3.10 Carlisle: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
Straits Of Moyle looks to have found a great opportunity to return to the winning ways. He ran extremely well a fortnight ago when third in a hot contest at Thirsk.
That day he was right up with the pretty hot pace, always racing in prominent position. Was going notably well 2f out and found plenty for pressure. Only went down late behind two well handicapped horses and the winner came from off the pace.
This should be quite strong form. He’s clearly in good nick. He also ran a career best speed rating on All-Weather earlier this year, although is much better on turf.
Off his 72 mark he seems quite well handicapped as he was left untouched by the handicapper after that recent run.
He ran to 74+ speed ratings twice in his career, including a career-best 79 last summer. Track and ground won’t worry him as a course and distance winner on fast ground.
Papa Cocktail is the obvious danger. Won the last two, looks in exceptional form and achieved strong speed ratings. On the other hand he went up another 7lb and may not get the fast pace he needs to be seen to best effect today.
Hence I’m prepared to back SOM, despite skinny enough odds in this race.
10pts win – Straits Of Moyle @ 5/2