again, though the has been on the go for a while now and this might be one race too many.

He meets Godolphin’s Ribchester again, who was a strong finishing third, only a shoulder behind Galileo Gold, in the Sussex Stakes last month. Ribchester is rapidly improving and a first top level success looms large.

Last years winner Esoterique has had a quiet year so far, though a recent fourth in the Prix Rothschild promises an upward form curve.

Vadamos already scored twice in Group company this year and rates a big danger – whether he is quite up to Group 1 standard remains to be seen. However he beat Ervedeya on her seasonal debut back in May.

These two go head to head here today – Vadamos with better recent form. Ervedeya, a three times Group 1 winner, seemed to need the run on reappearance but was a surprising no-show in the Queen Anne Stakes. She has to be back to her best to feature today.

That says I keep faith with her. She’s a brilliant filly on her day and if she can improve from those last two runs she must have a proper chances of beating the boys here.

Selection: Ervedeya @ 8/1 Ladbrokes

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2.15 Pontefract: Sky Gypsy @ 12/1 Coral: Sire Dandy Man with 100 place strike race with two years olds as this odd track, from a limited sample size, yet seemingly significant enough to have a punt.

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Friday Bet – Keep In Line Can Go Close

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Twilight Son

3.45 Ascot: Class 3 handicap, 1m 4f

Tight and competitive field, with plenty of horses in with a chance to go close. But I believe Godolphin’s three year old colt Keep In Line is overpriced.

He has still not too much mileage on the clock and room for further improvement. It probably is fair to draw a line through his most recent run at Pontefract, where had to overcome a wide draw, was keen early on, and travelled always wide. He made a big move turning for home five wide but eventually didn’t handle the undulations of the Pontefract home straight at all.

He can race off the same mark again here, which is 4lb higher than his last win which came on his penultimate start at Windsor in softish conditions. So he shouldn’t mind the testing conditions at Ascot. He won with a bit in hand that day, therefore I believe it’s fair to give him another chance now, given that the draw is much kinder and the conditions very much likely to suit.

Keep In Line @ 8/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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Sunday Selections: Pontefract

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Gordon Lord Byron

What surprising feeling last night – 2 winners! Well, they are more consolation than anything else but nonetheless it’s always good to get some winners on the board. Hopefully a sign for better things to come? There is a great card at Pontefract, so let’s find some winners.

2.45 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 4f

Couple of interesting sorts in this competitive race. Favourite Almodovar makes appeal given that he is sure to appreciate the step up in trip when attempting to win three on the bounce. He may well defy his new mark here but is a very short prices considering the depth of the field.

Fellow “I’m on a hat-trick” More Mischief is an interesting alternative from the bottom of the weights. She looks a grinder and could appreciate the uphill finish. Her wide draw is a slight concern as well as it seems that she may need a bit of cut in the ground to be seen at her best, particularly stepping up in grade now.

The other three year old in the race, Keep In Line, is the most intriguing contender. He’s certainly very well bred and a full-brother to smart Kassiano. He won at Windsor the other day a shade cosily, and the 4lb rise for that effort could easily underestimate him. He has plenty of stamina but seems also speedy, so whatever way the race evolves, he should be equipped.

The wide draw is a concern though. However there aren’t too many in the race who’re likely to storm off to the front, so he may be able to overcome this. He has a very capable 3lb claimer in the saddle too. This horse is certainly overpriced.

Keep In Line @ 7/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

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3.45 Pontefract: Flying Fillies’ Stakes (Listed), 6f

Eddie Lynam won’t bring his classy filly Byzantium over for a nice day out. She has top credentials to win this Listed contast in fact. The three year old was desperately unlucky not to get up on the line in a hot little race at Laas the last time. Conditions will suit today perfectly, as she has a good draw and should appreciate the stiff uphill finish.

Byzantium @ 9/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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4.20 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 

Ultra competitive little Handicap – each and everyone of the six runners has legitimate claims. Therefore I feel La Dorotea is overpriced here given that she wasn’t disgraced in a really hot race at Chester the last time where she had to overcome a wide draw. She was highly tried in Listed class before which was beyond her, when following on from a good course and distance success here at Ponti. She’s only 2lb higher today but has an excellent 3lb claimer in the saddle.

La Dorotea @ 10/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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5.20 Pontefract: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Be Lucky is impossible to oppose here given she is 2/2 over coure and distance and only 3lb above her last winning mark. She has the pole position draw and the speed to move forward from there. A bold bid is expected and if she is in the same mood as the last time she was here, she’s very hard to beat.

Be Lucky @ 9/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Preview: Pomfret Stakes

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4.00 Pontefract: Pomfret Stakes (Listed), 1m

The boys in blue have a red hot favourite here in Let’s Go. This three year old gelding recently smashed some decent handicappers on only his second ever career start and on that evidence, given the weight for age allowance, he might be hard to beat today.

However it’s completely different – i.e. stronger – opposition as well as a different surface he meets here – we’ll find out how he handles it. Given his skinny price I look elsewhere.

I feel there isn’t much between the others well fancied rivals. Mondialiste can bounce back from a slightly disappointing effort at Royal Ascot. He’s having a strong season nonetheless and his third behind French Navy in Group 3 company sets the standard.

Short Squeeze ran his heart out at Windsor last month; he’ll be competitive today as long as he can overcome the track bias. He usually comes from well off the pace, however Pontefract suits more prominent runners.

Consistent Fire Ship is unbeaten over course and distance and has some creditable performances to his name this year: a fair third behind Top Notch Tonto when last seen, and an excellent 3rd in a hot Leopardstown Group 3. He’s hasn’t won since 2013, though.

Birdman has been a revelation this season. He’s now as highly rated as he has been back in his promising juvenile days. He deserves a shot at this race but I feel this could be too hot for him. The other 3yo in the field, Hail The Hero, will find this a tough assignment her, despite WFA in his favour.

Verdict: Whether the quick ground will hold up with rain falling right now, I’m not sure. But if it goes into the ground it shouldn’t inconvenience too many. However I feel Fire Ship is overpriced in this field. He loves it around this track, won’t mind the rain, and has been in good form. I don’t see why he is twice the price of Mondialiste. There isn’t much between them.

Fire Ship @ 8/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Merry Me Can Upset in Pipalong Stakes

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3.10 Pontefract: Pipalong Stakes (Fillies’ Listed), 1m

Favourite Temptress should be hard to beat given her brilliant run at Royal Ascot when she followed up on an ultra impressive performance on her seasonal debut. However her draw and running style are a slight negative at this track, so she might be vulnerable to someone who gets first run.

I feel this could be Merry Me. The filly seems on the upward with age. She left a poor season opener behind with a massive run in a Handicap at Epsom. She travelled strongly chasing the pace, didn’t seem to be impacted by a bit of a rough ride in the home straight and went clear inside the final furlong, just to get a bit tired or idle in the dying strides when eventual winner Gratzie came out of nowhere to get up on the line.

Merry Me didn’t have time to respond to this challenge and gave a good deal of weight away to the winner as well. The slight drop to 1m should suit perfectly today though as well as track and ground.

Merry Me @ 6/1 Coral – 5pts Win